Political-Toad — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$485

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.6%

Resolved

351

Trades

1,505

lifetime

Volume

$110.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-03

last 09-22 06:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Other

99% 97% -$452

Crypto

1% 94% -$33

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	24	$4.6K	2,400	2,400	+0	open	—	09-22 06:20
highest temperature in san francisco on april 20 2026 64 65f	4	$4.0K	2,050	1,998	+52	Yes	+$31	04-21 01:58
highest temperature in jakarta on april 23 2026 35c	7	$3.1K	2,033	1,133	+900	Yes	+$19	04-23 15:24
highest temperature in seattle on april 19 2026 50 51f	6	$2.8K	1,400	1,400	+0	No	+$17	04-19 09:33
highest temperature in shanghai on april 20 2026 19c	7	$2.2K	1,100	1,100	+0	Yes	+$10	04-20 14:48
highest temperature in buenos aires on april 19 2026 26c	11	$2.1K	1,167	927	+240	Yes	+$10	04-20 02:33
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	15	$2.0K	1,160	1,160	+0	open	—	09-22 06:18
highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	31	$2.0K	953	1,018	-65	Yes	+$9	04-16 11:34
highest temperature in cape town on april 20 2026 17c	22	$1.6K	797	796	+0	Yes	+$7	04-20 22:05
highest temperature in toronto on april 18 2026 20c	3	$1.6K	782	782	+0	Yes	+$6	04-19 03:41
highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 19c	22	$1.5K	753	753	+0	No	+$7	04-16 09:04
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 4?	14	$1.4K	724	700	+24	No	+$7	05-05 03:14
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 10?	3	$1.4K	700	700	+0	No	+$6	05-10 11:53
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 30?	5	$1.3K	658	658	+0	Yes	+$6	04-30 12:00
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 25?	16	$1.3K	1,299	0	+1,299	No	+$13	04-26 05:03
highest temperature in busan on april 5 2026 21c	8	$1.2K	705	544	+161	No	+$7	04-05 14:20
highest temperature in wellington on april 8 2026 20c	15	$1.2K	554	658	-104	Yes	+$7	04-08 11:34
highest temperature in taipei on april 10 2026 36c	13	$1.2K	813	400	+413	No	+$10	04-10 13:21
highest temperature in singapore on april 9 2026 32c	4	$1.2K	600	600	+0	No	+$5	04-09 14:39
highest temperature in shanghai on april 8 2026 19c	6	$1.2K	600	600	+0	No	+$6	04-08 14:09
highest temperature in toronto on april 14 2026 23c	4	$1.2K	599	600	-1	Yes	+$5	04-15 04:13
highest temperature in seoul on april 11 2026 12c	8	$1.2K	586	586	+0	Yes	+$5	04-11 15:00
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5?	2	$1.1K	541	541	+0	No	+$4	05-05 08:58
highest temperature in seoul on april 14 2026 24corhigher	27	$1.0K	519	519	+0	No	+$6	04-14 08:03
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 29?	5	$994	500	500	+0	Yes	+$4	04-29 14:15
highest temperature in taipei on april 7 2026 25corhigher	4	$994	500	500	+0	No	+$4	04-07 11:09
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 4?	22	$994	500	500	+0	No	+$5	05-04 09:24
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7?	7	$993	700	300	+400	Yes	+$7	05-07 12:55
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30?	5	$990	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$10	04-30 16:00
highest temperature in seattle on april 10 2026 51forbelow	5	$987	496	496	-0	No	+$4	04-10 11:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-22 06:20:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	800	96¢	$768	0x609a16…
09-22 06:18:58	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	SELL	196	86¢	$169	0xb4cb9c…
09-22 06:16:06	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	SELL	400	88¢	$351	0xe03c45…
09-19 10:46:11	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0x7ef75f…
09-19 10:46:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	70	96¢	$67	0x301140…
09-19 10:45:53	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	72	96¢	$69	0x230222…
09-19 10:44:20	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	268	96¢	$257	0xde3c01…
09-19 10:43:55	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	357	96¢	$343	0x2a1b3d…
09-19 06:28:36	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	509	96¢	$489	0xdbe4d5…
09-19 06:17:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x629b8d…
09-19 05:58:42	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x1840d3…
09-19 05:52:36	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	274	96¢	$263	0x7a69dd…
09-19 05:51:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x161de0…
09-19 05:33:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$1	0xab92ed…
09-19 02:18:49	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	169	96¢	$162	0x2aa7a5…
09-19 02:18:42	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	231	96¢	$222	0x02497f…
09-19 02:18:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	278	96¢	$267	0xc6f16f…
09-19 02:17:24	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	80	96¢	$77	0x7392fe…
09-18 08:11:49	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	800	96¢	$768	0x2feeb0…
09-18 07:10:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	409	96¢	$392	0x9c9387…
09-18 07:03:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	83	96¢	$79	0xa1ada0…
09-18 07:03:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	81	96¢	$77	0x9e66e3…
09-18 07:03:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$15	0x3358b8…
09-18 07:02:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0x0c2d70…
09-17 18:23:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x55defb…
09-17 17:15:13	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	SELL	700	87¢	$609	0x164b5e…
09-17 14:32:01	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	96	86¢	$83	0x6272cf…
09-17 14:31:45	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xae54ac…
09-17 12:37:09	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x9d4ee7…
09-17 12:33:40	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	SELL	264	87¢	$229	0x1b1d0e…
09-11 12:30:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0xb00d88…
08-07 18:42:25	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	BUY	199	88¢	$174	0xb9324d…
08-04 22:15:06	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0x4378a7…
08-04 10:31:48	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xeb726f…
08-02 17:51:53	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	28	86¢	$24	0x165e77…
08-01 14:39:15	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x9a7bbe…
07-30 14:59:12	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x81b8d7…
