Distorted-Justification — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.4%

Resolved

2,070

Trades

2,114

lifetime

Volume

$10.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 10-25 09:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 214 days

Categories

Other

81% 99% +$3

Sports

15% 100% +$2

Crypto

3% 96% +$0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	3	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	07-06 21:03
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	06-29 14:02
Map Handicap: DRIP (-1.5) vs m1x (+1.5)	2	$10	5	5	+0	m1x	+$0	05-07 11:00
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	2	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	08-12 23:04
atp stricke grenier 2026 02 23 set totals 2pt5	2	$10	5	5	+0	Under 2.5	+$0	03-18 05:02
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-08-03?	2	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	08-03 23:14
highest temperature in panama city on april 7 2026 26corbelow	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	04-11 10:12
alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	06-25 02:00
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	03-23 13:53
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	3	$10	5	5	+0	The Otter Side	+$0	05-25 18:11
wta dilek falkows 2026 07 14	2	$10	5	5	+0	Weronika Falkowska	+$0	07-14 15:36
Will Spencer Roach be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	08-24 15:36
chris moneymaker 20260707142702023	2	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	07-24 05:32
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	04-01 01:24
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 2?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	05-02 01:35
Will Kai and Speed have between 50 and 69 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	08-13 11:25
Exact Score: Notts County FC 3 - 0 Salford City FC?	2	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	05-28 16:31
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 28c	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	04-09 07:09
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	06-01 23:08
Will Bob Rommel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	08-24 15:36
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Mali	2	$10	5	5	+0	Mali	+$0	06-03 04:48
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	2	$10	5	5	+0	August Holmgren	+$0	05-30 04:48
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	07-31 21:47
Will steelo of bora Win TFT Set 17 Tacticians crown?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	07-27 05:32
Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?	2	$10	10	0	+10	Yes	+$0	07-27 07:31
blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	03-31 04:00
fl1 psg nan 2026 04 22 total 1pt5	2	$10	5	5	+0	Over	$0	04-22 17:37
Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Lucia Cortez Llorca	2	$10	5	5	+0	Laura Pigossi	$0	05-05 15:54
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	$0	04-01 01:53
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	$0	04-24 17:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 09:31:02	Ningbo: Semen Pankin vs Maxim Zhukov	Semen Pankin	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0d7daa…
10-24 13:22:17	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7eb8ac…
10-23 16:52:30	Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz	Taylor Fritz	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x14050d…
10-23 06:10:06	Japan Women's Open: Talia Gibson vs Ashlyn Krueger	Ashlyn Krueger	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x77bd1d…
10-20 18:47:42	Will Sabah FK win on 2026-10-20?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe23e5f…
10-20 18:39:09	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x072d06…
10-18 03:35:39	Notre Dame vs. BYU	BYU	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc69544…
10-15 19:37:38	Santa Cruz 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Manuel La Serna	Juan Manuel La Serna	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8c9cf1…
10-14 20:56:43	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2bbf41…
10-14 13:12:35	wta krueger tararud 2026 10 14	Ashlyn Krueger	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3a798e…
10-14 11:41:25	atp medvede tsitsip 2026 10 13	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf822f7…
10-13 20:58:52	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xade591…
10-13 14:15:19	Catania: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Federico Bondioli	Enrico Dalla Valle	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc66595…
10-12 16:35:42	Olbia: Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonald	Lorenzo Carboni	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0efce4…
10-12 09:08:25	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Rafael Jodar	Rafael Jodar	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf7a8a5…
10-11 20:16:10	Bengals vs. Dolphins	Bengals	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe3bdfd…
10-11 10:26:12	Olbia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Viktor Durasovic	Viktor Durasovic	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdd5656…
10-10 11:08:43	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Learner Tien vs Zachary Svajda	Learner Tien	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb848a6…
10-09 02:09:51	Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdae8dd…
10-06 20:46:26	Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x640f93…
10-06 16:07:33	Palermo: Kalin Ivanovski vs Alejandro Moro Canas	Alejandro Moro Canas	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfb361a…
10-04 23:23:17	LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 1 Winner	Team Liquid	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5db9a1…
10-04 20:17:38	Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Astralis (BO5) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs	Astralis	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf35e49…
10-03 14:50:29	China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva	Alina Charaeva	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x586e6d…
10-03 02:53:02	Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xba1b35…
10-02 14:12:36	Will Bolivia vs. Gambia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x39a2a8…
10-01 20:46:18	Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x440bdd…
10-01 06:03:15	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc96f9d…
10-01 05:16:09	mlb chc sd 2026 09 30	San Diego Padres	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x55d08e…
09-30 23:55:02	Will China PR vs. Turkmenistan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf93a5c…
09-30 02:03:00	Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs	Canadiens	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1fd4b6…
09-29 13:58:57	atp cretu rocha 2026 09 28	Henrique Rocha	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x579c9f…
09-29 13:20:14	atp medvede rublev 2026 09 29	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8ac3c8…
09-28 20:43:08	atp zink krueger 2026 09 28	Mitchell Krueger	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0caa2a…
09-27 20:35:47	Chargers vs. Bills	Bills	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa77d7a…
09-27 20:12:27	nfl cin pit 2026 09 27	Steelers	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcd3982…
09-27 13:31:18	atp harri hurkacz 2026 09 27	Hubert Hurkacz	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2576ff…
