Agile-Understanding — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.93K

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

67.2%

Resolved

12,954

Trades

26,773

lifetime

Volume

$135.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$20

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-31 07:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 250 days

Categories

Crypto

61% 53% -$1,183

Other

38% 50% -$1,721

Sports

1% 57% -$7

Politics

0% 52% -$25

Tech

0% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes		+10	$10	98¢	$10	+$0	10-29 01:22
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes		+10	$9	94¢	$9	+$0	10-31 07:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cs2 sng imperi 2026 03 12 game2	10	$895	450	450	+0	Imperial Academy	+$2	03-12 16:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 13:30 UTC	209	$538	794	434	+360	Up	-$45	03-06 13:46
bitcoin up or down march 6 5am et	157	$463	408	394	+14	Down	+$11	03-06 11:58
bitcoin up or down march 6 10am et	123	$437	324	286	+37	Up	-$12	03-06 16:32
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 16:30 UTC	147	$412	419	338	+82	Up	-$28	03-06 16:45
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or below on May 21?	2	$400	200	200	+0	No	$0	05-21 08:33
cs2 g2a innerc 2026 03 11	8	$400	400	0	+400	Inner Circle Academy	+$0	03-11 22:23
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds?	15	$400	200	200	+0	Even	+$0	05-22 23:27
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?	16	$400	200	200	+0	Even	+$0	05-23 07:00
lol ucam1 bw 2026 03 10 game1	13	$390	390	0	+390	UCAM Esports Club	+$0	03-10 16:45
Valorant: AB3 Esports vs Tezcat Gaming (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season	8	$371	186	186	+0	Tezcat Gaming	+$0	05-25 15:08
cs2 ast10 furia 2026 03 10 map handicap home 1pt5	8	$350	350	0	+350	Astralis	+$0	03-10 22:48
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 13:45 UTC	103	$306	281	244	+37	Down	-$5	03-06 13:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 13:15 UTC	123	$292	280	232	+48	Up	+$21	03-06 13:28
bitcoin up or down march 6 4am et	114	$292	321	178	+143	Down	-$2	03-06 09:50
bitcoin up or down march 6 9am et	127	$283	249	220	+29	Down	-$4	03-06 14:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 03:45 UTC	21	$280	408	177	+231	Down	+$303	03-13 03:50
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 13:20 UTC	43	$277	341	238	+103	Up	+$4	03-14 13:24
cs2 am 100t 2026 03 09 game2	9	$270	270	0	+270	AM Gaming	+$0	03-09 20:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 06:45 UTC	14	$211	212	0	+212	Down	+$1	03-10 07:02
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or higher on May 31?	4	$203	104	103	+0	No	+$4	05-31 14:41
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 31?	4	$201	101	101	+0	No	+$1	05-31 12:51
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 31?	4	$200	101	101	+1	No	+$1	05-31 17:54
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15?	3	$200	201	201	+0	Yes	-$200	05-15 11:49
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 15?	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-15 14:00
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 15?	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-15 14:00
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 28?	2	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	05-28 15:00
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	1	$200	200	0	+200	JD Gaming	+$0	05-02 09:48
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner	1	$200	200	0	+200	NEW VISION	+$0	05-03 16:06
First Blood in Game 1?	1	$200	200	0	+200	T1	+$0	05-20 09:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 07:04:37	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x64beb3…
10-31 07:03:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x14b4cd…
10-31 00:46:21	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0x6ed5e0…
10-29 14:14:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x0f0061…
10-29 14:12:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x97da5c…
10-29 14:12:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe60654…
10-29 03:40:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xb7fe25…
10-29 02:56:40	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x5009cb…
10-29 01:34:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4b15aa…
10-29 01:22:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x6f3bcc…
10-28 15:31:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xdf5f01…
10-28 15:28:49	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa1f368…
10-28 12:32:17	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x7d4778…
10-28 12:29:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb79a15…
10-27 15:29:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xc9e50f…
10-27 15:27:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7a32bc…
10-27 01:06:36	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x40cf9f…
10-26 01:59:30	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x830ccc…
10-25 02:15:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 25?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x1f2ba9…
10-25 01:44:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xcb9bfc…
10-24 13:11:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 25?	Yes	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x9216bc…
10-24 08:07:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 25?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x1524bc…
10-24 05:12:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x804751…
10-24 02:19:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xa472ea…
10-24 01:42:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x8739d6…
10-24 01:41:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xe2d8dd…
10-24 01:41:02	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x6da26d…
10-23 02:54:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x1cd9c5…
10-22 01:52:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x77e925…
10-22 01:50:30	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x64183a…
10-22 01:49:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xd86e16…
10-21 02:12:56	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x04dbcc…
10-20 02:12:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xbdc2cd…
10-20 02:11:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x66e5e2…
10-20 02:10:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x685d22…
10-20 02:10:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xa34053…
