Frayed-Predecessor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.21K

Unrealized P&L

-$31

Hit rate

96.4%

Resolved

Trades

534

lifetime

Volume

$13.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

$339

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-21 08:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

59% 0% $-7

Politics

25% 100% +$2,216

Tech

11% — —

Crypto

4% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 84 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+540	$207	44¢	$240	+$34	07-21 08:07
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	+955	$129	8¢	$72	$-58	07-02 22:51
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+200	$34	14¢	$27	$-7	06-30 23:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	169	$1.6K	1,257	1,257	+0	open	—	06-25 16:16
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	3	$1.0K	750	750	+0	open	—	05-24 16:46
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$978	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-05 19:50
will paradex launch a token on march 5	7	$737	3,115	1,115	+2,000	open	—	03-05 16:07
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	12	$598	700	700	+0	open	—	06-23 11:07
will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve by january 31 2026 849 849 957 245	5	$540	1,900	344	+1,556	open	—	01-30 06:16
will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	5	$418	250	216	+34	open	—	06-15 06:12
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	5	$404	1,199	847	+352	open	—	06-21 08:48
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$326	200	200	+0	open	—	03-26 19:45
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	2	$310	745	372	+372	open	—	01-29 12:40
starmer out by june 22 2026	6	$300	324	324	+0	open	—	06-20 22:24
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$288	200	200	+0	open	—	03-26 19:45
england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	4	$266	225	225	+0	open	—	07-05 23:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	7	$265	2,150	0	+2,150	open	—	06-11 12:56
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor?	52	$264	2,121	0	+2,121	open	—	06-14 20:12
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	10	$264	600	60	+540	open	—	07-21 08:07
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	9	$253	485	485	+0	open	—	05-13 02:28
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	1	$236	0	251	-251	open	—	01-20 06:31
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	3	$233	200	200	+0	open	—	04-25 20:49
burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	16	$219	1,255	955	+300	open	—	06-29 05:56
will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	7	$212	150	150	+0	open	—	06-17 01:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	5	$184	2,400	0	+2,400	Yes	+$2,216	04-10 09:24
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	3	$160	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	06-26 21:51
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	6	$157	543	0	+543	open	—	06-12 14:06
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	3	$153	800	0	+800	open	—	06-27 20:57
spx opens up or down on february 5 2026	2	$150	100	100	+0	open	—	02-05 21:20
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	8	$144	3,638	0	+3,638	open	—	06-08 11:30
will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	8	$142	110	110	+0	open	—	06-18 10:01
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	1	$130	1,002	0	+1,002	open	—	05-17 06:51
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	10	$129	955	0	+955	open	—	07-02 22:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 08:07:40	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	48¢	$29	0xff1c04…
07-05 23:32:16	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	Yes	SELL	225	100¢	$224	0xe8e291…
07-05 22:59:01	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	Yes	BUY	25	18¢	$5	0x5b06ef…
07-05 22:55:56	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x897922…
07-05 22:54:46	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x7ebff2…
07-05 22:47:26	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	25	22¢	$6	0x625ee7…
07-05 22:45:05	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 assists harry kane gte1	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xa644fe…
07-05 22:43:44	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 goals harry kane gte2	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x78049f…
07-05 22:43:14	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	75	22¢	$16	0x8d867c…
07-05 22:41:07	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team total away 2pt5	Over	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x7df73b…
07-03 02:08:29	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$43	0x07d260…
07-02 22:51:02	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	65	13¢	$8	0xd14b03…
07-02 16:11:58	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	35	13¢	$5	0xd5af57…
07-02 13:25:08	taylor swift x travis kelce get married by july 3	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x3544d4…
07-02 11:38:44	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x2c97ab…
06-30 23:04:05	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0xdae9a2…
06-30 05:03:17	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x7f2ae9…
06-29 10:55:14	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 23 29	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$4	0xfc28f5…
06-29 09:51:05	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 23 29	Yes	BUY	600	2¢	$9	0xb90ef7…
06-29 09:29:47	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 23 29	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x03e265…
06-29 08:59:55	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 23 29	Yes	BUY	1,353	1¢	$17	0x431aa5…
06-29 08:56:17	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 23 29	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$22	0xd8a116…
06-29 05:56:49	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	No	BUY	300	5¢	$16	0x4b4e74…
06-28 10:48:10	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	No	SELL	227	6¢	$14	0x3374ef…
06-28 02:00:43	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0x18b0fb…
06-28 01:56:44	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x40fa03…
