Partial-Macadamia — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14.4K

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

68.6%

Resolved

1,041

Trades

3,442

lifetime

Volume

$1.00M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$291

Open exposure

$187

1 position

First seen

2026-03-25

last 08-30 03:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 90 days

Categories

Politics

39% 37% -$28,770

Other

32% 62% +$22,176

Sports

30% 58% +$20,997

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		-1,010	-$190	18¢	$-187	+$3	06-13 02:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	239	$152.9K	216,305	200,630	+15,675	Yes	-$30,348	06-17 01:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	67	$97.9K	49,519	54,640	-5,121	No	+$5,729	06-01 00:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	170	$94.8K	53,802	51,925	+1,877	No	+$6,708	05-26 16:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	49	$48.3K	22,824	28,761	-5,937	No	+$2,629	05-07 11:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	36	$40.4K	44,629	300	+44,329	No	+$4,470	05-26 22:42
nba atl mia 2026 04 12	7	$28.1K	16,232	16,105	+127	Heat	+$4,204	04-13 00:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	27	$23.9K	22,492	1,981	+20,511	No	+$346	05-23 01:39
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	24	$19.8K	20,380	20,380	+0	Yes	+$472	08-30 03:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	37	$19.4K	9,378	10,890	-1,511	No	+$820	05-14 19:07
nba lac mil 2026 03 29	4	$17.1K	18,634	0	+18,634	Clippers	+$1,491	03-29 19:19
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	36	$15.9K	9,362	9,662	-300	No	-$687	06-14 21:51
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	19	$15.3K	8,011	8,011	+0	No	+$142	06-13 05:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	85	$11.8K	10,289	11,134	-845	No	+$216	05-24 11:57
cs2 vit navi 2026 03 29	2	$10.3K	12,160	0	+12,160	Vitality	+$1,824	03-29 09:43
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	40	$8.5K	5,770	5,321	+449	Atlanta Braves	+$1,636	04-25 01:34
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 254.5	83	$8.1K	11,136	7,621	+3,515	Under	+$2,849	04-30 02:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	15	$7.8K	8,430	8,430	+0	Yes	-$5,711	06-14 21:45
nba cha nyk 2026 04 12	3	$7.0K	5,402	2,691	+2,712	Hornets	+$326	04-12 18:32
Magic vs. Pistons	33	$6.0K	6,353	0	+6,353	Pistons	+$345	05-03 21:30
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$5.9K	7,853	0	+7,853	Yes	+$1,904	07-29 14:23
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	3	$5.6K	7,459	0	+7,459	No	+$1,810	07-29 17:34
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	18	$5.6K	2,612	4,612	-2,000	No	-$495	06-14 21:49
nba nop tor 2026 03 27	6	$4.7K	6,281	0	+6,281	Raptors	+$1,547	03-28 00:36
nba okc lac 2026 04 08	6	$4.3K	5,624	0	+5,624	Thunder	+$1,324	04-09 02:09
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	46	$4.2K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	+$381	08-28 16:42
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)	25	$4.2K	4,224	1,570	+2,654	Raptors	+$601	04-30 02:09
cbb pur arz 2026 03 28	21	$3.9K	5,706	0	+5,706	Arizona Wildcats	+$1,756	03-29 01:30
nba den sas 2026 04 12	5	$3.8K	3,915	3,887	+27	Nuggets	-$2,177	04-13 01:41
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	5	$3.7K	4,373	0	+4,373	No	+$697	06-07 07:42
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	26	$3.6K	7,900	8,910	-1,010	open	—	06-13 02:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-30 03:27:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	3,530	53¢	$1,871	0xaa0ec2…
08-29 03:02:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	3,530	54¢	$1,906	0xc429eb…
08-29 02:08:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	55¢	$275	0xabb731…
08-28 19:24:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3,000	50¢	$1,500	0xbc2554…
08-28 18:04:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2,374	49¢	$1,163	0x9f3eda…
08-28 17:38:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	892	48¢	$428	0x264ee6…
08-28 17:38:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	115	48¢	$55	0xefe2cc…
08-28 17:38:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	666	48¢	$320	0x9f147c…
08-28 17:38:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	900	48¢	$432	0x342ddf…
08-28 17:38:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	200	48¢	$96	0xd3b3ec…
08-28 17:30:40	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x761b8d…
08-28 17:30:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	28	48¢	$14	0xa9d2b7…
08-28 17:30:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0x98ed86…
08-28 17:29:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	28	48¢	$13	0x1bfe73…
08-28 17:29:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	306	48¢	$147	0xb3d9d3…
08-28 16:58:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	3,561	47¢	$1,673	0xf22264…
08-28 16:42:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,500	47¢	$705	0x1f5cea…
08-28 16:41:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	4,220	47¢	$1,983	0xec0cf0…
08-25 04:53:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	65¢	$650	0x310015…
08-25 02:08:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,500	64¢	$960	0xc5eed8…
08-21 09:06:51	mlb det cle 2026 06 14 total 7pt5	Under	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x0875d7…
08-13 03:50:39	mlb det cle 2026 06 14 total 7pt5	Under	SELL	6	50¢	$3	0x9b2316…
08-07 04:56:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	64	48¢	$31	0xec13f0…
08-07 04:54:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x48a4f4…
08-07 04:45:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	48¢	$15	0x318e16…
08-07 04:42:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	275	48¢	$132	0x6b0715…
08-07 04:41:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xeb3417…
08-07 04:13:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x615141…
08-07 04:04:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x3a32eb…
08-07 03:56:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x96c0c9…
08-07 03:43:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x416b3c…
