Unfolded-Parka — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$443

Unrealized P&L

+$316

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

967

lifetime

Volume

$179.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$186

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-18

last 07-01 09:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

60% 100% +$6

Crypto

34% 100% +$437

Other

6% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes		-2,056	$-323	0¢	$-7	+$316	06-18 11:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	25	$15.7K	9,197	9,197	+0	open	—	05-01 22:39
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	17	$10.6K	5,479	5,479	+0	open	—	03-31 16:43
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	30	$10.6K	7,878	6,600	+1,278	open	—	04-30 11:59
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	10	$7.9K	6,065	2,392	+3,673	open	—	04-01 19:57
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	7	$7.0K	3,604	3,604	+0	open	—	04-06 07:00
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	17	$7.0K	5,093	5,093	+0	open	—	05-01 09:20
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?	15	$6.7K	3,606	3,606	+0	No	+$162	05-05 20:00
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	21	$6.5K	4,126	4,126	+0	open	—	04-22 01:54
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$5.6K	3,011	3,011	+0	open	—	04-03 11:51
bitcoin above 70k on april 6	5	$5.5K	2,808	2,802	+6	open	—	04-06 16:09
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	10	$5.3K	3,172	2,186	+986	open	—	04-08 04:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	13	$4.0K	2,486	2,486	+0	open	—	04-29 05:26
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	14	$3.8K	2,095	2,095	+0	Yes	+$274	05-05 14:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	63	$3.7K	4,272	4,547	-274	open	—	05-28 02:06
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$3.6K	1,933	1,933	+0	open	—	04-23 18:01
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	5	$3.5K	1,803	1,803	+0	open	—	04-23 09:03
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 29?	3	$3.2K	1,607	1,607	+0	open	—	04-29 16:06
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	10	$2.9K	4,483	1,983	+2,500	open	—	06-03 07:49
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	9	$2.8K	2,645	2,610	+36	open	—	05-28 02:05
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	10	$2.5K	1,747	1,739	+9	open	—	04-22 16:23
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	34	$2.5K	3,529	3,059	+470	open	—	06-26 13:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	6	$2.5K	1,569	1,569	+0	No	+$6	05-08 23:58
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	10	$2.3K	1,770	1,670	+100	open	—	05-01 05:09
bitcoin above 72k on april 9	14	$2.1K	2,730	1,815	+916	open	—	04-09 15:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	23	$1.9K	3,321	4,221	-900	open	—	05-24 23:54
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	6	$1.9K	1,582	1,180	+402	open	—	05-29 00:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	24	$1.9K	3,038	5,094	-2,056	open	—	06-18 11:25
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	5	$1.8K	963	963	+0	open	—	03-31 13:52
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	26	$1.8K	1,333	1,776	-442	open	—	05-18 13:04
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	4	$1.8K	1,628	401	+1,227	open	—	03-23 09:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 09:33:13	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	724	29¢	$210	0xd95666…
07-01 05:40:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	34	25¢	$9	0xe981c5…
07-01 04:59:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	59	25¢	$15	0x458777…
07-01 04:50:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x215a4b…
07-01 04:49:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	105	25¢	$26	0xd36606…
07-01 03:00:08	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	153	7¢	$10	0x7ff7e1…
06-30 13:15:11	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	10¢	$1	0xadb61e…
06-30 13:15:11	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x50cfd8…
06-30 12:43:41	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	10¢	$0	0x521b39…
06-30 12:42:16	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x695b60…
06-30 12:37:37	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x49d6a9…
06-30 12:22:38	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x76bc1f…
06-30 09:20:02	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x9ebf22…
06-30 09:15:38	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x4b2c12…
06-29 15:36:07	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	10¢	$3	0x86f46a…
06-29 15:25:13	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x3ec5d0…
06-29 13:55:07	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	71	10¢	$7	0xf5dd4d…
06-29 12:29:14	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xf92e31…
06-29 12:25:07	bnb up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	166	34¢	$56	0x913531…
06-29 12:25:07	bnb up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	24	34¢	$8	0x63584d…
06-29 12:25:07	bnb up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0x100404…
06-29 12:12:26	bnb up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	131	32¢	$42	0xb6dda0…
06-29 12:12:26	bnb up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	67	32¢	$21	0x0a2c47…
06-29 12:12:20	bnb up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0xbb5b85…
06-28 07:11:37	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	SELL	411	52¢	$214	0x05471f…
06-27 18:27:47	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	288	12¢	$35	0x8d5b88…
06-27 11:30:29	fda approves viridian therapeutics veligrotug 06 30 2026	No	SELL	954	1¢	$10	0xdeea0b…
06-27 02:02:16	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	724	29¢	$210	0x144d72…
06-27 00:34:43	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	BUY	411	51¢	$210	0x2b00c5…
06-27 00:22:19	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,272	23¢	$523	0xb2df68…
