Complicated-Thermometer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$21.6K

Unrealized P&L

-$135

Hit rate

57.1%

Resolved

221

Trades

2,909

lifetime

Volume

$252.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$87

Open exposure

$1.65K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-16 18:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 75 days

Categories

Other

54% 44% -$6,426

Politics

26% 31% -$16,528

Crypto

14% 62% +$353

Sports

6% 33% +$1,042

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	-1,528	-$1,290	97¢	$-1479	-$189	07-21 08:01
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	-2,254	-$203	4¢	$-101	+$101	06-17 09:29
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	+2,743	$116	2¢	$69	-$48	08-01 19:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	33	$9.6K	16,746	16,746	+0	Yes	-$607	02-28 06:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	46	$8.6K	16,877	6,679	+10,198	Yes	-$5,060	02-28 19:57
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	8	$8.4K	35,091	32,378	+2,713	No	+$1,299	07-17 10:34
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	21	$5.8K	10,725	10,725	+0	Yes	+$912	02-28 20:38
Fed rate hike in 2026?	3	$5.8K	8,699	8,699	+0	Yes	-$475	06-17 09:28
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	13	$5.7K	8,423	5,790	+2,634	Yes	+$1,270	01-30 09:44
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	18	$5.7K	4,245	4,245	+0	Yes	+$2,040	03-04 17:30
si hit 100 high jan 2026 422 587 453	18	$5.3K	6,140	1,425	+4,716	Yes	+$190	01-23 17:45
xauusd up or down on april 13 2026	21	$5.2K	4,657	2,291	+2,366	Down	+$1,723	04-13 20:50
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	3	$4.4K	2,561	2,561	+0	No	+$384	02-25 04:51
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$4.0K	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	+$931	02-18 22:05
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$4.0K	24,062	24,062	+0	No	-$60	06-06 16:48
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	6	$3.7K	9,515	2,896	+6,619	No	-$1,493	01-25 21:23
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?	30	$3.6K	4,983	1,787	+3,196	Yes	-$1,684	06-10 11:24
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$3.6K	4,789	0	+4,789	No	+$1,197	05-15 07:39
si hit 85 high jan 2026 851 188 261	12	$3.4K	5,862	1,751	+4,112	Yes	+$3,727	01-12 07:53
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	10	$3.3K	10,987	0	+10,987	No	-$3,311	02-03 22:40
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	10	$3.1K	9,985	1,047	+8,938	No	-$2,402	01-24 11:18
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	7	$3.1K	4,919	0	+4,919	No	+$1,866	05-15 14:19
will annual inflation increase by 3pt4 in march	25	$2.9K	4,670	0	+4,670	No	+$1,785	04-10 12:29
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	5	$2.9K	3,823	0	+3,823	No	-$2,865	05-12 14:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 13:35 UTC	189	$2.8K	2,142	2,138	+4	Up	+$495	02-15 13:41
fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 corners team away 3pt5	3	$2.7K	3,273	1,637	+1,637	Under	+$753	06-17 20:36
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	4	$2.6K	3,331	0	+3,331	Yes	+$712	05-13 12:12
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?	19	$2.6K	3,620	0	+3,620	No	+$1,050	05-12 09:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 10:50 UTC	76	$2.4K	1,993	1,990	+3	Down	+$809	02-28 10:51
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	19	$2.3K	2,764	0	+2,764	No	-$2,350	05-16 21:38
fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 corners team away 4pt5	5	$2.2K	3,163	5	+3,158	Under	+$918	06-14 21:49
si hit 90 high jan 2026 157 295 494	7	$2.2K	2,966	0	+2,966	Yes	+$746	01-14 12:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-06 14:50 UTC	44	$2.2K	1,949	1,586	+362	Down	+$640	06-06 14:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-16 18:11:16	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	649	27¢	$175	0x2068b7…
09-16 14:10:18	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	27¢	$7	0x4b0eb0…
09-16 14:08:04	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0x9a7177…
09-16 12:39:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,774	11¢	$195	0x7560d3…
09-15 07:23:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,774	13¢	$231	0x2c6dd4…
09-15 07:22:31	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	SELL	280	87¢	$244	0x562365…
09-08 11:49:07	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?	No	BUY	355	56¢	$199	0x801789…
09-08 11:48:19	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	2,000	15¢	$297	0x0c9bfe…
09-08 11:46:52	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in August?	Yes	BUY	513	35¢	$179	0x2fd7f2…
09-02 21:33:13	Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x899375…
09-02 21:32:52	Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August?	Yes	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0xefbdc6…
09-02 13:29:19	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	325	8¢	$28	0xe0fd33…
09-02 13:29:04	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x73fbae…
09-02 13:29:04	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0x698072…
09-02 13:29:04	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	124	9¢	$11	0x5b60f3…
09-02 13:28:49	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	227	7¢	$16	0xfb1652…
09-02 13:27:25	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	49	5¢	$2	0xc65230…
09-02 13:27:22	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	102	4¢	$4	0xdf4ab8…
09-02 13:26:54	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	115	3¢	$3	0x58e42f…
09-02 13:26:24	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	165	2¢	$4	0x196543…
09-02 13:26:10	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	244	2¢	$6	0xdd3586…
09-02 13:26:01	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	1,185	2¢	$24	0xc6a703…
09-02 13:26:00	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	621	2¢	$11	0xbbd6c6…
09-02 13:25:57	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	526	1¢	$7	0xe6139b…
09-02 13:25:52	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	317	1¢	$3	0xebe4bb…
09-02 13:25:46	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	691	1¢	$5	0xf0b830…
09-02 13:25:39	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	540	1¢	$3	0x92e9b7…
09-02 13:25:36	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	430	0¢	$2	0xd635e3…
09-02 13:25:36	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x067bc9…
09-02 13:25:33	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	409	0¢	$2	0x637b39…
08-01 19:23:05	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,125	4¢	$48	0x8afff0…
08-01 19:22:27	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,618	4¢	$68	0x9ffaef…
