Defiant-Million — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$32.2K

Unrealized P&L

+$678

Hit rate

78.8%

Resolved

862

Trades

1,710

lifetime

Volume

$551.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$323

Open exposure

$20.9K

17 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 04:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 214 days

Categories

Crypto

84% 81% -$31,630

Other

8% 83% +$1,858

Politics

7% 74% -$2,643

Sports

0% 60% +$117

Tech

0% 100% +$133

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+12,264	$11,282	92¢	$11.3K	+$61	10-21 00:26
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	No	+3,542	$2,681	74¢	$2.6K	-$78	10-27 00:33
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	No	+1,329	$1,049	86¢	$1.1K	+$88	10-26 02:30
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$720	70¢	$695	-$25	10-23 23:15
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	+694	$578	99¢	$686	+$108	10-22 13:43
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$640	68¢	$675	+$35	10-21 00:25
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	No	+600	$450	97¢	$581	+$131	10-22 13:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	+573	$471	98¢	$561	+$90	10-23 00:27
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	+562	$438	90¢	$509	+$70	10-26 00:28
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+500	$390	96¢	$478	+$88	10-23 00:24
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	+300	$270	99¢	$297	+$27	10-24 23:58
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	No	+359	$288	80¢	$286	-$2	10-28 04:10
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	No	+300	$234	94¢	$280	+$46	10-02 03:22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	+231	$185	90¢	$208	+$23	10-24 16:52
will ethereum reach 2800 in october 2026	No	+200	$172	99¢	$198	+$26	10-17 00:52
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+168	$163	97¢	$163	+$1	10-21 00:35
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?	No	+200	$172	80¢	$161	-$11	10-02 03:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will ethereum dip to 1400 in february 2026	20	$14.5K	7,807	7,807	+0	No	+$739	02-25 21:29
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	3	$11.3K	12,264	0	+12,264	open	—	10-21 00:26
will ethereum dip to 1600 in february 2026	7	$7.5K	5,149	3,000	+2,149	No	+$510	02-26 17:39
ethereum above 3000 on january 5	16	$6.7K	7,467	0	+7,467	Yes	+$746	01-04 19:19
will ethereum dip to 2800 in january 2026 835	2	$6.6K	8,412	0	+8,412	Yes	-$6,650	01-15 03:24
bitcoin above 88k on january 5	3	$6.4K	7,193	0	+7,193	Yes	+$800	01-04 19:21
will ethereum dip to 2600 in january 2026 489	5	$5.3K	6,085	0	+6,085	Yes	-$5,334	01-12 00:56
will ethereum dip to 1600 in march 2026	2	$5.1K	3,040	3,040	+0	No	+$866	03-30 03:04
will ethereum dip to 1700 february 16 22	4	$4.0K	4,421	0	+4,421	No	+$418	02-19 00:19
ethereum above 1900 on march 7	1	$3.9K	4,700	0	+4,700	Yes	+$757	03-06 17:42
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$65	05-23 22:26
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by march 13 158 957	3	$3.8K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$59	03-12 04:01
bitcoin above 64k on march 31	3	$3.7K	1,938	1,934	+3	Yes	+$172	03-31 18:52
will ethereum dip to 1900 april 6 12	2	$3.7K	2,000	1,980	+20	No	+$266	04-11 18:55
will bitcoin dip to 64k april 6 12	5	$3.7K	3,000	1,200	+1,800	No	+$527	04-12 05:02
ethereum above 1900 on february 28	2	$3.4K	4,169	0	+4,169	Yes	+$31	02-26 17:40
ethereum above 2900 on january 4	3	$3.4K	3,925	0	+3,925	Yes	+$517	01-01 21:37
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	2	$3.0K	3,490	0	+3,490	No	+$459	05-28 03:33
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 11-17?	5	$3.0K	3,509	0	+3,509	No	+$513	05-14 01:48
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24?	2	$3.0K	3,000	500	+2,500	No	+$540	05-25 00:43
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	5	$2.8K	1,806	1,806	+0	Yes	+$358	03-16 06:18
Iran leadership change by March 13?	4	$2.8K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$180	03-16 04:09
will ethereum dip to 1300 in july 2026 715	4	$2.7K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$256	07-20 18:24
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	4	$2.7K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$54	04-01 06:35
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	3	$2.7K	3,542	0	+3,542	open	—	10-27 00:33
will ethereum dip to 1900 march 2 8	2	$2.7K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$330	03-04 21:05
will ethereum dip to 1700 february 9 15	2	$2.7K	2,900	0	+2,900	No	+$244	02-09 20:42
will ethereum dip to 1400 in july 2026 711 181	2	$2.6K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$309	07-22 02:18
will ethereum dip to 1800 march 2 8	1	$2.6K	3,017	0	+3,017	No	+$453	03-02 16:54
ethereum above 2000 on march 6	4	$2.5K	2,888	0	+2,888	No	-$2,477	03-05 17:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 04:10:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	No	BUY	359	80¢	$288	0xa853d1…
10-27 00:33:51	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	No	BUY	542	74¢	$401	0xc5c74f…
10-26 02:30:36	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	No	BUY	529	85¢	$450	0xddaafe…
10-26 00:31:54	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	No	BUY	1,000	74¢	$740	0x6a268e…
