Puzzling-Degradation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$22

Unrealized P&L

-$17

Hit rate

99.4%

Resolved

Trades

243

lifetime

Volume

$10.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

$202

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 06-08 01:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

46% 50% +$7

Politics

28% — —

Crypto

22% 100% +$15

Tech

4% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		-145	$-117	82¢	$-118	$-1	06-08 00:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+294	$100	29¢	$84	$-16	06-08 01:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$403	222	222	+0	open	—	05-08 23:08
will ethereum reach 3600 in january 2026	3	$351	177	177	+0	open	—	01-31 04:15
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$309	216	216	+0	open	—	04-23 02:53
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	4	$309	331	0	+331	open	—	02-13 23:36
will bitcoin reach 77k on april 20	1	$293	295	0	+295	open	—	04-21 02:07
spx up or down on april 22 2026	2	$292	147	147	+0	open	—	04-22 22:03
Iran leadership change by April 30?	2	$291	148	148	+0	open	—	05-01 06:16
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$270	145	145	+0	open	—	04-22 17:38
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	2	$262	141	141	+0	open	—	04-27 02:02
will silver si hit high 130 by end of january 314 277 552 989	2	$254	129	129	+0	open	—	01-30 17:47
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$247	322	0	+322	open	—	01-31 04:40
bitcoin above 78k on april 18	1	$234	298	0	+298	open	—	04-17 21:19
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$231	141	141	+0	open	—	05-26 07:55
will bitcoin reach 76k on april 16	1	$200	203	0	+203	open	—	04-17 01:42
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	2	$198	100	100	+0	open	—	01-28 22:37
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9?	1	$195	197	0	+197	Yes	+$2	05-09 15:02
will grok 4pt20 not be released by january 31 2026	2	$193	100	100	+0	open	—	01-30 17:46
msft above 420 on january 30 2026	2	$146	150	0	+150	open	—	01-30 00:06
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 25?	2	$131	144	0	+144	open	—	04-26 00:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$126	71	71	+0	open	—	05-15 08:47
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$125	128	0	+128	open	—	01-24 02:42
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	1	$120	121	0	+121	open	—	04-23 03:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$117	0	145	-145	open	—	06-08 00:59
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	2	$112	74	74	+0	open	—	05-20 02:37
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	1	$110	155	0	+155	open	—	04-03 07:17
iran x oman strait of hormuz agreement by june 15	2	$106	60	60	+0	open	—	06-08 00:59
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	4	$105	60	60	+0	open	—	01-28 20:50
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	2	$104	54	54	+0	open	—	06-08 00:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$104	63	63	+0	open	—	04-22 18:46
will the us next strike iran on january 24 2026 et 848	2	$102	53	53	+0	open	—	01-24 21:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 01:03:24	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	46	88¢	$40	0xd5d787…
06-08 01:02:06	will germany send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xee52b6…
06-08 01:00:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xf37d4e…
06-08 01:00:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0x0b5262…
06-08 00:59:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	145	81¢	$117	0xb38565…
06-08 00:59:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	54	99¢	$54	0x93bf9b…
06-08 00:59:00	iran x oman strait of hormuz agreement by june 15	No	SELL	60	93¢	$56	0xa5c546…
05-28 07:37:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	9	94¢	$9	0xa099cc…
05-28 07:37:13	Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0xdf0828…
05-28 07:36:40	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xc3d031…
05-28 07:36:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x7d3053…
05-27 16:24:37	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	30	88¢	$26	0x1eae82…
05-27 16:24:18	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	SELL	14	83¢	$12	0xde51e7…
05-27 16:23:57	Will Salesforce (CRM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x5c5b48…
05-26 08:02:43	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x11a1ea…
05-26 08:00:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x903d0f…
05-26 08:00:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xd4094f…
05-26 07:59:48	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0xcfd6e1…
05-26 07:58:49	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x86e59d…
05-26 07:58:19	Will Salesforce (CRM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x97cd85…
05-26 07:55:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	48	98¢	$47	0x8bef04…
05-26 07:55:17	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	141	97¢	$136	0x518f05…
05-20 19:49:58	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0xefbc38…
05-20 17:37:21	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0x49e03b…
05-20 11:42:24	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	1¢	$2	0x47cbe7…
05-20 11:42:17	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	5¢	$3	0xfa3a24…
05-20 06:34:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	141	67¢	$95	0x6558d4…
05-20 06:33:21	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0xf9c042…
05-20 06:31:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	SELL	53	98¢	$52	0x3c1472…
05-20 02:54:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	43	93¢	$40	0x34b132…
05-20 02:53:17	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	57	96¢	$55	0xf3ca20…
05-20 02:37:11	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	SELL	74	91¢	$67	0xdf316f…
05-18 23:23:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	79	95¢	$75	0xf86d88…
05-15 09:17:19	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	BUY	74	60¢	$44	0x59bd09…
05-15 08:50:45	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Down	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x8d65b8…
05-15 08:49:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	48	83¢	$40	0x1435cf…
05-15 08:47:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	71	93¢	$66	0xbf16bd…
05-15 03:32:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	90	98¢	$88	0x83e5b3…
05-11 03:06:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	88	85¢	$75	0x663dd2…
05-11 01:37:21	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	25	95¢	$24	0x1f5964…
05-09 15:03:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	25	87¢	$22	0x1e348f…
