Nocturnal-Vernacular — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$267

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

99.3%

Resolved

467

Trades

597

lifetime

Volume

$127.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$214

Open exposure

$10

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-12 10:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Sports

51% 97% -$493

Other

29% 100% +$73

Crypto

10% 85% +$24

Tech

6% 100% +$24

Politics

5% 100% +$105

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	No		+5	$5	99¢	$5	+$0	10-12 10:46
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No		+5	$5	98¢	$5	+$0	08-15 02:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bkcba sha fuj 2026 01 18	1	$2.4K	2,385	+2,385	Shanxi Loongs	+$2	01-18 18:42
dota2 lynx navi 2026 01 10 game1	1	$2.3K	2,347	+2,347	Team Lynx	+$2	01-10 12:26
wta sasnovi snigur 2026 01 15	1	$2.3K	2,319	+2,319	Sasnovich	+$2	01-15 05:06
nfl sea sf 2026 01 04 anytime td zach charbonnet	1	$2.3K	2,308	+2,308	Yes	+$2	01-04 16:53
atp blockx cecchin 2026 01 12 match total 22pt5	1	$2.3K	2,293	+2,293	Under	+$2	01-13 10:48
will buffalo face chicago in super bowl lx	4	$2.3K	2,284	+2,284	No	+$3	01-18 01:30
wta raducan osorio 2026 01 11 set handicap home 1pt5	1	$2.3K	2,255	+2,255	Raducanu	+$2	01-14 03:55
atp shepp struff 2026 01 09	2	$2.2K	2,246	+2,246	Struff	+$2	01-10 05:02
wta sabalen muchova 2026 01 09	3	$2.2K	2,217	+2,217	Sabalenka	+$2	01-10 03:55
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$2.2K	2,218	+2,218	Yes	+$9	04-07 18:44
Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$2.2K	2,194	+2,194	Yes	+$2	01-29 14:41
nba orl mia 2026 01 28 assists davion mitchell 5pt5	1	$2.2K	2,192	+2,192	No	+$2	01-29 08:45
Will the US strike Somalia next?	2	$2.2K	2,182	+2,182	Yes	+$14	01-27 21:23
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	1	$2.2K	2,167	+2,167	Yes	+$2	03-31 02:09
will the us strike somalia next 656	1	$2.2K	2,169	+2,169	Yes	+$7	01-24 07:06
nba uta phx 2026 03 28	1	$2.2K	2,164	+2,164	Suns	+$2	03-29 03:32
nba was gsw 2026 03 27	1	$2.2K	2,162	+2,162	Warriors	+$4	03-28 04:25
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$2.1K	2,150	+2,150	No	+$2	03-19 18:14
will iran strike israel on march 10	4	$2.1K	2,149	+2,149	Yes	+$6	03-14 11:03
will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	1	$2.1K	2,143	+2,143	No	+$2	03-10 08:14
nvda above 160 on march 6 2026	1	$2.1K	2,141	+2,141	Yes	+$2	03-06 08:58
Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$2.1K	2,127	+2,127	No	+$2	01-23 12:19
Seeker FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$2.1K	2,116	+2,116	Yes	+$2	01-21 19:03
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	1	$2.1K	2,087	+2,087	Timberwolves	+$10	05-11 02:18
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$2.1K	2,082	+2,082	Yes	+$12	04-22 15:58
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$2.0K	2,122	+2,122	Yes	+$85	01-30 10:36
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	1	$2.0K	1,991	+1,991	No	+$2	03-20 16:06
cs2 eye ursa 2026 01 21	1	$2.0K	1,971	+1,971	Ursa	+$2	01-22 00:09
will leavitt say tiktok during the next white house press briefing	1	$1.9K	1,885	+1,885	No	+$2	01-15 18:53
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?	1	$1.8K	1,841	+1,841	No	+$6	01-20 11:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 10:46:18	Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x48cd2d…
08-25 05:33:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf87a6a…
08-15 02:26:18	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x04d9c2…
07-07 07:26:29	Will Luke Kennard play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xed8614…
07-07 07:25:44	Will Walker Kessler play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xd1ff18…
07-07 07:25:31	Will Walker Kessler play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xf0619e…
07-07 07:25:23	Will Walker Kessler play for the Memphis Grizzlies in 2026-27?	No	BUY	244	100¢	$244	0x6fe72f…
07-07 07:25:10	Will Walker Kessler play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xbbbfc2…
07-07 07:24:59	Will Walker Kessler play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x8e00fb…
07-07 07:24:44	Will Walker Kessler play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x056622…
07-07 07:24:37	Will Walker Kessler play for the Charlotte Hornets in 2026-27?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x6392fa…
07-07 07:24:28	Will Walker Kessler play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xad3875…
07-07 07:24:07	Will Walker Kessler play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa07e01…
07-07 07:23:22	Will Luke Kennard play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf6c014…
07-07 07:22:29	Will Walker Kessler play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x395dab…
07-07 07:22:16	Will Walker Kessler play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0xa16709…
07-07 07:21:46	Will Walker Kessler play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$16	0x729349…
07-07 07:21:28	Will Mark Williams play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x3ec9af…
07-07 07:20:32	Will Marcus Smart play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xaa16a2…
07-07 07:19:22	Will Marcus Smart play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0xe23cfa…
07-07 07:15:29	Will Mark Williams play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb4ff4e…
07-07 07:14:50	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xec1e7a…
07-07 07:12:31	Will Marcus Smart play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27?	No	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0xeeda49…
07-07 07:12:14	Will Marcus Smart play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0x8bf185…
07-07 07:11:56	Will Mark Williams play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x4854ee…
06-23 05:01:08	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?	No	BUY	203	100¢	$202	0x363788…
06-23 05:00:29	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	950	100¢	$946	0xd25e58…
06-23 05:00:04	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?	No	BUY	479	100¢	$476	0x23e6d2…
06-11 03:37:33	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 points stephon castle 15pt5	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbcd77e…
06-11 03:37:16	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 assists karl anthony towns 3pt5	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbc9d32…
06-11 03:36:48	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 assists mikal bridges 0pt5	Yes	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0xf15034…
