Unhappy-Garage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$442

Unrealized P&L

+$36

Hit rate

55.9%

Resolved

494

Trades

1,565

lifetime

Volume

$22.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$391

12 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 10-24 20:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 100 days

Categories

Politics

53% 68% +$48

Other

28% 64% +$181

Crypto

12% 47% -$412

Sports

6% 40% -$130

Tech

2% 54% -$130

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	No	+200	$137	88¢	$176	+$39	09-17 15:17
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+72	$45	98¢	$70	+$25	05-24 14:18
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+55	$50	98¢	$54	+$4	05-24 14:16
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	+56	$45	66¢	$37	-$8	10-23 15:31
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	+23	$18	69¢	$16	-$2	10-21 12:59
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+11	$10	97¢	$11	+$1	10-21 12:37
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	+11	$10	94¢	$10	+$0	10-21 12:46
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	+5	$5	96¢	$5	$0	10-21 12:58
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	+81	$14	6¢	$4	-$9	05-16 18:50
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+72	$10	4¢	$3	-$7	05-11 16:36
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+26	$10	8¢	$2	-$8	05-12 08:00
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+1	$1	98¢	$1	$0	10-21 12:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	4	$1.1K	838	838	+0	Yes	-$157	04-10 12:18
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	2	$1.0K	2,117	2,117	+0	No	+$100	04-20 14:54
us strikes iraq by march 7	6	$1.0K	615	615	+0	Yes	+$226	03-09 12:34
will israel strike gaza on march 9 2026	5	$880	2,383	0	+2,383	No	-$880	03-13 10:59
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$704	372	372	+0	No	+$5	05-21 17:55
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	21	$552	1,413	0	+1,413	Yes	-$552	04-27 03:41
will iran strike israel on march 6	10	$466	7,495	97	+7,398	No	-$283	03-11 13:55
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	3	$462	6,884	6,884	+0	Yes	-$38	05-26 13:26
will iran strike uae again in march	2	$435	237	237	+0	Yes	+$38	04-06 02:16
will israel strike gaza on march 6 2026	2	$377	3,973	0	+3,973	No	-$377	03-09 14:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$320	424	335	+89	No	+$82	06-15 03:50
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4PM ET	28	$318	301	265	+35	Up	+$100	06-01 20:59
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$264	1,226	1,226	+0	No	+$164	05-24 02:29
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	16	$253	534	0	+534	Yes	+$281	09-22 05:14
will another country strike iran by march 7 528	1	$250	821	0	+821	No	+$571	03-03 18:07
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	12	$233	1,334	334	+1,000	No	-$131	06-03 03:23
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	4	$228	299	0	+299	No	+$72	05-15 02:05
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	4	$223	115	115	+0	No	+$3	05-24 14:25
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	3	$205	656	0	+656	No	+$451	03-07 15:07
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	2	$205	287	0	+287	No	-$205	04-06 10:11
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intelligence by December 31, 2026?	2	$192	102	102	+0	No	-$8	06-03 20:49
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	2	$189	310	310	+0	Yes	-$9	07-01 15:07
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	2	$177	167	167	+0	Yes	+$77	04-08 07:02
wti closes above 96 on june 3 2026	9	$177	245	245	+0	Yes	-$49	06-03 20:34
will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	2	$172	198	198	+0	No	-$41	04-03 05:25
will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	16	$148	549	0	+549	No	-$148	07-02 17:22
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	4	$146	106	106	+0	No	+$12	05-24 01:47
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	4	$140	112	112	+0	open	—	05-31 01:42
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	3	$137	200	0	+200	open	—	09-17 15:17
will iran strike jordan in march 375	2	$133	152	0	+152	Yes	+$19	03-09 14:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 20:24:41	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	35	17¢	$6	0x9e126f…
10-24 20:16:02	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x5209c5…
10-24 19:06:21	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x136889…
10-24 14:25:29	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	17¢	$6	0x4b08fe…
10-24 11:30:03	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0xd9d359…
10-24 06:45:51	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0x857a8a…
10-24 05:02:15	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	214	28¢	$60	0xada1de…
10-23 20:18:24	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0x33a14b…
10-23 19:06:06	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0x744cfb…
10-23 18:21:33	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x15e3c3…
10-23 18:01:12	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x9dcddd…
10-23 17:59:23	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xde1778…
10-23 16:38:15	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0xbf65c6…
10-23 16:32:11	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0x02238d…
10-23 16:09:36	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,076	3¢	$30	0xdda1a4…
10-23 16:09:00	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	210	3¢	$6	0xa9fd65…
10-23 16:07:09	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x07da41…
10-23 16:02:33	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xe895bb…
10-23 16:02:33	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	54	32¢	$17	0xca0d27…
10-23 16:01:35	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x9e25c7…
10-23 15:36:50	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x5e241b…
10-23 15:36:50	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x4e9895…
10-23 15:35:50	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	80¢	$9	0xb08d0b…
10-23 15:35:35	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	36	19¢	$7	0x572f38…
10-23 15:35:26	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x2c0d20…
