Expert-Margin — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

+$64

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

95.7%

Resolved (24h)

157

Trades (24h)

552

34,886 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$2.28K

$140.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-03-16

last 10-28 02:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 191 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 86% -$108

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 624 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	—	+10	$10	100¢	$10	+$0	10-28 04:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 13:35 UTC	4	$405	219	218	+1	Up	+$6	03-20 13:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 08:20 UTC	3	$255	171	169	+3	Up	+$84	03-20 08:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 18:05 UTC	3	$187	431	0	+431	Down	-$187	03-18 18:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 10:00 UTC	4	$148	101	100	+1	Down	+$49	03-20 10:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 17:55 UTC	1	$130	256	0	+256	Down	-$130	03-18 17:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 07:30 UTC	2	$116	67	66	+1	Up	+$16	03-20 07:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 14:20 UTC	4	$111	80	78	+1	Up	+$43	03-20 14:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 15:15 UTC	2	$104	53	53	+0	Up	+$1	04-19 15:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 19:10 UTC	2	$85	67	66	+1	Up	+$46	03-20 19:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 07:05 UTC	5	$77	125	0	+125	Up	-$77	03-20 07:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 16:15 UTC	1	$76	77	0	+77	Up	+$1	03-31 16:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 08:25 UTC	2	$73	56	55	+1	Down	+$5	03-20 08:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	3	$62	42	36	+5	Down	+$3	05-27 14:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 04:15 UTC	3	$56	74	0	+74	Up	+$18	03-27 04:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 23:20 UTC	2	$55	69	0	+69	Up	-$55	03-19 23:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 09:25 UTC	1	$53	105	0	+105	Up	-$53	03-20 09:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 15:25 UTC	2	$53	82	0	+82	Down	+$30	03-19 15:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 08:15 UTC	4	$51	34	33	+1	Up	+$15	03-31 08:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	10	$50	52	0	+52	Down	+$2	09-18 23:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 21:20 UTC	10	$50	52	0	+52	Up	+$2	09-25 21:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 08:10 UTC	2	$48	26	26	+0	Up	+$3	03-20 08:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	3	$48	118	100	+18	Down	-$12	05-30 14:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 19:45 UTC	3	$47	121	0	+121	Down	-$47	03-20 19:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 22:15 UTC	3	$45	76	0	+76	Down	+$31	03-26 22:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 05:20 UTC	3	$45	53	0	+53	Up	+$9	04-17 05:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 02:40 UTC	3	$43	69	0	+69	Down	+$27	03-27 02:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 10:00 UTC	3	$41	82	0	+82	Up	+$5	03-22 10:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 08:25 UTC	3	$41	27	27	+0	Down	+$13	03-24 08:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 05:10 UTC	2	$40	65	0	+65	Up	+$24	03-27 05:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 06:30 UTC	8	$40	42	0	+42	Up	+$2	09-17 06:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 04:06:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc72d40…
10-28 04:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa401d5…
10-28 03:58:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xaf856c…
10-28 03:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x7f705c…
10-28 03:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x227b60…
10-28 03:53:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb094c8…
10-28 03:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe1c11a…
10-28 03:48:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x35eaa8…
10-28 03:43:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xea7099…
10-28 03:43:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe1ac18…
10-28 03:43:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xaaed32…
10-28 03:43:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf3a3ef…
10-28 03:38:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x56bcf8…
10-28 03:22:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x807fed…
10-28 03:22:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xfd7025…
10-28 03:22:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xf80e3e…
10-28 03:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x76f4a0…
10-28 03:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3f6036…
10-28 03:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x183a17…
10-28 02:51:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xe8208d…
10-28 02:51:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5b2706…
10-28 02:51:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x7aee6d…
10-28 02:51:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4d5b7f…
10-28 02:44:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xee3d64…
10-28 02:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2dbce1…
10-28 02:43:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xd8026d…
10-28 02:43:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xfe6958…
10-28 02:42:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x177218…
10-28 02:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xb7aa26…
10-28 02:42:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x6b9267…
10-28 02:42:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x58be54…
10-28 02:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x47804e…
10-28 02:21:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xce5078…
10-28 02:21:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x7b1c2f…
10-28 02:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xd8bedb…
10-28 02:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x06c746…
10-28 02:12:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd33326…
10-28 02:12:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xab4b75…
10-28 02:12:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xdd9680…
10-28 02:12:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb5f2f9…
10-28 02:12:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x393e37…
10-28 02:03:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x8ffd7e…
10-28 02:03:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7e77d6…
10-28 02:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xb26a23…
10-28 02:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x20f1b2…
10-28 01:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x88a445…
10-28 01:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x1f5d35…
10-28 01:57:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xfa85fc…
10-28 01:57:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x7943ba…
10-28 01:56:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9e5ce2…
10-28 01:56:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x7381dd…
10-28 01:22:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5967c2…
10-28 01:22:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe9d21f…
10-28 01:22:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x74b6df…
10-28 01:21:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x53a003…
10-28 01:21:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x0f5a47…
10-28 01:18:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x7f8562…
10-28 01:18:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x19b01a…
10-28 01:13:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0x47c23f…
10-28 01:12:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xffc6d8…
10-28 01:12:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5ce706…
10-28 01:12:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xef0285…
10-28 01:12:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xca9c3b…
10-28 01:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xdbc13d…
10-28 01:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x50be0b…
10-28 00:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0ab7c8…
10-28 00:48:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x42bc78…
10-28 00:39:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	SELL	8	80¢	$7	0xfa73fc…
10-28 00:38:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x35919e…
10-28 00:37:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xd55282…
10-28 00:37:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb61c66…
10-28 00:37:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x732e8b…
10-28 00:37:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x46591b…
10-28 00:37:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x3be429…
10-28 00:37:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x3ac098…
10-28 00:24:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	SELL	3	68¢	$2	0xe4492c…
10-28 00:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xb0766d…
10-28 00:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5a2aa7…
10-28 00:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x378dc8…
10-28 00:07:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x7fa856…
10-28 00:07:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7c63bb…
10-28 00:07:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x9555a8…
10-28 00:07:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x85f6da…
10-28 00:07:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe8f106…
10-28 00:07:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xb78b1d…
10-28 00:07:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x692712…
10-28 00:02:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x733887…
10-28 00:02:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x27753d…
10-28 00:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xc1b750…
10-28 00:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5dbc0c…
10-27 23:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xbe442c…
10-27 23:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x66e7e8…
10-27 23:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xc5363c…
10-27 23:51:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x9d1cac…
10-27 23:47:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5f738e…
10-27 23:47:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x5c4aad…
10-27 23:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xc2d43e…
10-27 23:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7164b3…
10-27 23:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9d5eb6…
10-27 23:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3cbfd2…