Expert-Margin — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$523

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

93.8%

Resolved (30d)

4,943

Trades (30d)

14,053

35,131 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$61.8K

$141.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-03-16

last 10-28 18:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 191 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 86% -$108

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 624 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	—	+10	$10	99¢	$10	+$0	10-28 19:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 13:35 UTC	4	$405	219	218	+1	Up	+$6	03-20 13:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 08:20 UTC	3	$255	171	169	+3	Up	+$84	03-20 08:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 18:05 UTC	3	$187	431	0	+431	Down	-$187	03-18 18:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 10:00 UTC	4	$148	101	100	+1	Down	+$49	03-20 10:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 17:55 UTC	1	$130	256	0	+256	Down	-$130	03-18 17:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 07:30 UTC	2	$116	67	66	+1	Up	+$16	03-20 07:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 14:20 UTC	4	$111	80	78	+1	Up	+$43	03-20 14:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 15:15 UTC	2	$104	53	53	+0	Up	+$1	04-19 15:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 19:10 UTC	2	$85	67	66	+1	Up	+$46	03-20 19:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 07:05 UTC	5	$77	125	0	+125	Up	-$77	03-20 07:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 16:15 UTC	1	$76	77	0	+77	Up	+$1	03-31 16:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 08:25 UTC	2	$73	56	55	+1	Down	+$5	03-20 08:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	3	$62	42	36	+5	Down	+$3	05-27 14:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 04:15 UTC	3	$56	74	0	+74	Up	+$18	03-27 04:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 23:20 UTC	2	$55	69	0	+69	Up	-$55	03-19 23:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 09:25 UTC	1	$53	105	0	+105	Up	-$53	03-20 09:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 15:25 UTC	2	$53	82	0	+82	Down	+$30	03-19 15:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 08:15 UTC	4	$51	34	33	+1	Up	+$15	03-31 08:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	10	$50	52	0	+52	Down	+$2	09-18 23:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 21:20 UTC	10	$50	52	0	+52	Up	+$2	09-25 21:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 08:10 UTC	2	$48	26	26	+0	Up	+$3	03-20 08:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	3	$48	118	100	+18	Down	-$12	05-30 14:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 19:45 UTC	3	$47	121	0	+121	Down	-$47	03-20 19:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 22:15 UTC	3	$45	76	0	+76	Down	+$31	03-26 22:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 05:20 UTC	3	$45	53	0	+53	Up	+$9	04-17 05:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 02:40 UTC	3	$43	69	0	+69	Down	+$27	03-27 02:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 10:00 UTC	3	$41	82	0	+82	Up	+$5	03-22 10:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 08:25 UTC	3	$41	27	27	+0	Down	+$13	03-24 08:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 05:10 UTC	2	$40	65	0	+65	Up	+$24	03-27 05:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 06:30 UTC	8	$40	42	0	+42	Up	+$2	09-17 06:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 19:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x778957…
10-28 19:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3920ef…
10-28 19:13:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x292e2b…
10-28 18:53:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x64ffbe…
10-28 18:53:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x377c3c…
10-28 18:46:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xdebc6d…
10-28 18:46:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x335c4d…
10-28 18:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x368ac9…
10-28 18:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x33ced6…
10-28 18:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x52d5f2…
10-28 18:42:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xf3f841…
10-28 18:38:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe57041…
10-28 18:38:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x307ca5…
10-28 18:37:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x383110…
10-28 18:36:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd3b9cf…
10-28 18:36:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x2139d4…
10-28 18:36:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb90d82…
10-28 18:36:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x63595a…
10-28 18:27:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xed51e9…
10-28 18:27:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb61f1e…
10-28 18:07:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd266d2…
10-28 18:07:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0fd6ca…
10-28 18:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa98e8f…
10-28 18:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x065503…
10-28 18:02:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf29486…
10-28 18:02:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6203cb…
10-28 18:02:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb1f716…
10-28 18:02:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2e9750…
10-28 17:42:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x18a6e7…
10-28 17:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xc006e6…
10-28 17:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x16fd3c…
10-28 17:23:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd9e887…
10-28 17:23:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd2c458…
10-28 17:22:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa8c64e…
10-28 17:22:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0b30b1…
10-28 17:22:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x7a108f…
10-28 17:22:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x22892f…
10-28 17:22:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5ad90b…
10-28 17:22:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x11d12f…
10-28 17:18:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe95ecd…
10-28 17:18:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x102461…
10-28 17:17:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x25335a…
10-28 17:17:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x180406…
10-28 17:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9a5a77…
10-28 17:02:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xac4af5…
10-28 17:02:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe10c59…
10-28 16:38:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4da910…
10-28 16:22:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xddd858…
10-28 16:22:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x25aeab…
10-28 16:22:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4111b2…
10-28 16:22:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x74a348…
10-28 16:22:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x6628ef…
10-28 16:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x8a458f…
10-28 16:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x18015d…
10-28 16:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xfe1437…
10-28 16:18:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x91b834…
10-28 16:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0294b7…
10-28 15:58:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xcf2baa…
10-28 15:24:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x0eb1ce…
10-28 15:23:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5545b1…
10-28 15:23:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5286ba…
10-28 15:23:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xaab5d2…
10-28 15:01:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3036de…
10-28 14:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x8d3ae0…
10-28 14:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5ad96c…
10-28 14:53:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x7f1479…
10-28 14:52:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x895f94…
10-28 14:42:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x82733a…
10-28 14:42:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc4598d…
10-28 14:42:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa3ac38…
10-28 14:42:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xed1988…
10-28 14:42:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x3f6206…
10-28 14:41:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0fd21e…
10-28 14:41:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x9ad186…
10-28 14:41:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x4462d4…
10-28 14:38:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe6f817…
10-28 14:38:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb96f0f…
10-28 14:37:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc69d82…
10-28 14:37:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x761908…
10-28 14:37:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xac25de…
10-28 14:37:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x74077a…
10-28 14:37:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xfdb014…
10-28 14:22:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4d32a3…
10-28 14:18:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7dfefb…
10-28 14:18:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x253226…
10-28 14:17:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc90122…
10-28 14:17:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x5d25d3…
10-28 14:17:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb5662f…
10-28 14:17:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x304e34…
10-28 14:17:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xabc7e1…
10-28 14:17:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x791a75…
10-28 14:12:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x8e941d…
10-28 14:12:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x1b4423…
10-28 13:56:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe69f15…
10-28 13:56:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xb6a058…
10-28 13:56:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xf067e7…
10-28 13:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xdf88c3…
10-28 13:47:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x959235…
10-28 13:47:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x8f2883…
10-28 13:47:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x8cbb4d…