Definitive-Today — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$29

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

49.1%

Resolved

Trades

526

lifetime

Volume

$783

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$43

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-14

last 08-30 10:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 39% -$39

Other

32% 77% +$10

Politics

12% 89% +$3

Sports

3% 80% -$2

Tech

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	-11	-$11	98¢	$-11	$0	08-30 10:42
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	-11	-$11	98¢	$-11	$0	08-30 10:41
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?	No	-11	-$10	97¢	$-11	$0	08-30 10:40
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	No	-11	-$10	98¢	$-11	$0	08-30 10:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
msft close above 400 on march 16 2026	5	$27	28	14	+14	No	-$3	03-16 20:07
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	3	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	08-30 10:42
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	38	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	04-24 14:20
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	4	$20	10	10	+0	No	$0	08-30 10:45
will bitcoin reach 80k on march 16	3	$20	10	10	+0	No	$0	03-16 14:28
will solana reach 90 on april 1	85	$20	10	10	+0	No	$0	04-02 00:46
will solana dip to 80 on april 18	31	$20	10	10	+0	No	$0	04-19 02:04
will ethereum reach 2250 on april 1	3	$19	11	11	+0	No	$0	04-01 07:21
will solana dip to 85 on march 20	23	$19	10	10	+0	No	-$1	03-20 20:58
will solana reach 100 on march 18	3	$19	10	9	+2	No	+$0	03-18 22:56
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	51	$18	10	8	+2	No	+$0	04-29 08:09
will solana reach 110 on march 16	4	$15	10	5	+5	No	$0	03-17 00:41
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	30	$14	13	13	+0	Yes	-$6	05-15 23:25
will ethereum reach 2350 on march 18	4	$13	10	3	+7	No	+$0	03-18 20:21
will solana dip to 80 on april 1	4	$13	11	10	+1	Yes	-$7	04-02 01:06
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	4	$11	0	11	-11	open	—	08-30 10:42
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	1	$11	0	11	-11	open	—	08-30 10:41
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?	1	$10	0	11	-11	open	—	08-30 10:40
will bitcoin dip to 72k on april 20	3	$10	6	6	+0	No	+$1	04-20 20:19
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	10	$10	15	15	+0	No	+$0	05-23 08:27
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	2	$10	0	11	-11	open	—	08-30 10:44
Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	55	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	07-21 01:03
Trump out as President by April 30?	17	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	04-27 14:40
will solana reach 105 on march 18	5	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	03-18 21:52
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	2	$10	20	0	+20	cancelled	+$0	07-06 02:23
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	03-18 22:22
will xrp reach 1pt55 on march 16	2	$10	14	0	+14	Yes	-$10	03-16 22:44
will trump meet with delcy rodrguez by march 31 446	2	$10	11	0	+11	No	+$1	03-15 00:56
highest temperature in taipei on march 17 2026 26c	2	$10	10	0	+10	Yes	+$0	03-17 20:40
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	2	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	07-01 13:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-30 10:45:00	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x598191…
08-30 10:44:19	Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	94¢	$8	0xbbc218…
08-30 10:44:09	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x7a04d8…
08-30 10:42:52	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x2141f1…
08-30 10:42:09	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe41a3a…
08-30 10:41:28	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0x41a622…
08-30 10:40:46	Major CEX insolvent in 2026?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0xaf2d12…
08-17 10:45:42	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa9b52b…
08-16 21:12:27	itc laz man 2026 08 16 spread away 1pt5	SS Lazio	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xc8c27a…
08-16 20:23:55	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x704b5f…
08-06 15:54:00	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x09d345…
08-06 08:35:08	Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x2b929f…
08-01 06:38:00	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x222d2d…
08-01 06:38:00	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x1fc17d…
07-24 16:01:19	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x1effd3…
07-24 15:35:52	Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x158367…
07-24 15:35:49	Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xbb7fdd…
07-24 15:35:24	Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x7c9481…
07-24 15:35:24	Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x351bad…
07-24 15:35:22	Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc1dd90…
07-24 15:35:19	Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xe0bad6…
07-24 15:35:10	Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x98e2a0…
07-24 15:34:28	Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xb956c4…
07-24 15:34:25	Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x0c285a…
07-24 15:34:19	Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x0e0130…
07-24 15:34:18	Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xfa4471…
07-24 15:34:18	Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6c9107…
07-21 01:03:28	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x4f0406…
