Blaring-Sandpaper — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.89K

Unrealized P&L

+$101

Hit rate

75.8%

Resolved

360

Trades

3,852

lifetime

Volume

$74.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$1.73K

16 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 09:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 106 days

Categories

Other

49% 71% +$1,692

Politics

46% 68% +$866

Crypto

3% 67% +$227

Tech

2% 78% +$55

Sports

0% 88% +$54

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 77 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?	No	+520	$499	99¢	$515	+$16	09-06 01:39
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?	No	+500	$470	97¢	$484	+$14	08-10 01:51
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+414	$269	88¢	$362	+$93	10-27 09:48
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+180	$83	47¢	$85	+$2	10-15 13:08
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+180	$70	35¢	$63	-$7	10-19 07:50
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	+55	$41	99¢	$54	+$13	10-01 18:06
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	+50	$44	86¢	$43	-$1	08-06 16:52
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	-29	-$13	94¢	$-27	-$14	05-04 10:16
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	+30	$16	90¢	$27	+$11	05-12 09:56
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	-20	-$6	100¢	$-20	-$14	05-02 09:14
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	No	+45	$18	37¢	$17	-$1	10-13 19:57
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+209	$34	7¢	$15	-$19	08-27 09:40
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-58	-$79	12¢	$-7	+$71	09-07 20:00
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+103	$55	6¢	$6	-$50	06-16 15:53
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+5	$4	30¢	$1	-$2	10-13 18:47
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	+20	$13	0¢	$0	-$13	05-02 22:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	184	$3.6K	2,967	2,840	+127	Yes	-$91	03-29 05:08
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	110	$2.4K	2,183	2,044	+139	No	-$99	03-28 05:14
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	97	$2.0K	1,276	1,126	+151	Yes	-$11	03-03 16:41
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	23	$2.0K	1,950	350	+1,600	No	+$220	06-02 22:22
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	74	$1.7K	1,070	785	+286	Yes	+$105	04-25 19:38
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	34	$1.6K	830	830	+0	Yes	+$19	03-24 16:50
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	50	$1.6K	1,060	960	+100	No	-$74	07-31 22:04
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28	70	$1.6K	950	961	-11	Yes	+$134	02-27 18:13
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	58	$1.5K	1,531	407	+1,124	Yes	+$141	05-29 23:02
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	30	$1.4K	912	582	+330	No	+$34	05-25 21:57
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	9	$1.3K	700	600	+100	Yes	+$2	04-08 20:47
will russia capture rodynske by march 31	66	$1.2K	853	492	+360	Yes	+$57	03-22 19:57
will russia enter bilytske by february 28	41	$1.2K	965	238	+728	Yes	+$45	02-27 18:20
will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	74	$1.1K	752	747	+5	No	+$54	03-29 14:22
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	17	$945	610	510	+100	No	-$1	05-12 12:54
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?	12	$929	527	475	+53	Yes	+$14	05-07 00:10
will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by january 31 2026 147	28	$923	490	595	-105	No	+$25	01-29 20:27
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by May 31?	39	$874	838	90	+748	Yes	+$41	04-25 23:28
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?	76	$872	936	158	+778	Yes	+$16	05-30 00:03
will ukraine re enter novomykolaivka by march 31	49	$799	607	238	+369	Yes	+$45	03-08 11:06
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	20	$791	569	299	+270	No	+$56	05-28 08:01
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	23	$779	466	346	+121	Yes	+$16	05-01 00:30
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	27	$776	608	271	+337	Yes	+$81	05-23 21:02
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	13	$731	345	425	-80	No	-$7	05-16 13:13
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	19	$687	475	475	+0	open	—	08-01 08:03
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	46	$676	471	508	-36	No	+$82	01-30 22:31
will russia enter ternuvate by february 28	27	$659	436	362	+74	Yes	+$45	01-31 21:14
will ukraine re enter huliaipole by march 31	18	$649	336	336	+0	Yes	+$22	03-06 16:20
will russia capture all of rodynske by march 31	16	$626	331	331	+0	Yes	+$4	03-22 19:56
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	22	$619	449	453	-4	No	+$30	05-12 00:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 09:48:02	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	90¢	$54	0xf3fbc7…
10-25 11:17:05	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	25	93¢	$23	0x1baf52…
10-24 21:27:21	Will Ladislav Lörinc win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0xf2a90a…
