Unfolded-Parka — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.57K

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

55.0%

Resolved

160

Trades

1,205

lifetime

Volume

$198.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$165

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-18

last 10-05 11:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 74 days

Categories

Politics

60% 39% -$292

Crypto

31% 54% +$278

Other

8% 30% -$1,502

Tech

0% 0% -$126

Sports

0% 100% +$77

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes		+16	$5	27¢	$4	-$1	10-05 11:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	25	$15.7K	9,197	9,197	+0	Yes	-$5	05-01 22:39
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	17	$10.6K	5,479	5,479	+0	No	+$91	03-31 16:43
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	30	$10.6K	7,878	6,600	+1,278	Yes	-$196	04-30 11:59
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	10	$7.9K	6,065	2,392	+3,673	No	+$202	04-01 19:57
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	7	$7.0K	3,604	3,604	+0	Yes	-$74	04-06 07:00
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	17	$7.0K	5,093	5,093	+0	No	+$144	05-01 09:20
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?	15	$6.7K	3,606	3,606	+0	No	+$162	05-05 20:00
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	21	$6.5K	4,126	4,126	+0	No	-$23	04-22 01:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	16	$5.7K	6,582	6,582	+0	Yes	-$596	05-22 09:10
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$5.6K	3,011	3,011	+0	Yes	+$30	04-03 11:51
bitcoin above 70k on april 6	5	$5.5K	2,808	2,802	+6	No	+$52	04-06 16:09
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	10	$5.3K	3,172	2,186	+986	No	+$4	04-08 04:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	13	$4.0K	2,486	2,486	+0	No	+$125	04-29 05:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	35	$3.9K	6,311	6,311	+0	No	-$471	06-18 11:25
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	14	$3.8K	2,095	2,095	+0	Yes	+$274	05-05 14:54
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	15	$3.7K	2,221	2,221	+0	Yes	+$408	06-21 13:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	65	$3.7K	4,547	4,547	+0	No	-$126	05-28 02:06
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$3.6K	1,933	1,933	+0	No	+$9	04-23 18:01
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	5	$3.5K	1,803	1,803	+0	No	+$30	04-23 09:03
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 29?	3	$3.2K	1,607	1,607	+0	No	+$57	04-29 16:06
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	10	$2.9K	4,483	1,983	+2,500	No	-$136	06-03 07:49
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	10	$2.8K	2,645	2,645	+0	No	-$5	05-28 02:05
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	35	$2.6K	3,529	3,529	+0	No	-$175	07-01 22:08
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	10	$2.5K	1,747	1,739	+9	No	-$189	04-22 16:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	6	$2.5K	1,569	1,569	+0	No	+$6	05-08 23:58
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	10	$2.3K	1,770	1,670	+100	No	+$21	05-01 05:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	24	$2.2K	4,221	4,221	+0	No	-$182	05-24 23:54
bitcoin above 72k on april 9	14	$2.1K	2,730	1,815	+916	Yes	-$503	04-09 15:51
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	27	$2.1K	1,776	1,776	+0	Yes	+$28	05-18 13:04
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	8	$1.9K	1,582	1,269	+313	No	+$16	05-29 00:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 11:43:08	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0xa437ca…
09-10 01:29:13	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	SELL	23	25¢	$6	0x5cf621…
09-09 12:21:22	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	BUY	23	40¢	$9	0xa5ae6f…
09-08 15:45:36	BNB Up or Down on September 8?	Up	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x41bd85…
09-08 13:26:51	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	700	48¢	$335	0x9d7f11…
09-08 12:44:00	BNB Up or Down on September 8?	Up	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x050cd6…
08-13 03:48:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	160	4¢	$6	0x6c9f66…
08-07 02:25:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x4e24af…
08-07 02:23:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xcbb1d9…
08-07 02:21:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	23	57¢	$13	0xe8d2dc…
08-07 02:19:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x9d7172…
08-07 02:04:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xa9d280…
08-07 02:01:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x8ed9bb…
08-07 02:01:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x483b9f…
08-07 01:57:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x0b40ce…
08-07 01:56:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xfec18f…
08-06 19:05:59	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	145	63¢	$91	0x9960dc…
08-06 05:17:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	127	62¢	$79	0x7a2e94…
08-06 05:17:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xec6101…
08-06 05:17:02	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0x478d3a…
08-06 01:07:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	270	33¢	$90	0x4fc0d3…
08-04 11:01:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	270	26¢	$71	0x62682a…
08-04 10:59:50	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	150	50¢	$75	0xd4e072…
07-14 05:29:55	Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0x63a7ec…
07-14 05:14:22	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	280	4¢	$10	0x79a540…
07-12 02:36:25	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	280	10¢	$29	0xe4e095…
07-12 02:24:40	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	61¢	$30	0xc53694…
07-10 04:57:22	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	80	83¢	$66	0x026893…
07-09 15:19:50	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xa4b148…
07-09 14:01:20	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	33	83¢	$28	0x2d6ea0…
07-09 12:23:38	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	123	82¢	$101	0x4b8ae6…
