Arctic-Damage — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$4

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

64.1%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

1,723 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$871.6K lifetime

Avg / trade

$506

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-21

last 10-21 19:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Sports

37% 19% -$1,702

Politics

33% 15% -$331

Other

28% 20% -$1,482

Crypto

3% 40% -$271

Tech

0% 20% +$1

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 371 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No		+0	-$2	22¢	$0	+$2	10-21 19:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$166.0K	85,814	85,814	+0	No	-$128	04-28 13:09
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	4	$156.7K	100,000	100,000	+0	No	-$101	04-28 13:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	13	$112.9K	79,591	79,591	+0	No	-$68	04-28 13:23
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	8	$69.6K	84,774	84,774	+0	Yes	-$131	04-28 14:02
Seahawks vs. Cardinals: O/U 41.5	2	$34.6K	35,000	35,000	+0	Under	-$445	09-20 07:36
Spread: Lions (-6.5)	2	$30.7K	32,292	32,292	+0	Lions	-$323	09-27 06:46
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)	2	$30.7K	33,696	33,696	+0	Chiefs	-$337	09-27 06:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	5	$27.4K	17,118	17,118	+0	No	-$100	04-28 13:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	6	$24.1K	19,548	19,548	+0	No	-$157	04-28 13:35
nba hou lal 2026 04 21 spread away 4pt5	6	$22.2K	21,527	21,527	+0	Lakers	-$213	04-21 04:06
dota2 sar1 mouz 2026 04 22	4	$21.4K	21,000	21,000	+0	South America Rejects	+$20	04-22 00:39
lal elc mad 2026 04 22 elc	3	$20.1K	40,240	3	+40,237	Yes	-$144	04-22 02:10
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	2	$13.4K	7,277	7,277	+0	open	—	04-28 12:57
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	2	$12.9K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	-$100	04-28 03:02
nhl lak col 2026 04 21 total 5pt5	2	$9.2K	10,000	10,000	+0	Under	-$172	04-22 01:39
dfb lev bay 2026 04 22 spread away 1pt5	5	$8.6K	10,929	10,929	+0	FC Bayern München	-$114	04-22 02:08
nba orl det 2026 04 22	5	$8.0K	5,169	5,169	+0	Pistons	+$0	04-22 05:23
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	10	$7.6K	22,847	22,847	+0	No	-$178	04-28 12:40
Aix en Provence: Yibing Wu vs Alexandre Muller	19	$6.8K	6,478	6,478	+0	Yibing Wu	-$65	04-28 00:26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$6.7K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	04-28 12:23
Oeiras 4: Guiomar Maristany vs Polina Kudermetova	4	$5.2K	3,443	3,443	+0	Polina Kudermetova	+$0	04-22 04:55
Madrid Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thiago Agustin Tirante	4	$4.1K	5,910	5,910	+0	Thiago Agustin Tirante	+$1	04-22 05:23
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$3.7K	10,801	10,801	+0	No	-$10	04-28 13:07
megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	6	$3.5K	4,346	4,346	+0	Yes	+$87	04-28 04:32
Madrid Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar	14	$3.3K	3,692	3,692	+0	Daniel Merida Aguilar	-$2	04-21 05:47
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$2.7K	7,891	7,891	+0	No	-$8	04-28 12:48
Eagles vs. Titans: O/U 39.5	2	$2.4K	2,428	2,428	+0	Over	-$13	09-20 06:42
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Cameron Norrie	3	$2.3K	4,572	25	+4,547	Jannik Sinner	-$2	04-27 23:55
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$2.1K	30,000	30,000	+0	No	-$30	04-28 12:55
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	2	$1.6K	1,651	1,651	+0	Under	+$0	05-18 01:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 19:04:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	147	41¢	$60	0xd53309…
10-21 19:04:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	48	41¢	$20	0xa83219…
10-21 10:12:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x1d885d…
10-21 03:52:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	50	41¢	$20	0xb1d472…
10-21 02:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xf25529…
10-21 02:01:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x44a388…
10-20 03:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x3feeab…
10-20 03:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xdd5ee4…
10-20 03:02:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x857488…
10-20 03:02:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x616d6d…
10-20 03:02:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x871698…
10-20 03:01:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x8d30b4…
10-20 03:01:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x24550e…
10-20 03:01:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x19fcc6…
10-20 03:00:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xea3358…
10-20 02:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xedb62d…
10-20 02:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x1091dd…
10-20 02:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0xdf4683…
10-20 02:58:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$4	0x1eb4fd…
10-20 02:58:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x0a4d5e…
10-20 02:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xb8ec27…
10-20 02:57:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x3fb2f8…
10-20 02:57:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x3f85e1…
10-20 02:56:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x5ee207…
10-20 02:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0xa56194…
