Staid-Chinchilla — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

34.9%

Resolved

Trades

280

lifetime

Volume

$5.39K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 05-12 14:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 75% +$13

Politics

20% 0% $-37

Other

15% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 102k on january 21	2	$599	300	300	+0	open	—	01-20 14:28
bitcoin above 76k on february 6	2	$599	300	300	+0	open	—	02-06 15:54
bitcoin above 78k on february 6	2	$519	260	260	+0	open	—	02-06 08:20
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	7	$403	214	214	+0	open	—	02-03 23:45
will trump meet with machado by january 16 159	11	$306	242	114	+128	open	—	01-15 18:25
ethereum above 2700 on february 8	2	$250	200	50	+150	open	—	02-07 13:38
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	15	$242	544	239	+305	open	—	04-29 13:55
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	2	$232	121	121	+0	open	—	02-25 17:29
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$230	116	116	+0	open	—	01-30 13:09
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	7	$215	0	220	-220	open	—	01-28 08:13
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	10	$208	218	166	+52	open	—	03-05 18:23
will the government shutdown last 3 days or more	9	$162	130	130	+0	open	—	01-29 06:24
will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	8	$156	178	178	-0	open	—	01-29 05:08
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	11	$146	137	129	+8	open	—	04-28 02:07
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more 842	5	$103	93	93	+0	open	—	01-29 06:24
will the price of bitcoin be between 86000 88000 on february 7	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	02-07 04:34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	3	$90	100	140	-40	Yes	$-37	03-23 10:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?	5	$70	104	7	+97	open	—	01-20 05:04
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?	5	$57	110	0	+110	open	—	01-20 14:28
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	02-25 11:55
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	1	$50	0	50	-50	open	—	01-06 05:01
megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	2	$48	0	50	-50	open	—	03-17 04:46
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	5	$48	90	0	+90	open	—	01-20 14:36
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	3	$43	77	0	+77	open	—	03-18 11:38
btc updown 5m 1773834300	32	$42	30	29	+0	open	—	03-18 11:49
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch?	2	$28	34	0	+34	No	+$6	03-18 11:54
btc updown 5m 1773835800	13	$26	18	17	+0	open	—	03-18 12:14
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	3	$22	120	190	-70	open	—	03-07 12:31
btc updown 5m 1773834600	5	$22	18	18	+0	open	—	03-18 11:54
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31, 2026?	5	$21	30	0	+30	open	—	01-25 11:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-12 14:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	SELL	4	97¢	$3	0x1d01b0…
05-12 14:32:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x85b2eb…
05-12 14:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xdad1ac…
05-12 14:31:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xf11ea8…
04-29 13:55:50	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xf375a3…
04-29 12:16:38	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	47	43¢	$20	0x70b173…
04-29 01:00:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	4	82¢	$3	0x623e7e…
04-29 00:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xe56917…
04-29 00:57:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0xc4a81c…
04-29 00:57:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x46616c…
04-29 00:57:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	4	84¢	$4	0x08760c…
04-29 00:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x5c1070…
04-29 00:55:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x9d6760…
04-29 00:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xba9b9b…
04-29 00:50:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x268a8e…
04-29 00:50:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x718203…
04-29 00:39:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0xe4982a…
04-29 00:37:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xe06f3c…
04-29 00:36:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x6c6d06…
04-29 00:36:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xcaaafb…
04-29 00:36:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xf0bc37…
04-28 02:07:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x204d27…
04-28 02:07:06	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6a6986…
04-28 02:07:02	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x6be345…
04-27 00:32:14	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	SELL	239	41¢	$98	0x3c3493…
04-14 22:40:08	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0xd560f8…
04-12 01:19:57	btc updown 5m 1775956500	Up	SELL	2	24¢	$0	0x359cff…
04-12 01:17:21	btc updown 5m 1775956500	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x489f7d…
04-12 01:14:35	btc updown 5m 1775956200	Down	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0xb5a9a0…
04-12 01:14:17	btc updown 5m 1775956200	Down	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0xcf85cc…
04-12 01:11:51	btc updown 5m 1775956200	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x361c99…
04-12 01:10:47	btc updown 5m 1775956200	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x6d75c9…
04-12 01:08:17	btc updown 5m 1775955900	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x781049…
04-12 01:08:11	btc updown 5m 1775955900	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x8caac9…
04-12 00:43:55	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xb01557…
04-09 14:49:47	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x3d08bd…