10-20 02:08:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xd43747…
10-19 02:11:29	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xc136cc…
10-19 02:08:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x1a954f…
10-18 05:06:17	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xce335d…
10-18 05:05:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xfae69a…
10-17 06:52:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 18?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0xa0e8bf…
10-17 05:20:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xe824c7…
10-17 05:20:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xa40127…
10-17 05:18:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 18?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xd1e830…
10-16 16:43:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 17?	Yes	BUY	70	1¢	$1	0x7a51cc…
10-16 16:34:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 17?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x725bb8…
10-16 16:09:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 17?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x2cb530…
10-16 15:12:34	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xfb159b…
10-16 01:55:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 16?	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x764616…
10-16 01:53:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 16?	Yes	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0x0aeb48…
10-16 01:45:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 16?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x3ce578…
10-15 00:39:56	bitcoin above 80k on october 15 2026	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x8a5bcb…
10-14 17:09:34	googl close above 345 on october 14 2026	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xaaa589…
10-14 08:13:28	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xf39916…
10-14 08:11:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 14?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x6027fd…
10-13 05:04:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 15?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x078851…
10-13 05:02:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 14?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x5fc24c…
10-13 01:36:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 13?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x060ffc…
10-12 05:00:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 14?	Yes	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0xa4a989…
10-12 05:00:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 13?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x3028f8…
10-12 04:59:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 12?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xcafdc3…
10-10 15:15:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 13?	Yes	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x8a6300…
10-10 11:42:37	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x6a0d84…
10-10 09:32:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 12?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x411991…
10-10 09:31:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 11?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x6447d3…
09-01 04:35:03	bitcoin above 78k on september 1 2026	Yes	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x1071f5…
09-01 04:32:07	bitcoin above 78k on september 1 2026	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xe3320f…
08-31 05:13:48	bitcoin above 76k on august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x2fc2b4…
08-31 05:08:49	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 29 to August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x062360…
08-30 12:13:01	bitcoin above 78k on august 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xc0eb73…
08-29 12:01:03	xrp up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xafe91c…
08-29 11:49:00	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0x8216e4…
08-29 10:04:12	solana up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0xefc886…
08-29 10:00:12	xrp up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0xaf592b…
08-29 10:00:09	solana up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x0d7508…
08-29 08:31:51	solana up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0x405e9f…
08-29 07:53:06	solana up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xcfc0ca…
08-29 07:53:06	solana up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x1c0283…
08-29 06:34:00	xrp up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x1c1914…
08-29 06:13:55	xrp up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x994919…
08-29 06:07:39	xrp up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xf3472e…
08-29 04:36:09	solana up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x49c5f9…
08-29 04:35:10	solana up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xde32dc…
08-29 04:35:09	solana up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xb16d2b…
08-29 04:00:27	xrp up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0xcbc111…
08-28 21:23:09	bitcoin up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2c6b40…
08-28 20:30:49	ethereum up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x7b29f9…
08-28 18:38:25	bitcoin up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x8d04d1…
08-28 18:23:55	ethereum up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xe1fbcb…
08-28 18:23:55	bitcoin up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x297cd4…
08-28 18:22:28	ethereum up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x1d895d…
08-28 18:22:13	ethereum up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xbf632e…
08-28 18:20:01	ethereum up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x7d8305…
08-28 18:17:22	ethereum up or down on august 29 2026	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xdfce27…
08-28 10:07:33	ethereum up or down on august 28 2026	Up	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x26bb1f…
08-28 10:04:31	xrp up or down on august 28 2026	Up	BUY	4	10¢	$0	0x6e9b80…
08-28 10:00:13	xrp up or down on august 28 2026	Up	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x8c6674…
08-28 09:21:43	xrp up or down on august 28 2026	Up	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x9941f1…
08-28 09:03:52	xrp up or down on august 28 2026	Up	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x6cf00f…