Hairy-Testing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$27

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

71.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$23.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$281

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-01-29

last 09-13 02:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 96% +$9

Other

31% 96% +$8

Sports

17% 90% +$10

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No		+10	$10	100¢	$10	+$0	07-30 02:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	2	$3.8K	1,922	1,900	+22	No	-$2	02-08 12:42
will mistral have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$3.0K	1,497	1,490	+7	No	-$1	02-09 02:18
nba was cle 2026 02 11	9	$2.0K	1,977	0	+1,977	Cavaliers	+$3	02-12 02:55
nba sas lal 2026 02 10	1	$2.0K	1,975	0	+1,975	Spurs	+$2	02-11 05:01
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 280 299	1	$2.0K	1,962	0	+1,962	No	+$2	02-11 09:49
bitcoin above 74k on february 12	1	$2.0K	1,954	0	+1,954	No	+$2	02-12 13:28
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 100 119	3	$1.9K	1,870	0	+1,870	No	+$2	02-06 07:07
will the price of ethereum be between 2400 2500 on february 10	1	$1.9K	1,869	0	+1,869	No	+$2	02-10 06:04
will the price of solana be between 110 120 on february 9	2	$1.6K	1,633	0	+1,633	No	+$2	02-09 02:31
bitcoin above 78k on february 7	1	$1.5K	1,549	0	+1,549	No	+$2	02-07 06:20
solana above 100 on february 8	3	$397	398	0	+398	No	+$1	02-08 12:43
ethereum above 2400 on february 7	1	$265	266	0	+266	No	+$1	02-07 06:18
bitcoin above 78k on february 9	1	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	02-09 02:19
will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on february 7	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	02-07 06:17
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	1	$94	95	0	+95	No	+$1	07-31 05:40
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	1	$70	70	0	+70	No	+$0	04-10 09:07
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	1	$54	55	0	+55	No	+$1	05-24 13:06
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	2	$45	46	0	+46	No	+$1	02-20 12:22
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	1	$41	42	0	+42	No	+$0	04-10 09:15
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 740plus	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	02-02 05:09
will xrp reach 3 in june 2026	1	$36	36	0	+36	No	+$0	06-10 13:16
solana above 110 on february 9	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	02-09 02:19
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 740plus	2	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	01-29 10:58
xrp above 1pt6 on february 10	1	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	02-10 14:11
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$30	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	05-24 07:51
will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	03-17 08:57
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	09-13 02:57
elon musk of tweets march 19 march 21 240plus	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	03-17 08:56
will the price of bitcoin be between 76000 78000 on february 10	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	02-10 06:05
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 80 99	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	01-29 10:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-13 02:57:13	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x297955…
09-13 02:56:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xec9f64…
08-06 13:02:26	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x3d34d9…
08-06 13:02:14	will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf6006f…
07-31 05:40:17	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	95	98¢	$94	0x34fc42…
07-30 02:24:09	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xa62d81…
07-30 02:24:00	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x03a708…
07-30 02:23:50	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe47141…
07-30 02:23:06	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd27623…
06-10 13:16:30	will solana reach 160 in june 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xd9adc6…
06-10 13:16:10	will xrp reach 3 in june 2026	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x3ae0f1…
05-24 13:06:33	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	98¢	$54	0x8cb370…
05-24 07:51:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x32a777…
05-24 07:51:24	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x9beece…
05-24 07:51:17	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x8cd47c…
05-24 07:51:07	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xcd7213…
05-24 07:45:50	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xcde049…
04-10 09:15:41	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$41	0x8c8ef4…
04-10 09:15:05	nba dal sas 2026 04 10	Spurs	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xe49708…
04-10 09:14:19	nba okc den 2026 04 10	Nuggets	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x9ea3d9…
04-10 09:07:05	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xcd263a…
04-10 08:56:47	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x8dda14…
03-17 08:57:27	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 580plus	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xc2715a…
03-17 08:57:05	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x8308b7…
03-17 08:56:53	elon musk of tweets march 19 march 21 240plus	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x34cc9d…
03-17 08:56:39	will solana dip to 20 in march 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb4dd3f…
03-17 08:56:33	will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x3e287a…
02-20 12:22:40	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x652b29…
02-20 12:22:28	will solana reach 200 in february 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xaaf558…
