Realized P&L
-$4.26K
Unrealized P&L
-$7.28K
Hit rate
38.1%
Resolved
9
Trades
2,960
lifetime
Volume
$1.20M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$407
Open exposure
$75.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-16
last 07-22 00:15
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Other
45%
—
—
Politics
40%
50%
$-4,301
Crypto
9%
100%
+$38
Tech
5%
—
—
Sports
2%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
77 active days in 12wk
• peak 114 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +46,669 | $38,989 | 72¢ | $33.8K | $-5,154 | 07-17 16:02 | |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +8,232 | $7,708 | 90¢ | $7.4K | $-340 | 07-16 09:13 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | No | +6,000 | $4,950 | 78¢ | $4.7K | $-300 | 07-17 09:01 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +5,000 | $4,435 | 86¢ | $4.3K | $-110 | 07-11 23:24 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -5,000 | $-3,950 | 84¢ | $-4225 | $-275 | 07-03 17:47 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -4,000 | $-2,160 | 80¢ | $-3180 | $-1,020 | 06-30 14:22 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +3,000 | $2,610 | 92¢ | $2.7K | +$135 | 07-01 12:27 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | +3,000 | $2,565 | 86¢ | $2.6K | +$30 | 07-12 22:40 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | +1,976 | $1,658 | 88¢ | $1.7K | +$71 | 07-16 08:02 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,633 | $1,336 | 82¢ | $1.3K | $-5 | 07-21 02:54 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -1,000 | $-920 | 97¢ | $-967 | $-47 | 06-04 01:45 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,000 | $875 | 92¢ | $915 | +$40 | 07-12 18:19 | |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | +1,000 | $810 | 82¢ | $825 | +$15 | 07-15 15:31 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -728 | $-621 | 94¢ | $-688 | $-66 | 06-01 18:53 | |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | +842 | $594 | 80¢ | $669 | +$76 | 07-21 05:13 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | -1,000 | $-140 | 58¢ | $-577 | $-437 | 06-05 14:14 | |
| GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? | No | +500 | $450 | 96¢ | $482 | +$32 | 07-16 10:38 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | +500 | $481 | 96¢ | $479 | $-2 | 07-14 10:48 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +500 | $465 | 92¢ | $462 | $-2 | 07-14 13:35 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +500 | $385 | 90¢ | $448 | +$62 | 07-20 00:32 | |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | +500 | $450 | 88¢ | $438 | $-12 | 06-28 16:14 | |
| Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | +500 | $433 | 86¢ | $427 | $-6 | 07-20 15:08 | |
| GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | +500 | $390 | 76¢ | $380 | $-10 | 05-31 03:05 | |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | +418 | $332 | 86¢ | $359 | +$28 | 07-18 10:28 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +1,000 | $440 | 36¢ | $355 | $-85 | 06-25 16:51 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | +500 | $314 | 70¢ | $353 | +$39 | 07-17 20:47 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | +250 | $225 | 94¢ | $236 | +$11 | 07-17 17:03 | |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | +248 | $152 | 88¢ | $217 | +$65 | 07-21 16:32 | |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? | No | +200 | $184 | 93¢ | $186 | +$2 | 07-11 14:37 | |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? | No | -229 | $-169 | 80¢ | $-182 | $-13 | 06-17 21:33 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | 49 | $59.9K | 35,773 | 25,773 | +10,000 | open | — | 06-12 23:35 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 64 | $58.6K | 57,916 | 11,247 | +46,669 | open | — | 07-17 16:02 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | 58 | $51.8K | 27,740 | 25,542 | +2,198 | open | — | 06-13 10:23 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 35 | $48.8K | 47,542 | 17,625 | +29,917 | open | — | 06-15 14:41 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 107 | $44.5K | 27,689 | 21,244 | +6,445 | open | — | 06-27 12:13 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 55 | $37.6K | 32,314 | 15,304 | +17,010 | open | — | 05-29 02:50 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 19 | $35.9K | 24,500 | 17,498 | +7,002 | open | — | 05-30 20:05 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 28 | $31.8K | 18,004 | 18,004 | +0 | open | — | 05-04 08:20 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | 17 | $29.7K | 27,408 | 7,500 | +19,908 | open | — | 06-02 08:43 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 38 | $29.6K | 17,728 | 15,372 | +2,356 | open | — | 06-17 16:18 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | 40 | $28.3K | 19,795 | 10,212 | +9,583 | open | — | 06-17 17:26 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | 78 | $25.4K | 13,265 | 12,809 | +456 | open | — | 06-29 02:26 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | 26 | $22.6K | 23,998 | 0 | +23,998 | open | — | 06-12 07:10 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15 | 11 | $16.9K | 10,313 | 7,000 | +3,313 | open | — | 06-08 16:19 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 40 | $15.9K | 10,007 | 14,811 | -4,803 | open | — | 06-01 14:56 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 13 | $15.2K | 7,849 | 7,849 | +0 | open | — | 05-30 03:20 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 37 | $14.8K | 11,129 | 9,159 | +1,970 | open | — | 06-16 08:24 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 14 | $14.6K | 8,500 | 8,000 | +500 | open | — | 07-20 00:32 |
| Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? | 18 | $14.5K | 8,000 | 8,000 | +0 | open | — | 05-09 15:48 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | 3 | $14.4K | 10,000 | 5,000 | +5,000 | open | — | 06-17 20:59 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? | 7 | $14.1K | 15,000 | 0 | +15,000 | open | — | 06-02 19:08 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | 76 | $13.1K | 11,441 | 3,208 | +8,232 | open | — | 07-16 09:13 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | 45 | $13.0K | 8,572 | 8,307 | +264 | open | — | 06-17 17:19 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | 18 | $11.7K | 12,000 | 0 | +12,000 | open | — | 06-12 08:39 |
| over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654 | 17 | $11.4K | 6,186 | 6,186 | +0 | open | — | 07-17 17:00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | 17 | $11.2K | 5,000 | 10,000 | -5,000 | open | — | 07-03 17:47 |
| will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328 | 8 | $10.8K | 20,000 | 0 | +20,000 | open | — | 07-17 00:26 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | 25 | $10.8K | 570 | 10,470 | -9,900 | open | — | 06-17 04:34 |
| will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30 | 13 | $10.1K | 5,894 | 4,394 | +1,500 | open | — | 06-29 21:21 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | 4 | $9.6K | 5,377 | 5,377 | +0 | open | — | 05-18 12:46 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||