Hard-Larva — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$767

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

85.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,815

lifetime

Volume

$545.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$301

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-18 22:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

40% — —

Other

38% 50% $-313

Sports

21% 60% $-454

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 76 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	96	$54.1K	55,963	14,097	+41,865	open	—	07-07 18:30
will mrbeasts next video get between 63 and 65 million views on day 4	11	$34.8K	23,013	20,013	+3,000	open	—	03-11 17:02
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	17	$33.5K	21,460	21,460	+0	open	—	02-25 03:18
will mrbeasts next video get between 39pt5 and 40pt0 million views on day 6	10	$22.2K	19,915	2,867	+17,048	open	—	02-27 19:40
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	28	$21.9K	17,922	5,300	+12,622	open	—	03-02 08:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$18.9K	7,031	14,748	-7,716	open	—	07-06 04:37
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	5	$14.5K	7,300	7,300	+0	open	—	01-03 09:49
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	10	$12.0K	14,588	0	+14,588	open	—	03-13 05:16
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	31	$10.1K	11,604	2,500	+9,104	open	—	01-31 00:03
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	1	$9.0K	9,273	0	+9,273	open	—	02-09 04:21
us forces in venezuela again by january 31 2026	7	$9.0K	5,192	5,192	+0	open	—	01-18 06:53
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$8.7K	6,045	6,045	+0	open	—	03-19 06:02
Iran leadership change by December 31?	2	$8.4K	2,941	6,997	-4,056	open	—	07-06 21:25
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 50m and 75m views in its first 7 days	6	$8.2K	4,623	4,146	+477	open	—	02-12 11:17
will mrbeasts next video get between 32 and 34 million views on day 3	9	$7.8K	5,006	5,006	+0	open	—	02-24 02:44
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	37	$7.6K	9,625	160	+9,465	open	—	05-20 02:53
will mrbeasts latest video get less than 37 million views on week 1	2	$7.5K	3,766	3,766	+0	open	—	02-27 04:23
will ppso win the most seats in the 2026 costa rican legislative assembly election	19	$6.8K	4,681	4,088	+593	open	—	01-29 05:42
will mrbeasts latest video get 41 million or more views on week 1	16	$6.5K	8,239	200	+8,039	open	—	02-28 05:29
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$6.2K	7,371	0	+7,371	open	—	02-10 09:13
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	26	$6.1K	8,230	4,483	+3,747	open	—	04-07 19:12
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	10	$6.0K	5,819	810	+5,010	open	—	02-19 07:29
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	14	$5.9K	7,659	5,327	+2,332	open	—	03-06 21:14
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 75m and 100m views in its first 7 days	54	$5.9K	8,920	3,200	+5,720	open	—	02-15 06:35
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	8	$5.8K	13,249	6,824	+6,425	open	—	04-01 03:25
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	40	$5.7K	7,253	2,795	+4,458	open	—	05-20 07:13
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	5	$5.2K	6,870	6,870	+0	open	—	04-05 00:47
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	12	$5.1K	6,949	5,337	+1,613	open	—	01-29 00:55
will germany strike iran by march 31	2	$5.0K	2,542	2,542	+0	open	—	03-11 03:06
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	4	$4.9K	2,523	2,523	+0	open	—	01-24 07:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 22:51:34	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	SELL	250	4¢	$9	0xa7d61c…
07-18 22:47:37	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	250	12¢	$30	0xe34f43…
07-15 04:21:55	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	175	54¢	$94	0x64e513…
07-14 23:00:53	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	234	46¢	$108	0x97caef…
07-14 20:01:26	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	BUY	61	65¢	$40	0x93782c…
07-08 01:24:49	Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,119	7¢	$81	0x4a0874…
07-08 01:21:26	will alexander srloth score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	260	74¢	$192	0x8f50d7…
07-07 18:30:41	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	232	73¢	$169	0x03eca0…
07-07 18:30:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	265	73¢	$193	0x3a27e2…
07-07 18:30:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	37	73¢	$27	0xab9418…
07-07 18:30:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	89	73¢	$65	0x9b1fc7…
07-07 18:30:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0xb42c8e…
07-07 18:30:26	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	251	73¢	$182	0x8440d7…
07-07 18:30:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2,266	72¢	$1,642	0x932ac8…
07-07 18:29:59	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	4,627	71¢	$3,303	0x845efe…
07-07 18:23:26	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2,534	79¢	$2,000	0x9926a8…
07-07 18:13:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	10,488	96¢	$10,069	0xa1081a…
07-07 17:53:14	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	SELL	1,500	25¢	$375	0xb1d0f0…
07-07 17:47:04	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	1,500	29¢	$435	0x0fc9a1…
07-07 05:33:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xb0063a…
07-07 00:39:43	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,976	61¢	$1,200	0x6e8510…
07-07 00:39:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2,711	59¢	$1,600	0xbd8844…
07-06 22:57:25	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2,000	85¢	$1,700	0x4226d5…
07-06 22:39:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	3,000	85¢	$2,550	0x7daefc…
07-06 22:34:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	3,000	82¢	$2,460	0x518f0b…
07-06 22:31:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	4,000	79¢	$3,141	0xcae880…
07-06 22:23:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	46	81¢	$37	0xb3a296…
