Expert-Margin — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$540

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

93.8%

Resolved (30d)

4,944

Trades (30d)

13,997

34,994 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$61.5K

$140.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$31

1 position

First seen

2026-03-16

last 10-28 10:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 191 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 86% -$97

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 624 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	—	+31	$30	100¢	$31	+$1	10-28 11:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 13:35 UTC	4	$405	219	218	+1	Up	+$6	03-20 13:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 08:20 UTC	3	$255	171	169	+3	Up	+$84	03-20 08:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 18:05 UTC	3	$187	431	0	+431	Down	-$187	03-18 18:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 10:00 UTC	4	$148	101	100	+1	Down	+$49	03-20 10:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 17:55 UTC	1	$130	256	0	+256	Down	-$130	03-18 17:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 07:30 UTC	2	$116	67	66	+1	Up	+$16	03-20 07:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 14:20 UTC	4	$111	80	78	+1	Up	+$43	03-20 14:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 15:15 UTC	2	$104	53	53	+0	Up	+$1	04-19 15:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 19:10 UTC	2	$85	67	66	+1	Up	+$46	03-20 19:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 07:05 UTC	5	$77	125	0	+125	Up	-$77	03-20 07:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 16:15 UTC	1	$76	77	0	+77	Up	+$1	03-31 16:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 08:25 UTC	2	$73	56	55	+1	Down	+$5	03-20 08:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	3	$62	42	36	+5	Down	+$3	05-27 14:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 04:15 UTC	3	$56	74	0	+74	Up	+$18	03-27 04:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 23:20 UTC	2	$55	69	0	+69	Up	-$55	03-19 23:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 09:25 UTC	1	$53	105	0	+105	Up	-$53	03-20 09:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 15:25 UTC	2	$53	82	0	+82	Down	+$30	03-19 15:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 08:15 UTC	4	$51	34	33	+1	Up	+$15	03-31 08:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	10	$50	52	0	+52	Down	+$2	09-18 23:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 21:20 UTC	10	$50	52	0	+52	Up	+$2	09-25 21:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 08:10 UTC	2	$48	26	26	+0	Up	+$3	03-20 08:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	3	$48	118	100	+18	Down	-$12	05-30 14:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 19:45 UTC	3	$47	121	0	+121	Down	-$47	03-20 19:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 22:15 UTC	3	$45	76	0	+76	Down	+$31	03-26 22:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 05:20 UTC	3	$45	53	0	+53	Up	+$9	04-17 05:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 02:40 UTC	3	$43	69	0	+69	Down	+$27	03-27 02:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 10:00 UTC	3	$41	82	0	+82	Up	+$5	03-22 10:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 08:25 UTC	3	$41	27	27	+0	Down	+$13	03-24 08:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 05:10 UTC	2	$40	65	0	+65	Up	+$24	03-27 05:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 06:30 UTC	8	$40	42	0	+42	Up	+$2	09-17 06:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 11:41:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe59acf…
10-28 11:41:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x8b2330…
10-28 11:41:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xd1e0f5…
10-28 11:41:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf8b89b…
10-28 11:41:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xfde939…
10-28 11:41:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x02c7e5…
10-28 11:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x9887f7…
10-28 11:23:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x016380…
10-28 11:23:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xeae7e0…
10-28 11:23:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd6d874…
10-28 11:07:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xb8bf05…
10-28 11:07:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x67692c…
10-28 11:07:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xacb672…
10-28 11:07:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9a150e…
10-28 11:07:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xf761fe…
10-28 11:07:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x6515fb…
10-28 11:06:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x899152…
10-28 11:06:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x516f0b…
10-28 10:48:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd87d8f…
10-28 10:48:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5b6eec…
10-28 10:48:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x4ca19b…
10-28 10:48:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x46cb41…
10-28 10:47:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x8cb6ba…
10-28 10:47:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x47662a…
10-28 10:43:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x378092…
10-28 10:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xaa981e…
10-28 10:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7af137…
10-28 10:07:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb61abc…
10-28 10:07:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb2fc71…
10-28 09:43:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xcb489c…
10-28 09:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xce73f7…
10-28 09:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x065b7b…
10-28 09:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xad5b98…
10-28 09:42:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe8dd00…
10-28 09:42:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0360c7…
10-28 09:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x66b313…
10-28 09:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x41d788…
10-28 09:21:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xdbbfc4…
10-28 09:21:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x699642…
10-28 09:21:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x7ca7ba…
10-28 09:21:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x650ba2…
10-28 09:21:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xec232a…
10-28 09:21:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x708000…
10-28 09:19:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe2ae88…
10-28 09:18:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xac7a4f…
10-28 09:18:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x9538f1…
10-28 09:18:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3c6431…
10-28 09:18:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb5e2b0…
10-28 09:18:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xf4dc4c…
10-28 09:18:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xdad26a…
10-28 09:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xf67972…
10-28 08:48:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc2e9a3…
10-28 08:48:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x99954c…
10-28 08:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xc77507…
10-28 08:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5d2933…
10-28 08:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x966e43…
10-28 08:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x8593a9…
10-28 08:46:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x4726b6…
10-28 08:46:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x40be2d…
10-28 08:36:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xda5aa2…
10-28 08:36:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa6c0ff…
10-28 08:26:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe1bf72…
10-28 08:26:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x483271…
10-28 08:23:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6aaef8…
10-28 08:23:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x353332…
10-28 07:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3e94dd…
10-28 07:56:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd267ea…
10-28 07:52:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xf2feff…
10-28 07:52:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5ddcac…
10-28 07:46:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbfe8ce…
10-28 07:46:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3e0f79…
10-28 07:46:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x92cc01…
10-28 07:44:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x684ab5…
10-28 07:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x281a46…
10-28 07:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4ef9f8…
10-28 07:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x484117…
10-28 06:47:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x72d4a1…
10-28 06:47:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2b7e8c…
10-28 06:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x77fe86…
10-28 05:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x819a25…
10-28 05:51:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2a279f…
10-28 05:51:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x21a2cf…
10-28 05:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x032719…
10-28 05:48:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xd88c88…
10-28 05:33:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x0b250d…
10-28 05:03:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xee6272…
10-28 05:03:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x35d78e…
10-28 05:02:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xdb2564…
10-28 05:01:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xe3a368…
10-28 05:01:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x79ca1e…
10-28 04:57:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xb761b6…
10-28 04:57:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x3cffd2…
10-28 04:57:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd5c33d…
10-28 04:57:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x70ff86…
10-28 04:53:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xed556d…
10-28 04:48:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xfc0eb6…
10-28 04:38:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xfafe98…
10-28 04:37:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x537d1f…
10-28 04:37:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x86e416…
10-28 04:37:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x8d5c7f…