Realized P&L
-$359
Unrealized P&L
+$872
Hit rate
53.8%
Resolved
12
Trades
5,558
lifetime
Volume
$542.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$98
Open exposure
$12.5K
19 positions
First seen
2026-03-08
last 06-30 23:01
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
70% 0% $-10
Other
27% 50% $-464
Sports
3% 75% +$112
Crypto
0% 50% +$3
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 225 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No -5,357 $-5,534 100¢ $-5330 +$203 06-24 10:13
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? No -1,471 $-1,422 99¢ $-1459 $-37 06-28 06:12
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No -1,336 $-1,557 99¢ $-1326 +$231 06-24 10:13
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No -1,501 $-1,309 84¢ $-1253 +$56 06-25 11:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +1,106 $722 84¢ $923 +$201 06-11 21:54
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No -703 $-669 100¢ $-700 $-31 06-17 18:32
Iran leadership change by June 30? No -400 $-439 100¢ $-400 +$40 06-09 13:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +1,080 $625 30¢ $329 $-295 06-30 13:30
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No -321 $-578 100¢ $-320 +$258 06-17 16:49
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Yes -380 $-223 58¢ $-223 +$0 06-29 19:11
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No -106 $-198 96¢ $-102 +$97 06-24 14:31
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No -82 $-237 100¢ $-81 +$155 06-30 06:51
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? No +91 $47 78¢ $71 +$24 06-01 22:11
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No +250 $20 10¢ $25 +$5 06-09 12:59
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +1,000 $32 $2 $-30 06-21 03:54
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes -100 $6 $-0 $-7 06-12 12:45
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? Yes -100 $-10 $-0 +$10 05-31 05:51
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes +15 $1 $0 $-1 05-31 09:28
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes +0 $7 $0 $-7 06-08 06:53