07-06 22:22:25	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	520	79¢	$409	0x7b30e9…
07-06 21:37:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2,000	73¢	$1,460	0xefd7fc…
07-06 21:27:40	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0xdc4b5a…
07-06 21:27:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	3,991	68¢	$2,714	0xf680fd…
07-06 21:26:41	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2,630	73¢	$1,909	0x064b62…
07-06 21:25:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	247	74¢	$183	0x026ac9…
07-06 21:25:47	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xa7ac5b…
07-06 21:25:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xead8a4…
07-06 21:25:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	998	74¢	$738	0xe5ed48…
07-06 21:25:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0xbfce28…
07-06 21:25:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0xba0791…
07-06 21:25:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	138	74¢	$102	0x428905…
07-06 21:25:22	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	6,997	84¢	$5,878	0x1db216…
07-06 21:21:35	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	576	74¢	$426	0x4ec95d…
07-06 21:21:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	242	74¢	$179	0x840d15…
07-06 21:18:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2,553	78¢	$1,991	0xfc7fa2…
07-06 21:18:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2	78¢	$1	0xde54a7…
07-06 21:18:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	37	78¢	$29	0x2dfaf8…
07-06 21:17:56	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xb102bf…
07-06 21:17:56	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x9a53f9…
07-06 21:17:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2,673	77¢	$2,058	0xfe5e59…
07-06 21:17:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x91db9c…
07-06 21:17:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	451	83¢	$375	0x8efa6a…
07-06 21:17:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0xe44dac…
07-06 21:17:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xd599c3…
07-06 21:17:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0xcb0dd8…
07-06 21:17:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x1a1320…
07-06 21:17:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xc2c39b…
07-06 21:17:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x954d5a…
07-06 21:17:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x604673…
07-06 21:17:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,290	83¢	$1,071	0x5c50bf…
07-06 21:16:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	12	78¢	$9	0x5f506f…
07-06 21:16:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xd0f6ae…
07-06 21:16:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	62	78¢	$49	0x978c95…
07-06 21:16:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	227	78¢	$177	0x485e44…
07-06 21:16:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	55	78¢	$43	0x9a04c5…
07-06 21:16:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x2d242d…
07-06 21:16:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2,334	78¢	$1,820	0x11fdbf…
07-06 21:16:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x8a2b75…
07-06 21:16:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x3e7120…
07-06 21:16:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	150	72¢	$108	0x33a536…
07-06 21:16:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	886	72¢	$638	0x6e9c93…
07-06 21:16:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x0638cd…
07-06 21:13:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	455	66¢	$300	0x0757ca…
07-06 21:12:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x73a132…
07-06 21:12:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	448	57¢	$255	0x6f69e4…
07-06 21:12:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	27	57¢	$15	0x451769…
07-06 21:08:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	510	49¢	$250	0xfa9c25…
07-06 21:07:56	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0x94a128…
07-06 20:58:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	300	43¢	$129	0xefe939…
07-06 20:57:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0x8d3f71…
07-06 20:56:02	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	Spain	SELL	504	96¢	$483	0xd920d5…
07-06 20:55:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	66	32¢	$21	0x15f7f5…
07-06 20:55:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0xf65c88…
07-06 20:55:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	93	32¢	$30	0x73f20a…
07-06 20:54:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x841cfe…
07-06 20:54:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xf74f7c…
07-06 20:54:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0xefe5da…
07-06 20:54:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	18	32¢	$6	0x9dad4d…
07-06 20:54:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x54060d…
07-06 20:54:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x536087…
07-06 20:54:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0xe964cc…
07-06 20:54:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0xcd0bf1…
07-06 20:54:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	172	32¢	$55	0x2a86d0…
07-06 20:54:47	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	29	32¢	$9	0x337070…
07-06 20:45:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	509	67¢	$341	0x73bee8…
07-06 19:09:13	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	Spain	BUY	234	64¢	$150	0x4bfa92…
07-06 19:05:05	will cristiano ronaldo score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144406405	No	BUY	129	58¢	$75	0x89a9ed…
07-06 19:04:34	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	Spain	BUY	269	65¢	$175	0xe18f50…
07-06 04:37:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8,537	88¢	$7,512	0xafcdc4…
07-06 02:36:31	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	Mexico	BUY	125	36¢	$45	0x21ae4b…
07-05 21:30:55	will neymar jr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	200	63¢	$126	0xc64757…
07-05 21:30:46	will neymar jr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0x74620d…