Quixotic-Greens — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$62

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

45.7%

Resolved

Trades

259

lifetime

Volume

$623

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-26

last 08-20 06:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 32 days

Categories

Politics

51% 43% -$28

Other

34% 50% -$25

Tech

8% 50% -$2

Crypto

4% 0% $0

Sports

3% 17% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes		+31	$6	0¢	$0	-$6	05-29 15:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	4	$29	64	64	+0	open	—	07-02 05:44
iran closes its airspace by june 15	15	$29	37	37	+0	Yes	-$6	06-07 21:34
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	5	$19	20	20	+0	open	—	06-13 06:00
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	8	$17	15	15	+0	Yes	-$2	06-13 17:30
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	6	$17	12	12	+0	No	+$1	06-07 23:27
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	6	$15	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-09 17:10
anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	4	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	07-02 05:48
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	3	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	07-01 14:49
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	4	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	07-01 14:49
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	4	$13	7	7	+0	Yes	+$1	05-28 17:05
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	3	$13	7	7	+0	No	+$1	07-01 14:49
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	6	$13	40	40	+0	No	-$5	07-02 05:47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$13	12	12	+0	open	—	07-01 14:49
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	3	$13	15	15	+0	open	—	07-01 14:49
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	3	$13	9	9	+0	open	—	07-01 14:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	3	$12	9	9	+0	open	—	07-01 14:49
russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	3	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	07-01 14:49
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	4	$12	8	8	+0	No	+$0	06-01 00:30
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	3	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	07-02 05:50
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?	3	$12	9	9	+0	Yes	$0	07-01 14:49
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	3	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	07-01 14:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	6	$11	22	22	+0	No	+$1	06-14 22:07
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	3	$11	9	9	+0	open	—	07-01 14:49
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	3	$11	13	13	+0	No	+$0	06-10 09:10
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	4	$11	8	8	+0	No	-$1	06-14 11:11
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	4	$11	12	12	+0	open	—	07-02 05:45
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	8	$10	56	56	+0	Yes	-$2	06-09 19:45
iran closes its airspace by june 8	3	$10	10	10	+0	Yes	$0	06-07 20:29
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	3	$10	9	9	+0	open	—	07-02 05:50
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	6	$10	67	0	+67	Yes	-$10	06-07 01:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-20 06:34:10	lol dk hle1 2026 08 20	Dplus KIA	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0x053f52…
07-02 05:53:32	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	36	2¢	$1	0xb810a0…
07-02 05:52:47	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0xd33ee0…
07-02 05:52:19	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	17¢	$1	0x8b5ef0…
07-02 05:51:59	will ink launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	8	46¢	$4	0x8d2f39…
07-02 05:51:38	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xb96ec8…
07-02 05:51:19	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x21358e…
07-02 05:50:56	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0xed0a4a…
07-02 05:50:19	Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	41¢	$4	0xaa50a5…
07-02 05:49:49	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x84afa9…
07-02 05:49:20	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0xc58a7d…
07-02 05:48:29	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	Anthropic	SELL	9	78¢	$7	0x2a16af…
07-02 05:47:40	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$0	0x6712f0…
07-02 05:47:19	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?	Yes	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0x0af532…
07-02 05:47:04	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	SELL	40	10¢	$4	0x280350…
07-02 05:46:37	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0xc21ce1…
07-02 05:45:46	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	43¢	$5	0x2e6557…
07-02 05:44:59	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	64	39¢	$25	0x6d87b1…
07-01 14:49:44	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xfd94ed…
07-01 14:49:43	sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	No	SELL	2	83¢	$1	0x70210a…
07-01 14:49:41	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x967937…
07-01 14:49:37	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x8ed257…
07-01 14:49:35	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	SELL	7	86¢	$6	0x2f84bb…
07-01 14:49:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	7	90¢	$7	0x96775e…
07-01 14:49:32	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x1cbbbf…
07-01 14:49:29	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0x537baf…
07-01 14:49:28	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0x043ea6…
07-01 14:49:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	74¢	$6	0xa41856…
07-01 14:49:26	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	9	75¢	$7	0x73b7fd…
07-01 14:49:23	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	58¢	$5	0x08273b…
07-01 14:49:22	Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?	No	SELL	9	62¢	$6	0x0e2890…