07-08 03:37:05	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	SELL	300	1¢	$4	0x1433d9…
07-06 17:21:44	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	900	63¢	$567	0xe7856c…
07-01 22:08:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	470	14¢	$66	0x4ba622…
07-01 09:33:13	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	724	29¢	$210	0xd95666…
07-01 05:40:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	34	25¢	$9	0xe981c5…
07-01 04:59:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	59	25¢	$15	0x458777…
07-01 04:50:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x215a4b…
07-01 04:49:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	105	25¢	$26	0xd36606…
07-01 03:00:08	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	153	7¢	$10	0x7ff7e1…
06-30 16:53:44	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	315	5¢	$16	0x109a2f…
06-30 13:15:11	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	10¢	$1	0xadb61e…
06-30 13:15:11	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x50cfd8…
06-30 12:43:41	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	10¢	$0	0x521b39…
06-30 12:42:16	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x695b60…
06-30 12:37:37	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x49d6a9…
06-30 12:22:38	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x76bc1f…
06-30 09:20:02	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x9ebf22…
06-30 09:15:38	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x4b2c12…
06-29 15:36:07	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	10¢	$3	0x86f46a…
06-29 15:25:13	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x3ec5d0…
06-29 13:55:07	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	71	10¢	$7	0xf5dd4d…
06-29 12:29:14	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xf92e31…
06-29 12:25:07	bnb up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	166	34¢	$56	0x913531…
06-29 12:25:07	bnb up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	24	34¢	$8	0x63584d…
06-29 12:25:07	bnb up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0x100404…
06-29 12:12:26	bnb up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	131	32¢	$42	0xb6dda0…
06-29 12:12:26	bnb up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	67	32¢	$21	0x0a2c47…
06-29 12:12:20	bnb up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0xbb5b85…
06-28 23:07:44	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	3	12¢	$0	0x163153…
06-28 22:49:37	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	44	12¢	$5	0x5fdcbf…
06-28 15:51:29	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	110	15¢	$16	0x8f6503…
06-28 15:51:29	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	75	15¢	$11	0x4a988c…
06-28 15:44:32	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0xa8d9c1…
06-28 15:38:11	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x7cfb69…
06-28 08:41:44	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0xa3360f…
06-28 08:39:43	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0x1cca7a…
06-28 07:11:37	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	SELL	411	52¢	$214	0x05471f…
06-28 05:47:13	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	No	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0x27945e…
06-28 00:20:14	Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	SELL	208	24¢	$50	0xdff00c…
06-28 00:10:22	Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	208	24¢	$50	0x89a6da…
06-27 18:27:47	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	288	12¢	$35	0x8d5b88…
06-27 15:31:46	Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 77m?	No	SELL	135	72¢	$97	0x3ff964…
06-27 14:43:55	Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 77m?	No	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x58f9de…
06-27 14:35:20	Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?	No	SELL	172	58¢	$100	0x1fd52c…
06-27 14:18:58	Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?	No	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0xd65ca8…
06-27 11:30:29	fda approves viridian therapeutics veligrotug 06 30 2026	No	SELL	954	1¢	$10	0xdeea0b…
06-27 02:02:16	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	724	29¢	$210	0x144d72…
06-27 00:34:43	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	BUY	411	51¢	$210	0x2b00c5…
06-27 00:22:19	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,272	23¢	$523	0xb2df68…
06-26 22:10:10	fda approves viridian therapeutics veligrotug 06 30 2026	No	BUY	954	22¢	$210	0x7eaf01…
06-26 20:29:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	663	18¢	$119	0x5e52c2…
06-26 20:29:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	503	18¢	$91	0xc394a9…
06-26 20:29:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	1,166	18¢	$210	0x74f777…
06-26 18:40:49	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0xcec4db…
06-26 18:40:26	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	179	12¢	$21	0xbaa63f…
06-26 18:27:31	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,272	22¢	$500	0xfa3303…
06-26 17:55:34	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	80	12¢	$9	0x783316…
06-26 13:01:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	30	42¢	$13	0x9558f8…
06-26 12:52:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	500	42¢	$210	0x90dfa7…
06-26 12:50:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	435	42¢	$183	0x71f496…
06-26 11:15:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	30	64¢	$19	0xf5dc82…
06-26 11:15:50	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	No	SELL	66	51¢	$34	0x636866…
06-26 10:53:13	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	No	BUY	66	52¢	$34	0x812337…
06-26 10:02:04	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	12¢	$116	0xdf4203…
06-26 09:56:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	46	65¢	$30	0x308f34…
06-26 09:56:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	41	65¢	$27	0x83bc66…
06-26 09:55:11	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	30	65¢	$20	0x4010f3…
06-26 08:44:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0xe0e9ab…
06-26 08:37:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0xccfdf4…