Hard-Larva — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$767

Unrealized P&L

-$199

Hit rate

85.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,517

lifetime

Volume

$444.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$293

Open exposure

$5.41K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-08 02:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

45% 50% $-313

Politics

44% — —

Sports

10% 60% $-454

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 96 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+4,706	$4,000	82¢	$3.9K	$-118	06-05 01:34
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	+1,211	$884	64¢	$769	$-115	06-04 09:56
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	+638	$439	68¢	$437	$-2	06-06 08:03
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	+1,013	$284	32¢	$319	+$35	06-04 09:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will mrbeasts next video get between 63 and 65 million views on day 4	11	$34.8K	23,013	20,013	+3,000	open	—	03-11 17:02
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	17	$33.5K	21,460	21,460	+0	open	—	02-25 03:18
will mrbeasts next video get between 39pt5 and 40pt0 million views on day 6	10	$22.2K	19,915	2,867	+17,048	open	—	02-27 19:40
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	28	$21.9K	17,922	5,300	+12,622	open	—	03-02 08:43
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	5	$14.5K	7,300	7,300	+0	open	—	01-03 09:49
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	10	$12.0K	14,588	0	+14,588	open	—	03-13 05:16
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	31	$10.1K	11,604	2,500	+9,104	open	—	01-31 00:03
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	1	$9.0K	9,273	0	+9,273	open	—	02-09 04:21
us forces in venezuela again by january 31 2026	7	$9.0K	5,192	5,192	+0	open	—	01-18 06:53
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$8.7K	6,045	6,045	+0	open	—	03-19 06:02
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 50m and 75m views in its first 7 days	6	$8.2K	4,623	4,146	+477	open	—	02-12 11:17
will mrbeasts next video get between 32 and 34 million views on day 3	9	$7.8K	5,006	5,006	+0	open	—	02-24 02:44
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	37	$7.6K	9,625	160	+9,465	open	—	05-20 02:53
will mrbeasts latest video get less than 37 million views on week 1	2	$7.5K	3,766	3,766	+0	open	—	02-27 04:23
will ppso win the most seats in the 2026 costa rican legislative assembly election	19	$6.8K	4,681	4,088	+593	open	—	01-29 05:42
will mrbeasts latest video get 41 million or more views on week 1	16	$6.5K	8,239	200	+8,039	open	—	02-28 05:29
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$6.2K	7,371	0	+7,371	open	—	02-10 09:13
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	26	$6.1K	8,230	4,483	+3,747	open	—	04-07 19:12
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	10	$6.0K	5,819	810	+5,010	open	—	02-19 07:29
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	14	$5.9K	7,659	5,327	+2,332	open	—	03-06 21:14
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 75m and 100m views in its first 7 days	54	$5.9K	8,920	3,200	+5,720	open	—	02-15 06:35
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	8	$5.8K	13,249	6,824	+6,425	open	—	04-01 03:25
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	40	$5.7K	7,253	2,795	+4,458	open	—	05-20 07:13
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	5	$5.2K	6,870	6,870	+0	open	—	04-05 00:47
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	12	$5.1K	6,949	5,337	+1,613	open	—	01-29 00:55
will germany strike iran by march 31	2	$5.0K	2,542	2,542	+0	open	—	03-11 03:06
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	4	$4.9K	2,523	2,523	+0	open	—	01-24 07:59
maduro mugshot released by january 9	12	$4.8K	3,823	2,096	+1,728	open	—	01-09 06:40
will karol g perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	24	$4.7K	3,942	3,125	+817	open	—	02-09 04:02
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	13	$4.3K	4,490	3,453	+1,038	open	—	02-09 04:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 02:01:01	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	BUY	370	46¢	$170	0x705293…
06-06 08:03:19	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	368	68¢	$250	0x04629c…
06-05 01:34:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	4,706	85¢	$4,000	0xeb58cb…
06-04 23:14:54	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	79	29¢	$23	0xee418c…
06-04 21:11:18	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	25	30¢	$8	0x03bd25…
06-04 17:11:45	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0x531bf1…
06-04 11:04:19	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	33	30¢	$10	0xdd4b10…
06-04 09:56:48	Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	800	73¢	$584	0x5d57f3…
06-04 09:43:22	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1,013	28¢	$284	0x640013…
06-04 09:42:55	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	45	30¢	$14	0x7b4135…
06-04 08:43:54	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	270	70¢	$189	0x36c95d…
06-04 08:42:13	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	190	32¢	$61	0x2c50ad…
06-04 08:35:28	Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	411	73¢	$300	0x19ee45…
05-30 16:56:49	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Under	SELL	126	24¢	$30	0xfe99c5…
05-30 16:40:41	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	126	20¢	$25	0x9ddf15…
05-20 07:13:29	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	267	85¢	$227	0xcfcdb1…
05-20 02:53:41	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	275	83¢	$228	0xcd8dc6…
05-20 02:53:15	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0x26055f…
05-20 02:52:30	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	227	83¢	$188	0xa5b120…
05-20 02:00:38	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x883a09…
05-20 01:59:02	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x48d940…
05-20 01:58:06	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0x291b35…
05-20 01:46:08	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xd29072…
05-20 01:39:47	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	24	81¢	$20	0xf83434…
05-20 01:15:19	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	350	75¢	$262	0x624044…
05-20 00:56:00	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0x6c1eef…
