Good-Natured-Guarantee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$129

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

30.4%

Resolved

Trades

262

lifetime

Volume

$4.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-19

last 06-01 09:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Crypto

43% 43% -$78

Politics

32% 0% -$27

Sports

17% 14% -$19

Other

8% 50% -$5

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-01).

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	15	$1.1K	650	650	-0	open	—	05-31 19:23
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 31?	22	$392	770	695	+75	Yes	-$46	05-31 15:49
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	7	$369	323	204	+120	No	-$30	06-01 09:07
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	2	$291	150	150	+0	No	-$1	05-27 20:01
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-26?	8	$186	108	107	+1	Yes	+$29	04-26 19:50
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	5	$173	221	105	+116	Down	+$12	05-31 09:52
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$173	500	500	+0	No	-$3	05-31 22:48
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$172	500	500	+0	Yes	-$3	05-31 22:48
cs2 fal2 furia 2026 04 19	3	$142	117	59	+58	Team Falcons	+$4	04-19 15:29
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$112	500	500	+0	No	-$1	05-31 22:48
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$98	500	500	+0	No	-$4	05-31 22:48
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$89	500	500	+0	No	-$3	05-31 22:48
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$86	500	500	+0	No	+$3	05-31 22:48
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31?	10	$77	1,970	1,970	+0	Yes	-$53	05-31 10:44
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	9	$72	110	20	+90	Up	-$6	05-31 09:34
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	9	$58	188	0	+188	Up	-$15	05-31 09:18
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	6	$55	58	58	+0	Up	-$5	05-31 10:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	8	$54	69	28	+41	Down	-$10	05-31 10:03
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	1	$50	100	0	+100	Yes	+$50	05-27 20:02
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	7	$44	70	34	+36	Down	-$3	05-31 10:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	4	$43	43	43	+0	Down	+$3	05-31 13:34
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	5	$38	72	0	+72	Down	+$17	05-31 09:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	4	$35	71	71	+0	Up	-$33	05-31 09:49
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?	16	$33	1,559	1,354	+205	No	-$27	05-31 12:16
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	7	$31	89	47	+42	Down	+$3	05-31 09:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	2	$30	21	21	+0	Down	+$10	05-31 09:57
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	3	$28	33	17	+17	Down	+$14	05-31 08:36
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26?	1	$27	104	0	+104	No	-$27	04-26 16:11
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	6	$27	45	0	+45	Down	+$1	05-31 09:14
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026?	7	$26	200	200	+0	Yes	-$2	05-29 16:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 09:07:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x3df377…
06-01 09:06:04	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1?	No	SELL	15	70¢	$10	0x0736b8…
05-31 23:01:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x2e01b5…
05-31 23:00:32	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	16¢	$4	0x271db2…
05-31 22:58:04	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1?	No	SELL	15	33¢	$5	0x1bf681…
05-31 22:49:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	123	83¢	$102	0x9ca15e…
05-31 22:48:56	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	9¢	$43	0xed6f61…
05-31 22:48:51	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	9¢	$44	0x9041f0…
05-31 22:48:45	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	9¢	$46	0x41775c…
05-31 22:48:42	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	11¢	$56	0xd21cea…
05-31 22:48:37	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	17¢	$85	0x057a6e…
05-31 22:48:33	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	17¢	$84	0x9df7b7…
05-31 22:47:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	81	84¢	$68	0x20d5c9…
05-31 19:24:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	86	88¢	$76	0xccb0ad…
05-31 19:23:32	Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	No	SELL	88	83¢	$73	0x380feb…
05-31 15:49:17	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 31?	No	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x750cc3…
05-31 15:22:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	118	93¢	$109	0xc27e99…
05-31 14:52:44	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 31?	No	SELL	30	11¢	$3	0xc0bcef…
05-31 14:04:41	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0xb8d2d6…
05-31 13:42:38	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 31?	No	SELL	205	6¢	$12	0xdffc6a…
05-31 13:38:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x46e10d…
05-31 13:38:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	3	71¢	$2	0xac2ef0…
05-31 13:37:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0xab669a…
05-31 13:37:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	11	42¢	$5	0x82d5ca…
05-31 13:36:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x90b132…
05-31 13:34:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	SELL	27	83¢	$22	0xa33fc0…
05-31 13:34:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0xf4f9c1…
05-31 13:34:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	SELL	16	8¢	$1	0xa5f624…
