Agile-Understanding — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.12K

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

67.5%

Resolved

12,997

Trades

26,893

lifetime

Volume

$138.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$177

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-12 00:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 260 days

Categories

Crypto

60% 53% -$1,221

Other

38% 50% -$1,865

Politics

1% 62% -$29

Sports

1% 57% -$7

Tech

0% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	Yes	+70	$62	94¢	$66	+$4	11-10 00:45
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	+50	$48	96¢	$48	$0	11-12 00:58
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+40	$26	63¢	$25	-$1	11-08 00:54
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	+20	$17	85¢	$17	$0	11-12 00:56
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	Yes	+20	$11	52¢	$10	-$1	11-09 00:48
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	Yes	+10	$6	100¢	$10	+$4	11-09 00:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cs2 sng imperi 2026 03 12 game2	10	$895	450	450	+0	Imperial Academy	+$2	03-12 16:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 13:30 UTC	209	$538	794	434	+360	Up	-$45	03-06 13:46
bitcoin up or down march 6 5am et	157	$463	408	394	+14	Down	+$11	03-06 11:58
bitcoin up or down march 6 10am et	123	$437	324	286	+37	Up	-$12	03-06 16:32
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 16:30 UTC	147	$412	419	338	+82	Up	-$28	03-06 16:45
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or below on May 21?	2	$400	200	200	+0	No	$0	05-21 08:33
cs2 g2a innerc 2026 03 11	8	$400	400	0	+400	Inner Circle Academy	+$0	03-11 22:23
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds?	15	$400	200	200	+0	Even	+$0	05-22 23:27
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?	16	$400	200	200	+0	Even	+$0	05-23 07:00
lol ucam1 bw 2026 03 10 game1	13	$390	390	0	+390	UCAM Esports Club	+$0	03-10 16:45
Valorant: AB3 Esports vs Tezcat Gaming (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season	8	$371	186	186	+0	Tezcat Gaming	+$0	05-25 15:08
cs2 ast10 furia 2026 03 10 map handicap home 1pt5	8	$350	350	0	+350	Astralis	+$0	03-10 22:48
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 13:45 UTC	103	$306	281	244	+37	Down	-$5	03-06 13:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 13:15 UTC	123	$292	280	232	+48	Up	+$21	03-06 13:28
bitcoin up or down march 6 4am et	114	$292	321	178	+143	Down	-$2	03-06 09:50
bitcoin up or down march 6 9am et	127	$283	249	220	+29	Down	-$4	03-06 14:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 03:45 UTC	21	$280	408	177	+231	Down	+$303	03-13 03:50
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 13:20 UTC	43	$277	341	238	+103	Up	+$4	03-14 13:24
cs2 am 100t 2026 03 09 game2	9	$270	270	0	+270	AM Gaming	+$0	03-09 20:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 06:45 UTC	14	$211	212	0	+212	Down	+$1	03-10 07:02
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or higher on May 31?	4	$203	104	103	+0	No	+$4	05-31 14:41
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 31?	4	$201	101	101	+0	No	+$1	05-31 12:51
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 31?	4	$200	101	101	+1	No	+$1	05-31 17:54
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15?	3	$200	201	201	+0	Yes	-$200	05-15 11:49
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 15?	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-15 14:00
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 15?	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-15 14:00
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 28?	2	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	05-28 15:00
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	1	$200	200	0	+200	JD Gaming	+$0	05-02 09:48
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner	1	$200	200	0	+200	NEW VISION	+$0	05-03 16:06
First Blood in Game 1?	1	$200	200	0	+200	T1	+$0	05-20 09:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-12 00:58:01	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xad4566…
11-12 00:57:07	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xf1217c…
11-12 00:56:34	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x553879…
11-11 15:05:40	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x894d07…
11-11 14:28:52	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xe8d8aa…
11-11 08:11:45	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xd43830…
11-11 04:53:12	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x6c7f1a…
11-11 03:21:00	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 1:59 AM ET?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xbf0dde…
11-11 03:20:07	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x8162fb…
11-11 00:57:42	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x83746a…
11-11 00:56:30	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0xff2642…
11-11 00:56:01	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xaf8b8a…
11-11 00:55:54	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	Yes	SELL	70	97¢	$68	0x5a85df…
11-10 06:02:40	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	Yes	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0xe762ef…
11-10 00:58:39	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$4	0x6177ff…
11-10 00:47:51	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0xe181f9…
11-10 00:45:19	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xe923ca…
11-10 00:44:45	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in October?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xf5989b…
11-10 00:44:16	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xdd532a…
11-09 15:36:37	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x05b222…
11-09 15:06:21	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?	No	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x1ff1cd…
11-09 15:05:46	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0xb539ae…
11-09 15:05:07	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xc72a5c…
11-09 15:04:22	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x7407df…
11-09 08:14:37	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xa9fa61…
11-09 04:58:06	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0x4f667c…
