Grim-Restriction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

73.9%

Resolved

138

Trades

160

lifetime

Volume

$16.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$100

Open exposure

$144

1 position

First seen

2026-02-20

last 10-29 17:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 94 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 83% -$19

Other

26% 72% +$8

Sports

18% 28% -$2

Politics

4% 80% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No		-144	-$143	100¢	$-144	-$1	04-29 06:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$568	285	285	+0	No	$0	03-20 12:26
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$523	262	262	+0	No	$0	03-20 12:07
Will United Kingdom be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	2	$303	152	152	+0	No	$0	04-25 08:49
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$301	151	151	+0	No	$0	04-21 07:25
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$289	146	146	+0	No	$0	03-02 03:54
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$285	143	143	+0	No	$0	03-09 03:33
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?	2	$282	142	142	+0	No	$0	03-02 04:24
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$274	137	137	+0	No	$0	05-11 03:42
Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$270	135	135	+0	No	$0	05-16 07:33
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$270	136	136	+0	No	$0	05-09 07:18
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$260	130	130	+0	No	$0	05-11 04:00
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$260	130	130	+0	No	$0	05-06 10:51
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$260	131	131	+0	open	—	05-14 10:59
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship?	2	$260	131	131	+0	open	—	05-23 06:00
bitcoin above 76k on april 11	1	$153	154	0	+154	No	+$0	04-11 12:22
bitcoin above 66k on april 10	1	$153	153	0	+153	Yes	+$0	04-10 03:37
will the price of ethereum be between 1800 1900 on april 9	1	$153	153	0	+153	No	+$0	04-09 03:58
ethereum above 1900 on april 6	1	$153	153	0	+153	Yes	+$0	04-06 07:34
will the price of ethereum be between 1800 1900 on april 7	1	$153	153	0	+153	No	+$0	04-07 06:02
bitcoin above 66k on april 8	1	$153	153	0	+153	Yes	+$0	04-08 08:57
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 260 279	1	$151	152	0	+152	No	+$0	04-24 04:26
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 25?	1	$151	151	0	+151	No	+$0	04-25 08:53
ethereum above 2100 on april 21	1	$150	150	0	+150	Yes	+$0	04-21 07:38
will the price of ethereum be between 2000 2100 on april 16	1	$149	149	0	+149	No	+$0	04-16 12:13
will the price of ethereum be between 2500 2600 on april 15	1	$149	149	0	+149	No	+$0	04-15 10:58
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27?	1	$149	149	0	+149	No	+$0	04-27 05:52
bitcoin above 70k on april 14	1	$149	149	0	+149	Yes	+$0	04-14 10:20
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 26?	1	$149	149	0	+149	No	+$0	04-26 08:38
bitcoin above 66k on april 13	1	$149	149	0	+149	Yes	+$0	04-13 06:45
ethereum above 1800 on april 2	1	$148	148	0	+148	Yes	+$0	04-02 10:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:40:53	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $200 in October?	No	BUY	119	100¢	$119	0x7a29c4…
09-30 15:18:42	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x009a36…
09-30 15:18:39	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in September?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0dc6a2…
08-28 08:25:55	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in August?	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0x6205d8…
07-17 06:51:45	will open reach 6 25 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x4d419e…
07-17 06:51:03	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	13	59¢	$8	0x6d5aa0…
06-26 07:53:55	Will Meta (META) close at >$620 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26?	No	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0xbf309c…
05-31 08:09:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0xfd76c9…
05-31 08:03:00	LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs	RED Canids	BUY	8	67¢	$5	0x0de750…
05-31 07:59:42	Will ByteDance have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x776941…
05-31 07:54:58	Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x4bcdce…
05-29 08:33:02	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0xc71775…
05-29 08:24:24	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on May 30?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x668e36…
05-27 10:30:13	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0x2ea8b4…
05-26 12:01:27	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,200	0¢	$4	0x1cce8c…
05-26 07:02:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	600	0¢	$2	0x17eea5…
05-26 06:55:54	LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	9	37¢	$3	0xbb4426…
05-24 12:12:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	2,200	0¢	$4	0xd4f68d…
05-24 12:08:41	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x7c865a…
05-23 06:11:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23?	Yes	BUY	138	100¢	$138	0xcaf0ff…
05-23 06:00:03	Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	SELL	131	99¢	$130	0x9e100f…
05-23 04:48:55	Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	BUY	131	99¢	$130	0x6bc980…
05-21 05:21:21	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	900	0¢	$2	0x358b37…
05-21 05:19:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0xe8b367…
05-20 12:02:21	spy closes above 715 on may 20 2026	Yes	BUY	132	100¢	$132	0x5e9365…
05-20 11:47:23	Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann	Luciano Darderi	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xc90a8d…
05-19 12:30:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	138	100¢	$138	0x8e45aa…
05-18 09:14:33	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x766561…
05-18 09:11:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0x1febc7…
05-17 12:27:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$6	0xe8eb66…
05-16 07:42:56	Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	144	100¢	$144	0xc24b5b…
05-16 07:33:36	Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	135	100¢	$135	0xecb475…
05-16 07:00:49	Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	135	100¢	$135	0x88d337…
05-15 07:50:47	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $117 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	145	100¢	$144	0x5f9505…
05-14 11:05:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	135	100¢	$135	0x156998…
05-14 10:59:06	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	131	99¢	$130	0x2917ef…
