Noxious-Newsletter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$272

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

25.6%

Resolved

Trades

571

lifetime

Volume

$11.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 07-05 00:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

40% 100% +$18

Politics

32% 0% $-290

Tech

19% — —

Crypto

5% — —

Sports

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 31 2026 20260624195228149 733 235 667 821	28	$1.1K	2,073	0	+2,073	open	—	06-29 10:24
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by march 31	4	$563	337	264	+73	open	—	03-28 21:34
will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	14	$533	1,061	0	+1,061	open	—	07-01 07:54
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	27	$522	964	124	+840	open	—	06-30 12:18
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	12	$423	538	92	+447	open	—	07-01 17:45
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	42	$301	342	142	+200	open	—	06-22 23:30
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	8	$296	307	0	+307	open	—	03-28 22:17
will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	12	$294	435	35	+400	open	—	07-01 22:20
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$276	300	0	+300	open	—	06-01 17:29
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	10	$268	534	0	+534	open	—	06-03 01:16
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	16	$235	375	0	+374	open	—	06-22 23:31
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31	10	$222	426	0	+426	open	—	06-24 17:28
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	13	$215	352	68	+284	open	—	06-12 11:15
will trump issue a veto in 2026 20260624151248095	7	$211	300	100	+200	open	—	06-28 11:47
nba lebron james and bronny james jrpt to play together in 2026 27 20260630182039143	4	$206	400	0	+400	open	—	07-01 08:26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$199	350	0	+350	Yes	$-199	02-06 21:08
ukraine election called by march 31 2026	3	$198	100	100	+0	open	—	03-24 23:56
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	6	$190	385	0	+385	open	—	05-10 02:27
will byron buxton hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 mlb regular season 20260702210646862	7	$188	289	91	+198	open	—	07-04 13:29
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	4	$187	371	0	+371	open	—	06-02 17:12
us government removes public access to another major ai model in 2026 20260703202936862	8	$183	332	0	+332	open	—	07-04 21:53
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	17	$159	200	0	+200	open	—	04-07 12:56
will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	13	$153	273	10	+263	open	—	06-25 19:13
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027?	5	$147	100	99	+1	open	—	06-21 07:09
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	9	$138	265	21	+245	open	—	07-01 11:14
will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913	4	$135	90	87	+2	open	—	06-23 17:08
will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by july 31 20260623155722752	8	$126	200	0	+200	open	—	06-25 02:11
will russia capture lyman by march 31 2026 494	5	$124	200	0	+200	open	—	02-06 17:55
will ink launch a token by december 31 2026	5	$118	100	100	+0	open	—	06-25 19:18
SlingshotDAO FDV above $200M one day after launch?	6	$117	200	0	+199	open	—	06-26 21:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 15:57:34	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	Yes	BUY	110	4¢	$4	0x44ff89…
07-05 00:11:43	moscow air traffic suspended by august 31 20260702184246100	No	SELL	1	15¢	$0	0x6ca693…
07-04 21:53:01	us government removes public access to another major ai model in 2026 20260703202936862	No	BUY	47	73¢	$34	0x506a87…
07-04 19:34:52	us government removes public access to another major ai model in 2026 20260703202936862	No	BUY	63	71¢	$45	0x242dc9…
07-04 18:29:02	us government removes public access to another major ai model in 2026 20260703202936862	Yes	BUY	110	43¢	$47	0xdedf8c…
07-04 16:42:32	moscow air traffic suspended by august 31 20260702184246100	Yes	BUY	90	86¢	$77	0x8fdcf0…
07-04 13:57:32	us government removes public access to another major ai model in 2026 20260703202936862	Yes	BUY	56	44¢	$25	0xc567a9…
07-04 13:51:07	moscow air traffic suspended by august 31 20260702184246100	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x4ff05b…
07-04 13:40:16	moscow air traffic suspended by august 31 20260702184246100	Yes	BUY	9	83¢	$8	0x629227…
07-04 13:31:53	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	36¢	$4	0xfef2a5…
07-04 13:29:53	will byron buxton hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 mlb regular season 20260702210646862	Yes	BUY	99	48¢	$47	0xdf05bf…
07-04 12:10:56	will byron buxton hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 mlb regular season 20260702210646862	No	BUY	99	67¢	$66	0x091066…
07-04 12:04:10	will byron buxton hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 mlb regular season 20260702210646862	Yes	SELL	27	45¢	$12	0x64a80a…
07-04 11:54:11	will byron buxton hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 mlb regular season 20260702210646862	Yes	SELL	36	14¢	$5	0x2193b6…
07-04 11:49:11	will byron buxton hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 mlb regular season 20260702210646862	Yes	SELL	28	26¢	$7	0xb54664…
07-04 11:41:05	will byron buxton hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 mlb regular season 20260702210646862	Yes	BUY	16	55¢	$9	0xe8ba68…
07-04 11:26:04	will byron buxton hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 mlb regular season 20260702210646862	Yes	BUY	75	55¢	$41	0x3ce3e5…
07-04 10:57:38	us government removes public access to another major ai model in 2026 20260703202936862	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x671b5c…
07-04 10:57:38	us government removes public access to another major ai model in 2026 20260703202936862	No	BUY	49	57¢	$28	0x3416a9…
07-04 10:53:13	us government removes public access to another major ai model in 2026 20260703202936862	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xe5945e…
07-04 10:53:13	us government removes public access to another major ai model in 2026 20260703202936862	No	BUY	0	57¢	$0	0xd5600b…
07-03 15:09:10	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	33¢	$19	0x44c549…
07-03 14:00:22	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x3b1d51…
07-03 12:48:07	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x1dc59e…
07-01 22:20:56	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	Yes	SELL	1	57¢	$0	0x50c3da…
07-01 22:20:37	will krakens valuation hit high 11 by july 31 20260629184742675	No	SELL	0	15¢	$0	0x027b70…
07-01 20:34:29	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	Yes	SELL	34	58¢	$20	0x7ec5ae…
07-01 20:09:46	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	Yes	BUY	35	81¢	$28	0x10acfa…
