Puzzling-Degradation — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

-$11

Unrealized P&L

+$66

Hit rate

68.0%

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

1,346 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$117

$16.7K lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$15

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 11-01 02:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 120 days

Categories

Other

39% 67% -$580

Crypto

29% 56% +$182

Politics

25% 67% -$158

Tech

6% 88% +$38

Sports

0% 100% +$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 58 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	-354	-$27	3¢	$-9	+$18	05-01 06:16
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	-204	-$22	1¢	$-3	+$20	07-19 23:35
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+296	$3	0¢	$1	-$2	10-29 07:05
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	-92	-$35	1¢	$-1	+$34	05-01 06:48
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	-25	-$4	3¢	$-1	+$3	05-01 06:17
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+12	$2	3¢	$0	-$2	09-28 10:38
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+21	$6	1¢	$0	-$5	09-30 16:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$403	222	222	+0	No	+$31	05-08 23:08
will ethereum reach 3600 in january 2026	3	$351	177	177	+0	No	+$2	01-31 04:15
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$309	216	216	+0	No	+$59	04-23 02:53
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	4	$309	331	0	+331	Yes	+$23	02-13 23:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$307	403	403	+0	No	+$7	07-12 22:26
will bitcoin reach 77k on april 20	1	$293	295	0	+295	No	+$1	04-21 02:07
spx up or down on april 22 2026	2	$292	147	147	+0	Up	+$2	04-22 22:03
Iran leadership change by April 30?	2	$291	148	148	+0	No	+$4	05-01 06:16
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$270	145	145	+0	No	+$20	04-22 17:38
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	2	$262	141	141	+0	No	+$12	04-27 02:02
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	4	$256	135	135	+0	Yes	+$6	05-20 06:31
will silver si hit high 130 by end of january 314 277 552 989	2	$254	129	129	+0	No	+$4	01-30 17:47
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$247	322	0	+322	No	-$247	01-31 04:40
bitcoin above 78k on april 18	1	$234	298	0	+298	No	+$64	04-17 21:19
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$231	141	141	+0	Yes	+$41	05-26 07:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$217	145	145	+0	Yes	+$17	06-08 00:59
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	3	$204	114	114	+0	No	+$4	06-22 22:09
will bitcoin reach 76k on april 16	1	$200	203	0	+203	No	+$3	04-17 01:42
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	2	$198	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	01-28 22:37
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9?	1	$195	197	0	+197	Yes	+$2	05-09 15:02
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	4	$195	3,132	0	+3,132	No	-$195	06-19 22:48
will grok 4pt20 not be released by january 31 2026	2	$193	100	100	+0	Yes	+$4	01-30 17:46
msft above 420 on january 30 2026	2	$146	150	0	+150	Yes	+$4	01-30 00:06
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 25?	2	$131	144	0	+144	No	+$13	04-26 00:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$126	71	71	+0	No	+$6	05-15 08:47
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$125	128	0	+128	Yes	+$3	01-24 02:42
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	1	$120	121	0	+121	No	+$1	04-23 03:00
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	2	$112	74	74	+0	No	+$23	05-20 02:37
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$111	58	58	+0	No	+$1	06-22 22:11
Gold Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	7	$110	225	192	+33	Down	+$27	10-29 07:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 02:49:27	Will "Wild Horse Nine" score at least 87 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	600	5¢	$27	0x1f850e…
11-01 02:48:16	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0x92f9c0…
11-01 02:43:06	Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	7¢	$1	0x29aba4…
11-01 02:40:18	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	126	10¢	$13	0x388af8…
11-01 01:35:46	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0xa3e215…
10-29 07:41:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xa0aabd…
10-29 07:40:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0xbc58b3…
10-29 07:39:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x40fb22…
10-29 07:39:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x0b80f2…
10-29 07:38:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x7f9a4c…
10-29 07:38:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x18538a…
10-29 07:38:07	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%?	Yes	SELL	1	24¢	$0	0x0efb29…
10-29 07:26:38	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in October?	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0x174251…
10-29 07:21:43	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	No	BUY	166	6¢	$10	0x4f96d3…
10-29 07:18:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	SELL	158	7¢	$11	0x1bec02…
10-29 07:18:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	158	26¢	$41	0x0a1cf4…
10-29 07:16:35	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	103	5¢	$5	0xbb540a…
10-29 07:14:31	Gold Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x6480ac…
10-29 07:13:38	Gold Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x7ba417…
10-29 07:13:22	Gold Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	26	35¢	$9	0x402681…
10-29 07:13:01	Gold Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x4613cf…
10-29 07:12:32	Gold Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	SELL	165	36¢	$59	0xd36682…
10-29 07:11:02	Gold Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	158	16¢	$25	0x943379…
10-29 07:10:44	Gold Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xf682c6…
10-29 07:09:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x968dc8…
10-29 07:08:55	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0xfb105e…
