Improbable-Conference — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.90K

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

85.4%

Resolved

Trades

950

lifetime

Volume

$93.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$98

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-23

last 07-15 22:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Politics

97% 79% +$1,749

Sports

3% 50% +$138

Other

1% 100% +$12

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-15).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	Yes		+200	$7	2¢	$4	-$4	07-04 19:56
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No		+0	$0	98¢	$0	+$0	06-10 09:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	75	$36.7K	18,411	18,761	-350	No	+$122	06-08 01:30
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	29	$12.1K	5,898	9,944	-4,046	Yes	+$1,180	06-30 20:02
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	421	$11.8K	35,080	38,277	-3,197	No	-$162	06-10 18:01
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	20	$4.8K	2,419	2,419	+0	Yes	+$23	05-16 00:06
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	5	$3.0K	2,596	921	+1,676	Yes	+$350	06-30 20:03
peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	11	$2.9K	2,929	0	+2,929	No	+$31	07-04 09:18
will the jne certify results of the second round of the 2026 peruvian presidential elections by july 15 20260608233701772	21	$2.2K	2,269	0	+2,269	Yes	+$64	06-30 20:02
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	11	$2.2K	1,109	1,109	-0	Yes	+$30	05-15 23:01
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	13	$2.1K	2,450	0	+2,450	Yes	+$309	06-30 02:29
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?	4	$2.1K	2,138	0	+2,138	Yes	+$11	07-04 09:19
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%?	8	$2.0K	1,091	1,091	+0	No	+$143	06-08 11:07
will the jne certify results of the second round of the 2026 peruvian presidential elections by june 30 20260608233701771	19	$1.5K	1,532	0	+1,532	No	+$25	06-30 20:02
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%?	14	$1.1K	581	581	+0	No	+$24	06-07 22:01
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?	13	$1.1K	446	677	-231	No	+$20	06-20 17:57
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$715	369	369	+0	No	+$22	05-13 05:07
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	15	$701	355	355	+0	Yes	+$9	05-15 22:52
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?	6	$567	560	10	+550	Yes	+$3	06-16 17:35
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	34	$510	1,607	804	+804	Yes	-$184	06-21 18:42
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$399	200	200	+0	No	+$1	04-28 18:24
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	9	$374	200	200	+0	No	+$26	06-01 01:37
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	6	$336	250	200	+50	Yes	-$40	07-07 19:24
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?	6	$297	870	0	+870	No	-$297	06-04 17:50
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	4	$263	150	150	+0	No	+$11	05-27 21:28
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?	1	$259	260	0	+260	Yes	+$1	07-01 05:29
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	4	$243	123	122	+1	Yes	+$1	05-17 14:05
Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	4	$227	114	114	+0	Yes	+$1	05-10 20:13
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$1	05-28 04:34
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?	2	$192	100	100	+0	No	+$6	06-17 09:28
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	2	$188	100	100	+0	open	—	05-23 14:24
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	11	$174	261	150	+111	No	+$65	07-14 18:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-15 22:08:25	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	58¢	$17	0x8cb56c…
07-15 17:16:22	Will the final be ESP vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	27	53¢	$14	0xa6c200…
07-15 17:10:49	Will the final be ESP vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	113	53¢	$60	0xb6f304…
07-14 18:55:58	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	90	43¢	$39	0xf63fd3…
07-14 15:55:38	Will the final be FRA vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	3	68¢	$2	0x8f8ebe…
07-14 15:07:04	Will the final be FRA vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	17	68¢	$11	0xc7b57f…
07-12 04:11:23	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	70	53¢	$37	0xd401ab…
07-11 21:19:35	Will the final be FRA vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xbcee78…
07-11 17:48:50	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x6323cf…
07-11 08:08:38	Will the final be FRA vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xcd1fd9…
07-11 01:54:35	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	40	42¢	$17	0x8731be…
07-11 01:54:23	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x7b9908…
07-10 22:07:16	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$7	0x2b8ae0…
07-10 20:40:19	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xd99bf8…
07-10 19:41:26	Will the final be ESP vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	120	13¢	$16	0x018d6d…
07-10 19:36:52	Will the final be ESP vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x64513d…
07-10 19:21:16	pedro castillo pardoned in 2026	Yes	BUY	16	14¢	$2	0x0fa044…
07-10 19:08:47	Will the final be ESP vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x3a8e24…
07-10 14:04:56	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	60	33¢	$20	0x1bb51d…
07-10 07:13:22	pedro castillo pardoned in 2026	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x239296…
07-10 05:52:55	Will the final be FRA vs NOR at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xe50f61…
07-10 03:36:53	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0xc39636…
07-10 02:43:20	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	19	34¢	$6	0xa90108…
07-10 02:22:08	Will the final be FRA vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	40	71¢	$28	0x17fe1a…
07-10 02:19:16	Will the final be FRA vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	15	72¢	$11	0xd77424…
07-09 22:32:13	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x3cfee8…
07-09 22:08:34	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	30	35¢	$10	0xad740a…
07-09 19:44:50	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	16	48¢	$8	0x7b80d5…
07-07 23:58:23	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	25	46¢	$12	0x22d547…
07-07 23:12:23	will switzerland reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149714	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x128499…
07-07 23:04:26	will switzerland reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149714	Yes	SELL	76	25¢	$19	0xb98eb1…
07-07 23:02:55	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0xf89b23…
07-07 23:02:53	will switzerland reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149714	Yes	SELL	14	25¢	$4	0x7ee770…
07-07 23:00:43	will switzerland reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149714	Yes	SELL	10	25¢	$3	0x0f0ebf…
07-07 22:59:47	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0xf614bd…
