Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$873

Unrealized P&L

+$34

Hit rate

73.2%

Resolved

100

Trades

679

lifetime

Volume

$14.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$476

10 positions

First seen

2026-10-06

last 11-03 04:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 51% +$209

Politics

29% 100% +$791

Other

12% 33% -$127

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 130 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+2,500	$250	12¢	$312	+$62	10-19 00:37
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	+100	$35	38¢	$38	+$2	10-31 19:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+300	$36	11¢	$32	-$4	11-03 04:28
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+100	$27	30¢	$30	+$4	10-31 19:33
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+100	$21	20¢	$20	-$2	11-03 03:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	+300	$18	6¢	$18	+$0	11-03 03:44
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+10	$10	93¢	$9	-$1	11-03 04:38
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+10	$8	78¢	$8	+$0	11-03 03:13
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+100	$8	7¢	$7	-$1	11-03 04:40
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+100	$29	2¢	$2	-$27	11-03 04:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	37	$1.5K	17,941	17,941	+0	open	—	10-31 18:51
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	13	$1.4K	2,000	1,990	+10	Yes	+$791	10-25 23:53
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	13	$1.3K	1,749	1,749	+0	open	—	10-31 18:51
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	7	$669	400	400	+0	open	—	10-31 18:42
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	14	$605	1,400	400	+1,000	Yes	+$747	10-29 20:43
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	8	$473	1,490	1,490	+0	open	—	10-31 19:20
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	10	$451	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	10-29 04:00
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	16	$416	1,490	1,490	+0	open	—	10-29 04:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4AM ET	16	$355	250	250	+0	Down	+$100	10-16 08:59
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	7	$332	2,000	2,000	+0	No	-$98	10-31 19:15
Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	4	$316	400	0	+400	open	—	10-31 20:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	8	$313	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	10-17 06:55
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	14	$285	1,020	1,020	+0	No	+$25	10-31 18:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9PM ET	36	$265	205	205	+0	Down	+$12	10-16 01:52
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	4	$265	500	500	+0	No	+$65	10-14 17:15
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	7	$250	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	10-19 00:37
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	8	$227	300	300	+0	open	—	10-29 03:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	12	$212	150	150	+0	Down	+$57	10-27 06:21
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	5	$200	110	100	+10	open	—	11-03 04:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	8	$199	129	129	+0	Up	+$39	10-27 07:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	13	$186	130	130	+0	Down	+$38	10-29 02:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	7	$152	126	126	+0	Down	+$49	10-27 07:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	5	$142	100	100	+0	Down	+$48	10-23 00:02
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	6	$140	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	10-29 02:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9PM ET	3	$138	350	0	+350	Up	-$138	10-19 01:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12AM ET	10	$133	250	0	+250	Down	-$133	10-27 04:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10PM ET	15	$124	70	70	-0	Down	+$13	10-16 02:59
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	5	$122	110	110	+0	open	—	10-29 03:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8PM ET	14	$120	70	70	+0	Up	+$5	10-16 00:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	7	$114	80	80	+0	Down	+$32	10-23 07:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 04:40:27	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xcdfe2c…
11-03 04:39:43	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x352a2e…
11-03 04:38:40	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x93d1bd…
11-03 04:28:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x5d8a44…
11-03 04:27:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0xab2432…
11-03 04:27:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	8	94¢	$8	0x1b0f41…
11-03 04:27:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0x8a3bbe…
11-03 04:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x8b442e…
11-03 04:26:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0xd23ce0…
11-03 04:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x38354b…
11-03 04:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0x3494cd…
11-03 04:12:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	9	21¢	$2	0xe18acc…
11-03 04:09:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x3aec4c…
11-03 04:08:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xa19a37…
11-03 04:08:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x54d7ab…
11-03 04:08:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x19ac04…
11-03 04:08:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x4a4301…
11-03 04:07:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xddd25d…
11-03 04:06:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xb0af52…
11-03 04:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x7508d8…
11-03 04:03:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	15	88¢	$13	0x8fa988…
11-03 04:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	15	79¢	$12	0xd95f2c…
11-03 03:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xe04861…
11-03 03:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x90a381…
11-03 03:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x269764…
