Frayed-Predecessor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.87K

Unrealized P&L

-$207

Hit rate

66.0%

Resolved

139

Trades

809

lifetime

Volume

$21.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

$145

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-24 18:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Other

64% 27% +$1,310

Politics

22% 38% +$3,051

Tech

7% 20% -$602

Crypto

5% 9% -$550

Sports

2% 0% -$344

Pop-Culture

0% 50% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,200	$234	8¢	$102	-$132	06-30 23:04
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	+955	$129	4¢	$35	-$94	07-02 22:51
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	Yes	+250	$65	2¢	$5	-$60	10-24 18:04
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	-732	-$81	0¢	$-3	+$79	07-24 10:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	44	$2.2K	2,133	2,133	+0	Yes	+$734	06-23 11:32
will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	169	$1.6K	1,257	1,257	+0	No	+$278	06-25 16:16
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	3	$1.0K	750	750	+0	No	+$420	05-24 16:46
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$978	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$880	05-05 19:50
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	5	$772	500	500	+0	No	+$162	06-29 09:50
will paradex launch a token on march 5	7	$737	3,115	1,115	+2,000	Yes	+$592	03-05 16:07
Fed rate hike in 2026?	9	$720	0	1,000	-1,000	Yes	-$280	07-24 19:45
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	12	$598	700	700	+0	Yes	+$240	06-23 11:07
will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve by january 31 2026 849 849 957 245	5	$540	1,900	344	+1,556	Yes	+$93	01-30 06:16
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	12	$540	0	840	-840	Yes	+$540	05-17 08:38
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	18	$524	600	600	+0	open	—	07-21 08:07
will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	6	$452	250	250	+0	Yes	+$37	06-15 06:12
LAPTOP listed on Kraken within 30 days of TGE?	3	$442	283	283	+0	Yes	-$17	09-09 12:07
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	5	$404	1,199	847	+352	Yes	-$320	06-21 08:48
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	10	$374	1,925	1,925	+0	No	+$300	06-29 09:10
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	2	$354	200	200	+0	Yes	+$26	06-18 14:30
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	2	$330	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$330	05-30 14:24
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$326	200	200	+0	No	+$58	03-26 19:45
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	2	$310	745	372	+372	No	+$278	01-29 12:40
starmer out by june 22 2026	6	$300	324	324	+0	Yes	+$154	06-20 22:24
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$288	200	200	+0	Yes	+$32	03-26 19:45
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor?	83	$282	2,250	0	+2,250	Yes	-$282	06-14 20:12
england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	4	$266	225	225	+0	Yes	+$181	07-05 23:32
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	4	$265	0	482	-482	Yes	-$217	05-19 17:52
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$265	2,500	0	+2,500	No	-$265	06-15 21:29
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	7	$265	2,150	0	+2,150	No	-$265	06-11 12:56
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more?	9	$254	432	0	+432	Yes	-$254	06-18 14:03
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	9	$253	485	485	+0	Yes	+$13	05-13 02:28
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	1	$236	0	251	-251	No	-$15	01-20 06:31
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	3	$234	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	06-30 23:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 18:04:29	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	Yes	BUY	250	26¢	$65	0x96a4ab…
09-15 22:57:13	will warsh say trump during september press conference 20260909	Yes	BUY	277	8¢	$22	0xa64015…
09-15 22:57:04	will warsh say trump during september press conference 20260909	Yes	BUY	703	8¢	$56	0x106827…
09-15 22:56:46	Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during September Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	644	6¢	$39	0x61110c…
09-09 12:08:19	LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	200	65¢	$130	0xdf4e3b…
09-09 12:07:57	LAPTOP listed on Kraken within 30 days of TGE?	Yes	SELL	101	75¢	$76	0xee25c6…
09-09 12:07:46	LAPTOP listed on Kraken within 30 days of TGE?	Yes	SELL	182	75¢	$137	0x084b60…
09-09 10:44:13	LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	47¢	$94	0x765bd0…
09-09 10:43:10	LAPTOP listed on Kraken within 30 days of TGE?	Yes	BUY	283	81¢	$230	0xdf082f…
07-24 19:45:04	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	72¢	$52	0xbf1de9…
07-24 19:44:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	484	72¢	$349	0xd10e3d…
07-24 15:52:28	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	72¢	$20	0x5a9d6f…
07-24 15:51:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	69	72¢	$50	0x0b3083…
07-24 15:02:48	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	215	72¢	$155	0xd01b15…
07-24 12:50:30	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	72¢	$86	0x1f6caa…
07-24 12:37:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0x04322a…
07-24 11:06:25	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0x2f69ed…
07-24 11:06:18	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xf8a4d3…
07-24 10:56:31	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	732	11¢	$81	0x8fbff7…
07-21 08:07:40	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	48¢	$29	0xff1c04…
07-21 00:36:55	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	48¢	$10	0x14a501…
07-21 00:36:19	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	48¢	$240	0xaaa1d5…
07-21 00:35:48	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$1	0x397536…
07-21 00:35:04	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	48¢	$5	0x5484ef…
07-21 00:34:42	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0x2fa3d4…
07-21 00:29:39	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x5adbd3…
07-21 00:29:27	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$1	0x24ce21…
07-21 00:29:07	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x01565d…
07-13 16:48:04	Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	4¢	$11	0x236108…
07-05 23:32:16	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	Yes	SELL	225	100¢	$224	0xe8e291…
07-05 22:59:01	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	Yes	BUY	25	18¢	$5	0x5b06ef…
