Wiry-Lecture — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

75.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,706

lifetime

Volume

$7.01K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-04

last 06-16 22:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

42% 20% $-15

Politics

36% 100% +$7

Sports

21% 100% +$2

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nba sas den 2026 04 04	51	$527	606	598	+8	open	—	04-04 21:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	127	$509	585	585	+0	open	—	04-07 21:44
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	71	$393	345	320	+25	open	—	04-07 22:21
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	44	$254	244	233	+11	open	—	04-07 22:16
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	40	$230	271	242	+29	open	—	04-07 21:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	21	$142	110	108	+2	open	—	04-07 22:20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	23	$128	129	126	+3	open	—	04-07 22:21
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	22	$127	143	98	+45	open	—	04-07 22:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	10	$102	99	72	+27	open	—	04-12 13:55
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	9	$87	44	44	+0	open	—	04-08 06:16
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	10	$87	72	50	+22	open	—	04-06 05:42
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	10	$87	86	86	+0	open	—	04-12 05:26
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	11	$83	71	49	+22	open	—	04-07 20:44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	5	$80	42	42	+0	open	—	04-07 09:25
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$76	40	40	+0	open	—	04-08 08:04
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?	6	$73	62	32	+30	open	—	04-04 18:15
bun stu dor 2026 04 04 dor	3	$68	48	48	+0	open	—	04-04 17:29
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	18	$67	103	50	+53	open	—	04-07 08:02
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 190m and 200m	10	$65	108	51	+57	open	—	04-06 04:32
houthi military action against israel by april 15 2026	7	$62	39	39	+0	open	—	04-04 18:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	10	$56	55	55	+0	open	—	04-12 01:55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	14	$56	75	48	+27	open	—	04-07 21:34
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	15	$55	48	48	+0	open	—	04-07 22:36
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?	10	$54	75	72	+3	open	—	04-07 17:12
nba det phi 2026 04 04 spread away 2pt5	6	$52	51	50	+1	open	—	04-04 17:30
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	7	$50	47	47	+0	open	—	04-09 21:11
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	8	$50	38	30	+8	open	—	04-21 15:00
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	14	$48	49	24	+25	open	—	04-08 06:08
bun ein koe 2026 04 05 ein	17	$47	100	0	+100	open	—	04-05 17:11
elon musk of tweets april 4 april 6 40 64	12	$42	92	0	+92	open	—	04-06 08:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 22:40:55	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 spread home 1pt5	Iraq	BUY	194	0¢	$1	0x04ef97…
06-16 22:35:04	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 spread home 1pt5	Iraq	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x854ca7…
06-16 22:18:07	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 spread home 1pt5	Iraq	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x724daa…
06-16 22:14:16	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 spread home 1pt5	Iraq	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0123b2…
06-14 02:46:00	fifwc hai sco 2026 06 13 spread away 2pt5	Scotland	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x2bb587…
06-12 20:26:25	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 spread away 2pt5	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BUY	707	1¢	$10	0x865b9d…
06-12 20:15:45	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 spread away 2pt5	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BUY	93	1¢	$1	0xfa6d7f…
06-09 08:09:55	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	85¢	$30	0x0b4b2f…
05-17 11:16:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0x1743e6…
05-17 10:58:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	6	94¢	$6	0x11ba6a…
05-10 16:56:37	Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x695400…
05-10 16:56:25	Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xbfbfba…
05-10 16:56:25	Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	98	2¢	$2	0x78840a…
05-10 16:56:12	Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xe84452…
05-10 16:52:30	Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x1ce0cd…
04-30 09:32:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xfc5d44…
04-29 16:20:42	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x483da6…
04-28 10:31:00	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	7	38¢	$3	0xbf683c…
04-27 18:25:48	Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xb221e5…
04-22 21:35:44	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 spread home 2pt5	FC Barcelona	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x549664…
04-22 21:35:42	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 spread home 2pt5	FC Barcelona	BUY	42	5¢	$2	0x544d71…
04-22 21:35:28	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 spread home 2pt5	FC Barcelona	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xf44790…
04-22 21:35:28	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 spread home 2pt5	FC Barcelona	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x22592a…
04-22 21:35:28	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 spread home 2pt5	FC Barcelona	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x1822f8…
04-22 21:35:24	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 spread home 2pt5	FC Barcelona	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x66c50f…
04-22 21:35:24	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 spread home 2pt5	FC Barcelona	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x556361…
04-22 21:35:24	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 spread home 2pt5	FC Barcelona	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x2d7cb4…