10-26 00:30:54	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (HIGH) $153 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	110	63¢	$69	0x0382ce…
10-26 00:30:39	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (HIGH) $156 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	110	70¢	$77	0x2abc32…
10-26 00:28:59	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	562	78¢	$438	0x30624b…
10-24 23:58:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	300	90¢	$270	0xdc3f69…
10-24 16:52:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	231	80¢	$185	0x9c8796…
10-24 16:51:38	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	No	BUY	500	76¢	$380	0x7c7fe5…
10-23 23:17:03	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	No	BUY	300	73¢	$219	0x559786…
10-23 23:15:21	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	72¢	$720	0x54173e…
10-23 02:30:56	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	No	BUY	2,000	77¢	$1,540	0x98c113…
10-23 00:27:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	BUY	373	82¢	$305	0x516bd3…
10-23 00:24:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	500	78¢	$390	0xd105dc…
10-22 13:46:21	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x82e42e…
10-22 13:45:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x640405…
10-22 13:43:39	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xc176d5…
10-22 13:43:24	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	No	BUY	300	79¢	$237	0x60511c…
10-22 13:42:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xf97034…
10-21 00:35:47	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	122	97¢	$118	0xf62b00…
10-21 00:33:57	California Higher Local Tax Vote Threshold Proposition	No	BUY	92	88¢	$81	0xdaf468…
10-21 00:31:59	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?	No	BUY	316	91¢	$287	0x78fdab…
10-21 00:29:24	Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?	No	BUY	330	89¢	$293	0xcb7a0c…
10-21 00:26:50	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	2,000	92¢	$1,840	0xa0b166…
10-21 00:25:32	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	64¢	$640	0xf5d273…
10-21 00:24:39	California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x18b038…
10-21 00:24:30	California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition	Yes	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x54b644…
10-20 14:50:20	California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x7d1930…
10-20 14:49:08	California Higher Local Tax Vote Threshold Proposition	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xacd7c7…
10-20 14:48:30	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	96¢	$45	0xe0f153…
10-20 14:47:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	500	77¢	$384	0xc48a5d…
10-20 14:46:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	294	88¢	$258	0x53200c…
10-20 14:43:59	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	10,000	92¢	$9,200	0x85e8d8…
10-18 07:24:56	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	264	92¢	$242	0x574ffc…
10-18 07:04:38	California voter ID referendum passes?	No	BUY	621	81¢	$502	0xcdf09c…
10-17 00:52:53	will ethereum reach 2800 in october 2026	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x514ff0…
10-17 00:52:42	Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in October?	No	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0x762809…
10-17 00:51:41	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 12-18?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x7a94b2…
10-17 00:51:09	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	No	BUY	300	71¢	$213	0x7c94af…
10-17 00:50:23	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	BUY	594	82¢	$487	0x058cfd…
10-05 14:55:01	will bitcoin dip to 84k on october 5 2026	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x7df93d…
10-05 14:53:34	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $510 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	30	73¢	$22	0x74ac3c…
10-05 14:53:17	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $510 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xc23c14…
10-05 14:52:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	BUY	120	95¢	$114	0x686533…
10-05 14:51:19	Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 October 5-11?	No	BUY	250	87¢	$218	0x8351d5…
10-05 14:50:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 5-11?	No	BUY	250	86¢	$215	0xa01e19…
10-05 14:50:38	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 5-11?	No	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0x4ac967…
10-04 23:03:07	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	No	BUY	150	67¢	$100	0x351945…
10-04 23:02:10	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 5	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xdbf5cd…
10-04 23:01:41	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 9	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x03073a…
10-04 23:01:31	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 12	Yes	BUY	77	92¢	$71	0x3010e5…
10-03 07:43:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0x02888b…
10-02 03:22:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	No	BUY	300	78¢	$234	0xb206d8…
10-02 03:20:29	Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x9469d0…
