Late-Story — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.93K

Unrealized P&L

+$378

Hit rate

73.7%

Resolved

330

Trades

3,033

lifetime

Volume

$465.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$153

Open exposure

$1.96K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-01 14:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 140 days

Categories

Politics

64% 81% +$1,926

Other

29% 81% +$1,624

Crypto

3% 100% +$524

Tech

2% 67% -$1,258

Sports

2% 96% +$114

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-1,000	-$1,198	82¢	$-825	+$373	10-05 21:23
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+700	$431	64¢	$452	+$20	10-28 01:15
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+500	$368	66¢	$328	-$40	10-08 15:27
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+400	$256	70¢	$282	+$26	10-24 03:53
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+100	$70	70¢	$70	$0	11-01 14:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	116	$52.8K	37,705	37,705	+0	Yes	-$1,736	02-28 06:27
us strikes iran by february 7 2026	8	$18.4K	11,270	7,500	+3,770	No	+$227	02-07 19:09
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	62	$10.5K	5,867	5,867	+0	No	+$67	06-11 03:51
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	20	$9.7K	5,400	6,400	-1,000	open	—	10-05 21:23
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	60	$9.6K	6,252	6,252	+0	Yes	+$275	06-09 17:22
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	23	$9.6K	4,914	4,914	+0	No	+$112	03-08 07:00
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	5	$8.9K	4,753	4,753	+0	No	+$306	02-07 19:01
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	35	$8.0K	6,032	6,032	+0	No	+$1,123	01-27 07:33
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	19	$7.7K	3,538	5,388	-1,850	No	+$741	02-02 14:55
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	20	$7.2K	4,297	4,297	+0	open	—	06-05 02:01
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	44	$7.1K	3,686	3,908	-222	Yes	+$77	04-09 03:36
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	31	$6.2K	4,600	2,800	+1,800	No	+$153	04-01 08:41
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	32	$6.0K	3,759	3,459	+300	Yes	+$146	05-25 23:51
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	29	$5.7K	5,290	4,790	+500	No	+$1,246	03-06 08:22
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	24	$5.6K	3,500	3,400	+100	No	-$1	03-26 02:31
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	3	$5.4K	4,000	4,000	+0	Yes	-$80	02-16 15:44
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	40	$4.6K	3,832	3,432	+400	Yes	+$79	09-14 12:11
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	6	$4.4K	2,900	2,900	+0	Yes	+$371	09-10 08:05
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	29	$4.3K	2,200	2,200	+0	No	+$30	05-23 03:49
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	27	$4.3K	3,817	3,817	+0	No	+$124	09-04 11:19
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	53	$4.2K	4,970	4,970	+0	No	-$274	06-22 16:43
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	25	$4.2K	4,576	1,576	+3,000	No	+$108	06-02 10:58
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	16	$3.8K	2,648	2,148	+500	No	+$158	03-21 15:12
miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	21	$3.8K	2,305	2,005	+300	No	+$177	03-24 13:52
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	18	$3.7K	2,400	1,900	+500	No	+$236	04-23 01:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	13	$3.7K	2,359	1,640	+719	No	+$101	05-19 04:54
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	28	$3.6K	2,100	2,100	+0	No	+$109	03-24 10:26
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	21	$3.5K	2,475	2,475	+0	Yes	-$80	02-15 11:54
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	34	$3.5K	3,322	3,315	+7	No	+$142	01-21 08:14
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	6	$3.4K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	06-16 07:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 14:26:36	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x54f1ce…
10-28 01:15:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xc80322…
10-27 23:37:29	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x80a217…
10-27 16:14:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xf4015f…
10-27 16:14:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	55	94¢	$52	0xe14e49…
10-27 16:14:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	95	94¢	$89	0x1c04b8…
10-27 02:57:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xf40452…
10-27 02:56:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xfd4388…
10-27 02:56:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	98	94¢	$92	0xb3cdfa…
10-24 18:09:39	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x9dbdb7…
10-24 16:58:45	LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Anyone's Legend	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0xf803ba…
10-24 16:57:32	LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Anyone's Legend	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x22f367…
10-24 06:44:05	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	16	92¢	$14	0xf9b7c9…
10-24 06:42:30	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	43	92¢	$40	0x9a54f1…
10-24 06:08:21	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	133	92¢	$122	0x38dc1a…
10-24 05:58:41	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	8	92¢	$8	0x23e251…
10-24 03:53:35	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x1e7237…
10-23 19:41:50	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x288d03…
10-23 19:41:47	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	16	92¢	$14	0xa15fc6…
10-23 19:41:44	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	105	92¢	$96	0x5a7bf8…
10-23 19:41:44	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0x268ba7…
10-23 19:41:38	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	52	92¢	$48	0xee6d32…
10-23 19:41:36	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0xa47a93…
10-23 06:11:21	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x8b9e40…
10-22 15:05:00	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	195	78¢	$152	0x0d6525…
10-22 15:04:39	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	164	23¢	$38	0xd361e6…
10-22 15:04:39	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0x53f1d7…
