Ignorant-Beneficiary-Warren — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$97.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.36K

Hit rate

61.5%

Resolved

4,175

Trades

70,778

lifetime

Volume

$1.10M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$1.04K

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-03

last 10-17 12:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 83 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 54% +$93,117

Other

2% 72% +$4,766

Sports

1% 45% -$51

Politics

0% 100% +$6

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 301 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	+2,774	$1,467	26¢	$707	-$759	07-10 22:25
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	+2,696	$937	12¢	$310	-$627	05-21 01:22
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	+10	$10	99¢	$10	+$0	06-18 00:38
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	+10	$2	58¢	$6	+$3	06-09 08:57
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	+4	-$23	97¢	$4	+$27	06-22 01:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	72	$8.3K	5,150	5,450	-300	Team Falcons	+$1,450	05-26 16:18
cs2 vit fut 2026 06 11	41	$6.5K	4,307	3,230	+1,077	Vitality	+$820	06-11 14:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	68	$3.0K	1,800	1,767	+33	Down	+$535	05-27 05:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	83	$2.8K	4,408	0	+4,408	Up	+$326	06-12 00:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	80	$2.6K	2,300	2,300	+0	Down	-$9	05-23 07:52
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-18 02:00 UTC	63	$2.2K	6,641	0	+6,641	Up	+$1,501	06-18 02:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	70	$2.2K	4,646	0	+4,646	Up	+$1,322	05-29 02:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	115	$2.2K	3,558	0	+3,558	Up	+$35	05-30 05:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	105	$2.1K	3,033	1,000	+2,033	Up	-$1,016	05-30 03:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	117	$2.1K	1,482	1,482	+0	Up	+$641	05-30 18:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 09:35 UTC	75	$2.1K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	-$2,083	06-11 09:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 01:50 UTC	65	$2.0K	4,400	0	+4,400	Down	-$393	06-30 01:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	81	$1.9K	1,241	1,096	+145	Down	+$296	05-20 22:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	72	$1.8K	1,100	1,100	+0	Down	+$374	05-24 10:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 05:05 UTC	130	$1.8K	3,300	0	+3,300	Up	-$368	07-03 05:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	26	$1.7K	2,500	2,500	+0	Down	-$1,443	05-19 13:19
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	24	$1.7K	3,001	227	+2,774	open	—	07-10 22:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 06:20 UTC	79	$1.7K	3,217	0	+3,217	Up	+$647	06-16 06:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	101	$1.6K	4,183	0	+4,183	Up	+$1,140	05-19 14:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	77	$1.6K	2,642	0	+2,642	Up	+$415	05-30 09:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	43	$1.6K	1,356	1,017	+339	Up	+$461	05-31 15:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	63	$1.6K	1,039	1,039	+0	Up	+$431	05-30 18:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 04:05 UTC	107	$1.6K	3,700	0	+3,700	Up	+$1,094	07-01 04:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	68	$1.6K	3,343	300	+3,043	Down	+$1,064	05-23 02:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 10:25 UTC	159	$1.6K	4,304	0	+4,304	Up	+$951	06-11 10:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	69	$1.6K	1,428	714	+714	Down	+$440	05-24 06:58
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	50	$1.6K	2,520	690	+1,830	PARIVISION	+$1,451	05-27 14:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	207	$1.6K	3,799	0	+3,799	Up	+$1,137	05-16 07:35
bitcoin up or down june 8 2026 9am et	14	$1.6K	950	950	+0	Down	+$67	06-08 13:55
nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	24	$1.5K	2,172	2,100	+72	Knicks	-$100	06-11 03:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-17 12:08:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 12:05 UTC	Up	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0x82208b…
10-17 12:07:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 12:05 UTC	Down	BUY	400	93¢	$372	0x401ac7…
10-17 12:07:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 12:05 UTC	Up	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0xfa0c5a…
09-15 05:44:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xcfc46b…
09-15 05:44:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	189	83¢	$158	0xc0ecf8…
09-15 05:44:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xadfd26…
09-15 05:44:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0x7b41a0…
09-15 05:44:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	295	13¢	$37	0x478018…
09-15 05:44:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	0	15¢	$0	0xd9f5db…
09-15 04:56:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 04:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1,000	8¢	$81	0xf89f3f…
09-15 04:43:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	167	50¢	$84	0x2b4906…
09-15 04:43:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xb83cb5…
09-15 04:43:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	23	50¢	$11	0x1e530c…
09-15 02:28:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0xde9a86…
09-15 02:28:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	200	19¢	$38	0xe77891…
09-15 02:26:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xdf9007…
09-15 02:26:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xc4d90c…
09-15 02:26:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x402601…
09-15 02:26:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	84	36¢	$30	0x9dabb7…
09-15 02:25:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x245d74…
09-15 02:24:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0xaedcb7…
09-15 02:24:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x4a5862…
