Small-Blowhole — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.26K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

38.1%

Resolved

Trades

3,329

lifetime

Volume

$1.30M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$390

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 08-11 12:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

45% — —

Politics

40% 50% $-4,301

Crypto

9% 100% +$38

Tech

4% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 114 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	49	$59.9K	35,773	25,773	+10,000	open	—	06-12 23:35
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	64	$58.6K	57,916	11,247	+46,669	open	—	07-17 16:02
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	58	$51.8K	27,740	25,542	+2,198	open	—	06-13 10:23
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	35	$48.8K	47,542	17,625	+29,917	open	—	06-15 14:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	107	$44.5K	27,689	21,244	+6,445	open	—	06-27 12:13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	55	$37.6K	32,314	15,304	+17,010	open	—	05-29 02:50
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	19	$35.9K	24,500	17,498	+7,002	open	—	05-30 20:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	28	$31.8K	18,004	18,004	+0	open	—	05-04 08:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	17	$29.7K	27,408	7,500	+19,908	open	—	06-02 08:43
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	38	$29.6K	17,728	15,372	+2,356	open	—	06-17 16:18
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	40	$28.3K	19,795	10,212	+9,583	open	—	06-17 17:26
Iran leadership change by June 30?	78	$25.4K	13,265	12,809	+456	open	—	06-29 02:26
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	26	$22.6K	23,998	0	+23,998	open	—	06-12 07:10
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	77	$20.3K	11,441	11,458	-17	open	—	07-23 06:08
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	37	$19.0K	17,676	7,585	+10,092	open	—	08-11 13:29
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	11	$16.9K	10,313	7,000	+3,313	open	—	06-08 16:19
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	40	$15.9K	10,007	14,811	-4,803	open	—	06-01 14:56
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	13	$15.2K	7,849	7,849	+0	open	—	05-30 03:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	37	$14.8K	11,129	9,159	+1,970	open	—	06-16 08:24
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	14	$14.6K	8,500	8,000	+500	open	—	07-20 00:32
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	18	$14.5K	8,000	8,000	+0	open	—	05-09 15:48
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	3	$14.4K	10,000	5,000	+5,000	open	—	06-17 20:59
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	7	$14.1K	15,000	0	+15,000	open	—	06-02 19:08
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	45	$13.0K	8,572	8,307	+264	open	—	06-17 17:19
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	18	$11.7K	12,000	0	+12,000	open	—	06-12 08:39
over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	17	$11.4K	6,186	6,186	+0	open	—	07-17 17:00
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	17	$11.2K	5,000	10,000	-5,000	open	—	07-03 17:47
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	8	$10.8K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	07-17 00:26
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	25	$10.8K	570	10,470	-9,900	open	—	06-17 04:34
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	4	$10.3K	7,000	6,000	+1,000	open	—	08-11 06:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 13:29:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x18755d…
08-11 13:20:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	6	94¢	$6	0x80b1a4…
08-11 12:46:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0x9ac356…
08-11 12:46:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	966	94¢	$908	0x0f6c73…
08-11 11:12:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	Yes	SELL	200	58¢	$116	0x005ec2…
08-11 08:08:15	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	23¢	$460	0xa3c1c6…
08-11 08:08:15	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	24¢	$480	0x286474…
08-11 07:41:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x6a65b6…
08-11 06:47:40	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	1,000	89¢	$890	0x1e8d8d…
08-11 06:44:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	Yes	BUY	200	57¢	$114	0x900f18…
08-10 17:11:25	Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	76¢	$11	0xdf1754…
08-10 17:09:40	Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	500	80¢	$400	0x5a9a72…
08-09 17:23:39	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	19¢	$380	0x8aec47…
08-09 12:33:48	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	749	20¢	$150	0xf0a88d…
08-09 08:26:24	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x3b0a17…
08-09 07:51:01	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x187112…
08-09 00:50:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	849	56¢	$476	0xa061b1…
08-09 00:29:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x92c761…
08-08 23:13:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xcf1a90…
08-08 23:02:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	34	56¢	$19	0xa0a49a…
08-08 23:02:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	17	56¢	$10	0x860998…
08-08 23:02:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	24	56¢	$13	0x7d3ed0…
08-08 23:01:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	196	56¢	$110	0xa20e17…
08-08 23:01:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0xb62452…
08-08 23:01:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0xcda1ba…
08-08 23:01:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x53635b…
08-08 23:01:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	839	56¢	$470	0xa3a71e…
08-08 23:01:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x7e47da…
