Puzzling-Degradation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$22

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

99.4%

Resolved

Trades

642

lifetime

Volume

$12.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$15

1 position

First seen

2026-01-24

last 07-20 07:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

42% 50% +$7

Politics

29% — —

Crypto

26% 100% +$15

Tech

3% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 178 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes		-63	$-13	24¢	$-15	$-2	07-20 07:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$403	222	222	+0	open	—	05-08 23:08
will ethereum reach 3600 in january 2026	3	$351	177	177	+0	open	—	01-31 04:15
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$309	216	216	+0	open	—	04-23 02:53
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	4	$309	331	0	+331	open	—	02-13 23:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$307	403	403	+0	open	—	07-12 22:26
will bitcoin reach 77k on april 20	1	$293	295	0	+295	open	—	04-21 02:07
spx up or down on april 22 2026	2	$292	147	147	+0	open	—	04-22 22:03
Iran leadership change by April 30?	2	$291	148	148	+0	open	—	05-01 06:16
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$270	145	145	+0	open	—	04-22 17:38
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	2	$262	141	141	+0	open	—	04-27 02:02
will silver si hit high 130 by end of january 314 277 552 989	2	$254	129	129	+0	open	—	01-30 17:47
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$247	322	0	+322	open	—	01-31 04:40
bitcoin above 78k on april 18	1	$234	298	0	+298	open	—	04-17 21:19
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$231	141	141	+0	open	—	05-26 07:55
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	3	$204	114	114	+0	open	—	06-22 22:09
will bitcoin reach 76k on april 16	1	$200	203	0	+203	open	—	04-17 01:42
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	2	$198	100	100	+0	open	—	01-28 22:37
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9?	1	$195	197	0	+197	Yes	+$2	05-09 15:02
will grok 4pt20 not be released by january 31 2026	2	$193	100	100	+0	open	—	01-30 17:46
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	2	$160	2,997	0	+2,997	open	—	06-19 22:48
msft above 420 on january 30 2026	2	$146	150	0	+150	open	—	01-30 00:06
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 25?	2	$131	144	0	+144	open	—	04-26 00:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$126	71	71	+0	open	—	05-15 08:47
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$125	128	0	+128	open	—	01-24 02:42
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	1	$120	121	0	+121	open	—	04-23 03:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$117	0	145	-145	open	—	06-08 00:59
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	2	$112	74	74	+0	open	—	05-20 02:37
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$111	58	58	+0	open	—	06-22 22:11
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	1	$110	155	0	+155	open	—	04-03 07:17
will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	2	$106	63	63	+0	open	—	06-22 22:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 07:43:34	btc updown 5m 1784533200	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb0aae6…
07-20 07:43:24	btc updown 5m 1784533200	Down	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0xb954f8…
07-20 07:43:04	btc updown 5m 1784533200	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x7f0394…
07-20 07:42:48	btc updown 5m 1784533200	Up	SELL	4	85¢	$4	0xd9650e…
07-20 07:41:42	btc updown 5m 1784533200	Up	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0xae273f…
07-20 07:39:16	btc updown 5m 1784532900	Down	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0xca04f8…
07-20 07:36:03	btc updown 5m 1784532900	Down	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x490806…
07-20 07:32:54	btc updown 5m 1784532600	Up	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x204aec…
07-20 07:32:13	btc updown 5m 1784532600	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x792258…
07-20 07:31:52	btc updown 5m 1784532600	Down	SELL	11	47¢	$5	0x79f8ab…
07-20 07:31:22	btc updown 5m 1784532600	Down	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0xdb85ef…
07-20 07:29:24	btc updown 5m 1784532300	Down	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x8a598c…
07-20 07:27:54	btc updown 5m 1784532300	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x304904…
07-20 07:27:34	btc updown 5m 1784532300	Down	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0xaa68b5…
07-20 07:27:04	btc updown 5m 1784532300	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xfb9489…
07-20 07:23:52	btc updown 5m 1784532000	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x1044d4…
07-20 07:22:45	btc updown 5m 1784532000	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xafcd94…
07-20 07:15:01	btc updown 5m 1784531400	Down	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x020561…
07-20 07:14:42	btc updown 5m 1784531400	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xf3b4f2…
07-20 07:14:22	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	23¢	$3	0x3d4afb…
07-20 02:14:12	btc updown 5m 1784513400	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x04edc3…
07-20 02:11:37	btc updown 5m 1784513400	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x0a8d1b…
07-20 02:10:03	btc updown 5m 1784513100	Up	SELL	5	52¢	$2	0xe54182…
07-20 02:05:19	btc updown 5m 1784513100	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xe0787a…
07-20 02:05:03	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	23¢	$2	0x106d96…
07-20 02:01:36	btc updown 5m 1784512800	Down	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x732ea3…
07-20 01:58:04	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0x0679a5…
07-20 01:57:25	btc updown 5m 1784512500	Down	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x2773c4…
07-20 01:55:16	btc updown 5m 1784512500	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x38bf63…
07-20 01:54:46	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	23¢	$3	0x5dc5df…
07-20 01:50:48	btc updown 5m 1784512200	Up	BUY	42	21¢	$9	0x809c48…
07-20 01:49:54	btc updown 5m 1784511900	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xe77e40…
07-20 01:49:40	btc updown 5m 1784511900	Up	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0x4ad292…
