Agile-Understanding — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$406

Unrealized P&L

+$8

Hit rate

57.9%

Resolved (90d)

250

Trades (90d)

573

26,562 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$3.72K

$135.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$374

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-06 15:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 255 days

Categories

Crypto

60% 53% -$1,221

Other

38% 50% -$1,689

Politics

1% 55% -$11

Sports

1% 57% -$7

Tech

0% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	+100	$96	95¢	$95	$0	11-06 01:10
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	+100	$52	55¢	$55	+$3	11-06 01:07
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	Yes	+51	$47	98¢	$50	+$3	11-06 01:10
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	Yes	+50	$48	99¢	$50	+$2	11-05 03:35
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	Yes	+50	$49	99¢	$50	+$1	11-05 07:48
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	+40	$32	80¢	$32	+$0	11-06 01:12
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+20	$19	98¢	$20	+$1	11-05 11:33
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	+10	$9	93¢	$9	+$0	11-06 14:44
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+10	$8	76¢	$8	$0	11-05 07:51
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+10	$7	66¢	$7	$0	11-06 15:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cs2 sng imperi 2026 03 12 game2	10	$895	450	450	+0	Imperial Academy	+$2	03-12 16:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 13:30 UTC	209	$538	794	434	+360	Up	-$45	03-06 13:46
bitcoin up or down march 6 5am et	157	$463	408	394	+14	Down	+$11	03-06 11:58
bitcoin up or down march 6 10am et	123	$437	324	286	+37	Up	-$12	03-06 16:32
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 16:30 UTC	147	$412	419	338	+82	Up	-$28	03-06 16:45
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or below on May 21?	2	$400	200	200	+0	No	$0	05-21 08:33
cs2 g2a innerc 2026 03 11	8	$400	400	0	+400	Inner Circle Academy	+$0	03-11 22:23
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds?	15	$400	200	200	+0	Even	+$0	05-22 23:27
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?	16	$400	200	200	+0	Even	+$0	05-23 07:00
lol ucam1 bw 2026 03 10 game1	13	$390	390	0	+390	UCAM Esports Club	+$0	03-10 16:45
Valorant: AB3 Esports vs Tezcat Gaming (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season	8	$371	186	186	+0	Tezcat Gaming	+$0	05-25 15:08
cs2 ast10 furia 2026 03 10 map handicap home 1pt5	8	$350	350	0	+350	Astralis	+$0	03-10 22:48
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 13:45 UTC	103	$306	281	244	+37	Down	-$5	03-06 13:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 13:15 UTC	123	$292	280	232	+48	Up	+$21	03-06 13:28
bitcoin up or down march 6 4am et	114	$292	321	178	+143	Down	-$2	03-06 09:50
bitcoin up or down march 6 9am et	127	$283	249	220	+29	Down	-$4	03-06 14:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 03:45 UTC	21	$280	408	177	+231	Down	+$303	03-13 03:50
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 13:20 UTC	43	$277	341	238	+103	Up	+$4	03-14 13:24
cs2 am 100t 2026 03 09 game2	9	$270	270	0	+270	AM Gaming	+$0	03-09 20:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 06:45 UTC	14	$211	212	0	+212	Down	+$1	03-10 07:02
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or higher on May 31?	4	$203	104	103	+0	No	+$4	05-31 14:41
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 31?	4	$201	101	101	+0	No	+$1	05-31 12:51
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 31?	4	$200	101	101	+1	No	+$1	05-31 17:54
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15?	3	$200	201	201	+0	Yes	-$200	05-15 11:49
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 15?	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-15 14:00
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 15?	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-15 14:00
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 28?	2	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	05-28 15:00
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	1	$200	200	0	+200	JD Gaming	+$0	05-02 09:48
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner	1	$200	200	0	+200	NEW VISION	+$0	05-03 16:06
First Blood in Game 1?	1	$200	200	0	+200	T1	+$0	05-20 09:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 15:32:13	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xc4b24a…
11-06 14:44:54	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xea9f5d…
11-06 14:43:15	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xf04b5f…
11-06 14:41:31	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xd4ef89…
11-06 14:41:16	Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xe01bb4…
11-06 01:12:15	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0x054da9…
11-06 01:10:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x801ed9…
11-06 01:10:06	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x743d23…
11-06 01:09:07	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x8ac47c…
11-06 01:07:01	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x9e605d…
11-06 01:06:30	Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?	Yes	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x228ddf…
11-05 12:32:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 6?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x898f2c…
11-05 12:31:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 5?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xda1537…
11-05 12:16:09	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xcec25f…
11-05 11:33:57	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x84ae9d…
11-05 07:52:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Yes	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x4db573…
11-05 07:52:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x735532…
11-05 07:52:16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x1e9ab7…
11-05 07:51:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x3e63e7…
11-05 07:50:46	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x1fa40a…
11-05 07:50:22	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xd5a8f6…