07-01 14:49:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	55¢	$7	0x0b7511…
07-01 14:49:19	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	15	44¢	$7	0x43c728…
06-27 22:37:10	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xf6b7a6…
06-27 22:30:23	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xef92dd…
06-27 21:04:43	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x37c0ec…
06-25 02:22:32	will donald trump publicly insult nicols maduro by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x16b165…
06-24 19:13:56	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x6f3942…
06-24 17:50:02	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x3eb0cb…
06-23 21:11:56	Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x743d92…
06-22 19:11:49	Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x4859f6…
06-22 12:48:04	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xeb7c5d…
06-19 12:40:05	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x062ab4…
06-19 10:19:10	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xb0b6d7…
06-16 22:08:43	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x8a0080…
06-16 21:33:16	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	15	15¢	$2	0xe35c6e…
06-16 03:42:19	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x9c4567…
06-15 21:50:46	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x64811b…
06-15 18:03:03	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x4be83e…
06-15 17:54:55	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	SELL	2	4¢	$0	0x2ec641…
06-15 16:38:45	will donald trump publicly insult nicols maduro by june 30 2026	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x3efc90…
06-15 13:53:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xdd07aa…
06-15 13:34:07	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x0417c3…
06-15 07:15:40	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	Anthropic	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x25078e…
06-15 06:22:18	will trump dance during ufc freedom 250 20260608192801479	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x5f555e…
06-15 06:03:31	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x46aceb…
06-15 05:12:27	will trump dance during ufc freedom 250 20260608192801479	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x1ef3d2…
06-15 04:23:30	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x61d43c…
06-15 04:04:45	Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xe7d4d0…
06-14 23:21:04	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	No	BUY	4	65¢	$3	0x31e383…
06-14 23:17:39	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xc80fa7…
06-14 22:07:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0x897a03…
06-14 22:04:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0x6f487a…
06-14 22:00:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0xea64a1…
06-14 20:06:34	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x69ae66…
06-14 18:47:36	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 total 9pt5	Over	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xb546ea…
06-14 18:44:06	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 total 9pt5	Over	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xfdde19…
06-14 18:38:09	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 total 9pt5	Over	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x7cae38…
06-14 18:33:43	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 total 9pt5	Over	SELL	25	1¢	$0	0x778bcc…
06-14 16:13:46	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 total 9pt5	Over	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x15f15a…
06-14 11:32:25	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xb91a61…
06-14 11:11:39	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	3	59¢	$2	0xf6c3ec…
06-14 11:09:13	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x973c9b…
06-14 05:35:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xf7fde9…
06-13 17:57:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0x87a62c…
06-13 17:30:42	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	4	37¢	$1	0x530e7f…
06-13 17:30:39	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xebfe10…
06-13 17:29:01	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x3aea71…
06-13 15:43:12	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xad51a2…
06-13 15:03:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x7ef813…
06-13 12:13:39	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x3ef905…
06-13 11:53:04	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	83¢	$1	0xec950d…
06-13 09:54:21	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	39¢	$1	0x812199…
06-13 09:52:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x5a4539…
06-13 06:27:51	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x726202…
06-13 06:04:03	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x83c8b9…
06-13 06:00:28	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x8c47a1…
06-13 05:54:36	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x69ec8b…
06-13 05:48:19	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0x05cbcf…
06-11 21:07:48	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x6d9b75…
06-11 20:31:27	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0x43010c…
06-11 19:13:28	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x1688f7…
06-11 18:21:10	will trump say six seven this week 20260605142537476	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xa5ebec…
06-11 17:57:55	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x58e349…
06-11 17:33:48	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xf40e71…
06-11 17:13:54	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0xd39f1f…
06-11 17:11:09	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xa14051…
06-11 12:20:24	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xe79b5c…
06-11 12:20:01	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x8afb84…
06-11 11:56:25	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x0e1ef6…