07-28 14:20:43	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	344	86¢	$296	0x87f8c3…
07-28 10:06:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0xb5fec2…
07-26 03:26:40	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	11	86¢	$10	0x3d549a…
07-25 08:53:37	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0xa22025…
07-25 07:12:40	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	13	86¢	$11	0x95fab1…
07-21 06:37:07	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xbd5600…
07-20 12:38:04	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	487	86¢	$419	0x397d31…
05-15 00:59:18	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	600	98¢	$585	0x73531a…
05-11 16:00:50	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on May 11?	No	BUY	86	99¢	$85	0x73f910…
05-11 15:30:28	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on May 11?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xf49008…
05-10 13:08:32	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 11?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0x12e132…
05-10 11:53:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 10?	No	SELL	700	100¢	$699	0xb3f39e…
05-10 10:21:03	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 10?	No	BUY	286	99¢	$283	0xb092a5…
05-10 09:51:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 10?	No	BUY	414	99¢	$410	0x8066f1…
05-10 02:15:54	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 10?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x5a880b…
05-07 15:33:25	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on May 7?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x9ba250…
05-07 15:26:57	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 7?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$492	0xee2076…
05-07 15:22:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0xffcd29…
05-07 15:22:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0xe7cb99…
05-07 15:22:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0xddc92e…
05-07 15:22:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	130	98¢	$128	0xd276a1…
05-07 15:22:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0xca4bda…
05-07 15:22:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0xbfbbd5…
05-07 15:22:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xb2d254…
05-07 15:22:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	46	98¢	$46	0x9e2317…
05-07 15:22:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x78972d…
05-07 15:22:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x77e7a3…
05-07 15:22:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x557742…
05-07 15:22:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x226d9d…
05-07 15:22:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x069382…
05-07 15:00:23	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$23	0x768c82…
05-07 14:44:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 7?	No	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0x255dfe…
05-07 14:22:03	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xf9a5f3…
05-07 14:22:03	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?	No	BUY	49	98¢	$48	0xcaa938…
05-07 14:22:01	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x400e66…
05-07 14:12:36	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	86	98¢	$85	0x8bd7ef…
05-07 13:51:40	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$9	0xd10bb2…
05-07 13:41:53	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xa8227c…
05-07 13:41:45	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	194	99¢	$192	0xd24ba5…
05-07 12:55:52	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7?	Yes	SELL	64	100¢	$63	0xfb11fe…
05-07 12:55:12	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7?	Yes	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x5f4c04…
05-07 12:54:28	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7?	Yes	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0x72881a…
05-07 12:53:48	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7?	Yes	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0x124a47…
05-07 12:53:02	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7?	Yes	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xa90d23…
05-07 12:17:01	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 7?	Yes	SELL	410	100¢	$410	0xd86480…
05-07 12:00:48	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 7?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xd3167e…
05-07 12:00:34	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7?	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x98e4d1…
05-07 11:58:12	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 7?	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x1ef0b5…
05-07 11:55:47	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 7?	Yes	SELL	400	100¢	$400	0x3a4bfb…
05-07 11:53:36	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	700	99¢	$693	0x23bed4…
05-07 11:52:34	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	500	99¢	$495	0x041de0…
05-07 09:51:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	449	99¢	$445	0x9bb95c…
05-07 00:09:55	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on May 6?	No	BUY	54	99¢	$54	0x514eb0…
05-07 00:09:22	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on May 6?	No	BUY	46	99¢	$45	0xdef060…
05-06 23:51:48	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 6?	No	BUY	46	99¢	$46	0xaf90b0…
05-06 23:29:19	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 6?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x1cca5c…
05-06 23:15:40	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 6?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xc85dc2…
05-06 23:14:06	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 6?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x9d5b3f…
05-06 23:11:02	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 6?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf30534…
05-06 23:10:55	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 6?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x7c9a80…
05-06 19:26:39	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on May 6?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6ff64c…
05-06 19:14:05	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on May 6?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xef393e…
05-06 19:00:57	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on May 6?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xb5d809…