02-20 12:22:18	will ethereum reach 5000 in february 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x881cc5…
02-13 02:10:37	elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 580plus	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xad9269…
02-13 02:10:19	elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 100 119	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa10db9…
02-13 02:08:47	elon musk of tweets february 12 february 14 240plus	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xfe98e5…
02-13 02:08:09	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x535403…
02-13 02:07:39	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 520 539	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xc9b23b…
02-13 02:07:29	will zai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x127025…
02-12 13:28:55	bitcoin above 74k on february 12	No	BUY	1,954	100¢	$1,952	0x213dcb…
02-12 05:54:57	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x08db8c…
02-12 02:55:25	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	1,789	100¢	$1,787	0x65f844…
02-12 02:54:35	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x75785b…
02-12 02:50:15	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0xb940a1…
02-12 02:49:49	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbf66c9…
02-12 02:48:23	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xd3bf58…
02-12 02:47:29	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf4227c…
02-12 02:47:27	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xc99877…
02-12 01:18:29	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x4bd47e…
02-11 09:50:21	nba sas gsw 2026 02 11	Spurs	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xca7502…
02-11 09:50:13	nba mem den 2026 02 11	Nuggets	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x861638…
02-11 09:49:51	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xdad65d…
02-11 09:49:43	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 280 299	No	BUY	1,962	100¢	$1,960	0xd7929d…
02-11 05:01:19	nba sas lal 2026 02 10	Spurs	BUY	1,975	100¢	$1,973	0xcc917a…
02-10 14:11:21	xrp above 1pt6 on february 10	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0xaaecc0…
02-10 14:10:11	will the price of xrp be less than 1pt10 on february 10	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf1bd6f…
02-10 06:05:15	will the price of bitcoin be between 76000 78000 on february 10	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x52f188…
02-10 06:04:49	will the price of ethereum be between 2400 2500 on february 10	No	BUY	1,869	100¢	$1,867	0xb3c701…
02-09 02:31:57	will the price of solana be between 110 120 on february 9	No	BUY	1,234	100¢	$1,233	0x1074f0…
02-09 02:21:01	will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	Yes	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x62fcf6…
02-09 02:19:49	nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	Seahawks	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xe374df…
02-09 02:19:25	solana above 110 on february 9	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x8b66dd…
02-09 02:19:05	bitcoin above 78k on february 9	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xe8fe18…
02-09 02:18:51	will mistral have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	SELL	1,490	100¢	$1,487	0x208762…
02-09 02:18:39	will the price of solana be between 110 120 on february 9	No	BUY	399	100¢	$398	0x82efb5…
02-08 12:53:01	will mistral have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	1,497	100¢	$1,495	0x39fbe4…
02-08 12:43:49	solana above 100 on february 8	No	BUY	301	100¢	$300	0xfdd908…
02-08 12:43:19	solana above 100 on february 8	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x546839…
02-08 12:43:11	solana above 100 on february 8	No	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0x62a529…
02-08 12:42:55	will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	No	SELL	1,900	100¢	$1,892	0x3a11ff…
02-08 06:05:35	will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	No	BUY	1,922	100¢	$1,916	0xc1257d…
02-07 06:20:27	bitcoin above 78k on february 7	No	BUY	1,549	100¢	$1,547	0x2678c3…
02-07 06:19:01	elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 0 19	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe7e932…
02-07 06:18:03	ethereum above 2400 on february 7	No	BUY	266	100¢	$265	0x37adfe…
02-07 06:17:27	will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on february 7	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x479980…
02-06 07:07:17	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 100 119	No	BUY	1,320	100¢	$1,319	0x827dee…
02-06 07:06:13	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 100 119	No	BUY	539	100¢	$538	0x81ebc8…
02-06 06:48:53	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 100 119	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x38db16…
02-05 06:32:43	nba sas dal 2026 02 05	Spurs	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xb94ba0…
02-05 06:32:37	nba was det 2026 02 05	Pistons	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x13a23c…
02-02 05:09:36	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 740plus	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x96d2a8…
01-29 10:58:20	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 740plus	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa67e06…
01-29 10:58:08	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 720 739	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x67be6c…
01-29 10:57:54	elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 440 459	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1dafc5…
01-29 10:57:32	will ethereum dip to 1600 in january 2026 383	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0f0042…
01-29 10:57:06	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 740plus	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xad5c2c…
01-29 10:56:58	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 80 99	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xe6cd66…