Unfolded-Radiosonde-Halibut — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

63.3%

Resolved

716

Trades

1,363

lifetime

Volume

$9.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-07

last 08-09 15:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 87 days

Categories

Other

69% 55% +$138

Crypto

14% 33% -$183

Politics

11% 55% +$32

Sports

6% 34% -$18

Tech

1% 71% +$9

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes		+0	$2	6¢	$0	-$2	07-18 09:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	9	$205	267	254	+14	Yes	+$14	06-08 04:02
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in July?	3	$174	180	180	+0	Yes	+$131	07-18 08:39
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	5	$161	205	205	+0	No	+$45	05-31 09:25
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	4	$94	125	125	+0	open	—	06-02 20:32
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	2	$87	65	65	+0	Yes	+$39	05-29 13:43
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 27?	2	$86	48	48	+0	No	+$11	07-27 15:58
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	2	$76	78	78	+0	No	+$24	05-29 17:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	4	$75	80	80	+0	Down	-$7	05-23 04:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$74	71	71	+0	No	+$2	05-22 02:22
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	2	$72	61	61	+0	No	+$23	05-29 02:52
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 23?	2	$65	41	41	+0	No	+$16	07-23 14:06
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 27?	2	$64	36	36	+0	No	+$8	07-27 15:58
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?	4	$63	124	124	+0	Yes	-$46	08-03 13:04
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 23?	2	$60	36	36	+0	No	+$12	07-23 14:07
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 3?	2	$59	72	71	+1	Yes	-$52	08-03 20:01
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on August 6?	2	$57	67	67	+1	Yes	-$48	08-06 06:45
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 4?	1	$56	73	0	+73	No	+$17	08-03 04:30
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov	5	$56	30	30	+0	Casper Ruud	+$2	05-13 19:49
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 23?	5	$55	34	34	+0	No	+$13	07-23 14:07
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	2	$55	119	119	+0	Yes	-$5	05-31 11:41
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 24?	2	$54	38	38	+0	No	+$4	07-23 14:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	6	$54	428	100	+328	Up	-$28	05-23 02:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	3	$53	76	76	+0	Yes	+$4	05-13 02:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	12	$53	1,677	1,677	+0	No	-$3	07-21 22:20
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	2	$53	41	41	+0	Yes	-$7	05-31 16:12
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 4?	1	$52	66	0	+66	No	+$15	08-03 13:18
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	6	$52	45	45	+0	Yes	$0	05-12 03:40
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	6	$51	41	41	+0	Yes	+$1	08-09 15:43
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	2	$51	64	64	+0	No	+$3	05-31 15:25
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	13	$50	9,629	9,629	+0	No	-$31	07-20 00:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 15:43:39	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	68¢	$5	0x7b5af1…
08-09 15:43:30	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0xa74728…
08-09 15:43:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 7?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xdcf9fc…
08-09 15:43:09	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	41	63¢	$26	0x4bcf22…
08-08 00:51:40	Will Hong Kong have between 525-550mm of precipitation in August?	No	SELL	27	65¢	$17	0xaaefb5…
08-08 00:51:16	will edu aguirre attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806200934310	Yes	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x1a45ff…
08-08 00:51:07	will joao felix attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803204947260	Yes	SELL	8	33¢	$3	0x2f684e…
08-08 00:50:55	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0x894ce1…
08-08 00:50:45	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0xfc3e2c…
08-07 14:46:43	will edu aguirre attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806200934310	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x641f17…
08-07 07:56:07	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on August 7?	No	SELL	69	4¢	$3	0x28d36f…
08-06 17:01:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 7?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x4e67d5…
08-06 16:51:06	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 7?	No	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0x1fb48d…
08-06 08:22:18	spx opens up or down on august 6 2026	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x5f1a80…
08-06 08:01:36	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 6?	No	SELL	68	5¢	$3	0x8296af…
08-06 06:45:08	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on August 6?	No	SELL	67	6¢	$4	0xe898ae…
08-06 00:45:15	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 7?	No	BUY	32	77¢	$24	0x13581c…
08-06 00:40:56	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 7?	No	BUY	61	64¢	$39	0x5a1c91…
08-06 00:37:48	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 6?	No	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0x7e7bb8…
08-06 00:34:53	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on August 7?	No	BUY	70	56¢	$39	0x258001…
08-06 00:25:17	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x3def9b…
08-06 00:19:14	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 7?	No	BUY	63	76¢	$48	0xb880da…
08-05 20:11:38	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 6?	No	BUY	55	69¢	$38	0x9ac2dd…
08-05 20:03:03	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6?	No	BUY	70	54¢	$38	0xbf5023…
08-05 18:55:30	will joao felix attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803204947260	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xf436e1…
08-05 06:31:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 5?	No	SELL	65	3¢	$2	0x239637…
08-05 05:43:12	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 5?	No	SELL	62	5¢	$3	0xcf4087…
08-05 00:06:48	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 6?	No	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0xf5a963…
08-05 00:06:44	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 6?	No	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0xbc14fa…
08-05 00:06:26	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on August 6?	No	BUY	67	78¢	$52	0x93f7a5…
08-05 00:06:21	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 6?	No	BUY	64	63¢	$40	0xd10371…
08-05 00:03:59	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 6?	No	BUY	68	61¢	$42	0x7245b1…
08-04 17:44:24	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x422fb3…
08-04 17:31:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 5?	No	BUY	66	62¢	$41	0x767810…
08-04 16:15:21	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 5?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0xf48b56…