07-21 00:47:34	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x2dc1c4…
07-21 00:18:27	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xbfb761…
07-21 00:18:25	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xd651d4…
07-21 00:18:25	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x0cbfa1…
07-21 00:04:09	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xa5537b…
07-21 00:04:09	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x32bd9a…
07-21 00:04:09	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x034ea4…
07-20 23:55:27	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x50edda…
07-20 23:54:42	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x522fcf…
07-20 23:52:36	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x7c76ad…
07-20 23:52:34	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x83a779…
07-20 23:52:34	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x560db1…
07-20 23:50:57	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc2452c…
07-20 23:50:16	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x4f2f25…
07-20 23:50:06	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xa99118…
07-20 23:50:06	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x554b5c…
07-20 23:46:43	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xe226a6…
07-20 23:46:42	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x59604c…
07-20 23:35:04	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xf3a638…
07-20 22:20:07	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xadaa88…
07-20 22:15:21	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x63204a…
07-20 22:15:10	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xe209c5…
07-20 22:15:10	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x381d04…
07-20 13:26:40	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xa19d96…
07-20 13:16:43	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x172d95…
07-20 13:15:51	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x904930…
07-20 13:15:06	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xd089fa…
07-20 13:15:01	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xdea940…
07-20 13:15:01	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x93c788…
07-20 13:14:45	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xb5a286…
07-20 13:14:40	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x5c7e86…
07-20 13:14:12	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x2d8c67…
07-20 13:13:42	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x171593…
07-20 13:12:39	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x7040af…
07-20 13:12:39	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x314d4d…
07-20 13:12:33	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc8a681…
07-20 13:12:27	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xfa2994…
07-20 13:07:49	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x832f0d…
07-20 12:58:40	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xa09313…
07-20 12:58:39	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xdef7d9…
07-20 12:58:07	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x0c6f3a…
07-20 12:25:24	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xf7ac91…
07-20 12:22:43	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x90a4c2…
07-20 12:10:39	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xb54f46…
07-20 12:10:39	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x85fffd…
07-20 12:10:39	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x3cf0d1…
07-20 12:09:09	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x9368f7…
07-20 12:08:19	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x61492e…
07-20 12:08:19	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x56875e…
07-20 12:08:18	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x9cb56f…
07-20 12:03:16	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x272657…
07-20 12:02:55	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xd675f0…
07-20 12:02:54	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x350d15…
07-07 17:11:29	will anthropics valuation hit low 700b by december 31 928	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x2a9e70…
07-07 14:58:47	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x1b0c98…
07-06 02:37:44	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x30fc82…
07-06 02:37:43	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x0155e5…
07-06 02:23:02	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x6b3f05…
07-06 01:42:55	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x9aae61…
07-03 04:59:08	Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xeeb32a…
07-02 05:08:05	will bitcoin dip to 59k on july 2	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x5b9dd2…
07-01 23:18:37	Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x71da50…
07-01 14:22:35	will bitcoin dip to 56k on july 1	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7f1061…
07-01 13:53:25	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x494bf7…
07-01 13:53:22	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x748282…
06-04 01:10:40	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xbacc36…
06-04 00:57:15	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x199b12…
06-04 00:42:13	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x123d20…
06-03 21:43:54	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xe8e285…
06-01 13:32:18	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x630163…
05-23 13:21:49	Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xffed7c…
05-23 08:27:37	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x54961f…