08-07 03:39:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x4f2879…
08-07 03:37:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x3e0a87…
08-07 03:35:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xb662e0…
08-07 03:34:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xe0ad58…
08-07 03:32:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x2ac6f3…
08-07 03:29:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x55a955…
08-07 03:28:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x3d4f59…
08-07 03:23:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x81ddd4…
08-07 03:13:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x836d3a…
08-07 03:09:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x497f72…
08-07 02:56:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xc066bb…
08-07 02:55:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xfc9903…
08-07 02:54:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xedfe04…
08-07 02:49:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x18e804…
08-07 02:45:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xa0d8c2…
08-07 02:43:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x2c78c1…
08-07 02:39:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x710fd8…
08-07 02:35:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x8744be…
08-07 02:30:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x889196…
08-07 02:28:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xbc7130…
08-07 02:21:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x29d6cd…
08-07 02:21:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x275073…
08-07 02:17:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x10f8cf…
08-07 02:15:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x5a675c…
08-07 01:59:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x8343aa…
08-07 01:53:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xafc0b3…
08-07 01:32:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	881	48¢	$423	0xde3f39…
08-07 00:50:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	397	48¢	$190	0xdef4d6…
08-06 23:43:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0xff0dab…
08-06 23:42:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	334	48¢	$160	0x7aa313…
08-06 23:26:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	49	48¢	$23	0xaec89e…
08-06 22:27:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	24	48¢	$12	0x5ab540…
08-06 22:03:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	362	48¢	$174	0xacd287…
08-06 12:15:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,400	53¢	$742	0x5c6cb2…
08-05 00:21:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,400	49¢	$686	0x9e9eb7…
08-04 20:06:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,849	54¢	$1,538	0xa7e1b8…
08-04 20:05:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	415	53¢	$220	0xc5e8a8…
08-04 13:02:50	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4,016	48¢	$1,928	0x8fc59c…
08-03 03:48:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,400	42¢	$1,008	0x0fb195…
08-02 22:57:53	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,800	43¢	$1,204	0x3a560e…
08-02 18:02:59	mlb det cle 2026 06 14 total 7pt5	Under	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xb924ac…
08-02 18:02:59	mlb det cle 2026 06 14 total 7pt5	Under	SELL	13	50¢	$6	0x4b89d9…
08-01 19:45:11	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3,000	41¢	$1,230	0x55cbb7…
07-29 17:34:53	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6,413	76¢	$4,861	0xfcda73…
07-29 14:24:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	850	75¢	$638	0x317564…
07-29 14:23:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,788	75¢	$2,099	0xba8af3…
07-29 14:15:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,065	76¢	$3,850	0x69a617…
07-29 14:06:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	196	76¢	$150	0x1a9fd3…
07-23 12:50:49	mlb det cle 2026 06 14 total 7pt5	Under	SELL	38	50¢	$19	0xc57457…
07-16 16:46:58	mlb det cle 2026 06 14 total 7pt5	Under	SELL	220	50¢	$110	0x3c3f14…
07-15 10:57:43	mlb det cle 2026 06 14 total 7pt5	Under	SELL	15	50¢	$8	0x3144b6…
06-25 06:09:44	mlb det cle 2026 06 14 total 7pt5	Under	BUY	2	23¢	$1	0x87c09d…
06-23 01:44:52	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 goals cristiano ronaldo gte1	No	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0x74db5e…
06-21 21:34:28	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 goals cristiano ronaldo gte1	No	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0xf70496…
06-21 19:59:43	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 goals cristiano ronaldo gte1	No	BUY	25	48¢	$12	0x831a01…
06-21 19:57:23	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	900	47¢	$423	0x14d96e…
06-19 23:05:38	mlb sd tex 2026 06 19 total 7pt5	Under	BUY	109	55¢	$60	0x96bf54…
06-19 22:55:47	mlb sd tex 2026 06 19 total 7pt5	Under	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xb144b3…
06-19 22:49:38	mlb sd tex 2026 06 19 total 7pt5	Under	BUY	33	55¢	$18	0x75fc06…
06-19 21:18:43	mlb sd tex 2026 06 19 total 7pt5	Under	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xe2d899…
06-19 21:18:38	mlb sd tex 2026 06 19 total 7pt5	Under	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x6ec018…
06-19 21:13:19	mlb sd tex 2026 06 19 total 7pt5	Under	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0xb9162e…
06-19 20:22:58	mlb sd tex 2026 06 19 total 7pt5	Under	BUY	146	55¢	$80	0x491acd…
06-19 19:13:56	fifwc usa aus 2026 06 19 team total home 1pt5	Over	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xb6dd69…
06-19 19:13:50	fifwc usa aus 2026 06 19 team total home 1pt5	Over	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xf1dcc2…
06-19 19:13:50	fifwc usa aus 2026 06 19 team total home 1pt5	Over	SELL	160	77¢	$123	0x8ce934…
06-19 19:13:19	fifwc usa aus 2026 06 19 team total home 1pt5	Over	SELL	8	77¢	$6	0x75c479…
06-19 19:13:14	fifwc usa aus 2026 06 19 team total home 1pt5	Over	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0xd9c84f…
06-19 19:13:08	fifwc usa aus 2026 06 19 team total home 1pt5	Over	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x3d3d5c…