05-31 13:31:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x8d2bd2…
05-31 12:16:11	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?	Yes	BUY	205	0¢	$1	0x1c58b0…
05-31 11:53:21	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 31?	No	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0xb2a981…
05-31 11:35:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x2e4de3…
05-31 11:34:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x845e5c…
05-31 11:33:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	SELL	15	92¢	$14	0x809ff9…
05-31 11:29:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xfa046e…
05-31 11:28:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x3157e8…
05-31 11:28:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x98a8df…
05-31 11:28:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x0fec4a…
05-31 11:26:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x8d5112…
05-31 11:22:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x71901a…
05-31 11:12:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	87¢	$5	0xab4606…
05-31 11:11:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xfae5d6…
05-31 11:07:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x0688cf…
05-31 11:06:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x3dcfd4…
05-31 11:05:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xc59d89…
05-31 11:01:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	SELL	29	16¢	$5	0x3e1063…
05-31 11:00:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x615be6…
05-31 11:00:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x7ca63f…
05-31 11:00:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xfe6886…
05-31 10:55:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xf67df1…
05-31 10:55:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x364b25…
05-31 10:50:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x3aad56…
05-31 10:44:40	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31?	No	SELL	1,970	1¢	$12	0x5ebb08…
05-31 10:34:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x08a2d2…
05-31 10:34:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x2e99e3…
05-31 10:34:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	SELL	11	8¢	$1	0x56ae5b…
05-31 10:33:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	SELL	4	12¢	$1	0x88cb24…
05-31 10:31:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xe7bf7e…
05-31 10:25:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xb22655…
05-31 10:21:02	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,354	0¢	$3	0x2920a6…
05-31 10:16:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x308a41…
05-31 10:15:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xc2cb80…
05-31 10:14:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	34	8¢	$3	0x618422…
05-31 10:12:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xa8c572…
05-31 10:12:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xae3d2b…
05-31 10:12:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x3eeb69…
05-31 10:12:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xc3efc0…
05-31 10:11:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x0ad467…
05-31 10:10:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x161087…
05-31 10:09:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	33	26¢	$8	0xcad2a9…
05-31 10:08:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	11	49¢	$5	0x7886ec…
05-31 10:07:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	14	78¢	$11	0xd5870d…
05-31 10:07:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x413c43…
05-31 10:07:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xb37ebd…
05-31 10:05:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x250502…
05-31 10:03:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x363974…
05-31 10:02:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x3816ba…
05-31 10:01:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xfe26c0…
05-31 10:01:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	14	24¢	$3	0xaf7c5d…
05-31 10:00:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	14	43¢	$6	0xd5d968…
05-31 09:59:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x3392f7…
05-31 09:58:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x6cbfef…
05-31 09:57:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xac4598…
05-31 09:57:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	21	92¢	$20	0xecd826…
05-31 09:54:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xbab31b…
05-31 09:52:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xe3b659…
05-31 09:51:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xc40cfc…
05-31 09:50:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	SELL	22	62¢	$14	0xc61891…
05-31 09:50:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	SELL	83	59¢	$48	0x1c04d0…
05-31 09:50:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	166	60¢	$100	0xb53f2b…
05-31 09:49:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	SELL	71	1¢	$1	0x3639ea…
05-31 09:48:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	21	19¢	$4	0x01c66f…
05-31 09:46:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	31	48¢	$15	0x3c0ec9…
05-31 09:45:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0x1f02d6…
05-31 09:44:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0x406297…
05-31 09:44:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	7	8¢	$1	0x9768ae…
05-31 09:43:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	12	11¢	$1	0x3f6ec2…
05-31 09:43:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	49	5¢	$2	0xd1ec26…
05-31 09:42:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xecc00e…
05-31 09:41:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x990711…