10-24 20:57:17	Will Ladislav Lörinc win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x91aeb7…
10-24 20:55:12	Will Ladislav Lörinc win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	37	87¢	$32	0x9e42e0…
10-24 20:54:44	Will Ladislav Lörinc win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x0cb9bc…
10-24 20:51:30	Will Martin Mudrák win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x8ee2e2…
10-24 20:50:12	Will Martin Mudrák win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x0b6b50…
10-24 20:48:15	Will Matúš Vallo win the 2026 Bratislava mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	120	96¢	$115	0x885893…
10-24 20:37:35	Will Martin Mudrák win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?	No	BUY	51	93¢	$48	0x95dee1…
10-24 20:37:12	Will Martin Mudrák win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x4708a8…
10-24 20:28:30	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Petr Yan	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xa32c8c…
10-24 20:25:11	Will Martin Mudrák win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x1f2a19…
10-24 20:20:08	Will Martin Mudrák win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x60d744…
10-24 20:18:30	Will Ladislav Lörinc win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x2a72e5…
10-24 20:01:36	Will Milan Majerský win the 2026 Prešov Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x8b38f6…
10-24 20:01:27	Will Milan Majerský win the 2026 Prešov Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x8f57ab…
10-24 20:01:21	Will Milan Majerský win the 2026 Prešov Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0xebc455…
10-24 19:53:23	Will Milan Majerský win the 2026 Prešov Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xec1297…
10-24 19:33:35	Will Erika Jurinová win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xbe339f…
10-24 19:33:20	Will Branislav Becík win the 2026 Nitra Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	119	99¢	$118	0xbbdc4a…
10-24 19:29:48	Will Jaroslav Baška win the 2026 Trenčín Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0xd3a576…
10-24 19:27:44	Will Erika Jurinová win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x5f0a12…
10-24 19:18:48	Will Milan Majerský win the 2026 Prešov Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	121	80¢	$97	0x76e1b6…
10-24 19:13:44	Will Milan Majerský win the 2026 Prešov Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	21	78¢	$16	0x3f50f2…
10-24 19:11:23	Will Milan Majerský win the 2026 Prešov Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x13f97c…
10-24 19:09:29	Will Anna Belousovová win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	73	100¢	$73	0x4820cd…
10-24 19:08:17	Will Martin Kapitulík win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x65eba9…
10-24 18:35:29	Will Matúš Vallo win the 2026 Bratislava mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x812393…
10-24 18:35:14	Will Jozef Ráž win the 2026 Bratislava mayoral election?	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x10a481…
10-24 18:32:41	Will Jozef Ráž win the 2026 Bratislava mayoral election?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xd1f272…
10-24 18:32:29	Will Jozef Ráž win the 2026 Bratislava mayoral election?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7acca0…
10-23 19:57:18	Will Erika Jurinová win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	25	76¢	$19	0xfee5ce…
10-20 15:34:54	Will Erika Jurinová win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	80	84¢	$67	0xe84277…
10-20 15:17:21	Will Peter Fiabáne win the 2026 Žilina mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	60	71¢	$43	0xe5e7f9…
10-20 14:07:08	Will Peter Fiabáne win the 2026 Žilina mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	40	71¢	$28	0xbd82a8…
10-19 11:59:18	Will Jozef Ráž win the 2026 Bratislava mayoral election?	No	BUY	65	96¢	$63	0xba0812…
10-19 07:50:41	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	39¢	$17	0x03b42a…
10-19 07:09:24	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0xe8c0a3…
10-17 21:52:56	Will Martin Kapitulík win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x966c73…
10-17 21:52:44	Will Martin Kapitulík win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$7	0x45f41f…
10-17 21:51:59	Will Martin Kapitulík win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x7f4954…
10-17 21:46:21	Will Anna Belousovová win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	180	100¢	$179	0x1b0a73…
10-17 21:40:33	Will Martin Kapitulík win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x3d74d1…
10-17 21:39:39	Will Anna Belousovová win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x24e7ab…
10-17 21:31:48	Will Anna Belousovová win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	126	99¢	$125	0x0d25db…
10-17 21:29:38	Will Anna Belousovová win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x6065cc…
10-17 21:26:50	Will Anna Belousovová win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x4729e6…
10-15 18:01:41	Will Erika Jurinová win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	15	84¢	$13	0xf549ce…