09-27 12:29:15	atp safiull bu 2026 09 27	Roman Safiullin	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbe56e6…
09-27 00:29:23	Wisconsin vs. Penn State	Wisconsin	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9a3de9…
09-27 00:21:29	atp legout marcond 2026 09 26	Igor Ribeiro Marcondes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xed8d8a…
09-26 22:45:11	TCU vs. UCF	UCF	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe87072…
09-26 19:47:30	Texas vs. Tennessee	Texas	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3e4a30…
09-26 16:16:12	cs2 hero sng2 2026 09 26	Heroic	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4142d8…
09-26 12:18:23	wta fernand chwalin 2026 09 26	Leylah Fernandez	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe4c844…
09-25 10:13:02	atp marozsa daniel 2026 09 25	Fabian Marozsan	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5a49fe…
09-24 20:45:14	Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf34185…
09-23 22:37:46	mlb min sf 2026 09 23	Minnesota Twins	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf45ca2…
09-21 18:44:31	wta naito aksu 2026 09 21	Ayla Aksu	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x95b71a…
09-21 13:01:32	Solana Up or Down - September 21, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd89025…
09-21 08:37:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 September 14-20?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2293cb…
09-21 02:19:40	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7470b4…
09-20 22:25:43	Browns vs. Buccaneers	Browns	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd912cc…
09-20 21:08:28	Will CD Leganés vs. Granada CF end in a draw?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5b7be0…
09-20 09:13:45	val flfe genggc 2026 09 20 game1	Gen.G GC	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7c9f9f…
09-20 02:59:36	will ethereum dip to 2600 in september 2026	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x54863e…
09-20 01:26:37	Florida State vs. Alabama	Alabama	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x24c9b7…
09-20 00:02:51	Southeastern Louisiana vs. Louisiana-Monroe	Southeastern Louisiana	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xee7d89…
09-19 20:39:11	NC State vs. Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3b4a46…
09-19 01:33:06	Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x921144…
09-18 20:03:34	Will Manchester City WFC win on 2026-09-18?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfb2b1e…
09-17 17:27:07	lol ckz esb 2026 09 19 game1	CITA Kaizen	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x86d6be…
09-17 14:00:52	bitcoin up or down september 17 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfbca90…
09-17 12:51:34	itf lagarr1 khazim1 2026 09 17	Florent Lagarrigue	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfea040…
09-17 00:30:49	Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner	Bounty Hunters Esports	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0c91cb…
09-16 13:47:28	Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x397f68…
09-16 11:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xefd06f…
09-16 02:35:51	Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-09-15?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2d3d6a…
09-16 01:32:15	Tiburon: Michael Zheng vs Evan Zhu	Michael Zheng	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfe8fbb…
09-16 01:20:30	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xca9aa6…
09-15 17:49:46	will wti reach 105 in september 2026	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa6c328…
09-15 14:23:34	W75 Le Neubourg: Demi Tran vs Sachia Vickery	Demi Tran	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbc176d…
09-15 09:42:03	Guangzhou: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Pavel Kotov	Pavel Kotov	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x284a1e…
09-14 14:28:55	Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2026-09-14?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe5693f…
09-14 01:22:54	wta bucsa andrees 2026 09 13	Cristina Bucsa	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xecc049…
09-13 20:06:01	Buccaneers vs. Bengals	Bengals	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x06074c…
09-13 14:59:09	atp zhukov loof 2026 09 13	Thijmen Loof	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2780e6…
09-13 02:51:25	Iowa State vs. Iowa	Iowa	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xef00b1…
09-13 01:31:01	Buffalo vs. Florida International	Florida International	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdd4b81…
09-12 12:52:27	European T20 Premier League: Belfast Wolves vs Rotterdam Dockers	Rotterdam Dockers	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7ec557…
09-12 10:54:10	itf naw1 brown1 2026 09 12	Oscar Brown	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa998d7…
09-12 03:07:06	US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton	Ben Shelton	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0e7e24…
09-12 01:58:15	Set 3 Winner: Tiafoe vs Shelton	Shelton	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdaf216…
09-11 21:06:34	Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-09-11?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x65855b…
09-11 20:32:57	Counter-Strike: Phantom Academy vs KAMUI (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group Stage	Phantom Academy	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x399800…
09-11 19:25:48	Will SV Ried win on 2026-09-11?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc4f9ee…
09-11 10:51:00	Cassis: Ugo Blanchet vs Daniel Masur	Daniel Masur	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2c2f63…
09-11 02:58:28	Phan Thiet 3: Philip Sekulic vs Koki Matsuda	Philip Sekulic	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe7520e…
09-10 20:29:00	Counter-Strike: mellren vs MORROW (BO3) - European Pro League Series 9 Play-In Play-In	mellren	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x449113…
09-10 18:48:15	LoL: Zena Esports vs Aeterna Esports - Game 1 Winner	Aeterna Esports	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcb6910…
09-10 18:37:37	Will PSV vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9beb11…
09-10 17:31:51	Sher-E-Punjab T20: Fazilka Falcons vs Bathinda Royals	Fazilka Falcons	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe91e46…
09-10 12:42:58	Montreux: Fiona Ferro vs Barbora Palicova	Fiona Ferro	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0048c7…
09-10 12:07:15	M25 Plaisir + H: Adan Freire Da Silva vs Nikola Slavic	Nikola Slavic	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf75cf5…
09-10 01:18:22	Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x87e352…
09-09 22:45:52	US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx	Karen Khachanov	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfaaf4a…
09-09 18:51:12	Apple Announces Foldable iPhone at “Surprise and Shine” Event?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb5a7d7…
09-09 00:21:46	Barranquilla: Cadence Brace vs Sara Sorribes Tormo	Sara Sorribes Tormo	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcd69db…
09-08 23:11:39	atp tiafoe michels 2026 09 08	Frances Tiafoe	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x38840b…
09-08 20:57:21	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x814658…
09-08 19:09:55	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on September 8?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfd0e68…