05-09 15:02:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9?	Yes	BUY	197	99¢	$195	0x255d22…
05-08 23:08:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	222	98¢	$217	0xd9f9eb…
05-01 06:51:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x4a8771…
05-01 06:38:38	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 1?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x2dc4ed…
05-01 06:30:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	55	82¢	$45	0x1a343f…
05-01 06:27:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 1?	Yes	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0x9162d8…
05-01 06:25:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	71	85¢	$60	0x46732b…
05-01 06:16:14	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	148	100¢	$148	0x0adc78…
04-27 19:06:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	79	78¢	$61	0xacff7c…
04-27 19:06:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 27?	No	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x9ac313…
04-27 19:05:18	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x447be9…
04-27 02:05:00	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 26?	No	BUY	97	88¢	$85	0xf015c5…
04-27 02:04:04	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x165b04…
04-27 02:03:46	Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April?	No	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x8ebe22…
04-27 02:02:26	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	SELL	141	98¢	$137	0x54821c…
04-26 06:25:12	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	148	97¢	$143	0xb49402…
04-26 00:16:56	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 25?	No	BUY	99	91¢	$90	0x729942…
04-26 00:16:48	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 25?	No	BUY	45	90¢	$41	0x0ad156…
04-26 00:05:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	144	87¢	$125	0x0b5fb4…
04-26 00:05:20	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x84890b…
04-23 03:02:34	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0xdf8dcc…
04-23 03:00:52	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	No	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0xf604b3…
04-23 03:00:22	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x5b86e0…
04-23 02:59:52	wti closes above 85 on april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0x765591…
04-23 02:53:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	SELL	216	85¢	$184	0x659929…
04-23 02:52:14	btc updown 5m 1776912600	Down	BUY	35	4¢	$1	0x15015f…
04-22 22:05:50	bitcoin above 78k on april 23	Yes	BUY	30	72¢	$21	0x4c4824…
04-22 22:04:46	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	141	89¢	$125	0x486811…
04-22 22:03:34	spx up or down on april 22 2026	Up	SELL	147	100¢	$146	0x7eb586…
04-22 19:14:22	will bitcoin reach 81k on april 22	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0x863c56…
04-22 19:13:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0xb608a2…
04-22 18:46:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	63	93¢	$59	0xabfa69…
04-22 17:38:50	spx up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	147	99¢	$145	0x9c86dc…
04-22 17:38:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	145	100¢	$145	0xc1e110…
04-21 08:33:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	63	71¢	$45	0x57405f…
04-21 08:31:38	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	145	86¢	$125	0x20048d…
04-21 08:31:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	216	58¢	$125	0x9e8e3a…
04-21 02:07:40	will bitcoin reach 77k on april 20	No	BUY	295	99¢	$293	0x1e2f9d…
04-17 21:19:30	bitcoin above 78k on april 18	No	BUY	298	79¢	$234	0x8e644d…
04-17 01:42:02	will bitcoin reach 76k on april 16	No	BUY	203	99¢	$200	0xb16fb5…
04-04 07:33:27	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	31	90¢	$28	0xa4ac57…
04-04 05:31:41	lal mal rea 2026 04 04 rea	Yes	BUY	7	64¢	$5	0xad03b4…
04-03 07:17:07	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	155	71¢	$110	0x7d2cf3…
03-07 15:00:07	hpe quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 09 2026 0pt59	Yes	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x27f3d6…
03-07 14:59:39	fdx quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 19 2026 4pt08	Yes	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x9e3279…
03-07 14:59:35	plby quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 12 2026 0pt01	Yes	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x7b9171…
03-07 14:59:31	mu quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 18 2026 8pt58	Yes	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0xe5d848…
03-01 15:13:55	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	500	9¢	$45	0x82a25d…
02-20 17:11:08	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x252f27…
02-20 17:06:10	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xda60e8…
02-19 18:57:20	googl close above 300 on february 19 2026	Yes	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x4602d9…
02-19 18:56:52	bynd quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 25 2026 neg0pt08	No	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x562ab8…
02-19 18:56:08	spx up or down on february 19 2026	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xc49825…
02-19 18:55:50	tsla close above 400 on february 19 2026	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc23655…
02-17 15:34:23	will the price of bitcoin be between 64000 66000 on february 17	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0x0227cb…
02-17 15:31:09	panw quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 12 2026 0pt94	Yes	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0xb83865…
02-17 15:29:41	spx up or down on february 17 2026	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x62bda5…
02-16 16:50:13	sun quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 17 2026 1pt62	No	BUY	4	86¢	$3	0x2e3728…
02-16 16:50:01	lh quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 17 2026 3pt94	Yes	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0x06c457…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	116	$23.3M	32,741	06-09 22:12
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	113	$27.3K	4,862	06-09 11:14
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	111	$810.8K	14,376	06-09 16:19
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	91	$243.2K	19,232	06-01 00:43
(anonymous) 0x945a…a48c	90	$29.8K	10,786	06-09 23:20
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	80	$83.0K	7,834	03-28 06:14
Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389	78	$153.6K	16,872	06-09 16:55
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	75	$121.9K	770	06-09 08:04