06-27 20:57:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x5f7d57…
06-27 17:27:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	No	BUY	450	15¢	$67	0x2b6034…
06-27 17:23:40	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 btts	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x2a5f0f…
06-26 21:51:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	No	BUY	514	16¢	$82	0x34232d…
06-26 21:51:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	No	BUY	300	16¢	$48	0x48265c…
06-26 21:51:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	No	BUY	186	16¢	$30	0x0f5b6a…
06-26 20:08:01	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	No	SELL	250	6¢	$15	0x846815…
06-26 20:07:32	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	No	SELL	25	6¢	$1	0x2fe4ea…
06-26 17:10:32	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	No	SELL	416	6¢	$23	0x335202…
06-26 12:25:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	No	BUY	300	26¢	$78	0xaaf3dc…
06-26 12:13:05	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0x2935a3…
06-26 12:13:04	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	55	13¢	$7	0x3e9292…
06-26 08:05:41	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	No	SELL	36	5¢	$2	0x4696d7…
06-26 02:57:17	will anyone say god during rick and morty e6 s9 20260623151737479	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x10449b…
06-25 23:35:07	will anyone say god during rick and morty e6 s9 20260623151737479	Yes	BUY	44	88¢	$39	0x41edec…
06-25 16:16:29	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	322	76¢	$245	0xd9c8e3…
06-25 16:04:52	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x9510d0…
06-25 16:03:20	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xf0b00e…
06-25 16:02:01	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xc0de31…
06-25 15:54:59	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x4caa8f…
06-25 15:46:43	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xd72844…
06-25 15:41:02	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x52d964…
06-25 15:35:14	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xb0bb66…
06-25 15:34:49	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0xdafd14…
06-25 15:34:02	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0xb0d365…
06-25 15:32:47	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0xdbaf43…
06-25 15:32:16	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x811426…
06-25 15:30:43	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x67bcf1…
06-25 15:28:55	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xe7b3cc…
06-25 15:27:59	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	28	76¢	$21	0x0ed42e…
06-25 15:27:01	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0xcf9a16…
06-25 15:26:23	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x22d9c7…
06-25 15:25:43	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x213f83…
06-25 15:21:53	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x03711b…
06-25 15:21:31	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x2b10e4…
06-25 15:20:40	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0xe044fb…
06-25 15:20:38	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	12	76¢	$9	0x607328…
06-25 15:19:11	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x7f4fa6…
06-25 15:17:34	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xfd9ff5…
06-25 15:17:34	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0xbfa9d2…
06-25 15:17:34	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	9	76¢	$6	0x6dd233…
06-25 15:17:34	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	6	76¢	$4	0x06eba1…
06-25 15:17:34	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	19	76¢	$15	0x029a5c…
06-25 15:17:32	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	71	76¢	$54	0xd26d70…
06-25 15:17:32	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	143	76¢	$108	0xafe08f…
06-25 15:17:32	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xac9ecf…
06-25 15:02:34	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	119	76¢	$91	0x36c2f3…
06-25 12:40:22	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0xbe45fb…
06-25 12:40:20	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	269	77¢	$207	0x63953e…
06-25 08:18:46	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x048520…
06-24 12:55:44	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	74	76¢	$56	0x4c8a69…
06-24 12:15:07	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xcee1b0…
06-24 12:13:56	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xb4f1e5…
06-24 12:02:44	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xa60aa8…
06-24 11:55:34	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xae1968…
06-24 11:45:25	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x768ee2…
06-24 11:36:23	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x39538c…
06-24 03:33:10	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	No	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x2c7232…
06-24 02:54:44	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x61db9d…
06-24 02:44:47	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x384259…
06-24 02:44:47	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x05fbcf…
06-24 02:44:44	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x7e1e7b…
06-24 02:44:43	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xb5bd43…
06-24 02:34:49	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xc13086…
06-24 02:34:47	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xa449bc…
06-24 02:34:44	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xaf86e6…
06-24 02:34:43	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xb02799…
06-24 02:34:41	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xc7b6f0…
06-24 02:32:59	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0xf28040…
06-24 02:24:50	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x5538df…
06-24 02:24:49	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xd27aea…
06-24 02:24:47	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe028ea…
06-24 02:24:46	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x91fce4…
06-24 02:24:44	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x961779…