04-22 21:06:56	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 cel	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x87f416…
04-22 20:59:40	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	27	12¢	$3	0xafb19b…
04-22 20:56:08	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	23	12¢	$3	0x5794aa…
04-22 20:48:36	epl bur mac 2026 04 22 spread away 2pt5	Manchester City FC	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0xe1ec1f…
04-22 20:48:32	epl bur mac 2026 04 22 spread away 2pt5	Manchester City FC	BUY	24	2¢	$0	0x335f33…
04-22 20:48:28	epl bur mac 2026 04 22 spread away 2pt5	Manchester City FC	BUY	19	2¢	$0	0x721db5…
04-22 16:27:36	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x66a056…
04-22 13:36:32	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	10	56¢	$6	0x686fe7…
04-21 18:31:28	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	8	78¢	$6	0xbf78ca…
04-21 15:57:06	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	16	64¢	$10	0xb1a7a4…
04-21 15:27:52	Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0xef85f1…
04-21 15:00:58	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0xd414e8…
04-21 15:00:44	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xcc4dae…
04-21 15:00:22	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x8da0c3…
04-12 15:15:49	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xdee162…
04-12 13:55:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	SELL	51	85¢	$43	0x3ebcac…
04-12 05:26:05	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	36	73¢	$26	0x9bf6e7…
04-12 01:55:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	25	85¢	$21	0x830dae…
04-09 21:11:33	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	25	77¢	$19	0x3a6353…
04-08 19:43:21	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	15	5¢	$1	0xb0bbff…
04-08 19:43:19	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	35	5¢	$2	0x55bdbf…
04-08 08:04:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0xd21100…
04-08 06:16:39	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0xd6ef73…
04-08 06:08:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x2176d7…
04-07 22:44:19	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	30¢	$7	0x0d401b…
04-07 22:36:53	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	SELL	24	95¢	$23	0xe305eb…
04-07 22:26:27	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x1d059a…
04-07 22:22:29	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa5583d…
04-07 22:21:57	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0xe32348…
04-07 22:21:57	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x91875f…
04-07 22:21:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	SELL	23	24¢	$5	0x427675…
04-07 22:20:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0xb71438…
04-07 22:16:39	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	4	66¢	$3	0xd5e8e3…
04-07 22:16:23	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	SELL	3	81¢	$2	0x85d0a0…
04-07 22:03:03	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x02ff16…
04-07 21:56:39	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	SELL	6	42¢	$3	0x2d05fb…
04-07 21:52:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0xb5bccb…
04-07 21:52:27	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0x8e8a83…
04-07 21:52:27	trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	Yes	BUY	4	64¢	$3	0x3f005e…
04-07 21:52:27	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x2b06c7…
04-07 21:52:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	30	31¢	$9	0x35e0a7…
04-07 21:50:23	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0xe097ae…
04-07 21:50:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xc4a72d…
04-07 21:50:23	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x7e706e…
04-07 21:50:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x4e6f9e…
04-07 21:50:23	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x28125b…
04-07 21:50:23	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x0ab1d5…
04-07 21:50:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	SELL	23	69¢	$16	0x3342b1…
04-07 21:49:39	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x86d060…
04-07 21:47:45	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x991fb9…
04-07 21:47:33	trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	Yes	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0x039db8…
04-07 21:46:43	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x29d06d…
04-07 21:46:19	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	SELL	15	23¢	$3	0x3e4af3…
04-07 21:44:37	trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	Yes	BUY	4	64¢	$3	0xc5b78d…
04-07 21:44:21	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	24	26¢	$6	0x81b2dc…
04-07 21:41:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xc3035f…
04-07 21:41:59	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x73ff3e…
04-07 21:41:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0xa6843c…
04-07 21:40:45	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x9b8af2…
04-07 21:39:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	SELL	18	44¢	$8	0xc7aaa4…
04-07 21:34:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	BUY	12	19¢	$2	0xeb52a5…
04-07 21:33:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0x98c027…
04-07 21:32:29	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x207d58…
04-07 21:32:23	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	SELL	4	60¢	$2	0x96593f…
04-07 21:26:11	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x24b854…
04-07 21:25:53	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	3	82¢	$2	0x785b03…
04-07 21:25:41	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0xac6487…
04-07 21:25:23	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	3	82¢	$2	0xb36d48…
04-07 21:24:39	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	3	82¢	$2	0xdfa0cb…
04-07 21:24:21	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	3	81¢	$2	0xcf021f…
04-07 21:24:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	12	19¢	$2	0x898f38…
04-07 21:23:39	lol rmd nerd 2026 04 07	RMD Gaming	BUY	12	18¢	$2	0xd69f4c…
04-07 21:23:37	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	12	19¢	$2	0xe64a08…