04-09 13:10:55	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x016e86…
04-09 03:06:35	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	129	61¢	$79	0x49ccc7…
04-09 02:17:15	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0xdf31df…
04-06 00:09:53	btc updown 5m 1775433900	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xc4502b…
04-06 00:09:37	btc updown 5m 1775433900	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x715cb7…
04-06 00:09:19	btc updown 5m 1775433900	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xebcb48…
04-06 00:08:41	btc updown 5m 1775433900	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xe9c7bf…
04-06 00:08:29	btc updown 5m 1775433900	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x36552b…
04-05 23:58:33	btc updown 5m 1775433300	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x033fc4…
04-05 23:58:19	btc updown 5m 1775433300	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x2ea288…
04-05 23:58:13	btc updown 5m 1775433300	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xbc0634…
04-05 23:58:03	btc updown 5m 1775433300	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x0107e0…
04-05 23:57:49	btc updown 5m 1775433300	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xf4bfd8…
04-05 23:54:37	btc updown 5m 1775433000	Down	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0xae2cd7…
04-05 23:54:37	btc updown 5m 1775433000	Down	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x55490e…
04-05 23:54:35	btc updown 5m 1775433000	Down	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xd03305…
04-05 23:54:35	btc updown 5m 1775433000	Down	BUY	0	6¢	$0	0x8057b8…
04-05 23:51:41	btc updown 5m 1775433000	Down	BUY	4	14¢	$1	0xcbd5dd…
04-05 23:51:41	btc updown 5m 1775433000	Down	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x26a871…
04-05 23:51:07	btc updown 5m 1775433000	Down	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x613fbe…
04-05 23:51:01	btc updown 5m 1775433000	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x3a0688…
04-05 23:50:59	btc updown 5m 1775433000	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xb36eb3…
04-05 23:49:27	btc updown 5m 1775432700	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x354205…
04-05 23:48:57	btc updown 5m 1775432700	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xde397b…
04-05 23:48:37	btc updown 5m 1775432700	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xcf8379…
04-04 07:55:21	Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x711d6a…
04-04 07:49:41	Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xa154da…
04-04 07:10:43	Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	27	59¢	$16	0x5a0195…
04-04 07:10:05	Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x1846df…
03-31 01:55:11	Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	25	10¢	$2	0x5aa384…
03-30 04:52:42	btc updown 5m 1774846200	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xffa04e…
03-30 04:52:24	btc updown 5m 1774846200	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xecd1a1…
03-30 04:52:10	btc updown 5m 1774846200	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x6f0a2e…
03-30 04:51:56	btc updown 5m 1774846200	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xea0641…
03-30 04:51:50	btc updown 5m 1774846200	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xddf059…
03-30 04:33:58	btc updown 5m 1774845000	Down	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0xaccf69…
03-30 04:31:38	btc updown 5m 1774845000	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf7655d…
03-30 04:31:24	btc updown 5m 1774845000	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xa92a66…
03-30 03:14:54	btc updown 5m 1774840200	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x7764f6…
03-30 03:14:46	btc updown 5m 1774840200	Down	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x4a1e29…
03-30 03:14:40	btc updown 5m 1774840200	Down	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x351cd4…
03-30 03:12:38	btc updown 5m 1774840200	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x27f89d…
03-30 03:12:26	btc updown 5m 1774840200	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x26f5b6…
03-30 03:12:20	btc updown 5m 1774840200	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xbdbb3b…
03-30 03:11:20	btc updown 5m 1774840200	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xaaf856…
03-30 03:11:16	btc updown 5m 1774840200	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xa52c6d…
03-29 05:00:02	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xe3590b…
03-29 04:59:56	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x3f9d87…
03-29 04:57:34	USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xd3a613…
03-24 00:55:03	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	No	BUY	70	14¢	$10	0x549948…
03-24 00:54:53	Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x57045f…
03-24 00:54:33	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	No	BUY	49	14¢	$7	0x23a210…
03-23 15:44:25	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x9c3c6d…
03-23 15:36:27	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x917d8e…
03-23 15:34:41	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x5265be…
03-23 15:34:19	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xd2a067…
03-23 15:33:49	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xf5167e…
03-23 15:33:37	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x2a59e0…
03-23 15:33:23	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xb9bfbe…
03-23 15:33:03	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x995fd8…
03-23 10:52:47	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf6b004…
03-23 10:52:27	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x6d4e44…
03-23 10:52:15	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x90f8c1…
03-23 10:52:11	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x8f659a…