07-22 11:22:48	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	86	52¢	$45	0xccee7b…
07-22 11:20:42	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	16	52¢	$8	0x3c9631…
07-22 11:16:51	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	40	52¢	$21	0x908873…
07-22 11:16:07	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x479443…
07-22 10:19:46	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xf04f1e…
07-22 10:18:07	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xb126a8…
07-22 10:17:34	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	2,751	52¢	$1,419	0x56b7fb…
07-21 08:01:28	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	2,107	81¢	$1,707	0x900b10…
07-17 10:34:22	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,171	41¢	$482	0xa69e18…
07-12 09:27:43	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	152	19¢	$29	0x9c5a99…
07-12 09:27:41	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	19,725	19¢	$3,728	0x692562…
07-08 02:00:10	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	972	29¢	$282	0x63b1fc…
07-08 01:46:32	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	No	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x5736a1…
07-07 21:34:14	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	No	BUY	23	32¢	$7	0x55ee40…
07-07 20:48:28	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	No	BUY	756	32¢	$242	0xa46889…
07-07 18:55:04	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	28	29¢	$8	0x2d1309…
07-07 10:04:02	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	No	BUY	254	38¢	$96	0x2a36f1…
07-07 10:03:22	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	No	BUY	300	36¢	$108	0xc5259a…
07-07 09:52:04	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	114	39¢	$44	0x3c165e…
07-07 09:50:59	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0xee6c8d…
07-05 14:27:47	Will Rodri stay at Manchester City?	Yes	BUY	122	51¢	$63	0x915ce8…
06-29 12:53:17	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	372	72¢	$268	0xf3f4a7…
06-29 12:31:50	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	51	72¢	$37	0xe8e8f6…
06-29 03:24:58	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x07a8dd…
06-28 18:40:59	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x9d7fe1…
06-28 17:27:41	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x99ef6e…
06-22 19:42:46	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	3,500	13¢	$462	0x170599…
06-18 02:46:14	fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 corners team home 1pt5	Under	BUY	500	50¢	$250	0xca540e…
06-18 02:46:14	fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 corners team home 1pt5	Under	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x8d28b0…
06-18 02:46:13	fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 corners team home 1pt5	Under	BUY	208	50¢	$104	0x71f53b…
06-18 02:45:52	fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 corners team home 1pt5	Under	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x206819…
06-18 02:42:44	fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 corners team home 1pt5	Under	BUY	650	53¢	$344	0x0c304e…
06-18 02:42:02	fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 corners team home 1pt5	Under	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0xede431…
06-18 02:29:01	fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 team total home 0pt5	Under	BUY	60	67¢	$40	0xef0cfb…
06-18 02:29:01	fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 team total home 0pt5	Under	BUY	2,000	66¢	$1,320	0x5c6c2b…
06-17 20:36:14	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 corners team away 3pt5	Under	SELL	1,635	56¢	$915	0x95c913…
06-17 20:36:14	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 corners team away 3pt5	Under	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x492926…
06-17 19:41:28	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	3,273	55¢	$1,800	0x19711e…
06-17 09:29:40	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,254	9¢	$203	0xfc8832…
06-17 09:28:49	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,977	30¢	$1,193	0x30d8ed…
06-17 09:27:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,722	31¢	$1,464	0x62cc5d…
06-15 19:48:54	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	133	71¢	$94	0x2f0aa5…
06-15 19:48:52	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	22	71¢	$16	0x92088e…
06-15 19:48:52	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	161	71¢	$114	0x9115f4…
06-15 19:48:52	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	22	71¢	$16	0x666122…
06-15 19:48:52	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	23	71¢	$17	0x10d40b…
06-15 19:48:51	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	13	71¢	$9	0xfd8ffa…
06-15 19:48:51	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	74	71¢	$53	0x69aaee…
06-15 19:48:51	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0x620b56…
06-15 19:48:51	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	22	71¢	$16	0x54ad2f…
06-15 19:48:51	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0x53039b…
06-15 19:48:49	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	38	71¢	$27	0x780990…
06-15 19:48:49	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x5cbfbc…
06-15 19:48:49	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x2be9d2…
06-15 19:43:03	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xa23236…
06-15 19:42:24	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xf2dadb…
06-15 19:37:15	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xf5a456…
06-15 19:37:10	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0xd6c756…
06-15 19:37:10	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x635782…
06-15 19:37:03	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0x003a36…
06-15 19:33:49	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 2pt5	Under	BUY	1,135	62¢	$704	0xaad16a…
06-15 19:32:58	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 2pt5	Under	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xdc0ffd…
06-15 19:31:52	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 2pt5	Under	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x20db71…
06-15 19:27:13	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 2pt5	Under	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xcb4fe5…
06-15 19:26:18	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 2pt5	Under	BUY	12	62¢	$8	0x3aef33…
06-15 19:26:15	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 2pt5	Under	BUY	39	62¢	$24	0x2973a2…
06-15 19:18:21	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x05c38f…
06-15 19:15:43	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners team away 3pt5	Under	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x0e8b2a…