10-02 03:20:06	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x3fca6f…
10-02 03:19:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xcdee9a…
10-02 03:19:00	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $380 in October?	No	BUY	496	75¢	$372	0x6fd2ce…
10-01 05:31:12	will googl reach 400 in october 2026	No	BUY	1,490	80¢	$1,192	0x8206b1…
10-01 05:29:50	will bitcoin dip to 82k september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	150	65¢	$98	0xb86ae4…
10-01 05:27:14	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	Yes	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0x492d71…
10-01 05:26:45	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 7	Yes	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x7cf00b…
10-01 05:25:03	will googl reach 365 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xb6d3ef…
10-01 05:23:08	will bitcoin dip to 80k september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	75	88¢	$66	0x4a29ba…
10-01 05:22:51	will ethereum dip to 2600 september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x0cc255…
09-30 00:19:12	will ethereum dip to 2500 september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	366	82¢	$300	0x7d2478…
09-30 00:18:30	will bitcoin dip to 80k september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xe776fd…
09-28 08:13:02	will msft dip to 495 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0xbfcaca…
09-28 08:08:26	will msft dip to 495 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0xa207d6…
09-28 08:03:11	Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 in September?	No	BUY	150	88¢	$132	0xa8ea14…
09-28 08:01:11	will bitcoin dip to 78k september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x49dd07…
09-22 05:32:25	will ethereum dip to 2500 september 21 27 2026	No	BUY	230	83¢	$191	0x1cb74c…
09-21 07:26:14	will ethereum dip to 2400 september 21 27 2026	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x464af5…
09-21 07:25:33	Will Micron (MU) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	212	93¢	$197	0xfcd949…
09-21 07:25:17	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $930 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xb22d35…
09-21 07:25:02	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $900 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x4f1fdc…
09-21 07:23:48	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $472.50 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	250	86¢	$215	0x098a5c…
09-21 07:23:06	will bitcoin dip to 76k september 21 27 2026	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x5f7188…
09-18 23:03:48	will ethereum dip to 2400 in september 2026 from september 17	No	BUY	683	72¢	$491	0x139ab8…
09-18 23:03:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?	No	BUY	539	78¢	$420	0x8fb3a1…
09-15 11:38:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 September 14-20?	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0xcf8766…
09-15 10:59:30	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 September 14-20?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xebbddd…
09-15 06:42:00	will ethereum dip to 2300 september 14 20 2026	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x8eec00…
09-15 06:41:28	will bitcoin dip to 74k september 14 20 2026	No	BUY	150	68¢	$102	0xb3d87f…
09-14 05:43:49	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in September?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x8cd60c…
09-14 05:43:42	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in September?	No	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0x5c92c8…
09-14 05:43:21	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in September?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xd39b3d…
09-14 05:42:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	No	BUY	400	79¢	$316	0x508c59…
09-14 05:40:55	will bitcoin dip to 72k september 14 20 2026	No	BUY	150	88¢	$132	0x5266b6…
09-14 01:38:28	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $465 in September?	No	BUY	347	76¢	$263	0xd68b41…
09-14 01:38:13	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $450 in September?	No	BUY	45	92¢	$41	0x57ca6a…
09-14 01:37:37	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $360 in September?	No	BUY	141	78¢	$110	0x6a2791…
09-14 01:35:57	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xdbcaab…
09-14 01:18:25	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,050 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x012921…
09-14 01:17:49	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $350 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x201dd3…
09-14 01:17:37	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	549	95¢	$522	0xbb0ec7…
09-14 01:16:10	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $472.50 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xde666f…
09-14 01:15:43	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $480 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0xaa6dcd…
09-14 01:15:07	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $183 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	98¢	$6	0x68d0d5…
09-14 01:14:48	Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $189 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xa55263…