Distorted-Twig — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$383

Unrealized P&L

+$11

Hit rate

50.5%

Resolved

174

Trades

385

lifetime

Volume

$3.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$49

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 11-07 14:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 63 days

Categories

Other

69% 70% +$11

Politics

16% 36% -$315

Crypto

15% 24% -$79

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the biggest earthquake on November 6, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	No	+23	$19	95¢	$22	+$3	11-06 10:39
Will the biggest earthquake on November 6, 2026 be under 5.3?	No	+20	$13	100¢	$20	+$7	11-06 10:39
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+8	$7	98¢	$7	+$0	09-16 03:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be 20 or more inches of snow in nyc this weekend	8	$399	346	346	+0	No	-$109	02-24 06:10
will russia join the board of peace	2	$396	283	283	+0	No	+$39	02-02 21:54
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	3	$310	59,496	442	+59,054	No	-$310	10-05 03:22
Will Russia target Kyiv on November 6, 2026?	2	$157	86	86	+0	open	—	11-07 14:26
will there be 1820 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	5	$101	172	157	+16	Yes	+$37	02-24 01:09
Will the biggest earthquake on October 25, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	5	$96	55	55	+0	No	-$2	10-25 02:11
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 28, 2026?	2	$49	35	35	+0	No	+$18	10-28 22:14
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 30, 2026?	2	$45	26	26	+0	Yes	+$5	10-30 05:16
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 26, 2026?	2	$43	24	24	+0	Yes	+$3	10-26 19:45
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 27, 2026?	2	$42	23	23	+0	Yes	+$2	10-27 01:28
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	2	$41	23	23	+0	Yes	+$3	10-29 17:55
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026?	2	$40	22	22	+0	Yes	+$0	10-31 16:27
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	2	$38	22	22	+0	Yes	-$2	10-23 17:23
Will the biggest earthquake on October 30, 2026 be under 5.3?	2	$37	37	37	+0	Yes	-$13	10-30 19:37
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	8	$36	148	140	+8	open	—	09-16 03:56
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	7	$36	24	24	+0	Yes	$0	10-06 19:06
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	7	$30	25	25	+0	open	—	10-06 18:54
will italy join the board of peace	2	$30	17	17	+0	No	$0	02-02 21:55
will there be 10 12 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	2	$29	16	16	+0	Yes	+$1	01-26 18:59
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	7	$29	39	39	+0	open	—	10-06 18:52
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	7	$27	27	27	+0	open	—	10-06 19:09
will there be 12 14 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	2	$26	67	67	+0	No	+$2	01-26 04:38
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	7	$26	30	30	+0	open	—	10-06 21:51
Will the biggest earthquake on October 25, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	1	$25	29	0	+29	No	+$4	10-25 02:10
Will the biggest earthquake on October 25, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	1	$25	29	0	+29	No	+$4	10-25 02:10
Will the biggest earthquake on October 25, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	1	$24	29	0	+29	No	+$5	10-25 02:10
Will the biggest earthquake on October 25, 2026 be under 5.3?	1	$24	29	0	+29	No	+$5	10-25 02:10
Will the biggest earthquake on October 22, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	1	$24	25	0	+25	No	+$1	10-22 14:41
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026?	4	$23	12	12	+0	Yes	+$0	10-09 16:19
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	2	$23	17	17	+0	Yes	+$11	10-31 16:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 14:26:57	Will Russia target Kyiv on November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	94¢	$81	0x60b7b2…
11-06 13:38:00	Will Russia target Kyiv on November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	88¢	$76	0xd28d72…
11-06 10:39:55	Will the biggest earthquake on November 6, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	No	BUY	23	82¢	$19	0xb5890f…
11-06 10:39:55	Will the biggest earthquake on November 6, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	No	BUY	21	88¢	$18	0x2784dc…
11-06 10:39:49	Will the biggest earthquake on November 6, 2026 be under 5.3?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x8d9c39…
11-05 06:54:52	Will Russia target Kyiv on November 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0xce544a…
11-04 23:18:49	Will Russia target Kyiv on November 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x6dbebc…
10-31 16:29:58	Will Russia capture Svitle by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	98¢	$6	0xa0f0c6…
10-31 16:28:51	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0xc8b733…
10-31 16:27:42	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	92¢	$20	0x301db8…
10-31 02:18:45	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x268207…
10-30 21:31:49	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	Yes	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0xb0f7fa…
10-30 21:31:49	Will Russia capture Svitle by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	93¢	$6	0x222067…
10-30 19:37:49	Will the biggest earthquake on October 30, 2026 be under 5.3?	No	SELL	37	32¢	$12	0x2b447d…
10-30 19:36:49	Will the biggest earthquake on October 30, 2026 be under 5.3?	No	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x67e3c8…
10-30 15:18:57	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	68¢	$6	0xc31ccf…
10-30 05:16:39	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0xc80e37…
10-30 02:54:15	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0xb6adc8…
10-29 21:22:54	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	BUY	17	35¢	$6	0x1ab0bb…
10-29 19:00:54	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x8b2e26…
10-29 17:55:25	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	97¢	$22	0x374324…
10-29 05:45:20	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	84¢	$19	0x124b04…
10-28 22:14:05	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 28, 2026?	No	SELL	35	96¢	$34	0x830a76…
10-28 19:30:25	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	35	45¢	$16	0x21c23e…
10-27 01:28:48	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	97¢	$22	0xe8a5cb…
10-27 01:27:30	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0xc57b35…
10-26 19:45:44	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	97¢	$23	0xdb7fad…
