Nifty-Selling — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$554

Unrealized P&L

+$90

Hit rate

58.8%

Resolved (90d)

4,199

Trades (90d)

4,519

5,462 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$16.4K

$46.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$13

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-31 20:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 166 days

Categories

Politics

44% 28% +$1,566

Crypto

44% 51% -$575

Other

10% 27% +$378

Sports

1% 26% -$136

Tech

1% 50% -$89

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 177 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes		-1,000	-$103	1¢	$-13	+$90	05-01 09:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	11	$5.7K	4,000	4,000	+0	Yes	+$1,189	04-05 11:51
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	9	$1.6K	3,162	3,162	+0	Yes	+$92	04-07 23:05
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	10	$1.1K	863	863	+0	No	+$19	03-04 21:37
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	3	$979	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$879	04-07 23:10
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	5	$963	1,800	1,800	+0	No	+$575	09-12 11:38
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	23	$943	1,500	1,500	-0	Yes	+$44	03-19 15:43
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$864	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$618	02-28 16:46
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	7	$831	714	690	+24	No	+$82	04-09 17:57
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	16	$784	2,450	2,450	+0	No	-$270	05-31 01:52
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	14	$730	150,004	0	+150,004	No	-$730	06-03 05:16
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	3	$548	500	500	+0	Yes	-$111	04-11 01:20
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	3	$540	1,000	500	+500	No	-$310	04-12 18:32
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	4	$536	2,400	2,400	+0	open	—	10-20 08:11
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	7	$535	1,200	2,200	-1,000	No	+$77	06-03 01:31
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	11	$514	25,800	800	+25,000	No	-$277	05-26 08:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	7	$475	1,200	800	+400	No	-$43	05-07 20:59
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$475	500	500	+0	open	—	06-03 01:31
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$468	400	400	+0	No	+$28	04-07 23:51
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	5	$465	2,000	2,000	+0	No	-$105	04-01 14:03
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	25	$437	473	330	+143	No	-$13	05-15 13:28
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	4	$421	319	319	+0	No	-$12	04-08 14:09
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	4	$385	992	492	+500	No	-$100	04-09 17:33
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	2	$345	200	200	+0	No	+$13	04-12 10:01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$320	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$60	04-07 22:39
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by end of march 122 549 218 531 991 459	15	$320	800	800	+0	No	+$24	03-23 12:00
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	8	$309	1,500	1,500	+0	No	-$112	03-31 15:06
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	4	$269	300	300	+0	Yes	+$18	03-04 11:56
will the us invade iran by march 31	5	$258	800	800	+0	No	+$33	03-14 13:06
will trump cut off trade with spain	10	$250	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$10	03-04 08:41
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$247	600	600	+0	No	+$49	04-12 10:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 20:04:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x93b834…
10-31 19:49:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xbd488d…
10-31 19:44:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x778197…
10-31 19:31:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x508f47…
10-31 19:26:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x7b4c9b…
10-31 18:41:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0xc67f5a…
10-31 18:04:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x2ff0b9…
10-31 16:49:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0x0a3e6e…
10-31 16:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x966c60…
10-31 16:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb1cfb0…
10-31 14:44:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x7dc97c…
10-31 12:34:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x0ab428…
10-31 12:24:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x99ec8b…
10-31 11:29:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xa679e6…
10-31 11:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x09d44c…
10-31 10:59:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xcbabd6…
10-31 10:29:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	44¢	$2	0xa87736…
10-31 10:09:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xdc44b1…
10-31 10:09:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	43¢	$2	0x2e8f1f…
10-31 09:49:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x7f1241…
10-31 09:04:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-31 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x162f8b…
10-31 09:04:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-31 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xfbeec1…
10-31 08:09:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xd4c920…
10-31 08:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x2d2a6f…
10-31 08:04:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x548668…
10-31 07:29:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x0ef67b…
10-31 06:44:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x405972…
10-31 06:19:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x96156c…
10-31 05:54:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xc2a37c…
10-31 05:24:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xc8e965…
10-31 05:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x9a57cf…
10-31 05:16:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x60618a…
10-31 03:39:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x0ad833…
10-31 03:24:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xce30b6…
10-31 02:34:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xf39d64…
10-31 02:34:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xc82476…
10-31 02:04:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x8a6d1f…
10-31 00:49:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xf42081…
10-30 23:49:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x49e28b…
10-30 23:24:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x049058…
10-30 23:14:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xbc540f…
10-30 22:24:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x999210…
10-30 22:19:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xac6681…
10-30 22:19:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xd34633…
10-30 22:14:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb74d9d…
10-30 21:55:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x495bf2…
10-30 20:19:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x93f04b…
10-30 19:14:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x480b4c…
10-30 18:49:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x90aaa9…
10-30 18:44:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xc227da…
10-30 18:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3c3980…
10-30 17:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xd381aa…
10-30 16:34:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xeca067…
10-30 16:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x824c86…
10-30 16:24:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x9f8dbc…
10-30 16:24:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x90ee16…
10-30 16:19:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x2f87c1…
10-30 16:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa8a766…
10-30 16:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x231bfc…
10-30 15:19:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xfe06b9…
10-30 14:39:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x53c5bf…
10-30 12:25:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xf3656a…
10-30 11:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xc95d7b…
10-30 11:10:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x04364c…
10-30 10:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x18a2b2…
10-30 10:14:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x3256c1…
10-30 10:04:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x510ce2…
10-30 10:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xafb07b…
10-30 09:09:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xe22950…
10-30 08:34:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x527865…
10-30 08:19:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x2056f3…
10-30 08:00:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xe13f4a…
10-30 07:44:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x447a7d…
10-30 07:21:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x364ae2…
10-30 07:19:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x094fa9…
10-30 06:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x0428f6…
10-30 06:14:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	43¢	$2	0x95e1fc…
10-30 05:45:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xf717a3…
10-30 02:20:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x3ee368…
10-30 01:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x8e0b8d…
10-30 01:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x7abc5e…
10-30 00:45:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x34c774…
10-29 23:14:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xe23ece…
10-29 23:04:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xa21735…
10-29 20:34:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xf35f4a…
10-29 19:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xb1b08e…
10-29 19:14:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xd77a9d…
10-29 17:09:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x825725…
10-29 16:49:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x7724e0…
10-29 16:30:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xa30c70…
10-29 16:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x1459a6…
10-29 13:29:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3cecfc…
10-29 11:24:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x2bb16c…
10-29 10:34:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x387e6c…
10-29 10:29:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x84ac6e…
10-29 10:24:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xf0f8a0…
10-29 10:04:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xf2c822…
10-29 10:04:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x0c2758…
10-29 09:54:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3356a4…
10-29 09:49:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x7578d8…