10-29 07:05:19	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	154	1¢	$2	0xf9e95a…
10-29 07:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	SELL	54	60¢	$32	0xd45aaa…
10-29 07:04:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	54	18¢	$10	0xd5da01…
10-29 07:03:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0x3c3272…
10-29 07:02:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x1bc1e5…
10-29 07:02:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	6	60¢	$4	0xe8480d…
10-29 07:01:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x82b893…
10-29 07:01:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0xc4568a…
10-29 07:01:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x0b8fc8…
10-29 06:53:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0xc243ee…
10-29 06:53:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xe646b3…
10-29 06:53:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0x8bc2b3…
10-29 06:52:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x74cee3…
10-29 06:52:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	SELL	3	86¢	$3	0x81ba1d…
10-29 06:51:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x5f8087…
10-29 06:48:34	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x8522f7…
10-29 06:46:49	Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x71db90…
10-29 06:43:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	11	74¢	$8	0x19529b…
10-29 06:42:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xedce3c…
10-29 06:42:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x526665…
10-29 06:39:10	Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x8744e6…
10-29 06:38:34	Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x7a9a0e…
10-29 06:37:50	will 170 189 ships transit the bab el mandeb strait between november 2 november 8	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x9afd59…
10-29 06:37:29	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%?	Yes	BUY	36	30¢	$11	0x8e0713…
10-29 06:35:11	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0xe0e188…
10-29 06:34:25	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	213	5¢	$10	0xa6e32c…
10-29 06:34:20	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	126	8¢	$10	0xed2c79…
10-29 06:34:14	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x599d9d…
10-29 06:32:29	Will "Wild Horse Nine" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	75	40¢	$30	0x182577…
10-29 06:22:31	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%?	Yes	BUY	26	29¢	$8	0xe4b51f…
10-29 06:08:29	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0x40a8f9…
10-29 06:06:32	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x53797c…
10-29 05:59:40	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?	Yes	BUY	155	17¢	$27	0x31cf5b…
10-29 05:57:52	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	44¢	$28	0xc06ecb…
10-29 05:57:41	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%?	Yes	BUY	71	22¢	$15	0x6080f4…
10-29 00:17:47	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $345 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0x86eaca…
10-28 08:34:56	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	43¢	$22	0x7578e1…
10-28 08:33:28	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	58¢	$13	0x7342a7…
10-28 08:31:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xeafdb1…
10-27 03:42:29	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x87c315…
10-27 03:08:18	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	8¢	$1	0xe07ac1…
10-26 21:54:48	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on October 26?	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xa20410…
10-26 21:54:21	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $345 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x3eae82…
10-26 21:12:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x9eebd2…
10-26 21:05:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x0110d5…
10-26 21:03:02	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	91¢	$21	0x230c94…
10-26 03:17:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x87c577…
10-26 03:13:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xdd29b3…
10-26 03:09:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x7f48a7…
10-26 03:09:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xefd61c…
10-26 03:06:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 27?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0x03ac97…
10-26 03:05:44	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	65¢	$2	0x9d4828…
10-24 18:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0xbac564…
10-24 05:51:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	76¢	$1	0x0e0557…
10-24 05:03:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x60e91e…
10-24 05:00:05	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0xc85508…
10-24 04:58:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0xa7d741…
10-24 04:55:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x3b58a4…
10-24 04:52:59	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	11¢	$4	0x0f9740…
10-24 04:46:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xa7aacd…
10-24 04:46:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x1da9f2…
10-24 04:45:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xa50259…
10-24 04:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xf766dc…
10-24 04:44:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x37f49d…
10-24 04:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0x640d8c…
10-24 04:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x9e2a16…
10-24 03:48:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xe24d45…
10-24 03:45:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x2a1d30…
10-24 03:44:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xb8e0c6…
10-24 03:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x4c6ad0…
10-24 03:40:05	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	70¢	$16	0xde334b…
10-24 03:39:23	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x11de3a…
10-24 03:38:41	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x762619…
10-24 03:37:05	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x701b97…