10-26 07:36:51	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xe82af9…
10-25 06:42:05	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x17a0b4…
10-25 02:11:12	Will the biggest earthquake on October 25, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	No	SELL	7	87¢	$6	0x420cd9…
10-25 02:11:09	Will the biggest earthquake on October 25, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x2fd7b8…
10-25 02:11:06	Will the biggest earthquake on October 25, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	No	BUY	27	90¢	$24	0xbde6f9…
10-25 02:10:59	Will the biggest earthquake on October 25, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	No	SELL	28	86¢	$24	0xff77d7…
10-25 02:10:57	Will the biggest earthquake on October 25, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	No	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0x78e598…
10-25 02:10:57	Will the biggest earthquake on October 25, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	No	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0x4154eb…
10-25 02:10:39	Will the biggest earthquake on October 25, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	No	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0x6fd34c…
10-25 02:10:39	Will the biggest earthquake on October 25, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	No	BUY	29	84¢	$24	0x20f29d…
10-25 02:10:39	Will the biggest earthquake on October 25, 2026 be under 5.3?	No	BUY	29	84¢	$24	0x074710…
10-25 01:37:23	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x38cb8e…
10-24 03:30:50	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	97¢	$7	0xdc371b…
10-24 00:42:32	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0x3aa2da…
10-23 17:23:57	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	81¢	$18	0x7ecab8…
10-23 06:21:21	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	97¢	$12	0x031ab8…
10-23 04:55:05	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	48¢	$6	0x594da5…
10-22 23:23:03	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0xcddaa4…
10-22 14:41:06	Will the biggest earthquake on October 22, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x0898ae…
10-20 07:19:52	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0xae65db…
10-19 23:54:33	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x3cd4f7…
10-19 07:55:38	Will the biggest earthquake on October 19, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x4378b5…
10-19 07:55:33	Will the biggest earthquake on October 19, 2026 be under 5.3?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x5a2ae4…
10-19 00:01:30	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0xc37f33…
10-18 23:56:53	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x2b03d4…
10-18 19:58:39	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0xe3441e…
10-18 06:03:41	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0x59fb99…
10-17 11:02:00	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	Yes	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x644222…
10-17 01:35:59	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	Yes	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0xb6dfb2…
10-16 15:37:21	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xee5c81…
10-15 21:12:36	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x42e66a…
10-15 20:16:36	will ukraine target moscow on october 15 2026	Yes	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x55f4cd…
10-15 20:16:04	will ukraine target moscow on october 15 2026	Yes	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0xc372bc…
10-12 04:00:38	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x651fc3…
10-12 03:44:11	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xd30d26…
10-12 02:43:09	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0xcd70e1…
10-09 16:19:54	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xffbf43…
10-09 08:43:51	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x4c0377…
10-08 22:09:48	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x133d9e…
10-08 21:09:41	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x570a09…
10-06 21:51:59	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	15	43¢	$6	0x7c50d2…
10-06 21:51:48	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	15	43¢	$6	0x38acd5…
10-06 21:51:21	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0xd9c63e…
10-06 21:51:11	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x33f007…
10-06 21:50:57	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x6ecf57…
10-06 21:50:45	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x7e2909…
10-06 21:50:35	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x6ecf9b…
10-06 19:09:56	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	50¢	$7	0xd38e9c…
10-06 19:09:44	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	50¢	$7	0xdd73ad…
10-06 19:09:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x37f9ca…
10-06 19:09:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x98fafc…
10-06 19:08:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xd4c06c…
10-06 19:08:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x48183d…
10-06 19:08:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x66d539…
10-06 19:06:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	12	73¢	$9	0xcd2d39…
10-06 19:06:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	12	73¢	$9	0x9c6923…
10-06 19:05:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x938916…
10-06 19:05:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x9649e2…
10-06 19:05:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x5b05a5…
10-06 19:05:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xf26c71…
10-06 19:04:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x4be8c6…
10-06 18:54:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	59¢	$7	0xc7aacb…
10-06 18:54:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	59¢	$7	0x3cb4cd…
10-06 18:54:02	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x384b90…
10-06 18:53:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xcaa4ff…
10-06 18:53:38	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x733253…
10-06 18:53:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x0c4906…
10-06 18:53:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x4a5e65…
10-06 18:52:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xff707a…
10-06 18:52:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x2c1d10…
10-06 18:51:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	7	37¢	$3	0xb136e2…
10-06 18:51:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xfc84a6…
10-06 18:51:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x2aeb45…