07-20 01:49:15	btc updown 5m 1784511900	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x5587ab…
07-20 01:48:58	btc updown 5m 1784511900	Up	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x79d68f…
07-20 01:47:31	btc updown 5m 1784511900	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x3d71fd…
07-20 01:47:16	btc updown 5m 1784511900	Up	SELL	9	21¢	$2	0xe03520…
07-20 01:45:36	btc updown 5m 1784511900	Down	SELL	9	56¢	$5	0x440905…
07-20 01:45:24	btc updown 5m 1784511900	Down	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x704512…
07-20 01:45:09	btc updown 5m 1784511900	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x8314a3…
07-20 01:42:16	btc updown 5m 1784511600	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf822d5…
07-20 01:41:39	btc updown 5m 1784511600	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x07981e…
07-20 01:41:18	btc updown 5m 1784511600	Down	SELL	11	60¢	$7	0xa16371…
07-20 01:40:30	btc updown 5m 1784511600	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xad80b8…
07-20 01:38:36	btc updown 5m 1784511300	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x83d60c…
07-20 01:38:16	btc updown 5m 1784511300	Down	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xae8e56…
07-20 01:37:57	btc updown 5m 1784511300	Up	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0x265a97…
07-20 01:37:46	btc updown 5m 1784511300	Up	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x791cab…
07-20 01:37:10	btc updown 5m 1784511300	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xee50a5…
07-20 01:36:51	btc updown 5m 1784511300	Up	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0xadb222…
07-20 01:35:36	btc updown 5m 1784511300	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xbc2153…
07-20 01:32:37	btc updown 5m 1784511000	Up	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0x1df0e0…
07-20 01:32:21	btc updown 5m 1784511000	Up	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xf486a4…
07-20 01:32:09	btc updown 5m 1784511000	Down	SELL	7	42¢	$3	0xa6ac43…
07-20 01:31:48	btc updown 5m 1784511000	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xeec8ba…
07-19 23:42:27	btc updown 5m 1784504400	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x1beb20…
07-19 23:39:18	btc updown 5m 1784504100	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc0119c…
07-19 23:39:09	btc updown 5m 1784504100	Up	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0x6d7ca1…
07-19 23:36:40	btc updown 5m 1784504100	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xccf93d…
07-12 23:20:40	btc updown 5m 1783898400	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xa27bb3…
07-12 23:20:25	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0xdbd2a5…
07-12 23:13:25	btc updown 5m 1783897800	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x72e0ac…
07-12 23:13:01	btc updown 5m 1783897800	Up	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x363ff0…
07-12 23:11:49	btc updown 5m 1783897800	Up	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xb55687…
07-12 23:09:28	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0x2a970d…
07-12 23:08:32	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	18¢	$0	0x6d42d2…
07-12 23:07:44	btc updown 5m 1783897500	Down	SELL	6	11¢	$1	0x597329…
07-12 23:05:19	btc updown 5m 1783897500	Down	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0xd05ad7…
07-12 23:03:47	btc updown 5m 1783897200	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x446311…
07-12 23:03:23	btc updown 5m 1783897200	Up	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x0d25fc…
07-12 23:00:20	btc updown 5m 1783897200	Up	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0x7bd774…
07-12 22:57:25	btc updown 5m 1783896900	Down	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xe598d6…
07-12 22:56:50	btc updown 5m 1783896900	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x0fae61…
07-12 22:56:40	btc updown 5m 1783896900	Up	SELL	8	79¢	$7	0x8e7e9a…
07-12 22:55:47	btc updown 5m 1783896900	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x96c38f…
07-12 22:52:28	btc updown 5m 1783896600	Down	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x9801a7…
07-12 22:52:05	btc updown 5m 1783896600	Down	SELL	8	46¢	$4	0xf445aa…
07-12 22:50:25	btc updown 5m 1783896600	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x7a2791…
07-12 22:47:40	btc updown 5m 1783896300	Up	SELL	12	33¢	$4	0x25ea40…
07-12 22:46:47	btc updown 5m 1783896300	Up	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0xa0b4ec…
07-12 22:44:44	btc updown 5m 1783896000	Up	SELL	33	1¢	$0	0xcac56c…
07-12 22:44:28	btc updown 5m 1783896000	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xe4122b…
07-12 22:44:11	btc updown 5m 1783896000	Down	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0xe39414…
07-12 22:41:41	btc updown 5m 1783896000	Up	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x9a19b6…
07-12 22:41:16	btc updown 5m 1783896000	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x5bcc89…
07-12 22:40:47	btc updown 5m 1783896000	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x1c9232…
07-12 22:39:43	btc updown 5m 1783895700	Up	SELL	12	79¢	$10	0xcb7ad8…
07-12 22:38:13	btc updown 5m 1783895700	Up	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0xbf7019…
07-12 22:37:56	btc updown 5m 1783895700	Up	SELL	9	18¢	$2	0xd8b536…
07-12 22:36:49	btc updown 5m 1783895700	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x4be35e…
07-12 22:36:28	btc updown 5m 1783895700	Down	SELL	13	27¢	$4	0xe4a91f…
07-12 22:35:34	btc updown 5m 1783895700	Down	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0x9df07e…
07-12 22:34:40	btc updown 5m 1783895400	Down	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x6bbfdd…
07-12 22:33:43	btc updown 5m 1783895400	Down	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x18f12b…
07-12 22:33:19	btc updown 5m 1783895400	Up	SELL	7	46¢	$3	0x4e8adc…
07-12 22:31:20	btc updown 5m 1783895400	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xf1404b…
07-12 22:29:53	btc updown 5m 1783895100	Up	SELL	11	4¢	$0	0x4ba190…
07-12 22:29:38	btc updown 5m 1783895100	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x6635d7…
07-12 22:29:08	btc updown 5m 1783895100	Down	SELL	7	95¢	$6	0x8c0b66…
07-12 22:28:44	btc updown 5m 1783895100	Up	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x516789…