06-26 22:10:10	fda approves viridian therapeutics veligrotug 06 30 2026	No	BUY	954	22¢	$210	0x7eaf01…
06-26 20:29:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	663	18¢	$119	0x5e52c2…
06-26 20:29:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	503	18¢	$91	0xc394a9…
06-26 20:29:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	1,166	18¢	$210	0x74f777…
06-26 18:40:49	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0xcec4db…
06-26 18:40:26	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	179	12¢	$21	0xbaa63f…
06-26 18:27:31	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,272	22¢	$500	0xfa3303…
06-26 17:55:34	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	80	12¢	$9	0x783316…
06-26 13:01:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	30	42¢	$13	0x9558f8…
06-26 12:52:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	500	42¢	$210	0x90dfa7…
06-26 12:50:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	435	42¢	$183	0x71f496…
06-26 11:15:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	30	64¢	$19	0xf5dc82…
06-26 10:02:04	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	12¢	$116	0xdf4203…
06-26 09:56:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	46	65¢	$30	0x308f34…
06-26 09:56:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	41	65¢	$27	0x83bc66…
06-26 09:55:11	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	30	65¢	$20	0x4010f3…
06-26 08:44:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0xe0e9ab…
06-26 08:37:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0xccfdf4…
06-26 06:00:35	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,040	17¢	$351	0xdb0ab6…
06-25 18:39:32	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	155	50¢	$78	0x6163c3…
06-25 18:23:26	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x59e0bc…
06-25 17:39:35	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x091c9c…
06-25 17:36:46	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xb9fb91…
06-25 16:49:40	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x6dd0a4…
06-25 16:41:22	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xe021a8…
06-25 16:30:32	will bitcoin dip to 58k june 22 28 2026	Yes	SELL	49	51¢	$25	0xf9290c…
06-25 16:27:31	will bitcoin dip to 58k june 22 28 2026	Yes	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0x8caaf3…
06-25 16:26:43	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x32c3bb…
06-25 16:26:08	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xaefe32…
06-25 16:07:28	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xca3919…
06-25 16:02:13	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xf4df8a…
06-25 16:01:47	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x3f849b…
06-25 15:51:31	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x384193…
06-25 15:50:52	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xbdc82d…
06-25 15:49:05	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x8e6dc3…
06-25 15:36:49	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x8edb53…
06-25 15:17:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x9cf736…
06-25 15:17:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	75	38¢	$28	0x81035e…
06-25 15:17:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	89	38¢	$34	0x77dbc2…
06-25 15:17:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	38	38¢	$14	0x3e42da…
06-25 15:17:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x31e84c…
06-25 15:17:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	21	38¢	$8	0x238ecb…
06-25 14:25:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	26	48¢	$12	0xaab5f2…
06-25 14:23:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0x36f120…
06-25 14:20:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	35	48¢	$17	0xfc3809…
06-25 14:20:08	will bitcoin dip to 58k june 22 28 2026	Yes	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x01ca2f…
06-25 14:18:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x60979e…
06-25 14:17:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x88fb0e…
06-25 14:03:10	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	201	50¢	$100	0x9f25e1…
06-25 13:57:55	will bitcoin dip to 58k june 22 28 2026	Yes	SELL	199	90¢	$179	0xcbdfac…
06-25 13:57:43	will bitcoin dip to 58k june 22 28 2026	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x6bc95a…
06-25 13:46:29	will bitcoin dip to 58k june 22 28 2026	Yes	SELL	200	46¢	$92	0x7b45e4…
06-25 13:25:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	261	45¢	$117	0xf4df81…
06-25 13:20:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	192	44¢	$85	0xc6e7bd…
06-25 13:18:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	63	44¢	$28	0xf5b0bf…
06-25 13:17:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	89	44¢	$39	0x9774ee…
06-25 13:17:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	42	44¢	$19	0x3d0236…
06-25 13:17:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	68	43¢	$30	0x368296…
06-25 13:16:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	68	44¢	$30	0x2404bd…
06-25 12:56:31	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	201	53¢	$107	0x956794…
06-25 12:53:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	553	44¢	$243	0xbafe5a…
06-25 12:43:25	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	201	53¢	$107	0x5333b7…
06-25 08:46:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	201	51¢	$103	0x50cb80…
06-25 08:46:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	201	51¢	$103	0x0a56b0…
06-25 05:49:25	wti up or down on june 25 2026	Down	SELL	201	60¢	$121	0xad5216…
06-25 05:47:46	wti up or down on june 25 2026	Down	BUY	201	59¢	$119	0x7fdcb7…
06-25 05:41:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	11	66¢	$7	0xb0adb7…
06-25 05:41:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	190	66¢	$125	0x94fa95…
06-25 05:41:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	201	66¢	$133	0x6270de…
06-25 01:54:59	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	Yes	SELL	114	0¢	$0	0x0d8f98…