10-23 15:35:11	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x58ccf9…
10-23 15:35:02	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	69	17¢	$12	0x1b8d50…
10-23 15:31:51	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	BUY	56	80¢	$45	0x33f626…
10-23 15:24:08	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,404	3¢	$38	0x2fb902…
10-23 15:22:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,390	4¢	$50	0xd84302…
10-21 21:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xc9e75e…
10-21 21:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xf447c7…
10-21 21:52:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xcd44aa…
10-21 21:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x9cc883…
10-21 21:39:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe6517c…
10-21 21:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x41bc17…
10-21 21:32:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x755f79…
10-21 21:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x1bf884…
10-21 21:29:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x43a843…
10-21 15:37:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$3	0xeca930…
10-21 15:35:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xf54e4a…
10-21 15:21:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x41bc86…
10-21 15:16:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xf251db…
10-21 15:16:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x3b1254…
10-21 15:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	SELL	19	66¢	$13	0x7d8d5b…
10-21 15:13:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xad9f73…
10-21 15:03:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	SELL	23	73¢	$17	0xe6a61b…
10-21 15:01:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xd0a00f…
10-21 15:01:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xb8439c…
10-21 14:58:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	SELL	49	56¢	$28	0xc34b0c…
10-21 14:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x45a6d6…
10-21 14:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x7ac482…
10-21 14:56:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	54¢	$5	0x1e43ee…
10-21 14:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x9dd357…
10-21 14:55:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x174a43…
10-21 14:54:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	SELL	9	54¢	$5	0x6718e7…
10-21 14:52:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xf9b6a6…
10-21 14:52:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x5429e8…
10-21 14:51:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x8cf103…
10-21 14:50:14	Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	No	BUY	80	15¢	$12	0xbecd47…
10-21 13:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	SELL	1	53¢	$1	0xbf1363…
10-21 13:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x95683a…
10-21 13:06:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xadc9d1…
10-21 12:59:09	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	BUY	23	77¢	$18	0x9455ea…
10-21 12:58:44	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf97484…
10-21 12:56:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x371e4a…
10-21 12:55:09	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 11?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x151370…
10-21 12:54:56	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 11?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xe23545…
10-21 12:49:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x3a3d2d…
10-21 12:46:30	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x8d38da…
10-21 12:43:27	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x30601e…
10-21 12:38:15	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8a10d3…
10-21 12:37:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x12eda0…
10-21 12:35:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x35ae18…
10-21 12:34:00	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb32900…
10-21 12:31:24	Nuggets vs. Thunder	Nuggets	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x932d79…
10-21 12:31:11	Kings vs. Clippers	Kings	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x14d41a…
10-21 12:31:03	Warriors vs. Lakers	Warriors	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x292eaf…
10-21 12:30:51	Jazz vs. Grizzlies	Jazz	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xed1812…
10-21 12:30:44	Mavericks vs. Rockets	Mavericks	BUY	62	24¢	$15	0x666032…
10-21 12:30:33	Pacers vs. Pelicans	Pacers	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0x7f194e…
10-21 12:30:24	Bulls vs. Raptors	Bulls	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x058ccf…
10-21 12:30:11	Timberwolves vs. Heat	Heat	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x057f92…
10-21 12:29:57	Hornets vs. Nets	Hornets	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x88e909…
10-21 12:29:48	Bucks vs. Wizards	Bucks	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x78c5b2…
10-21 12:29:35	Hawks vs. Magic	Hawks	BUY	14	44¢	$6	0x5a4a32…
10-21 12:18:08	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xd0f678…
09-22 05:14:21	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	40¢	$45	0xa19a9f…
09-17 15:17:21	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	53¢	$48	0xd2770f…
09-17 15:17:01	Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	No	BUY	80	75¢	$60	0xacac89…
09-17 15:16:27	Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xb9b20d…
09-17 15:16:04	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0xc4bacc…
09-17 15:14:40	Ethereum Up or Down - September 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x33c5fb…
09-17 15:11:03	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 15:10 UTC	Up	BUY	75	33¢	$25	0xfe96e6…
09-17 15:11:03	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 15:10 UTC	Up	BUY	76	33¢	$25	0x052b9f…
09-17 15:01:15	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x07ffbd…
09-17 15:00:49	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x842854…
09-17 14:56:03	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x98e233…
09-17 14:55:33	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5fa9de…
09-17 14:55:24	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x328b84…