Scholarly-Psychology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$559

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

57.1%

Resolved

Trades

1,392

lifetime

Volume

$59.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

$17

1 position

First seen

2026-04-08

last 07-21 04:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

48% 29% +$251

Other

37% 25% +$314

Crypto

7% — —

Sports

5% 0% $-6

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 89 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+87	$16	20¢	$17	+$1	07-20 16:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	38	$2.3K	2,038	2,038	+0	open	—	04-15 18:36
fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 total 4pt5	2	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-18 23:27
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	20	$1.4K	1,880	880	+1,000	open	—	07-07 07:27
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?	10	$1.1K	1,057	1,057	+0	open	—	04-12 18:06
fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 total 4pt5	2	$1.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-15 03:42
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?	7	$855	662	662	+0	open	—	04-10 07:19
fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 first half total 1pt5	2	$847	862	862	+0	open	—	06-15 02:29
fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 total 5pt5	2	$819	500	500	+0	open	—	06-18 23:53
fifwc sco mar 2026 06 19 corners total 6pt5	3	$790	500	500	+0	open	—	06-19 22:58
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	20	$790	683	683	+0	open	—	04-18 22:17
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	24	$779	795	795	+0	open	—	04-12 13:14
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?	5	$745	333	500	-167	open	—	04-12 21:19
iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	18	$744	738	737	+0	open	—	07-19 09:09
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	8	$623	501	501	+0	open	—	04-20 14:45
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	6	$619	1,893	736	+1,157	open	—	05-25 03:27
iran closes its airspace by june 8	23	$615	2,490	490	+2,000	open	—	06-12 00:15
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	8	$613	560	560	+0	open	—	07-01 21:21
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	7	$613	1,358	660	+698	open	—	06-14 16:04
fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 first half total 1pt5	4	$584	606	606	+0	open	—	06-17 20:39
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	16	$519	560	560	+0	open	—	04-20 05:17
will spencer pratt concede by july 2 20260608151037171	5	$516	651	479	+172	open	—	06-28 00:33
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	7	$510	346	346	+0	open	—	07-19 22:56
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	13	$508	821	821	+0	open	—	04-16 14:59
fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 total 3pt5	1	$500	704	0	+704	open	—	06-16 23:22
fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 total 6pt5	1	$500	714	0	+714	open	—	06-14 18:39
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	15	$496	550	450	+100	open	—	07-05 23:29
fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 first half total 1pt5	2	$475	500	500	+0	open	—	06-17 17:36
fifwc tun jpn 2026 06 21 first half total 1pt5	2	$468	400	400	+0	open	—	06-21 04:18
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	13	$460	473	473	+0	open	—	04-17 15:22
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	9	$456	3,076	3,376	-300	open	—	06-02 22:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 17:44:58	iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	No	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x4242e7…
07-21 16:29:03	world cup finals coin toss result 20260716230203068	Argentina	SELL	112	99¢	$111	0x822b01…
07-21 15:51:46	iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	No	BUY	10	15¢	$1	0x6ed819…
07-21 15:50:46	world cup finals coin toss result 20260716230203068	Argentina	SELL	88	94¢	$83	0x1191b3…
07-21 15:07:52	iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	No	BUY	170	14¢	$24	0xbe1227…
07-21 04:06:51	world cup finals coin toss result 20260716230203068	Argentina	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xb3d4f2…
07-21 03:46:34	world cup finals coin toss result 20260716230203068	Argentina	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xde91aa…
07-20 23:22:21	will trump speak to andy burnham in july 20260720151658724	No	SELL	92	26¢	$24	0x51163e…
07-20 23:22:07	will trump speak to andy burnham in july 20260720151658724	No	SELL	71	28¢	$20	0xbea103…
07-20 23:15:57	will trump speak to andy burnham in july 20260720151658724	No	BUY	63	30¢	$19	0x50fda0…
07-20 16:19:46	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	18¢	$16	0x19801d…
07-20 14:31:12	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x6e7551…
07-20 14:13:55	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	105	60¢	$63	0x8cf946…
07-20 14:11:49	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x543043…
07-20 14:08:57	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	55	70¢	$38	0x7da44e…
07-20 13:50:48	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	45	50¢	$22	0xf1fd6f…
07-19 22:56:52	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0x8a440f…
07-19 22:54:03	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x7e5a53…
07-19 22:43:40	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0xb8b560…
07-19 22:42:12	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xb38790…
07-19 22:42:07	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x547661…
07-19 22:02:33	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$4	0x906bf1…
07-19 20:34:49	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	299	2¢	$4	0x09885a…
07-19 20:34:40	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	80	2¢	$1	0x829ef0…
07-19 20:34:33	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	421	2¢	$6	0x74c97d…
07-19 20:30:54	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x09b8b7…
07-19 20:27:46	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x90532c…
07-19 20:01:55	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	SELL	96	39¢	$38	0x5fcd1f…
07-19 18:27:57	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	96	42¢	$40	0x09a7ae…
