Sweet-Retrospect — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$4

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

86.6%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

296 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$15.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

$52

Open exposure

$159

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-19 12:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 71 days

Categories

Politics

87% 84% -$1,257

Other

13% 100% +$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+100	$94	97¢	$97	+$2	09-02 15:44
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+35	$32	94¢	$33	+$1	10-19 12:18
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+43	$40	60¢	$25	-$15	09-17 14:38
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-116	-$5	2¢	$-2	+$2	09-22 10:50
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	+11	$6	18¢	$2	-$4	09-17 14:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	16	$1.5K	774	774	+0	No	+$23	02-19 11:48
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	17	$762	1,304	1,504	-200	Yes	-$748	03-02 07:58
hezbollah strike on israel by january 31 226	15	$748	838	0	+838	No	+$89	01-20 21:29
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	6	$690	167	536	-370	No	-$2	01-20 21:47
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	3	$614	318	318	+0	No	+$19	03-17 01:07
hezbollah strike on israel by february 28	19	$608	659	0	+659	No	+$51	03-01 01:24
will iran strike israel on march 10	2	$604	305	305	+0	Yes	+$4	03-14 11:45
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	3	$458	300	200	+100	open	—	09-02 15:44
houthi strike on israel by february 28	9	$387	432	0	+432	No	+$45	02-19 11:51
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	6	$324	164	164	+0	No	+$5	04-03 08:12
will israel strike gaza on march 9 2026	2	$316	325	0	+325	No	+$8	03-12 23:46
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$303	318	318	+0	Yes	-$297	04-08 00:19
Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	11	$271	234	42	+192	Yes	+$4	07-16 12:06
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	3	$262	238	26	+212	Yes	+$2	08-14 06:32
will israel strike lebanon on march 1 2026	2	$253	255	0	+255	No	+$1	03-03 11:47
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	6	$247	265	0	+265	No	+$18	03-28 04:01
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	3	$246	254	0	+254	No	+$8	03-17 07:17
will israel strike gaza on march 6 2026	2	$220	222	0	+222	No	+$2	03-09 18:18
hezbollah strike on israel by march 7	7	$211	407	0	+407	Yes	-$211	03-01 13:39
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	4	$197	201	0	+201	Yes	+$4	05-26 02:44
will israel strike gaza on march 4 2026	2	$191	193	0	+193	No	+$2	03-05 13:41
will yoweri kaguta museveni win the 2026 ugandan presidential election	4	$183	107	79	+28	Yes	+$2	01-16 19:52
Will Ras Baraka win the Newark mayoral election?	1	$180	183	0	+183	Yes	+$3	05-10 09:03
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	3	$164	83	83	+0	No	+$2	03-17 01:10
will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	1	$155	155	0	+155	Yes	+$0	03-05 00:55
will israel strike lebanon on march 8 2026	1	$150	152	0	+152	Yes	+$2	03-07 19:19
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$150	153	0	+153	Yes	-$150	04-03 08:12
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	3	$144	138	14	+124	No	-$2	04-03 00:23
will us or israel strike iran on march 8 2026	1	$143	144	0	+144	Yes	+$0	03-07 19:20
will israel strike gaza on february 28 2026	3	$140	141	0	+141	No	+$1	03-01 21:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 12:18:33	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	35	91¢	$32	0x840f6e…
09-22 10:50:49	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	116	4¢	$5	0x8e0540…
09-17 14:43:06	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0x60c1c3…
09-17 14:42:24	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x5e372f…
09-17 14:38:42	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	43	94¢	$40	0xf5041e…
09-08 20:09:10	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	82	97¢	$80	0x8ce4a5…
09-03 08:04:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	92¢	$64	0xfedba4…
09-02 15:44:19	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x771bb6…
09-02 13:20:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	71	98¢	$70	0xf1f0d5…
08-28 09:57:25	Will the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum pass?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd65d05…
08-20 17:01:28	Will the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum pass?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf3a489…
08-20 09:36:00	Will the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum pass?	Yes	BUY	17	98¢	$16	0xad7008…
08-19 05:45:31	Will the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum pass?	Yes	BUY	17	98¢	$16	0x618181…
08-19 05:45:21	Will the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum pass?	Yes	BUY	70	98¢	$69	0x25b9d2…
08-19 05:44:37	Will the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum pass?	Yes	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x8b43ee…
08-19 04:36:51	Will the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum pass?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdfe149…
08-19 03:32:28	Will the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum pass?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x90fdc6…
08-14 06:32:25	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x918c58…
08-13 20:00:07	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xdb09d8…
08-02 10:34:33	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	212	99¢	$210	0x39d4e4…
07-25 15:31:24	Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xab03b6…
07-25 15:30:24	Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?	Yes	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x83f477…
07-16 12:06:38	Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa8ab8e…
07-15 05:05:35	Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x8a6bd9…
07-15 05:05:22	Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xec4a3f…
07-15 05:04:55	Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xcdec56…
07-08 13:25:52	Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x299bd5…
07-06 10:55:20	Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Yes	BUY	74	98¢	$73	0x1017a7…
07-03 06:11:01	Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb96984…
