Expert-Margin — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$611

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

93.9%

Resolved (90d)

12,064

Trades (90d)

27,458

34,801 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$108.5K

$139.6K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$17

1 position

First seen

2026-03-16

last 10-27 23:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 190 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 86% -$117

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 624 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	—	+17	$16	99¢	$17	+$1	10-27 23:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 13:35 UTC	4	$405	219	218	+1	Up	+$6	03-20 13:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 08:20 UTC	3	$255	171	169	+3	Up	+$84	03-20 08:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 18:05 UTC	3	$187	431	0	+431	Down	-$187	03-18 18:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 10:00 UTC	4	$148	101	100	+1	Down	+$49	03-20 10:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 17:55 UTC	1	$130	256	0	+256	Down	-$130	03-18 17:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 07:30 UTC	2	$116	67	66	+1	Up	+$16	03-20 07:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 14:20 UTC	4	$111	80	78	+1	Up	+$43	03-20 14:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 15:15 UTC	2	$104	53	53	+0	Up	+$1	04-19 15:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 19:10 UTC	2	$85	67	66	+1	Up	+$46	03-20 19:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 07:05 UTC	5	$77	125	0	+125	Up	-$77	03-20 07:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 16:15 UTC	1	$76	77	0	+77	Up	+$1	03-31 16:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 08:25 UTC	2	$73	56	55	+1	Down	+$5	03-20 08:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	3	$62	42	36	+5	Down	+$3	05-27 14:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 04:15 UTC	3	$56	74	0	+74	Up	+$18	03-27 04:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 23:20 UTC	2	$55	69	0	+69	Up	-$55	03-19 23:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 09:25 UTC	1	$53	105	0	+105	Up	-$53	03-20 09:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 15:25 UTC	2	$53	82	0	+82	Down	+$30	03-19 15:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 08:15 UTC	4	$51	34	33	+1	Up	+$15	03-31 08:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	10	$50	52	0	+52	Down	+$2	09-18 23:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 21:20 UTC	10	$50	52	0	+52	Up	+$2	09-25 21:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 08:10 UTC	2	$48	26	26	+0	Up	+$3	03-20 08:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	3	$48	118	100	+18	Down	-$12	05-30 14:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 19:45 UTC	3	$47	121	0	+121	Down	-$47	03-20 19:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 22:15 UTC	3	$45	76	0	+76	Down	+$31	03-26 22:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 05:20 UTC	3	$45	53	0	+53	Up	+$9	04-17 05:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 02:40 UTC	3	$43	69	0	+69	Down	+$27	03-27 02:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 10:00 UTC	3	$41	82	0	+82	Up	+$5	03-22 10:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 08:25 UTC	3	$41	27	27	+0	Down	+$13	03-24 08:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 05:10 UTC	2	$40	65	0	+65	Up	+$24	03-27 05:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 06:30 UTC	8	$40	42	0	+42	Up	+$2	09-17 06:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 23:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xbe442c…
10-27 23:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x66e7e8…
10-27 23:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xc5363c…
10-27 23:51:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x9d1cac…
10-27 23:47:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5f738e…
10-27 23:47:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x5c4aad…
10-27 23:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xc2d43e…
10-27 23:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7164b3…
10-27 23:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9d5eb6…
10-27 23:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3cbfd2…
10-27 23:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x18d70d…
10-27 23:42:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xc71303…
10-27 23:42:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x2ece5b…
10-27 23:27:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xc4c844…
10-27 23:27:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb259e8…
10-27 23:27:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xc62abf…
10-27 23:27:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x5bcfe9…
10-27 23:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xb8fcc7…
10-27 23:03:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xf09f65…
10-27 22:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5bb40f…
10-27 22:43:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd5e144…
10-27 22:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe5b2e7…
10-27 22:36:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x387f2a…
10-27 22:36:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x041560…
10-27 22:36:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x040708…
10-27 22:28:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xa121b0…
10-27 22:28:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x078a20…
10-27 22:17:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xc1613a…
10-27 22:17:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xba6db6…
10-27 22:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x957a66…
10-27 22:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x37edff…
10-27 22:16:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd8c150…
10-27 22:16:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xa5f127…
10-27 22:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x665b9f…
10-27 22:13:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x669f17…
10-27 21:52:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x56ca66…
10-27 21:52:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x019638…
10-27 21:52:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xc37e00…
10-27 21:52:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x957133…
10-27 21:48:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xc1de67…
10-27 21:48:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x717d32…
10-27 21:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa1d25f…
10-27 21:42:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x9da4c3…
10-27 21:42:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf98670…
10-27 21:42:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xe891bc…
10-27 21:27:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xe9459e…
10-27 21:27:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x05a9ca…
10-27 21:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd9c7b4…
10-27 21:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x03e56a…
10-27 21:27:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xdb2718…
10-27 21:27:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x8d1e4d…
10-27 21:27:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x42f88a…
10-27 21:23:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0e8f62…
10-27 21:23:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xdc7ef1…
10-27 21:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x704317…
10-27 21:23:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xfa1cde…
10-27 20:53:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb17a7c…
10-27 20:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x897197…
10-27 20:48:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe16fbd…
10-27 20:48:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x8cc190…
10-27 20:33:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xff69cb…
10-27 20:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xfc018b…
10-27 20:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x23a1ce…
10-27 20:22:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb35e53…
10-27 20:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x822c0b…
10-27 20:04:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x08a5a6…
10-27 20:03:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x833b64…
10-27 20:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xddc570…
10-27 20:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xcdf805…
10-27 20:03:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb85075…
10-27 20:03:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x809a95…
10-27 19:57:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb16ce6…
10-27 19:57:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x27d605…
10-27 19:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf8c5a8…
10-27 19:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xc9fe3f…
10-27 19:37:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xdaad49…
10-27 19:18:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x9719c6…
10-27 19:18:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x353a67…
10-27 19:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9398a1…
10-27 19:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x4a349b…
10-27 19:08:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5456d3…
10-27 19:08:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb1293b…
10-27 18:57:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x69e98e…
10-27 18:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xbaeb3b…
10-27 18:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x25334a…
10-27 18:57:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xc23ee3…
10-27 18:57:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x81815c…
10-27 18:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x4113ef…
10-27 18:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0e60e1…
10-27 18:52:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xa57735…
10-27 18:52:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7040df…
10-27 18:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xeb855f…
10-27 18:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc76975…
10-27 18:36:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xee99cf…
10-27 18:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xfe0e40…
10-27 18:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x68dcf8…
10-27 18:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd329ff…
10-27 18:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xa57413…
10-27 18:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xe60db9…
10-27 18:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x792439…