Late-Story — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$248

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

89.1%

Resolved

Trades

2,444

lifetime

Volume

$388.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$159

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 18:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

69% 50% $-254

Other

26% 100% +$6

Tech

2% — —

Sports

2% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 59 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	116	$52.8K	37,705	37,705	+0	open	—	02-28 06:27
us strikes iran by february 7 2026	8	$18.4K	11,270	7,500	+3,770	open	—	02-07 19:09
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	60	$9.6K	6,252	6,252	+0	open	—	06-09 17:22
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	23	$9.6K	4,914	4,914	+0	open	—	03-08 07:00
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	5	$8.9K	4,753	4,753	+0	open	—	02-07 19:01
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	35	$8.0K	6,032	6,032	+0	open	—	01-27 07:33
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	19	$7.7K	3,538	5,388	-1,850	open	—	02-02 14:55
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	44	$7.1K	3,686	3,908	-222	open	—	04-09 03:36
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	31	$6.2K	4,600	2,800	+1,800	open	—	04-01 08:41
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	29	$5.7K	5,290	4,790	+500	open	—	03-06 08:22
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	24	$5.6K	3,500	3,400	+100	open	—	03-26 02:31
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	31	$5.5K	3,185	3,459	-274	open	—	05-25 23:51
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	3	$5.4K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	02-16 15:44
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	8	$4.4K	3,400	2,000	+1,400	open	—	07-16 04:19
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	29	$4.3K	2,200	2,200	+0	open	—	05-23 03:49
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	16	$3.8K	2,648	2,148	+500	open	—	03-21 15:12
miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	21	$3.8K	2,305	2,005	+300	open	—	03-24 13:52
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	18	$3.7K	2,400	1,900	+500	open	—	04-23 01:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	13	$3.7K	2,359	1,640	+719	open	—	05-19 04:54
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	28	$3.6K	2,100	2,100	+0	open	—	03-24 10:26
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	21	$3.5K	2,475	2,475	+0	open	—	02-15 11:54
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	34	$3.5K	3,322	3,315	+7	open	—	01-21 08:14
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	4	$3.5K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	06-05 02:01
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	9	$3.5K	4,000	1,000	+3,000	open	—	06-02 10:58
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	29	$3.2K	2,200	1,700	+500	open	—	04-20 12:51
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	23	$3.0K	2,100	2,200	-100	open	—	05-24 09:14
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	13	$3.0K	2,100	1,800	+300	open	—	04-22 13:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	8	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-21 15:58
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	37	$2.7K	2,096	2,096	+0	open	—	03-24 15:34
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	13	$2.7K	1,438	1,600	-162	open	—	04-08 06:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 18:48:18	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	500	84¢	$420	0xb92007…
08-10 15:50:03	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	383	87¢	$333	0x2e2671…
08-10 15:44:04	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	300	87¢	$261	0x4d0c8f…
08-10 15:41:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	300	87¢	$261	0xfd2879…
08-10 15:36:37	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0xd9d2dc…
08-10 15:21:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xaef249…
08-09 16:06:33	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	213	87¢	$186	0x1550ce…
08-09 14:23:15	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	87	87¢	$75	0xc57b93…
08-09 13:00:51	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x935d32…
08-09 13:00:51	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	108	83¢	$89	0x3ece5a…
08-09 12:59:30	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	SELL	300	71¢	$213	0xd8db18…
08-09 12:52:00	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	192	83¢	$160	0x9b3fc4…
08-09 11:49:52	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0xf08493…
08-09 11:36:12	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x994764…
08-09 11:27:09	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xed6614…
08-08 23:10:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	360	84¢	$302	0x8dce3e…
08-08 23:10:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	640	84¢	$538	0x6f6358…
08-05 19:00:54	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	No	BUY	94	92¢	$86	0xe8df4a…
08-05 15:37:54	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0x5a87cf…
08-04 18:10:15	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0xd17b5c…
08-04 16:10:54	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	400	84¢	$336	0x971a7a…
08-04 15:50:27	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	SELL	385	83¢	$319	0x11cc59…
08-04 15:25:20	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x88489d…
08-04 14:52:26	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	383	82¢	$314	0x9b8b1b…
08-03 23:43:50	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	500	45¢	$225	0x811ea3…
08-03 23:43:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	500	44¢	$220	0xcf8db5…
08-03 23:16:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	32	85¢	$27	0x4e626c…
08-03 23:06:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	32	84¢	$27	0xda48f6…
08-03 19:16:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	11	79¢	$8	0x625d6e…