09-15 02:24:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xdbd23e…
09-15 02:19:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	37	69¢	$26	0xc98e86…
09-15 02:18:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xb8ccb0…
09-15 02:15:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0x4b92ae…
09-12 09:58:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	300	82¢	$246	0x6bf86e…
09-12 09:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	44	79¢	$35	0xe7a7f6…
09-12 09:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	56	79¢	$44	0x01d520…
09-12 09:57:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	281	36¢	$101	0xd2a767…
09-12 09:57:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x70ad01…
09-12 09:57:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xdeb388…
09-12 09:57:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x353112…
09-12 09:57:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x406bbe…
09-12 09:57:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	89	36¢	$32	0xd4aff5…
09-12 09:57:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x6fa41b…
09-12 09:57:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x5ba5c9…
09-12 09:57:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x03d8fd…
09-12 09:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0xca92e3…
09-12 09:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0xc746d7…
09-12 09:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x980be9…
09-12 09:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0x81b822…
09-12 09:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0x76981d…
09-12 09:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0x461e12…
09-12 09:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	28	68¢	$19	0x3ca6db…
09-12 09:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	31	68¢	$21	0x377933…
09-12 09:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x1d75f2…
09-12 09:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$6	0xfa1d73…
09-12 09:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0xa17b12…
09-12 09:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	68	66¢	$45	0xfedfe0…
09-12 09:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	56	66¢	$37	0xfbff42…
09-12 09:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xe5fc69…
09-12 09:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	66¢	$9	0xa61acb…
09-12 09:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	18	66¢	$12	0xa5e7f4…
09-12 09:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	58	66¢	$38	0x97902b…
09-12 09:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x88ba8e…
09-12 09:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	18	66¢	$12	0x67f1f0…
09-12 09:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	66¢	$7	0x3daa27…
09-12 09:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	66¢	$4	0x3b8d6c…
09-12 09:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x2c02de…
09-12 09:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	18	66¢	$12	0x2bae34…
09-12 09:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x1954bd…
09-12 09:43:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	18	66¢	$12	0xaeb527…
09-12 09:43:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x85257b…
09-12 09:43:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x7b3e1d…
09-12 09:43:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	400	42¢	$166	0x59c80f…
09-12 09:43:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	300	56¢	$168	0xc5cf48…
09-12 09:14:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	200	30¢	$61	0x9dffa9…
09-12 08:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xa9fa55…
09-12 08:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	18	3¢	$1	0x718525…
09-12 08:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0x53dcd3…
09-12 08:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x9cb6e9…
09-12 08:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xe426b6…
09-12 08:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x5173e1…
09-12 08:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x463d6e…
09-12 08:28:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x8cae73…
09-12 08:28:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x1be3d7…
09-12 08:28:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x0e4b35…
09-12 08:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xd503ca…
09-12 08:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	26	3¢	$1	0x4a8877…
09-12 08:28:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	80	3¢	$2	0x59e8e6…
09-12 08:28:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	80	3¢	$2	0x381481…
09-12 08:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	26	3¢	$1	0x8c19db…
09-12 08:14:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	399	22¢	$88	0x265253…
09-12 08:14:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x1dff88…
09-12 08:14:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0x48a308…
09-12 07:57:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	300	32¢	$96	0x34be81…
09-12 07:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	27	33¢	$9	0x9252b9…
09-12 07:56:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0xaae6cf…
09-12 07:56:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0x1ddcbf…
09-12 07:56:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0xfbc94d…
09-12 07:56:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	174	33¢	$57	0xd0e56c…
09-12 07:56:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	40	33¢	$13	0x65375a…
09-12 07:56:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0x1970e0…
09-12 06:11:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	400	69¢	$276	0x16ce12…
09-12 05:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0xca8800…
09-12 05:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0xc3d5a8…
09-12 05:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0xbc6acc…
09-12 05:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0xb9289e…
09-12 05:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	21	59¢	$12	0x8dda72…