10-22 15:03:14	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	22¢	$7	0x1ad065…
10-21 03:19:36	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x67f277…
10-21 03:19:06	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	64¢	$22	0x4ed4cd…
10-21 03:19:06	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x213e06…
10-21 03:19:00	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	134	64¢	$86	0xdf79a8…
10-21 02:16:21	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x008dd2…
10-16 01:57:13	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	15¢	$5	0x83e830…
10-16 01:56:37	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	165	14¢	$23	0xb6b602…
10-16 01:47:49	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	195	76¢	$148	0xe1394e…
10-15 12:46:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0x923fdd…
10-14 14:59:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454 592 696	No	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0xc6735f…
10-13 06:45:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x1f59d9…
10-11 13:56:01	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0xb001f2…
10-09 07:16:18	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	45¢	$50	0xa1adf4…
10-09 07:16:15	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	389	45¢	$174	0x434628…
10-09 06:16:27	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	30¢	$300	0xadac7e…
10-09 02:18:48	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	20¢	$40	0x294fcd…
10-09 02:11:41	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$35	0x939770…
10-09 01:49:17	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	197	18¢	$36	0x68c325…
10-09 01:49:02	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	19¢	$1	0x84e9db…
10-09 01:37:56	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	17¢	$20	0xf3d72f…
10-09 01:37:50	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xc53c46…
10-09 01:35:56	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	17¢	$12	0x46b722…
10-09 01:29:12	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	395	20¢	$78	0xf5de5a…
10-09 01:29:11	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x911c7e…
10-09 01:28:14	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	21¢	$84	0x38fd42…
10-09 01:26:35	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	23¢	$91	0x397101…
10-09 00:47:18	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0xa59545…
10-09 00:32:06	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x36b478…
10-09 00:30:23	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x518008…
10-08 15:27:33	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	59	73¢	$43	0xf9605b…
10-08 15:18:24	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0xbae248…
10-08 15:17:14	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xeabafd…
10-08 14:15:42	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	38	73¢	$28	0xa0cf32…
10-08 14:10:35	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	87	73¢	$64	0xf967a4…
10-07 10:24:36	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0xae866b…
10-06 07:25:55	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	SELL	300	76¢	$228	0xde951a…
10-06 05:49:10	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	127	77¢	$98	0x3bbacc…
10-06 05:49:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	73	77¢	$56	0x091f49…
10-06 05:40:52	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x9affa5…
10-06 05:40:52	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	200	73¢	$147	0x1117c8…
10-05 21:23:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	85¢	$850	0xcb8ba8…
10-05 00:44:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	13	16¢	$2	0x723ad1…
10-05 00:43:13	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	150	16¢	$24	0x1281fa…
10-05 00:42:53	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	24	16¢	$4	0x31ac2f…
10-05 00:41:13	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	31	16¢	$5	0xfbd576…
10-05 00:39:49	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	62	16¢	$10	0x0139f4…
10-05 00:37:40	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	19	16¢	$3	0x0ef07e…
10-04 18:16:10	cs2 vit navi 2026 10 04	Vitality	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x0bd9b5…
10-04 17:50:22	cs2 vit navi 2026 10 04	Vitality	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x895ece…
10-04 07:55:28	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	199	63¢	$125	0x612168…
10-04 07:07:35	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	63¢	$1	0x7d9561…
09-30 18:16:05	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x344051…
09-30 18:16:05	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x021ae9…
09-30 14:55:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	57	73¢	$41	0xa81263…
09-30 14:53:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	43	73¢	$32	0xd9d453…
09-29 00:55:00	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	74	42¢	$31	0x575d7b…
09-26 06:44:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	84¢	$420	0xd37e1b…
09-22 15:27:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	85¢	$425	0xedfaae…
09-20 10:09:54	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	SELL	500	95¢	$477	0x4585cb…
09-20 07:26:50	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	57	79¢	$45	0xfc1e9e…
09-20 07:11:09	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	500	80¢	$400	0x901a0c…
09-20 05:22:06	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	243	79¢	$192	0xeac684…
09-19 08:31:45	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	72¢	$216	0x955e2b…
09-19 06:45:33	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	500	77¢	$385	0x97f92d…
09-19 05:17:09	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0xbfc6fd…
09-19 04:57:04	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	BUY	300	92¢	$275	0x2cc18b…
09-19 02:46:19	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	500	76¢	$380	0x3920eb…
09-19 00:27:06	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	90	77¢	$70	0x110f31…
09-19 00:26:34	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0xc9ca2e…
09-19 00:23:48	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	21	77¢	$16	0x70fd15…
09-19 00:23:34	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	382	77¢	$294	0x58d196…
09-18 06:35:31	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x4ec826…