11-03 03:55:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xf0f344…
11-03 03:53:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	42	98¢	$41	0x4ff09a…
11-03 03:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x3798ec…
11-03 03:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xf1af73…
11-03 03:51:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0x311c98…
11-03 03:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0xc4ba37…
11-03 03:44:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	300	6¢	$18	0x83873b…
11-03 03:39:12	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x4a7234…
11-03 03:13:07	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x4218ad…
10-31 21:06:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xeda921…
10-31 21:06:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xac95a4…
10-31 21:03:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x2ae7ac…
10-31 21:02:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	15	17¢	$3	0x486b04…
10-31 21:02:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x3c3e7c…
10-31 21:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	25	56¢	$14	0xeff270…
10-31 21:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	75	56¢	$42	0x518d98…
10-31 20:53:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x0312d0…
10-31 20:48:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x2c9f12…
10-31 20:47:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	58¢	$17	0xd473bc…
10-31 20:46:31	Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xd85589…
10-31 20:46:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x33cec6…
10-31 20:44:46	Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x419459…
10-31 20:43:52	Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x7e3064…
10-31 20:41:31	Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xe8c5bb…
10-31 19:33:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	13¢	$12	0x047a90…
10-31 19:33:22	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	27¢	$24	0x25a0ea…
10-31 19:33:04	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	35¢	$31	0x4ba233…
10-31 19:20:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	374	11¢	$41	0x172948…
10-31 19:20:07	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	3¢	$15	0x5a2512…
10-31 19:19:13	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x98fd2f…
10-31 19:18:48	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x9d55d3…
10-31 19:16:10	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	126	12¢	$15	0x2c323f…
10-31 19:15:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$8	0x71c9da…
10-31 18:52:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	600	1¢	$5	0x20dacd…
10-31 18:51:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x5d1eab…
10-31 18:51:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	47¢	$6	0xb963e9…
10-31 18:49:55	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	4¢	$20	0x31008d…
10-31 18:49:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xb188cc…
10-31 18:48:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x029fcc…
10-31 18:48:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xd5062e…
10-31 18:46:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	488	48¢	$234	0xc48711…
10-31 18:42:48	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	80	95¢	$76	0x1de3eb…
10-31 18:42:37	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x2d4bfc…
10-31 18:42:10	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0xe28a52…
10-31 18:41:57	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0xeddb4f…
10-31 18:33:00	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	90	96¢	$86	0x8bc633…
10-31 18:32:40	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xaee734…
10-30 18:05:40	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	65	84¢	$55	0x41d0f6…
10-30 17:46:43	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	35	84¢	$29	0x5e9124…
10-30 17:05:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x1c983d…
10-30 08:26:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0xa52338…
10-30 08:19:46	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	300	84¢	$251	0x382d3c…
10-30 08:18:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x76c308…
10-30 08:18:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	44	11¢	$5	0xbff9c1…
10-30 08:17:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$5	0x07c35a…
10-30 08:17:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	38	10¢	$4	0x81bdbe…
10-30 08:17:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	98	10¢	$10	0xc9b120…
10-30 02:11:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	4¢	$3	0x509db6…
10-30 02:11:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	4¢	$2	0xbc2192…
10-30 02:11:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	299	4¢	$12	0xb388cb…
10-30 02:11:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	239	4¢	$10	0x4a4a69…
10-30 02:10:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0xf5077e…
10-30 02:08:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	5¢	$3	0x68f895…
10-30 02:08:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	5¢	$4	0xb44ae2…
10-30 02:08:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,600	5¢	$82	0xd7020f…
10-30 02:08:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,500	5¢	$76	0x6c2f4e…
10-30 02:07:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	495	49¢	$243	0xd1a080…
10-30 02:06:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xd039e0…
10-30 02:05:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0x759b1f…
10-30 02:04:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	9	58¢	$5	0xc70b46…
10-30 02:04:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	241	57¢	$138	0x08a7ff…
10-29 20:43:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	358	44¢	$157	0xdfc53e…
10-29 20:43:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	42	44¢	$19	0x6a02e8…
10-29 08:02:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3AM ET	Down	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xcc04d2…
10-29 07:52:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x0380b9…