Late-Story — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$248

Unrealized P&L

+$118

Hit rate

89.1%

Resolved

Trades

2,364

lifetime

Volume

$378.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$160

Open exposure

$1.89K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 17:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

69% 50% $-254

Other

26% 100% +$6

Tech

2% — —

Sports

2% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 59 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+1,400	$973	72¢	$1.0K	+$42	07-16 04:19
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	-900	$-881	90¢	$-814	+$67	06-16 07:36
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	-66	$-68	90¢	$-59	+$9	07-20 16:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	116	$52.8K	37,705	37,705	+0	open	—	02-28 06:27
us strikes iran by february 7 2026	8	$18.4K	11,270	7,500	+3,770	open	—	02-07 19:09
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	60	$9.6K	6,252	6,252	+0	open	—	06-09 17:22
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	23	$9.6K	4,914	4,914	+0	open	—	03-08 07:00
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	5	$8.9K	4,753	4,753	+0	open	—	02-07 19:01
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	35	$8.0K	6,032	6,032	+0	open	—	01-27 07:33
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	19	$7.7K	3,538	5,388	-1,850	open	—	02-02 14:55
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	44	$7.1K	3,686	3,908	-222	open	—	04-09 03:36
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	31	$6.2K	4,600	2,800	+1,800	open	—	04-01 08:41
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	29	$5.7K	5,290	4,790	+500	open	—	03-06 08:22
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	24	$5.6K	3,500	3,400	+100	open	—	03-26 02:31
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	31	$5.5K	3,185	3,459	-274	open	—	05-25 23:51
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	3	$5.4K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	02-16 15:44
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	8	$4.4K	3,400	2,000	+1,400	open	—	07-16 04:19
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	29	$4.3K	2,200	2,200	+0	open	—	05-23 03:49
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	16	$3.8K	2,648	2,148	+500	open	—	03-21 15:12
miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	21	$3.8K	2,305	2,005	+300	open	—	03-24 13:52
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	18	$3.7K	2,400	1,900	+500	open	—	04-23 01:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	13	$3.7K	2,359	1,640	+719	open	—	05-19 04:54
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	28	$3.6K	2,100	2,100	+0	open	—	03-24 10:26
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	21	$3.5K	2,475	2,475	+0	open	—	02-15 11:54
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	34	$3.5K	3,322	3,315	+7	open	—	01-21 08:14
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	4	$3.5K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	06-05 02:01
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	9	$3.5K	4,000	1,000	+3,000	open	—	06-02 10:58
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	29	$3.2K	2,200	1,700	+500	open	—	04-20 12:51
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	23	$3.0K	2,100	2,200	-100	open	—	05-24 09:14
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	13	$3.0K	2,100	1,800	+300	open	—	04-22 13:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	8	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-21 15:58
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	37	$2.7K	2,096	2,096	+0	open	—	03-24 15:34
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	13	$2.7K	1,438	1,600	-162	open	—	04-08 06:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 17:20:07	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	200	96¢	$193	0x19dcf9…
07-20 16:11:16	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x8736a3…
07-20 15:58:10	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	500	43¢	$215	0x45c9ec…
07-20 15:44:48	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	500	38¢	$190	0xe61ebe…
07-20 15:44:10	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	200	97¢	$193	0x3227e0…
07-20 01:55:55	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x5e3430…
07-19 14:54:28	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0x49a828…
07-18 18:37:04	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xc0295b…
07-18 17:27:33	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	54	90¢	$48	0xb652ac…
07-17 13:24:18	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xe47e91…
07-16 08:54:10	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x948199…
07-16 04:19:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0x85b912…
07-15 22:20:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x7ddace…
07-15 07:51:13	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x8f78f5…
07-14 20:42:56	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	28	90¢	$25	0x3fa8bd…
07-14 18:11:32	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	39	90¢	$35	0xbc5a06…
07-14 05:32:28	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xcce426…
07-12 02:19:46	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xe2695f…
07-11 21:57:34	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x1a8a8e…
07-11 13:59:32	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x8507e9…
07-09 06:45:41	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	242	95¢	$229	0x48e401…
07-09 05:55:13	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x988b69…
07-09 05:53:58	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	45	95¢	$43	0x95c1cc…
07-08 21:34:20	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	300	86¢	$258	0x5a05f5…
07-06 22:10:43	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0xd77587…
07-06 15:58:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x53a82e…
07-06 15:48:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x8e777d…
07-06 15:48:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x345b0e…