07-19 17:20:06	iran successfully targets shipping on july 17	No	BUY	34	32¢	$11	0x4acadf…
07-19 16:46:16	iran successfully targets shipping on july 17	No	BUY	55	32¢	$17	0x2d179f…
07-19 09:09:21	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	SELL	303	96¢	$291	0xaa698f…
07-19 09:05:18	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd1b658…
07-18 14:37:27	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0x019a3a…
07-18 05:19:01	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x86dc87…
07-18 04:01:16	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	191	60¢	$115	0x5253d8…
07-18 00:10:36	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0xe7d0e1…
07-17 23:39:43	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x369381…
07-17 20:12:58	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	No	SELL	30	62¢	$19	0x2e43dc…
07-17 20:01:36	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	No	SELL	15	68¢	$10	0x2dd2b0…
07-17 18:50:37	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0x66d315…
07-17 18:19:28	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	74	42¢	$31	0x873607…
07-17 18:03:25	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	18	42¢	$8	0x2ba67d…
07-17 18:02:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0xdf3b41…
07-17 17:59:48	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0x47106e…
07-17 04:33:31	btc updown 15m 1784262600	Up	SELL	44	63¢	$28	0xa7ac5d…
07-17 04:33:01	btc updown 15m 1784262600	Up	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x3a063e…
07-17 04:20:25	btc updown 5m 1784262000	Up	SELL	64	43¢	$28	0x723bae…
07-17 04:20:18	btc updown 5m 1784262000	Up	BUY	64	39¢	$25	0x20710d…
07-17 04:19:49	btc updown 15m 1784261700	Up	SELL	81	3¢	$2	0x1a0542…
07-17 04:18:45	btc updown 15m 1784261700	Up	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0xa04043…
07-17 04:14:40	btc updown 5m 1784261400	Up	BUY	61	16¢	$10	0x35e253…
07-17 04:09:03	btc updown 5m 1784261100	Up	SELL	76	72¢	$55	0x403dd2…
07-17 04:07:55	btc updown 5m 1784261100	Up	BUY	76	33¢	$25	0xeb3ccf…
07-17 03:58:43	btc updown 5m 1784260500	Down	SELL	78	38¢	$30	0xefb5fc…
07-17 03:57:25	btc updown 5m 1784260500	Down	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0x0c5dd4…
07-17 02:58:00	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	SELL	200	30¢	$60	0x55abeb…
07-17 02:28:51	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	SELL	31	42¢	$13	0x9dd01e…
07-16 21:47:32	will moonshot ais kimi k3 model be released by july 31 2026	No	SELL	135	0¢	$0	0x1cc9f7…
07-16 17:52:40	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	154	56¢	$86	0xd78f11…
07-16 17:22:08	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	77	58¢	$45	0xdd8779…
07-16 17:18:50	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	Yes	SELL	102	42¢	$43	0xf7d598…
07-16 16:58:26	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	Yes	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0x1ff41f…
07-16 16:26:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xe90366…
07-16 15:46:29	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xbd766f…
07-16 15:40:14	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	No	BUY	200	4¢	$7	0x6ca354…
07-16 15:39:41	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	No	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0x35ffaa…
07-16 04:51:10	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	No	BUY	42	52¢	$22	0x9fe257…
07-16 03:26:07	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	99	70¢	$69	0x8f926f…
07-16 03:11:08	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	104	47¢	$49	0x79a6c5…
07-16 02:43:11	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xc7e526…
07-15 23:19:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x08e65c…
07-15 16:49:49	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	40	55¢	$22	0x62cf32…
07-15 15:41:56	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	41	53¢	$22	0x331574…
07-14 19:17:25	Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0xf98fcc…
07-14 19:17:20	Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	18	30¢	$5	0x38282b…
07-14 19:17:11	Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	25	30¢	$7	0x9927bc…
07-14 16:51:31	will moonshot ais kimi k3 model be released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	135	1¢	$2	0xb04543…
07-13 19:36:16	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x3a25e4…
07-13 19:35:55	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	0	29¢	$0	0x229546…
07-13 18:27:44	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0xc9d398…
07-13 16:47:05	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	SELL	173	31¢	$54	0xb78256…
07-13 14:56:44	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0xe56d68…
07-13 05:56:10	Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	110	21¢	$23	0x363a02…
07-13 05:28:02	Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	45	34¢	$15	0x667500…
07-13 05:27:10	Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	170	40¢	$68	0x81f403…
07-13 05:20:28	Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0xd791fa…
07-13 04:51:41	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	SELL	240	44¢	$106	0x520b9b…
07-13 04:34:47	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x52e5d4…
07-13 04:32:43	Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0xf3fb6b…
07-13 04:32:43	Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	0	30¢	$0	0x5d77fb…
07-13 04:27:20	Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	28	30¢	$8	0xdd99ec…
07-12 16:54:56	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xcb4ca3…
07-12 16:54:34	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xd640d3…
07-12 16:43:50	iran military action against a gulf state on july 12 20260708212322937	No	SELL	200	9¢	$17	0x0887f5…
07-12 16:02:10	iran military action against a gulf state on july 12 20260708212322937	No	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0x2ab5d1…
07-12 11:50:20	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	30	73¢	$22	0xd08523…
07-11 14:15:55	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	170	50¢	$85	0x40bb04…
07-11 03:59:37	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	No	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0xbe7b2a…
07-10 23:36:53	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	581	7¢	$39	0x561eb4…