07-07 22:57:07	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	SELL	17	75¢	$13	0xbe7bac…
07-07 22:56:56	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	SELL	40	75¢	$30	0x7f66d2…
07-07 22:39:07	will switzerland reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134472	Yes	SELL	30	47¢	$14	0xaa7150…
07-07 19:24:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x5351b6…
07-07 18:20:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	161	74¢	$119	0x0a6c1e…
07-07 18:20:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	39	74¢	$29	0xda7603…
07-07 16:57:14	will egypt reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134493	Yes	SELL	40	37¢	$15	0x535fd3…
07-07 05:32:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	63	77¢	$49	0xc12c7b…
07-07 05:31:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	37	77¢	$28	0x6c3777…
07-07 05:10:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xe8a965…
07-07 02:05:04	will switzerland reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149714	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x897bcc…
07-06 04:51:13	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x5bfd6d…
07-05 14:33:50	will egypt reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134493	Yes	BUY	150	14¢	$21	0x324f88…
07-04 19:56:31	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$7	0x4e0214…
07-04 09:19:52	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?	Yes	BUY	462	100¢	$461	0xb699ce…
07-04 09:18:47	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	No	BUY	144	99¢	$143	0xe6a0bd…
07-04 08:00:34	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x349d02…
07-04 08:00:10	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	No	BUY	239	98¢	$235	0xa8e94a…
07-04 03:53:56	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	No	BUY	175	99¢	$173	0x8a4715…
07-03 04:20:34	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x834b9c…
07-03 01:37:53	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x0744b9…
07-03 01:26:55	will spain reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149737	No	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x9e9d54…
07-03 01:17:47	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x14ec61…
07-02 15:10:55	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	No	BUY	148	99¢	$146	0x960644…
07-02 10:43:29	will switzerland reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134472	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xe55bf7…
07-02 01:53:04	will switzerland reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134472	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x792b73…
07-01 18:32:16	will portugal reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120775	No	SELL	15	31¢	$5	0x779a21…
07-01 18:23:38	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?	Yes	BUY	256	100¢	$255	0x646161…
07-01 09:49:52	will croatia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134512	No	SELL	15	92¢	$14	0x388c3a…
07-01 07:49:53	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x579776…
07-01 05:29:17	Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?	Yes	BUY	260	100¢	$259	0xaa5e48…
07-01 05:18:17	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xb6ebb6…
07-01 05:18:17	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	68	4¢	$3	0x10bf3b…
07-01 04:03:31	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x2c5202…
07-01 03:53:13	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x64cf17…
07-01 03:46:32	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0x1ed845…
07-01 03:42:58	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xa38b15…
07-01 03:36:35	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x1d79db…
07-01 00:58:44	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0xa72902…
06-30 23:27:59	will switzerland reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134472	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0xbb6b69…
06-30 23:24:10	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	60	20¢	$12	0xadb7bf…
06-30 22:56:02	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?	Yes	BUY	961	99¢	$955	0x65e5e9…
06-30 20:10:19	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x4df1df…
06-30 20:10:05	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xeb8d10…
06-30 20:08:59	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	No	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,980	0x5003cc…
06-30 20:03:55	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?	Yes	BUY	459	99¢	$456	0xd37fbb…
06-30 20:03:11	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	Yes	BUY	1,676	99¢	$1,666	0xf113a9…
06-30 20:02:38	will the jne certify results of the second round of the 2026 peruvian presidential elections by july 15 20260608233701772	Yes	BUY	971	99¢	$961	0xc7d540…
06-30 20:02:29	will the jne certify results of the second round of the 2026 peruvian presidential elections by june 30 20260608233701771	No	BUY	259	100¢	$259	0x52161a…
06-30 20:02:11	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5,403	100¢	$5,397	0xf73ea3…
06-30 19:19:59	Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x3852aa…
06-30 18:45:43	will the jne certify results of the second round of the 2026 peruvian presidential elections by june 30 20260608233701771	No	BUY	94	100¢	$94	0x8fc52e…
06-30 16:51:32	will the jne certify results of the second round of the 2026 peruvian presidential elections by june 30 20260608233701771	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x841d32…
06-30 16:12:46	will brazil reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149717	No	SELL	12	66¢	$8	0x8a4279…
06-30 15:17:17	will brazil reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149717	No	SELL	4	66¢	$2	0xeef979…
06-30 14:34:05	Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0xe71b25…
06-30 13:04:32	will brazil reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149717	No	SELL	4	66¢	$2	0x64b0a7…
06-30 08:43:34	will the jne certify results of the second round of the 2026 peruvian presidential elections by june 30 20260608233701771	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x22d2ba…
06-30 08:40:20	will the jne certify results of the second round of the 2026 peruvian presidential elections by june 30 20260608233701771	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x52913b…
06-30 08:40:11	will the jne certify results of the second round of the 2026 peruvian presidential elections by june 30 20260608233701771	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x35cc79…
06-30 08:29:01	will mexico reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149709	No	SELL	65	86¢	$56	0xba5e4b…
06-30 07:35:02	will spain reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149737	No	SELL	40	56¢	$22	0xcfaa31…
06-30 07:33:07	Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x962f0b…
06-30 04:38:26	will colombia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120776	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xf95ee3…
06-30 04:20:08	will canada reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134471	Yes	SELL	15	29¢	$4	0x67f103…