07-01 07:47:43	Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Yes	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x0b6042…
06-30 12:19:41	Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Yes	BUY	88	98¢	$86	0x0dbf2a…
06-28 08:46:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0x1134fd…
06-22 17:46:59	Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Yes	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x23024a…
06-21 14:16:43	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xe48be3…
06-12 17:32:15	Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?	Yes	SELL	40	65¢	$26	0xe1c11f…
05-31 08:23:58	Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	136	92¢	$125	0x318af8…
05-31 08:23:16	Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?	Yes	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0x17529a…
05-31 08:12:48	Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xbec108…
05-26 02:44:47	Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x785164…
05-24 11:06:02	Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x695987…
05-24 11:05:08	Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xee1e62…
05-24 11:01:34	Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	BUY	62	97¢	$60	0xb7a6e1…
05-24 11:00:40	Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x88bc45…
05-14 18:02:52	Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win the Andalusia regional election?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x8a9266…
05-14 15:44:49	Will Partido Popular (PP) win the Andalusia regional election?	Yes	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0x5d2322…
05-14 09:41:40	Will Partido Popular (PP) win the Andalusia regional election?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x54d063…
05-10 09:03:18	Will Ras Baraka win the Newark mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	183	99¢	$180	0x03837e…
05-08 20:26:00	Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x689ceb…
05-07 10:18:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xd5275f…
05-01 10:22:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x535042…
04-30 01:59:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xc0fecc…
04-28 15:52:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0x6b78db…
04-12 20:31:23	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	138	99¢	$137	0xa894f1…
04-08 00:19:23	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0xc3358e…
04-08 00:19:19	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	318	1¢	$3	0x3561d8…
04-06 11:29:17	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	127	100¢	$126	0x61303c…
04-05 04:41:49	Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026?	No	BUY	75	99¢	$74	0x56663d…
04-04 14:23:05	Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x5cbdd2…
04-04 11:37:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	116	75¢	$87	0xfe85e4…
04-04 11:34:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	53	98¢	$52	0xd88ce9…
04-04 11:33:43	will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x66968c…
04-04 10:53:03	Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x96e044…
04-04 10:52:33	Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x997d6e…
04-03 08:14:11	Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x8778e7…
04-03 08:13:33	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x834a64…
04-03 08:13:09	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xc16493…
04-03 08:12:55	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xc696e8…
04-03 08:12:25	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	SELL	164	100¢	$164	0xeac9a4…
04-03 00:23:59	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	BUY	124	99¢	$123	0x41607a…
04-02 13:03:25	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x97c8a6…
04-02 13:00:49	will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xc58a90…
04-02 12:55:05	Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1d985f…
04-02 01:35:19	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xc162a7…
04-02 01:34:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x292d3b…
04-01 15:00:37	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x5f5085…
04-01 11:59:17	houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	No	BUY	21	71¢	$15	0x4af29b…
04-01 11:42:03	will romuald wadagni be the next president of benin	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x56b2e7…
04-01 10:59:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0x1188dd…
03-30 20:05:31	Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x86d2ba…
03-30 15:24:25	Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x51ba25…
03-28 22:26:32	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0x34c00f…
03-28 21:48:04	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x5faa71…
03-28 07:54:49	will catherine trautmann be the next mayor of strasbourg	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x9e2db3…
03-28 04:32:19	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	SELL	14	66¢	$9	0xfd1cd7…
03-28 04:01:19	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	84	97¢	$81	0x01c947…
03-28 03:56:59	Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe72335…
03-27 20:33:43	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x21d7e3…
03-27 20:33:29	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0x5537ad…
03-26 20:53:19	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x51745b…
03-25 18:53:27	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	36	85¢	$31	0x5659b1…
03-24 12:07:03	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	35	88¢	$31	0x8b4dd1…
03-23 07:09:19	military action against iran ends by march 21 2026	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x1a49b4…
03-21 19:48:15	military action against iran ends by march 20 2026	No	BUY	31	100¢	$30	0x52fe52…
03-20 00:20:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x611914…
03-19 18:19:55	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x23ebc3…
03-19 18:19:37	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0xf90a3b…
03-19 16:02:25	will hamas agree to disarm by march 31 966	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x361fb8…
03-19 06:51:21	will hamas agree to disarm by march 31 966	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb8f37f…
03-19 05:22:25	will hamas agree to disarm by march 31 966	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xe64925…
03-19 03:45:33	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	BUY	14	85¢	$12	0x6b672f…