10-20 02:56:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x52231a…
10-20 02:55:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xcf6aff…
10-20 02:55:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x502932…
10-20 02:55:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x6d1dca…
10-20 02:17:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	16¢	$1	0x492669…
10-20 02:17:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x27ee3e…
10-20 02:16:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	0	66¢	$0	0x3da83a…
10-20 02:16:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x13771f…
10-20 02:16:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xcf97ce…
10-20 02:16:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xc051de…
10-20 02:16:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x944aeb…
10-20 02:15:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x34e3b6…
10-20 02:15:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xe8d79d…
10-20 02:13:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x4c5bc7…
10-20 02:12:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x928799…
10-20 02:12:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	0	34¢	$0	0xecc418…
10-20 02:12:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x857f81…
10-20 02:12:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xdd3c3b…
10-20 02:11:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xb820e3…
10-20 02:11:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0xec1b73…
10-20 02:11:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x35b6c0…
10-20 02:10:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x971bf3…
10-20 00:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x233c53…
10-20 00:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x08f379…
10-20 00:43:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xbdfbf1…
10-20 00:43:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xa58205…
10-20 00:43:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x8cf1aa…
10-20 00:43:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x105003…
10-20 00:43:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x686b7e…
10-20 00:42:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x1f0b66…
10-20 00:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x2b8cbe…
10-20 00:42:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x2eb6dd…
10-20 00:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x15853f…
10-20 00:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xaabb95…
10-19 23:46:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0xd39fb7…
10-19 23:46:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x45a450…
10-19 23:45:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x89bf64…
10-19 23:22:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x9f7c87…
10-19 23:22:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	0	33¢	$0	0x3d2526…
10-19 23:21:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xc1a146…
10-19 23:21:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xbdc8c0…
10-19 23:21:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x9151cf…
10-19 23:21:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0xf84209…
10-19 23:21:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	67¢	$5	0x293e52…
10-19 23:21:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0x284411…
10-19 23:21:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x14e343…
10-19 23:20:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xb6949a…
10-19 17:17:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0x52acb4…
10-19 17:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0xbfecdf…
10-19 17:16:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x76e772…
10-19 17:16:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x05711c…
10-19 17:16:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0x5a84fc…
10-19 17:16:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x14b26a…
10-19 17:15:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x1a4e7f…
10-19 16:23:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x79cdd4…
10-19 16:22:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x06abca…
10-19 16:22:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xd014ed…
10-19 16:22:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xc4833f…
10-19 16:21:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0xc19917…
10-19 16:21:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x2a5ff3…
10-19 16:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x53fa47…
10-19 16:21:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xcbd86d…
10-19 16:20:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xc48203…
10-19 15:46:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xe34301…
10-19 15:46:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0xeff768…
10-19 15:46:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x8fce0e…
10-19 15:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0x56aca9…
10-19 15:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x19e298…
10-19 15:46:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xd0948b…
10-19 14:42:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x2c2a2a…
10-19 14:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x4ef2c2…
10-19 14:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xe13a40…
10-19 14:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x0755b8…
10-19 14:42:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x33d2a9…
10-19 14:42:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x4aab9d…