Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

36.5%

Resolved

Trades

219

lifetime

Volume

$1.99K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$173

11 positions

First seen

2026-10-15

last 10-31 02:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

61% 32% +$8

Politics

28% 20% -$23

Tech

6% — —

Pop-Culture

3% — —

Sports

2% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	+51	$46	96¢	$49	+$4	10-30 11:11
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	No	+40	$29	82¢	$33	+$3	10-20 07:15
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Yes	+51	$31	53¢	$27	-$4	10-30 13:43
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	+21	$18	86¢	$18	+$0	10-28 06:39
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	+54	$14	28¢	$15	+$0	10-30 20:28
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	+51	$9	18¢	$9	+$0	10-31 00:56
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	+15	$6	49¢	$8	+$1	10-28 07:10
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	Yes	+40	$10	18¢	$7	-$3	10-23 06:39
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Yes	+33	$7	18¢	$6	-$1	10-29 04:10
Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	+41	$7	2¢	$1	-$6	10-28 15:00
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	+1	$0	1¢	$0	+$0	10-28 13:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?	8	$128	319	319	+0	open	—	10-19 00:52
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	2	$55	54	54	+0	open	—	10-20 08:57
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	4	$49	95	15	+80	open	—	10-23 06:39
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	1	$46	51	0	+51	open	—	10-30 11:11
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	2	$37	51	51	+0	open	—	10-19 00:51
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	3	$36	28	28	+0	Yes	$0	10-23 06:21
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	2	$34	20	20	+0	No	$0	10-23 06:22
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	3	$32	21	21	+0	open	—	10-23 06:24
Will Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) record the most assists in the 2026-27 Premier League season?	2	$31	20	20	+0	open	—	10-23 06:25
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	1	$31	51	0	+51	open	—	10-30 13:43
Will Dota 2 average more Steam players in November than in October?	2	$30	21	21	+0	open	—	10-23 06:19
Will Drake release a new album by December 31?	1	$30	36	0	+36	open	—	10-27 09:27
Will Drake perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	1	$30	34	0	+34	open	—	10-27 14:50
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 19 2026?	3	$29	22	22	+0	No	+$1	10-19 12:32
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?	1	$28	51	0	+51	open	—	10-30 12:16
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?	3	$28	22	17	+5	open	—	10-20 15:55
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?	2	$26	41	0	+41	open	—	10-29 04:45
SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	1	$24	34	0	+34	open	—	10-29 15:02
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	1	$23	51	0	+51	open	—	10-30 02:06
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	1	$23	51	0	+51	open	—	10-30 12:55
will whalefall score at least 78 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	3	$23	100	0	+100	No	-$23	10-15 04:00
Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	3	$23	21	21	+0	open	—	10-23 06:35
Will the Republicans win Greenville County in the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	2	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	10-23 06:33
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.0 on October 30, 2026?	1	$20	21	0	+21	Yes	+$1	10-26 15:25
Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	10-29 02:13
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $337.50 Week of October 19 2026?	2	$20	21	21	+0	No	$0	10-19 12:32
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-02 House election by 25%-30%?	1	$19	29	0	+29	open	—	10-28 14:51
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	1	$19	21	0	+21	open	—	10-28 17:23
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-16 House election by 30%-35%?	1	$19	28	0	+28	open	—	10-29 02:57
Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be above 4%?	2	$19	21	7	+14	open	—	10-26 08:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 02:38:06	Will the Democratic Party win the MN-02 House seat?	No	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xfd4ffb…
10-31 00:56:15	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	51	18¢	$9	0x3ddbef…
10-30 20:28:40	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	27¢	$14	0x2635f8…
10-30 18:53:15	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election by 12%-15%?	No	BUY	21	81¢	$17	0x13de4f…
10-30 18:37:40	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xea59cb…
10-30 17:41:52	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	10¢	$5	0x7bfde1…
10-30 16:39:30	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	No	BUY	1	60¢	$0	0x4a3bfa…
10-30 15:22:37	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	51	12¢	$6	0x792406…
10-30 14:44:30	Will Eric Oncins advance to the Round of 16 in Men's Singles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	Yes	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0x3e6ed3…
10-30 14:44:28	Will Eric Oncins advance to the Round of 16 in Men's Singles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x6548a5…
10-30 14:21:46	Will Hong Kit Wong advance to the Round of 16 in Men's Singles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	No	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0x9bf246…
10-30 14:21:46	Will Hong Kit Wong advance to the Round of 16 in Men's Singles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x89c9af…
10-30 13:43:57	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	60¢	$31	0x12e34d…
10-30 12:55:34	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	BUY	51	46¢	$23	0xfa5df0…
10-30 12:47:37	Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	No	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0x296ed4…
10-30 12:16:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	51	55¢	$28	0x2fe67c…
10-30 12:08:28	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	No	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0x7e38e3…
10-30 11:59:40	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	51	16¢	$8	0x1d64d2…
10-30 11:21:57	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xe78300…
10-30 11:21:57	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	No	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0x4b1cba…
10-30 11:11:43	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	BUY	51	89¢	$46	0xeb7a61…
10-30 10:36:24	Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	65¢	$14	0x07c28e…
10-30 06:54:24	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2028 elections?	No	BUY	1	35¢	$0	0x9b9123…
10-30 06:43:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	35	24¢	$8	0x36b02b…
10-30 06:27:42	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	No	BUY	21	82¢	$17	0xe91ad9…
10-30 03:52:10	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	21	55¢	$12	0x9c163c…
10-30 02:40:09	Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	22¢	$5	0x38fc6e…
10-30 02:06:21	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	51	46¢	$23	0xf4376b…
10-29 15:21:01	Will there be no Gemini Carbon release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2f3b6f…