05-20 00:36:59	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	21	81¢	$17	0xa4174c…
05-19 22:55:41	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	41	81¢	$34	0x913dea…
05-19 22:33:10	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	18	81¢	$14	0x5b54b7…
05-19 22:21:23	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xdb0a6c…
05-19 20:20:45	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	18	80¢	$14	0x97b2e1…
05-19 20:08:53	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xf0e77c…
05-19 20:07:48	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$1	0xa8877f…
05-19 19:02:13	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xa2773b…
05-19 18:58:25	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x4e978a…
05-19 18:52:32	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	8	79¢	$6	0xeed6d0…
05-19 18:49:02	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	152	80¢	$121	0x0cbf9d…
05-19 18:24:47	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	176	69¢	$122	0x07ed2e…
05-19 18:23:43	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xdbe3c5…
05-19 18:21:26	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xbd3a1d…
05-19 15:30:47	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	62	83¢	$51	0x90287a…
05-19 15:27:31	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	3	83¢	$3	0xb60916…
05-19 14:59:41	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x5bc6f6…
05-19 14:56:24	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	380	85¢	$323	0xd5a6bc…
05-19 14:56:11	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xc9421d…
05-19 14:50:37	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xc24ea3…
05-19 14:44:26	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0x27c3bd…
05-19 14:41:38	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	133	85¢	$113	0xb83986…
05-19 14:35:59	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x6fd326…
05-19 14:24:55	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x8e2154…
05-19 14:07:03	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	67	85¢	$57	0xe91aea…
05-19 14:02:16	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x6d5fb2…
05-19 14:00:39	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0x99c6b4…
05-19 13:56:12	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x111815…
05-19 13:55:14	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	9	85¢	$7	0x91cc1c…
05-19 13:45:50	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	31	85¢	$27	0xdde759…
05-19 13:36:43	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	221	10¢	$22	0xe9b4e2…
05-19 13:27:59	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	198	10¢	$20	0xbbaa19…
05-19 13:27:40	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	19	10¢	$2	0xd473c3…
05-19 13:25:38	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	185	10¢	$19	0x5d5700…
05-19 13:24:05	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	350	10¢	$35	0x673e41…
05-19 13:09:12	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	19	10¢	$2	0xab130f…
05-19 13:07:08	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	188	80¢	$150	0x04d6a1…
05-19 13:03:26	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0x8561c8…
05-19 13:02:30	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x630de1…
05-19 12:56:01	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	80	10¢	$8	0x23b5cb…
05-19 12:52:24	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xe85689…
05-19 12:50:15	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	2	10¢	$0	0x013d28…
05-19 12:44:18	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xa2d378…
05-19 12:43:50	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x7fb2f8…
05-19 12:41:53	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	34	83¢	$28	0x5ad44f…
05-19 12:36:10	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0xc6d6b7…
05-19 12:35:14	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	80	10¢	$8	0xca67f2…
05-19 12:21:21	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x53c86c…
05-19 12:16:35	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	15	10¢	$2	0x6069ef…
05-19 12:01:06	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x1e91a9…
05-19 11:35:51	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	45	10¢	$4	0xcbc135…
05-19 11:20:46	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	118	83¢	$98	0xbbe973…
05-19 11:14:47	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	86	10¢	$9	0x174f57…
05-19 10:54:29	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	17	83¢	$14	0xc74b8c…
05-19 10:51:46	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$6	0x60e76c…
05-19 10:35:19	Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	420	77¢	$323	0xe9abdc…
05-19 10:15:29	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	963	84¢	$807	0x69aa62…
05-19 10:15:14	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	681	93¢	$630	0x616c50…
05-19 10:10:58	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	15	83¢	$13	0x2ba5fc…
05-19 10:10:46	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	548	87¢	$476	0x293b17…
05-19 10:09:25	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	294	84¢	$247	0xd11428…
05-19 10:09:03	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	524	76¢	$396	0xc90d31…
05-19 10:08:56	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	22	80¢	$18	0xcf5d11…
05-19 09:27:24	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xbda420…
05-19 09:10:23	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	192	80¢	$154	0xc242d2…
05-19 08:52:39	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xa75e56…
05-19 08:50:58	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	496	40¢	$198	0xa50779…
05-19 08:19:19	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	46	80¢	$37	0x051b26…
05-19 08:19:07	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	183	38¢	$70	0xa6a452…
05-19 07:34:49	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	184	60¢	$111	0x06de83…
05-19 07:09:02	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	415	83¢	$344	0xddd5fb…
05-19 07:08:27	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	177	75¢	$132	0x755030…
05-19 06:12:00	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	16	60¢	$9	0x9b22cf…
05-19 06:08:20	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	1,513	76¢	$1,150	0xa5530d…