07-01 19:59:28	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	Yes	BUY	35	80¢	$28	0x525f32…
07-01 18:24:25	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	Yes	BUY	43	74¢	$32	0x3e30ec…
07-01 18:19:28	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	Yes	BUY	21	81¢	$17	0xa238a7…
07-01 18:05:53	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xa9cf32…
07-01 17:45:38	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	BUY	110	61¢	$67	0x012fbd…
07-01 16:51:02	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	110	60¢	$66	0xbc7a3b…
07-01 15:41:20	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	No	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0xa5f921…
07-01 13:52:31	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	BUY	14	33¢	$5	0xde35c1…
07-01 13:39:55	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x460b24…
07-01 13:38:20	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	BUY	95	44¢	$42	0x2189ae…
07-01 13:19:28	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x0bdd91…
07-01 13:15:46	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	BUY	0	44¢	$0	0xb567b3…
07-01 12:56:08	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	74	82¢	$61	0x8a2fcd…
07-01 11:34:32	will krakens valuation hit high 11 by july 31 20260629184742675	Yes	BUY	62	84¢	$52	0xc6e575…
07-01 11:29:29	will krakens valuation hit high 11 by july 31 20260629184742675	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x3d9db2…
07-01 11:14:29	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	Yes	BUY	23	58¢	$13	0xf83a04…
07-01 11:14:29	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	SELL	1	66¢	$0	0xab70ca…
07-01 08:26:32	nba lebron james and bronny james jrpt to play together in 2026 27 20260630182039143	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x434d4a…
07-01 08:24:46	will krakens valuation hit high 11 by july 31 20260629184742675	No	BUY	82	19¢	$16	0xd19453…
07-01 08:04:17	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xfa2933…
07-01 07:54:32	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	BUY	110	23¢	$25	0x05e9ac…
07-01 07:42:02	nba lebron james and bronny james jrpt to play together in 2026 27 20260630182039143	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x51c749…
07-01 07:31:17	nba lebron james and bronny james jrpt to play together in 2026 27 20260630182039143	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x0b8ea8…
07-01 07:04:32	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	Yes	BUY	57	57¢	$32	0xbe0689…
07-01 06:43:20	nba lebron james and bronny james jrpt to play together in 2026 27 20260630182039143	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x156cc6…
07-01 06:40:46	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xddd0b9…
07-01 04:52:25	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	110	76¢	$84	0xdf1f71…
07-01 03:04:43	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	BUY	110	23¢	$25	0x52786e…
07-01 03:02:55	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	110	81¢	$89	0x77ffce…
07-01 02:43:47	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	BUY	90	19¢	$17	0xba01d6…
06-30 23:30:26	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xa42fb4…
06-30 23:08:49	iran successfully targets shipping by august 31 20260629202434614	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x102d3a…
06-30 22:55:50	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x1b07db…
06-30 22:27:20	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	25	82¢	$20	0x968300…
06-30 22:24:50	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	BUY	51	21¢	$11	0x405f7c…
06-30 21:38:01	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0xe87d77…
06-30 20:24:50	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	BUY	9	17¢	$2	0x87ce70…
06-30 20:19:38	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xa5d7fb…
06-30 20:19:25	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0xd4585b…
06-30 20:09:04	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x35cfe9…
06-30 20:08:32	iran successfully targets shipping by august 31 20260629202434614	No	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x1071ef…
06-30 20:01:07	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x1714ee…
06-30 12:18:50	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	SELL	24	41¢	$10	0xd1fcf7…
06-30 09:15:59	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	BUY	32	41¢	$13	0xa8b8b8…
06-30 08:38:47	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	SELL	91	82¢	$75	0x1c63b5…
06-30 08:17:13	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xbb5e86…
06-30 07:13:01	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x5e2318…
06-30 07:07:59	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x6fe441…
06-30 06:10:04	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x6e7b15…
06-30 05:35:23	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	92	84¢	$77	0xd28312…
06-30 03:43:07	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x0a5798…
06-30 03:35:52	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	BUY	17	41¢	$7	0x69b1df…
06-30 02:56:04	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x4fb609…
06-30 02:45:01	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	16	57¢	$9	0x6538ba…
06-30 02:26:50	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xe7d9b4…
06-30 02:01:29	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0xf32b42…
06-30 01:04:25	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xc88b4b…
06-29 23:53:49	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	SELL	100	39¢	$39	0x4cbb3d…
06-29 23:48:50	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	BUY	15	41¢	$6	0xd4bc60…
06-29 23:48:50	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	BUY	43	41¢	$17	0x4dd97d…
06-29 23:48:49	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	BUY	42	41¢	$17	0x81c499…
06-29 23:48:47	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0xc70033…
06-29 23:37:13	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	63	56¢	$35	0xc4edbb…
06-29 22:29:34	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	19	56¢	$11	0x3560c9…
06-29 22:28:46	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x11657e…
06-29 22:07:10	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	44	61¢	$27	0x36d824…
06-29 21:33:49	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	BUY	44	40¢	$18	0xf371db…
06-29 21:19:29	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	BUY	12	44¢	$5	0x82989b…
06-29 21:19:17	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	BUY	44	44¢	$19	0x33b2a6…
06-29 20:50:26	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	Yes	BUY	44	42¢	$19	0x84590b…
06-29 20:50:23	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x2e6bf2…
06-29 15:04:05	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	41	35¢	$14	0x58f234…