10-15 13:08:43	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	44¢	$7	0x3b63ca…
10-15 11:40:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	SELL	70	69¢	$48	0xfd58a5…
10-15 11:10:48	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	44¢	$15	0xd6a9c1…
10-15 10:56:12	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	90¢	$50	0x845394…
10-15 10:10:47	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x3d52f4…
10-15 10:10:41	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	44¢	$12	0xba9610…
10-15 08:12:41	Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	21	91¢	$20	0xb89693…
10-15 07:56:56	Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0xeebb36…
10-15 01:46:04	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	53¢	$17	0x90b806…
10-15 01:46:04	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	53¢	$4	0x61bfb6…
10-15 01:04:10	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0x553819…
10-14 04:06:23	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x88b831…
10-14 04:05:43	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x806923…
10-14 04:05:29	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x57efae…
10-14 02:30:40	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0x45af4e…
10-14 02:30:32	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	43¢	$3	0xbfecab…
10-14 02:10:26	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x56ad18…
10-13 20:32:03	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xe93d9f…
10-13 20:16:19	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	No	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x44e58a…
10-13 19:57:51	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	No	BUY	15	36¢	$5	0x805588…
10-13 19:12:18	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 44 and 45 million views on day 4?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x8db121…
10-13 18:47:12	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	82¢	$29	0x720133…
10-13 18:07:55	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	SELL	110	89¢	$98	0xcf3a3e…
10-13 17:58:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x9331e9…
10-13 17:25:43	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x5349a8…
10-13 17:17:48	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xd93b59…
10-13 17:16:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x2a25da…
10-13 17:16:15	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 44 and 45 million views on day 4?	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0xf4e48a…
10-13 17:15:42	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 44 and 45 million views on day 4?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xdb18df…
10-13 17:15:27	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	82¢	$13	0xa22df4…
10-13 17:14:06	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 44 and 45 million views on day 4?	No	SELL	40	68¢	$27	0x78e4b0…
10-13 17:07:43	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 44 and 45 million views on day 4?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xf3c2b0…
10-13 17:07:43	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 44 and 45 million views on day 4?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xf3c2b0…
10-13 17:07:43	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 44 and 45 million views on day 4?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x9c9c03…
10-13 16:51:45	Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x00d382…
10-13 16:51:34	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x55f589…
10-13 16:49:01	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x617704…
10-13 16:47:09	Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xc6f5ae…
10-13 16:45:24	Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xebb04a…
10-13 16:34:09	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	SELL	27	71¢	$19	0xf50601…
10-13 16:33:12	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	SELL	73	71¢	$52	0x98ef78…
10-13 16:31:07	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x222756…
10-13 16:27:58	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 44 and 45 million views on day 4?	Yes	BUY	14	33¢	$5	0xb6f20b…
10-13 16:27:58	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 44 and 45 million views on day 4?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x388647…
10-13 16:27:58	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 44 and 45 million views on day 4?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x33ea87…
10-13 16:21:01	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 44 and 45 million views on day 4?	No	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xc873a6…
10-13 16:21:01	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 44 and 45 million views on day 4?	No	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x2cb468…
10-13 15:02:29	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xc09e46…
10-13 15:02:28	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$4	0x06eec1…
10-13 15:02:26	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x8686f4…
10-13 14:58:11	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	99	94¢	$92	0xc44035…