11-09 00:49:57	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xa99897…
11-09 00:48:45	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xf71a15…
11-09 00:48:21	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x394c6e…
11-09 00:47:54	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xdd0dae…
11-09 00:47:25	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x19226a…
11-09 00:47:00	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0xeeabf2…
11-09 00:46:39	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in October?	Yes	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0x40f4b3…
11-09 00:45:57	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x5a4959…
11-09 00:45:24	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x2c2d4b…
11-08 07:16:37	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET?	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x896bc9…
11-08 07:15:51	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xb35345…
11-08 02:39:10	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	99¢	$50	0x4bfa58…
11-08 00:58:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0xab9cc9…
11-08 00:54:48	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x896df2…
11-08 00:52:42	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xe9130c…
11-08 00:52:07	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?	Yes	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0x49f233…
11-08 00:51:18	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	Yes	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x3ca49a…
11-08 00:50:33	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x0bc84b…
11-08 00:49:07	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x6a1c8a…
11-08 00:48:28	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x108437…
11-08 00:47:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x489e22…
11-07 15:05:31	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$7	0xa84df4…
11-07 13:30:25	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x283fbb…
11-07 13:30:00	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x1b0d5e…
11-07 13:29:25	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x91d797…
11-07 13:28:40	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	Yes	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x764c94…
11-07 13:28:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xe39b86…
11-07 11:17:55	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x7230f1…
11-07 11:01:18	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x2ec2a8…
11-07 01:56:36	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x079c72…
11-07 01:55:45	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x6caaad…
11-06 15:32:13	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xc4b24a…
11-06 14:44:54	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xea9f5d…
11-06 14:43:15	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xf04b5f…
11-06 14:41:31	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xd4ef89…
11-06 14:41:16	Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xe01bb4…
11-06 01:12:15	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0x054da9…
11-06 01:10:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x801ed9…
11-06 01:10:06	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x743d23…
11-06 01:09:07	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x8ac47c…
11-06 01:07:01	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x9e605d…
11-06 01:06:30	Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?	Yes	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x228ddf…
11-05 12:32:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 6?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x898f2c…
11-05 12:31:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 5?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xda1537…
11-05 12:16:09	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xcec25f…
11-05 11:33:57	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x84ae9d…
11-05 07:52:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Yes	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x4db573…
11-05 07:52:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x735532…
11-05 07:52:16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x1e9ab7…
11-05 07:51:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x3e63e7…
11-05 07:50:46	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x1fa40a…
11-05 07:50:22	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xd5a8f6…
11-05 07:49:40	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	92¢	$19	0x17c6ae…
11-05 07:48:51	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x6bc937…
11-05 03:35:52	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x52b08e…
11-05 01:48:12	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	No	BUY	15	78¢	$12	0x20de75…
11-04 14:08:06	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	92¢	$40	0xd84b79…
11-04 05:28:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x8e2772…
11-04 04:50:24	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xe17524…
11-04 04:49:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xd85979…
11-04 04:47:19	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x877922…
11-04 04:47:09	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x1b18ce…
11-04 04:23:06	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xbf484b…
11-04 00:52:43	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x82375c…
11-04 00:46:45	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xfddb93…
11-04 00:46:24	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0xb82722…
11-04 00:46:09	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0xff4738…
11-03 17:05:30	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xf55c9b…
11-03 13:28:19	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x113257…
11-03 12:36:31	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xe3fb42…
11-03 12:36:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x495c4c…
11-03 12:35:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x91d797…
11-03 08:19:13	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x2fdeff…
11-03 07:13:33	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0x746c7c…