08-08 13:59:42	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	20¢	$3	0x20769e…
08-08 10:41:13	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x725f7d…
08-08 10:32:55	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	96	73¢	$70	0x9dd4bc…
08-08 10:29:31	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	98	73¢	$72	0xc2e305…
08-08 10:13:43	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	82	73¢	$60	0xded759…
08-08 09:54:19	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0x0cf420…
08-08 07:20:46	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0xcbe4ca…
08-08 05:30:51	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xb70549…
08-08 04:47:30	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	179	5¢	$9	0x56c7a8…
08-08 04:09:45	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	4	9¢	$0	0xc8879a…
08-08 04:01:03	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	400	9¢	$36	0x3d691d…
08-08 03:56:27	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0xdbf234…
08-08 03:25:18	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	BUY	1,000	89¢	$890	0x3af48c…
08-08 03:22:40	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x7106d9…
08-08 03:20:33	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x43d852…
08-08 03:18:58	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x94c712…
08-08 03:11:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	632	20¢	$126	0x56cac9…
08-08 03:11:54	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x6b7b6a…
08-08 03:11:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	200	79¢	$158	0x16881f…
08-08 03:11:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	378	20¢	$76	0x16881f…
08-08 03:05:43	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xe1f1e8…
08-08 03:05:43	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x14c230…
08-08 03:05:43	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x066914…
08-08 03:05:36	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x30a8fd…
08-08 03:05:34	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x2ed384…
08-08 03:02:10	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x95aa50…
08-08 02:53:40	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x3ce6a4…
08-08 02:53:18	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x9a5131…
08-08 02:53:13	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xf36d53…
08-08 02:50:10	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x4d11aa…
08-08 02:39:58	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0xa00ebb…
08-08 02:37:52	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xac46e9…
08-08 02:26:55	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x5d84c1…
08-08 01:58:21	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	143	9¢	$13	0x41bb27…
08-08 01:51:54	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xe9ac11…
08-08 01:11:58	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	187	73¢	$137	0x11c7c5…
08-08 01:07:45	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	8	9¢	$1	0x0c4159…
08-08 00:56:03	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xe14b1c…
08-08 00:24:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	Yes	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0xad87af…
08-07 21:01:45	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,104	15¢	$316	0x9b11fe…
08-07 20:07:42	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x49aeea…
08-07 19:09:34	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x205b13…
08-07 19:07:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	2,000	85¢	$1,700	0xebe1cf…
08-07 18:14:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0x46133a…
08-07 18:13:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	9	85¢	$8	0x037a46…
08-07 18:13:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	619	85¢	$526	0xf4e89d…
08-07 18:13:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	36	85¢	$31	0xc4e98f…
08-07 18:11:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x793c65…
08-07 18:08:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	10	85¢	$9	0xfaf81e…
08-07 17:29:15	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	17	9¢	$1	0x0bd830…
08-07 16:20:45	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	14	9¢	$1	0xebd58c…
08-07 16:05:10	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x865825…
08-07 15:10:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	831	9¢	$77	0xffb23c…
08-07 15:07:31	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x24ba19…
08-07 15:03:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	169	9¢	$16	0x7c17aa…
08-07 14:50:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	1,000	9¢	$92	0xfc9157…
08-07 14:25:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	58¢	$1,160	0xe215c5…
08-07 14:09:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	58¢	$1,160	0x2d9459…
08-07 14:05:54	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xcca3c5…
08-07 13:20:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	543	90¢	$489	0x2d5904…
08-07 13:14:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	1,200	90¢	$1,080	0xb78a31…
08-07 12:59:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0xa75d27…
08-07 12:50:54	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0x6c061c…
08-07 12:31:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x355572…
08-07 11:50:16	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xaba16f…
08-07 11:50:13	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0x4bc9da…
08-07 11:40:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x8c8d4a…
08-07 11:36:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x03f7b7…
08-07 11:35:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x27f6bf…
08-07 11:34:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x71b6ca…
08-07 11:32:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0xa42d5e…
08-07 11:29:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x788cd8…