11-05 07:49:40	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	92¢	$19	0x17c6ae…
11-05 07:48:51	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x6bc937…
11-05 03:35:52	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x52b08e…
11-05 01:48:12	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	No	BUY	15	78¢	$12	0x20de75…
11-04 14:08:06	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	92¢	$40	0xd84b79…
11-04 05:28:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x8e2772…
11-04 04:50:24	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xe17524…
11-04 04:49:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xd85979…
11-04 04:47:19	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x877922…
11-04 04:47:09	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x1b18ce…
11-04 04:23:06	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xbf484b…
11-04 00:52:43	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x82375c…
11-04 00:46:45	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xfddb93…
11-04 00:46:24	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0xb82722…
11-04 00:46:09	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0xff4738…
11-03 17:05:30	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xf55c9b…
11-03 13:28:19	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x113257…
11-03 12:36:31	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xe3fb42…
11-03 12:36:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x495c4c…
11-03 12:35:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x91d797…
11-03 08:19:13	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x2fdeff…
11-03 07:13:33	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0x746c7c…
11-03 05:51:48	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x28d53b…
11-03 05:51:00	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xfdd602…
11-03 05:45:24	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x852db5…
11-03 05:44:43	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xe70406…
11-03 05:44:01	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x07a3b3…
11-03 05:43:04	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xdea704…
11-03 02:53:19	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xaf6710…
11-03 02:50:43	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xab740c…
11-03 02:49:12	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x5b4f55…
11-03 02:46:40	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0xd7e988…
11-03 02:43:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x5a6bfb…
11-03 02:42:58	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xa4277c…
11-03 02:41:45	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x55bb3a…
11-03 02:41:16	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0xc3fdcf…
11-03 02:39:42	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xd8283b…
11-02 14:58:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x2dffb6…
11-02 14:57:34	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x01b398…
11-02 00:41:13	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	12	88¢	$11	0x62e8aa…
11-02 00:39:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5b385b…
11-01 01:25:27	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0x18a280…
10-31 07:04:37	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x64beb3…
10-31 07:03:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x14b4cd…
10-31 00:46:21	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0x6ed5e0…
10-29 14:14:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x0f0061…
10-29 14:12:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x97da5c…
10-29 14:12:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe60654…
10-29 03:40:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xb7fe25…
10-29 02:56:40	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x5009cb…
10-29 01:34:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4b15aa…
10-29 01:22:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x6f3bcc…
10-28 15:31:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xdf5f01…
10-28 15:28:49	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa1f368…
10-28 12:32:17	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x7d4778…
10-28 12:29:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb79a15…
10-27 15:29:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xc9e50f…
10-27 15:27:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7a32bc…
10-27 01:06:36	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x40cf9f…
10-26 01:59:30	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x830ccc…
10-25 02:15:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 25?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x1f2ba9…
10-25 01:44:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xcb9bfc…
10-24 13:11:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 25?	Yes	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x9216bc…
10-24 08:07:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 25?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x1524bc…
10-24 05:12:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x804751…
10-24 02:19:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xa472ea…
10-24 01:42:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x8739d6…
10-24 01:41:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xe2d8dd…
10-24 01:41:02	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x6da26d…
10-23 02:54:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x1cd9c5…
10-22 01:52:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x77e925…
10-22 01:50:30	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x64183a…
10-22 01:49:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xd86e16…
10-21 02:12:56	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x04dbcc…
10-20 02:12:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xbdc2cd…
10-20 02:11:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x66e5e2…
10-20 02:10:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x685d22…
10-20 02:10:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xa34053…
10-20 02:08:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xd43747…