08-04 08:39:57	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 5?	No	BUY	58	77¢	$44	0x5a2fb5…
08-04 06:12:03	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 4?	No	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x65c528…
08-04 04:23:14	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 4?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x780f71…
08-04 00:47:09	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 5?	No	BUY	42	80¢	$34	0x73688d…
08-04 00:25:53	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 5?	No	BUY	63	55¢	$34	0x5b177b…
08-04 00:25:51	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 5?	No	BUY	67	57¢	$38	0x4f3a91…
08-04 00:25:48	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 5?	No	BUY	61	79¢	$48	0x8e556a…
08-03 20:01:12	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 3?	No	SELL	71	5¢	$4	0xba374d…
08-03 19:00:03	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 4?	No	BUY	17	80¢	$14	0xd5d0e3…
08-03 16:13:12	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 4?	No	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0x02082a…
08-03 13:18:36	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 4?	No	BUY	66	78¢	$52	0xae5fe9…
08-03 13:04:02	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?	No	SELL	18	5¢	$1	0xf22a05…
08-03 12:57:41	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?	No	SELL	106	7¢	$7	0xd33af6…
08-03 04:30:48	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 4?	No	BUY	73	77¢	$56	0x00b76b…
08-03 00:44:18	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 3?	No	BUY	13	80¢	$10	0x5893f3…
08-03 00:44:17	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 3?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x914ce4…
08-03 00:33:51	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?	No	BUY	17	44¢	$7	0x5d1ac3…
08-03 00:31:05	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?	No	BUY	107	44¢	$47	0x8cdacd…
08-03 00:14:05	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 4?	No	BUY	73	60¢	$44	0xdc5916…
08-02 22:00:30	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on August 3?	Yes	SELL	3	6¢	$0	0xe5177e…
08-02 20:03:15	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 3?	No	BUY	72	77¢	$55	0xdfc1ac…
08-02 16:26:14	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x5dc52a…
08-02 03:01:51	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x6c0fb6…
08-01 22:42:03	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 2?	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0x3a3847…
08-01 22:22:51	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 2?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x877271…
08-01 22:22:50	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on August 2?	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xdbf66b…
08-01 16:04:42	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 2?	Yes	SELL	4	4¢	$0	0x2b9872…
08-01 15:19:12	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 2?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x6a8954…
08-01 13:37:44	will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xe23d44…
08-01 13:03:30	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on August 1?	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0xa4b578…
08-01 12:54:42	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 1?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x92cf95…
08-01 12:00:42	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 44°C on August 1?	Yes	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x7c8618…
08-01 06:50:33	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 45°C on August 1?	Yes	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0x7f577e…
08-01 06:20:05	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 1?	No	SELL	12	5¢	$1	0xcf7cc4…
08-01 06:13:21	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 1?	No	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x09db63…
08-01 05:44:41	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on August 1?	No	SELL	63	2¢	$1	0x4dc45e…
08-01 05:42:30	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 1?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xb3e4a6…
08-01 05:38:12	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 1?	Yes	SELL	3	7¢	$0	0x548101…
08-01 05:07:38	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 1?	No	SELL	9	8¢	$1	0xbeeddc…
08-01 00:03:56	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 2?	No	BUY	12	77¢	$9	0x465135…
08-01 00:03:48	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 2?	No	BUY	55	78¢	$43	0x41d4cf…
08-01 00:03:44	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on August 2?	No	BUY	61	78¢	$48	0x0a12b4…
08-01 00:03:42	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on August 2?	No	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0xe0f98c…
07-31 22:14:59	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on August 1?	No	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0xa60e72…
07-31 22:13:12	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on August 1?	No	BUY	29	50¢	$14	0x77bf25…
07-31 22:13:06	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on August 1?	No	BUY	29	50¢	$14	0xc3e454…
07-31 18:57:51	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x7975f7…
07-31 18:16:09	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on July 31?	Yes	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0xef8667…
07-31 17:48:53	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0x73162d…
07-31 17:44:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	3	18¢	$1	0x8b4e1e…
07-31 16:43:24	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x660974…
07-31 16:43:18	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 43°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x28e106…
07-31 16:41:45	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 45°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xc199c1…
07-31 16:41:03	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 44°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x7173c9…
07-31 15:29:56	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xdf1088…
07-31 15:29:50	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xc1c960…
07-31 15:05:32	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x293b90…
07-31 15:05:29	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xc252a4…
07-31 14:52:15	spy up or down on july 31 2026	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x9e76af…
07-31 13:27:29	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 31?	No	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0x56b5a1…
07-31 13:09:59	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 31?	Yes	SELL	3	7¢	$0	0xa0c464…
07-31 11:53:32	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 31?	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0xe2a808…
07-31 11:01:12	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on July 31?	No	SELL	41	2¢	$1	0x0d0d9e…
07-31 08:54:03	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on July 31?	Yes	SELL	4	9¢	$0	0xf61f8e…
07-31 08:23:03	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 1?	No	BUY	9	76¢	$7	0x20fa1c…