05-14 10:42:30	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	PARIVISION	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xd45f98…
05-14 10:35:04	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	131	99¢	$130	0x732c9a…
05-13 06:17:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	142	100¢	$141	0xbc0102…
05-12 07:53:06	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	141	100¢	$141	0x08e53f…
05-11 04:12:35	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 11?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x00804b…
05-11 04:00:58	Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	130	100¢	$130	0xd0e621…
05-11 03:44:51	Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x4be2ff…
05-11 03:42:36	Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	137	100¢	$137	0x7b4517…
05-11 03:30:52	Zagreb: Lukas Neumayer vs Shintaro Mochizuki	Shintaro Mochizuki	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x0cc8c2…
05-11 03:24:52	Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	137	100¢	$137	0x664f5b…
05-10 03:08:33	Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 10?	Yes	BUY	142	100¢	$142	0xad06db…
05-09 07:29:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9?	No	BUY	142	100¢	$142	0xad6258…
05-09 07:18:08	Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	136	99¢	$135	0x0f6360…
05-09 07:01:31	Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	136	100¢	$135	0x238514…
05-08 04:09:15	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	142	100¢	$142	0x7ededb…
05-07 12:54:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 7?	No	BUY	141	100¢	$141	0x700745…
05-06 10:58:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6?	No	BUY	141	100¢	$141	0xcec009…
05-06 10:51:38	Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	130	100¢	$130	0x7b15bf…
05-06 09:10:54	Brazzaville: Karan Singh vs Digvijaypratap Singh	Digvijaypratap Singh	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0xfa78e9…
05-06 09:04:34	Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0xbafb0f…
05-05 04:11:00	Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	144	99¢	$143	0xeedfbb…
05-04 11:09:16	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	No	BUY	143	100¢	$143	0xdf845d…
05-03 05:44:00	Will XRP dip to $1.15 on May 3?	No	BUY	87	100¢	$86	0x5907d6…
05-02 04:49:18	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 2?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x932399…
05-02 04:48:32	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on May 2?	No	BUY	86	100¢	$86	0x7ff275…
05-01 08:00:32	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $695 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	143	100¢	$143	0xc2c4a7…
04-30 06:37:00	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	BUY	142	100¢	$142	0x9512f8…
04-29 07:17:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 29?	Yes	BUY	142	100¢	$142	0xc2a24b…
04-29 06:49:00	Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	SELL	144	99¢	$143	0x1d3404…
04-28 09:30:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	720	0¢	$2	0x89b9a9…
04-28 09:28:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28?	Yes	BUY	668	1¢	$4	0xa19d2c…
04-27 05:52:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27?	No	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0x3ea125…
04-26 08:38:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 26?	No	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0x927e12…
04-26 08:30:32	Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Chicago Cubs	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xc749c3…
04-25 08:53:26	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 25?	No	BUY	151	100¢	$151	0x5693ad…
04-25 08:49:00	Will United Kingdom be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	152	99¢	$151	0x37b171…
04-25 08:28:42	Will United Kingdom be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	152	100¢	$151	0xa5f3e2…
04-24 04:26:48	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 260 279	No	BUY	152	100¢	$151	0x4a70ca…
04-23 08:31:52	bitcoin above 72k on april 23	Yes	BUY	146	100¢	$146	0xd73312…
04-23 08:21:32	Abidjan: Karim Bennani vs Paul Jubb	Karim Bennani	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x9e6b48…
04-22 06:57:24	bitcoin above 72k on april 22	No	BUY	725	0¢	$1	0x3d30ad…
04-22 06:55:44	will the price of ethereum be between 2000 2100 on april 22	Yes	BUY	620	0¢	$1	0x42b1d7…
04-21 07:38:40	ethereum above 2100 on april 21	Yes	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xaaf1bb…
04-21 07:25:14	Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	151	100¢	$150	0xe6baff…
04-21 07:05:30	Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	151	100¢	$150	0xed572d…
04-20 04:58:18	bitcoin above 80k on april 20	No	BUY	143	100¢	$143	0xd28b22…
04-20 03:58:46	Shymkent: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Gijs Brouwer	Petr Bar Biryukov	BUY	8	32¢	$2	0xc1a246…
04-19 12:01:14	will the price of ethereum be between 2000 2100 on april 19	No	BUY	146	100¢	$145	0x1e751c…
04-19 11:44:52	New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs	New York Mets	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0x7884cd…
04-16 12:13:36	will the price of ethereum be between 2000 2100 on april 16	No	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0x70ef2f…
04-15 10:58:18	will the price of ethereum be between 2500 2600 on april 15	No	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0x8f4811…
04-14 10:20:23	bitcoin above 70k on april 14	Yes	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0x1d82ec…
04-13 06:45:47	bitcoin above 66k on april 13	Yes	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0xe82c59…
04-12 08:44:39	will the price of ethereum be greater than 2500 on april 12	Yes	BUY	850	0¢	$2	0xf12dd0…
04-12 08:40:53	ethereum above 2000 on april 12	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x565645…
04-12 08:39:51	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 76000 on april 12	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x570c88…
04-12 08:39:29	bitcoin above 68k on april 12	No	BUY	1,495	0¢	$3	0xbec3eb…
04-12 07:52:21	mlb mia det 2026 04 12	Detroit Tigers	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0xecdb5b…
04-11 12:22:15	bitcoin above 76k on april 11	No	BUY	154	100¢	$153	0xdffaf7…
04-10 03:37:01	bitcoin above 66k on april 10	Yes	BUY	153	100¢	$153	0x40f038…
04-09 03:58:31	will the price of ethereum be between 1800 1900 on april 9	No	BUY	153	100¢	$153	0x753758…
04-08 08:57:01	bitcoin above 66k on april 8	Yes	BUY	153	100¢	$153	0x155c26…
04-07 06:02:35	will the price of ethereum be between 1800 1900 on april 7	No	BUY	153	100¢	$153	0x307d70…
04-06 07:34:17	ethereum above 1900 on april 6	Yes	BUY	153	100¢	$153	0x414232…