07-05 22:55:56	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x897922…
07-05 22:54:46	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x7ebff2…
07-05 22:47:26	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	25	22¢	$6	0x625ee7…
07-05 22:45:05	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 assists harry kane gte1	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xa644fe…
07-05 22:43:44	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 goals harry kane gte2	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x78049f…
07-05 22:43:14	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	75	22¢	$16	0x8d867c…
07-05 22:41:29	Mexico vs. England: Neither team to score first?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xd710df…
07-05 22:41:07	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team total away 2pt5	Over	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x7df73b…
07-04 00:32:55	Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$8	0x86121f…
07-04 00:32:04	Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	216	10¢	$22	0x8c025b…
07-04 00:31:58	Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0x7c26e3…
07-04 00:31:58	Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	78	10¢	$8	0x6f2616…
07-04 00:31:58	Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	104	10¢	$10	0x2732e2…
07-04 00:31:46	Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	51	10¢	$5	0x0efaaa…
07-04 00:31:44	Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	49	10¢	$5	0x6c4b17…
07-03 02:08:29	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$43	0x07d260…
07-02 22:51:02	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	65	13¢	$8	0xd14b03…
07-02 16:11:58	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	35	13¢	$5	0xd5af57…
07-02 13:25:08	taylor swift x travis kelce get married by july 3	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x3544d4…
07-02 11:38:44	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x2c97ab…
06-30 23:04:05	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0xdae9a2…
06-30 05:03:17	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x7f2ae9…
06-29 10:55:14	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 23 29	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$4	0xfc28f5…
06-29 09:51:05	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 23 29	Yes	BUY	600	2¢	$9	0xb90ef7…
06-29 09:50:08	Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	SELL	124	90¢	$112	0x270a5a…
06-29 09:29:47	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 23 29	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x03e265…
06-29 09:10:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	26	18¢	$5	0xfe6bd5…
06-29 09:02:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	59	17¢	$10	0xdc6a72…
06-29 08:59:55	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 23 29	Yes	BUY	1,353	1¢	$17	0x431aa5…
06-29 08:56:17	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 23 29	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$22	0xd8a116…
06-29 08:50:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xa88669…
06-29 08:31:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	120	18¢	$21	0xa50f3a…
06-29 08:15:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,100	18¢	$192	0xe4e826…
06-29 07:56:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	375	18¢	$66	0x6d045e…
06-29 07:11:14	Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x53765f…
06-29 06:57:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$35	0x71e77a…
06-29 06:49:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	26	17¢	$5	0x96bd7c…
06-29 05:56:49	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	No	BUY	300	5¢	$16	0x4b4e74…
06-28 10:48:10	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	No	SELL	227	6¢	$14	0x3374ef…
06-28 02:00:43	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0x18b0fb…
06-28 01:56:44	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x40fa03…
06-28 01:31:46	Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	SELL	201	98¢	$197	0xe8a71d…
06-27 20:57:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x5f7d57…
06-27 17:27:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	No	BUY	450	15¢	$67	0x2b6034…
06-27 17:23:40	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 btts	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x2a5f0f…
06-27 17:22:46	England leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x8f1cad…
06-26 21:51:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	No	BUY	514	16¢	$82	0x34232d…
06-26 21:51:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	No	BUY	300	16¢	$48	0x48265c…
06-26 21:51:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	No	BUY	186	16¢	$30	0x0f5b6a…
06-26 20:08:01	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	No	SELL	250	6¢	$15	0x846815…
06-26 20:07:32	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	No	SELL	25	6¢	$1	0x2fe4ea…
06-26 17:10:32	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	No	SELL	416	6¢	$23	0x335202…
06-26 12:25:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	No	BUY	300	26¢	$78	0xaaf3dc…
06-26 12:13:22	Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	SELL	125	90¢	$112	0x33989d…
06-26 12:13:05	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0x2935a3…
06-26 12:13:04	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	55	13¢	$7	0x3e9292…
06-26 08:05:41	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	No	SELL	36	5¢	$2	0x4696d7…
06-26 02:57:17	will anyone say god during rick and morty e6 s9 20260623151737479	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x10449b…
06-25 23:35:07	will anyone say god during rick and morty e6 s9 20260623151737479	Yes	BUY	44	88¢	$39	0x41edec…
06-25 23:14:46	Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	269	0¢	$1	0xe25ed7…
06-25 20:39:38	Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	0¢	$0	0xce7520…
06-25 20:39:38	Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,314	0¢	$3	0xce22e6…
06-25 20:39:38	Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xaa85c0…
06-25 20:39:37	Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	0¢	$1	0x60bbdb…
06-25 17:57:10	Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x046e87…
06-25 16:16:29	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	322	76¢	$245	0xd9c8e3…
06-25 16:04:52	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x9510d0…
06-25 16:03:20	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xf0b00e…
06-25 16:02:01	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xc0de31…