06-11 03:36:30	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 assists deaaron fox 6pt5	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x52116b…
06-10 10:38:00	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x3300d5…
06-10 10:36:48	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x478fb5…
06-10 10:25:31	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x74d97d…
06-10 10:25:28	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd9d1b2…
06-10 10:22:01	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xff5c60…
06-10 10:21:15	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x760c6c…
06-10 09:58:22	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb6ac1b…
06-10 09:52:36	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x24dbbe…
06-10 09:41:28	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xfaa61b…
06-10 09:40:37	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x027a0d…
06-10 09:39:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5ad97f…
06-10 09:38:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x16141f…
06-10 09:38:19	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x43d58e…
06-10 09:37:22	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2b23d5…
06-10 09:36:03	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x9a2db6…
06-10 09:34:51	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xaa0a6e…
06-10 09:19:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0x2cc131…
06-10 09:19:33	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	44	98¢	$43	0xb02667…
06-10 08:58:06	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x969c57…
06-10 08:56:37	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x65f654…
06-10 08:56:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xb2b754…
06-10 08:55:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x336e10…
06-10 08:53:57	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	180	98¢	$176	0xafeeaa…
05-27 03:45:46	Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0xc84436…
05-26 12:19:46	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	244	99¢	$243	0x2b40c5…
05-26 12:06:28	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0x159599…
05-26 12:00:22	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	113	99¢	$112	0xdfb715…
05-26 11:30:20	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xb15245…
05-26 09:38:27	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	199	98¢	$195	0x7fa3c4…
05-26 09:27:13	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf9bb65…
05-26 09:18:53	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	525	99¢	$522	0x7db8f4…
05-18 17:37:56	Set Handicap: Wawrinka (-1.5) vs Brancaccio (+1.5)	Brancaccio	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0x7e0798…
05-18 17:33:33	atp brancac wawrink 2026 05 18 match total 21pt5	Over	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x56eb8d…
05-18 17:30:56	Set Handicap: Wawrinka (-1.5) vs Brancaccio (+1.5)	Brancaccio	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x81f344…
05-18 17:29:44	Set Handicap: Wawrinka (-1.5) vs Brancaccio (+1.5)	Brancaccio	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0x67232d…
05-18 15:24:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x59a605…
05-16 10:43:18	Will Anthony Edwards win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Yes	SELL	115	0¢	$0	0xd7a94d…
05-16 10:23:05	atp butvila muller 2026 05 16 set handicap away 1pt5	Butvilas	BUY	64	100¢	$64	0xeeb01b…
05-15 20:32:14	NBA Playoffs: Cavaliers vs. Pistons Total Games O/U 5.5	Over 5.5	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x8eed16…
05-13 04:52:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x8fa692…
05-13 04:20:05	NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Timberwolves Total Games O/U 5.5	Over 5.5	BUY	146	100¢	$145	0xb88394…
05-12 02:37:17	Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	468	100¢	$468	0xd8d7e5…
05-12 02:37:06	Dean Wade: Assists O/U 0.5	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xa75bef…
05-12 02:36:26	Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaeb09e…
05-12 02:36:07	Dean Wade: Points O/U 0.5	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb3e73e…
05-12 02:35:48	Tobias Harris: Points O/U 18.5	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xba136b…
05-12 02:34:57	Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 7.5	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x99c2d7…
05-12 02:34:10	Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x65270e…
05-12 02:33:42	Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x2ba27e…
05-12 02:33:31	Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 0.5	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x3496a8…
05-12 02:30:40	NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5	Under 5.5	BUY	181	99¢	$179	0x358994…
05-12 02:26:54	Will the NBA alter draft lottery rules?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x1e7394…
05-12 02:26:24	NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Timberwolves Total Games O/U 5.5	Over 5.5	BUY	598	100¢	$598	0x4c14e7…
05-12 02:25:11	NBA Playoffs: Cavaliers vs. Pistons Total Games O/U 5.5	Over 5.5	BUY	354	100¢	$354	0x962f4c…
05-12 02:20:31	Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x4a64b2…
05-12 02:20:18	Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$79	0xd5486d…
05-11 13:50:15	NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5	Under 5.5	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xa9066e…
05-11 13:47:10	Will Anthony Edwards win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Yes	BUY	115	3¢	$3	0xb15483…
05-11 02:18:55	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	BUY	2,087	100¢	$2,076	0x158083…
05-09 04:31:27	Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 2.5	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xeb5b0b…
05-09 04:31:08	De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x5c20ad…
05-09 04:30:55	De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x7ecaf9…
05-09 04:30:34	Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xd94acf…
05-08 01:38:08	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	1,746	100¢	$1,744	0x67b78c…
05-08 01:37:28	James Harden: Points O/U 18.5	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x149127…
05-08 01:37:07	Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x86a147…
05-08 01:36:56	Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xe0d30f…
05-08 01:36:42	Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xd18980…