10-29 15:02:31	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	34	72¢	$24	0x55f9bf…
10-29 11:38:37	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-11 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	24	71¢	$17	0x8536b1…
10-29 11:23:44	Will the Republicans win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	40¢	$8	0xe68898…
10-29 04:45:46	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?	No	BUY	21	64¢	$13	0x017825…
10-29 04:19:50	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	43¢	$9	0xba8224…
10-29 04:10:23	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	33	21¢	$7	0xe964de…
10-29 03:33:25	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x253826…
10-29 03:11:16	Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	21	8¢	$2	0xd0334c…
10-29 03:06:58	Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $10M and $12M?	No	BUY	21	66¢	$14	0x813608…
10-29 02:57:32	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-16 House election by 30%-35%?	No	BUY	28	68¢	$19	0x8e479c…
10-29 02:23:44	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Connecticut be between 1,300,000 and 1,400,000?	Yes	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0x985c42…
10-29 02:13:49	Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x15d4f6…
10-28 22:33:43	Will the biggest earthquake on October 30, 2026 be 6.1 or more?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x8a681a…
10-28 22:10:08	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0x751dd7…
10-28 21:47:11	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xca4711…
10-28 21:43:46	Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	No	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0x4290f8…
10-28 20:44:37	Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x23478b…
10-28 20:09:38	Will Brice Turang lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in runs scored?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x0dd573…
10-28 20:07:10	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AL-07 House election by 30%-35%?	No	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xbfb500…
10-28 20:05:59	Will the Democrats win Arizona in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xaae6bc…
10-28 19:34:26	Will Team Spirit win PARI Universe?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x502c89…
10-28 19:00:01	Netanyahu out before the next Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xd07918…
10-28 18:59:59	Netanyahu out before the next Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x18c584…
10-28 18:42:25	Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	21	41¢	$9	0xb09c00…
10-28 18:41:46	Will Together be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	21	43¢	$9	0xaa29c5…
10-28 18:41:40	Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x9f0249…
10-28 18:41:38	Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0xee4a50…
10-28 18:41:26	Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?	No	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0x49291a…
10-28 18:41:07	Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	22¢	$5	0xb1bcf5…
10-28 18:22:11	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-06 House election by 60%-65%?	No	BUY	18	66¢	$12	0x6fc11d…
10-28 18:22:11	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-06 House election by 60%-65%?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$2	0x698395…
10-28 18:17:23	Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	21	68¢	$14	0xcc8634…
10-28 18:15:07	Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	47¢	$11	0xaa086f…
10-28 17:56:01	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 190,000 and 210,000?	Yes	BUY	21	36¢	$8	0x63e8ef…
10-28 17:47:05	Will In-fa become a Violent typhoon?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xfb1535…
10-28 17:47:05	Will In-fa become a Violent typhoon?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xb02840…
10-28 17:43:04	Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	40¢	$8	0xdcd1b2…
10-28 17:23:43	Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	91¢	$19	0x262fd5…
10-28 17:19:58	Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x9bb458…
10-28 17:01:05	Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	28¢	$6	0xe5aca5…
10-28 16:37:38	Will Steve Hilton win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	21	32¢	$7	0x8c9237…
10-28 16:23:55	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-05 House election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	25	69¢	$17	0x15d4f7…
10-28 16:04:55	Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	21	44¢	$9	0x86cec3…
10-28 15:18:29	Will the Republicans win North Carolina in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1	46¢	$0	0x9af6f2…
10-28 15:18:29	Will the Republicans win North Carolina in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x7ec533…
10-28 15:05:35	Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	31¢	$7	0x31156a…
10-28 15:00:56	Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x09e3a6…
10-28 15:00:55	Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x2255a6…
10-28 14:54:13	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?	No	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x70cd6b…
10-28 14:51:37	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-02 House election by 25%-30%?	No	BUY	29	67¢	$19	0xf88b0a…
10-28 14:40:16	Will Raphael Warnock win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	No	BUY	21	81¢	$17	0xfd30f6…
10-28 14:19:10	Muse Charm released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	66¢	$14	0x670830…
10-28 14:05:56	Will Kathy Hochul win Nassau County in the New York governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	28¢	$6	0xcde58a…
10-28 13:55:52	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x9925ed…
10-28 13:12:40	Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x97a853…
10-28 07:19:47	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0x863df4…
10-28 07:11:16	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	21	67¢	$14	0xa4d7f5…
10-28 07:10:40	Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	No	BUY	21	87¢	$18	0x93e137…
10-28 07:10:26	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	15	41¢	$6	0xe44035…
10-28 06:39:25	Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0xe2c8c1…
10-28 06:39:25	Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x63b483…
10-28 06:39:25	Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x489bb7…
10-28 00:51:45	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-07 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	21	63¢	$13	0xe1e381…
10-28 00:47:08	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	26	63¢	$16	0xee02e7…
10-28 00:37:53	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	43¢	$9	0x5f9211…
10-27 18:11:27	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KS-01 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$4	0xd701ac…
10-27 18:09:20	Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	25	24¢	$6	0xebdb05…
10-27 17:28:00	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 97?	Yes	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0x1c170a…
10-27 16:32:27	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98?	No	BUY	21	81¢	$17	0x6981f8…
10-27 16:32:11	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	36	20¢	$7	0x71dade…
10-27 16:26:56	Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	23	49¢	$11	0x7e34a4…