08-03 19:13:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1,000	69¢	$690	0x86e766…
08-03 19:00:23	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	270	81¢	$218	0xe51ccc…
08-03 18:58:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	19	81¢	$16	0x5ae484…
08-03 17:55:53	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	376	91¢	$342	0xede522…
08-03 17:49:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	661	91¢	$601	0xdb8321…
08-02 13:52:51	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	SELL	100	56¢	$56	0x271dcd…
08-02 13:13:56	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	155	78¢	$121	0x6f5232…
08-02 12:56:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	45	78¢	$35	0xd2b0a7…
08-02 12:55:56	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0xecc06b…
08-02 12:50:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	68	78¢	$53	0x0432cc…
08-02 11:59:42	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	SELL	200	43¢	$86	0x6f7674…
08-02 11:56:35	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	300	40¢	$121	0x625f13…
08-02 07:41:47	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	No	SELL	109	86¢	$94	0x6d7a37…
08-02 07:12:05	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0xd28abc…
08-02 06:31:21	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	No	SELL	88	86¢	$76	0xf96aff…
08-02 02:26:05	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	16	90¢	$14	0x1aa2a0…
08-01 20:37:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x9ce78b…
08-01 20:22:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xd80ed1…
08-01 20:22:17	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xddab63…
08-01 20:21:59	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x90de9f…
08-01 20:21:47	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x3c4845…
08-01 20:20:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xa39fc2…
08-01 20:19:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xd58ecf…
08-01 20:02:05	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	No	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x1d3a86…
08-01 19:24:20	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0xe8498e…
08-01 19:04:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	19	47¢	$9	0xf2bc44…
08-01 19:02:11	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	SELL	800	0¢	$1	0x5b89e5…
08-01 15:05:39	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x7d3a7a…
08-01 14:55:09	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	2	28¢	$0	0xb008e2…
08-01 14:55:05	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0xec4b7d…
08-01 14:52:30	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	184	28¢	$52	0x32bc79…
08-01 14:47:30	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	300	31¢	$93	0xa0f79b…
08-01 14:45:15	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x5eada1…
08-01 14:00:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xfe808c…
08-01 12:23:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x208e02…
08-01 11:36:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	41	58¢	$24	0x5f9a99…
08-01 11:36:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x3e0c0c…
08-01 11:33:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x7bc7a8…
08-01 11:21:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	70	59¢	$41	0x9b66ef…
08-01 11:17:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	1,000	45¢	$450	0x96ca4b…
08-01 11:15:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	25	59¢	$15	0x152524…
08-01 11:14:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	405	59¢	$239	0x1e0216…
08-01 10:44:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1,000	45¢	$450	0x4e0ef8…
07-30 02:53:35	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	86	90¢	$77	0x23b7bf…
07-29 16:10:47	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	12	90¢	$11	0x892ad8…
07-26 14:51:34	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x3e68e5…
07-25 04:03:55	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0xe140de…
07-24 11:21:00	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0x39793f…
07-20 17:20:07	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	200	96¢	$193	0x19dcf9…
07-20 16:11:16	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x8736a3…
07-20 15:58:10	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	500	43¢	$215	0x45c9ec…
07-20 15:44:48	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	500	38¢	$190	0xe61ebe…
07-20 15:44:10	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	200	97¢	$193	0x3227e0…
07-20 01:55:55	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x5e3430…
07-19 14:54:28	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0x49a828…
07-18 18:37:04	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xc0295b…
07-18 17:27:33	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	54	90¢	$48	0xb652ac…
07-17 13:24:18	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xe47e91…
07-16 08:54:10	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x948199…
07-16 04:19:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0x85b912…
07-15 22:20:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x7ddace…
07-15 07:51:13	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x8f78f5…
07-14 20:42:56	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	28	90¢	$25	0x3fa8bd…
07-14 18:11:32	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	39	90¢	$35	0xbc5a06…
07-14 05:32:28	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xcce426…
07-12 02:19:46	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xe2695f…
07-11 21:57:34	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x1a8a8e…
07-11 13:59:32	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x8507e9…
07-09 06:45:41	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	242	95¢	$229	0x48e401…
07-09 05:55:13	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x988b69…
07-09 05:53:58	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	45	95¢	$43	0x95c1cc…