07-06 15:46:44	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x86bf6e…
07-06 15:37:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	335	89¢	$298	0xde913e…
07-06 15:28:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x6b51e7…
07-05 06:33:19	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	No	SELL	22	82¢	$18	0xc9df91…
07-05 06:27:44	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	No	SELL	24	82¢	$20	0x06172b…
07-05 06:13:02	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	No	SELL	0	82¢	$0	0x5a1b1e…
07-05 05:47:46	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	No	BUY	47	81¢	$38	0x22d86c…
07-04 17:35:04	will hyperliquid reach 76 in july	No	BUY	112	52¢	$58	0x391db8…
07-04 13:27:28	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	61	64¢	$39	0x5b7d2d…
07-04 13:26:35	will hyperliquid reach 76 in july	No	BUY	72	52¢	$38	0xc32fbe…
07-04 13:15:14	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0xfd86bd…
07-04 13:15:13	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0x34d3da…
07-04 13:15:01	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0xa2b66c…
07-04 13:14:59	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x0c065e…
07-04 13:14:58	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0x9e7e93…
07-04 13:14:55	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0xd04303…
07-04 13:14:55	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	15	69¢	$10	0x0f5376…
07-04 13:14:53	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	53	69¢	$37	0xc85fa5…
07-04 13:14:53	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	9	69¢	$7	0x790ddc…
07-04 13:14:31	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	305	69¢	$210	0xf25934…
07-04 13:09:07	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	SELL	520	69¢	$359	0x741528…
07-04 09:01:28	will hyperliquid reach 76 in july	No	BUY	16	52¢	$8	0x0bf6d0…
07-04 06:56:52	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	BUY	488	45¢	$220	0x963402…
07-04 06:44:04	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	BUY	12	45¢	$5	0x105d38…
07-03 19:43:25	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0xb50395…
07-03 19:42:50	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	BUY	120	60¢	$72	0xc15c2f…
07-03 15:33:11	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x58115f…
07-03 14:12:59	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	48	66¢	$31	0xdca69f…
07-03 13:55:29	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x0b0bee…
07-03 13:49:19	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	48	66¢	$31	0xab47f8…
07-02 21:21:08	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	300	68¢	$204	0x623650…
07-02 21:09:26	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x01e691…
07-02 13:29:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0xa8886d…
07-02 12:14:22	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	200	90¢	$181	0xdaf674…
07-02 08:39:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	449	78¢	$350	0x4b99c8…
07-02 08:33:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	51	78¢	$40	0x016214…
07-02 07:38:17	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x7dd542…
06-26 19:17:01	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x462388…
06-26 12:26:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xbab0bd…
06-26 12:25:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x054ab3…
06-24 12:34:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	800	57¢	$456	0xdca6fd…
06-24 04:06:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x05024b…
06-24 01:48:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	49	54¢	$26	0x945446…
06-24 01:48:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	65	54¢	$35	0xc34759…
06-24 01:48:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	65	54¢	$35	0x3908aa…
06-24 01:45:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x5aaa8d…
06-24 01:42:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	43	54¢	$23	0x361a61…
06-24 01:37:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	44	54¢	$24	0x99ff83…
06-24 01:37:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	52	54¢	$28	0x5eafb7…
06-24 01:29:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x18d3f0…
06-24 00:59:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	186	54¢	$100	0x9f9b9b…
06-24 00:58:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x3467f5…
06-24 00:57:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x5fe84c…
06-24 00:57:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	71	54¢	$38	0x2ac771…
06-24 00:18:49	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0xdca768…
06-23 18:49:26	congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x4cac19…
06-23 15:23:05	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	57	69¢	$39	0x1929f4…
06-22 14:12:16	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	43	75¢	$32	0x61fa14…
06-22 13:34:59	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xc56b62…
06-22 13:34:40	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	152	75¢	$114	0x4a38d8…
06-22 11:25:53	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	174	99¢	$173	0xd74ce4…
06-22 11:04:50	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x9b6d82…
06-22 09:25:53	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	120	99¢	$118	0x6208d7…
06-22 06:26:52	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	Yes	SELL	489	86¢	$420	0x63eeb3…
06-22 06:26:07	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	Yes	SELL	11	86¢	$10	0xfc51c2…
06-22 03:57:55	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x77e354…
06-22 03:20:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	300	99¢	$298	0x5df16d…
06-21 20:25:11	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x6a74db…
06-21 19:25:35	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x5e2a93…
06-21 18:33:29	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	4	69¢	$2	0x7a413e…
06-21 18:32:26	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	13	69¢	$9	0x6479e4…
06-21 06:54:05	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x84a4e9…