Tired-Exaggeration — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$124

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

67.3%

Resolved

119

Trades

304

lifetime

Volume

$23.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$78

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-11 08:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 77 days

Categories

Other

37% 50% +$6

Crypto

36% 87% +$359

Politics

10% 25% -$1

Sports

9% 82% -$241

Tech

8% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		-1	-$1	98¢	$-1	$0	08-25 03:42
Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	Yes		-312	-$2	0¢	$-0	+$2	08-27 12:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 11:45 UTC	5	$1.5K	901	896	+5	Up	+$12	02-12 12:01
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	12	$1.4K	723	723	+0	Yes	+$0	03-28 02:49
nflx above 20 on february 20 2026	2	$1.3K	665	665	+0	Yes	+$0	02-19 03:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-15 05:30 UTC	2	$1.1K	837	824	+13	Up	+$293	02-15 05:43
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$776	389	389	+0	No	$0	02-14 02:06
will the us next strike iran on february 11 2026 et	2	$775	388	388	+0	No	+$0	02-13 02:56
will moonshot have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$775	388	388	+0	No	$0	02-15 05:03
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	4	$613	315	315	+0	Yes	+$0	01-25 11:45
nba orl phi 2026 04 15	11	$530	367	367	+0	76ers	+$2	04-16 01:52
bitcoin above 62k on march 27	2	$478	239	239	+0	Yes	+$0	03-27 03:30
elon musk of tweets march 28 march 30 190 214	2	$478	239	239	+0	No	+$0	03-30 03:10
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$478	239	239	+0	Yes	$0	03-25 01:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April?	6	$478	239	239	+0	No	+$0	04-02 06:47
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 113	2	$478	239	239	+0	No	$0	03-28 02:26
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$478	239	239	+0	No	$0	04-03 01:39
nba min det 2026 04 02	3	$478	240	240	+0	Pistons	+$0	04-03 01:41
crude oil all time high by march 31	2	$476	240	240	+0	No	+$0	03-30 12:37
bitcoin above 64k on march 23	5	$476	243	243	+0	Yes	+$1	03-23 01:52
Espresso FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$388	388	0	+388	Yes	+$0	02-13 02:57
nba lac den 2026 01 30	6	$330	317	317	+0	Nuggets	+$19	01-31 02:29
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	2	$311	156	156	+0	Yes	$0	01-31 02:22
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	2	$306	153	153	+0	No	$0	01-19 04:35
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$304	153	153	+0	No	$0	01-13 01:07
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 11:30 UTC	1	$294	382	0	+382	Down	+$88	02-12 11:36
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 115 139	2	$264	132	132	+0	No	+$0	04-16 01:33
Military action against Iran ends on April 13, 2026?	2	$264	132	132	+0	No	$0	04-11 00:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?	2	$264	132	132	+0	No	+$0	04-11 01:24
nba lal okc 2026 04 02	2	$239	1,194	0	+1,194	Thunder	-$239	04-03 01:45
ethereum above 1800 on march 24	1	$239	239	0	+239	Yes	+$0	03-24 02:05
elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 140 164	1	$239	239	0	+239	No	+$0	04-01 01:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-11 08:43:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0x569ec4…
10-11 08:41:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	61¢	$2	0xb7687b…
08-27 12:19:49	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	1¢	$0	0x276cbe…
08-27 12:18:04	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	1¢	$1	0x4e8c74…
08-27 12:05:27	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	121	1¢	$1	0xf70730…
08-25 23:17:43	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x7dc511…
08-25 23:17:40	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xcbda5b…
08-25 23:17:25	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x3e05ee…
08-25 11:52:45	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xead720…
08-25 11:52:21	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x702f03…
08-25 09:46:31	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xbb646c…
08-25 08:18:12	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xd332bb…
08-25 03:42:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x719d93…
08-25 03:42:36	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	SELL	40	100¢	$39	0xecf827…
08-17 02:27:12	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	BUY	40	100¢	$39	0x56d6e3…
08-16 12:43:00	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	53	74¢	$39	0x4ae299…
08-16 09:36:37	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	53	73¢	$38	0x7c0960…
08-16 08:42:43	will xauusd dip to 3500 in august 2026	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x89f578…
08-16 08:22:31	will xauusd dip to 3500 in august 2026	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x736540…
08-16 05:53:43	will xauusd dip to 3500 in august 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5ae8f2…
08-15 17:22:40	will xauusd dip to 3500 in august 2026	No	SELL	2	100¢	$1	0x9f426a…
08-15 12:15:22	will xauusd dip to 3500 in august 2026	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x52a52a…
08-11 13:31:43	will xauusd dip to 3500 in august 2026	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x98399d…
08-11 13:27:19	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	SELL	46	71¢	$33	0x5a07d8…
08-11 13:26:43	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	SELL	6	71¢	$4	0x1e0c44…
08-11 05:47:19	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	BUY	52	71¢	$37	0x1177ee…
08-10 05:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 10?	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0x66ceed…
08-10 03:34:43	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 10?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xdf5af3…
08-10 03:34:07	will wti dip to 30 in august 2026	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xa673af…
08-04 03:57:05	will wti dip to 30 in august 2026	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x74d4e3…
08-03 12:46:24	will wti dip to 20 in august 2026	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xc2544c…
08-02 02:36:11	will wti dip to 20 in august 2026	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x6ead7e…
08-01 09:56:05	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 280m and 290m?	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0x0ed6ed…
08-01 03:44:08	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 280m and 290m?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xf3ae70…
07-30 01:58:27	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x4ace00…
07-30 01:57:50	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0x34655b…
07-28 01:37:25	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x2f5ecf…
07-27 16:25:30	GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	40	94¢	$37	0x798556…
07-23 06:57:22	GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0xd5a056…
07-23 00:33:12	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	37	99¢	$37	0xb4eeb6…
07-19 02:30:42	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0xdd79eb…
07-19 02:30:15	Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	37	99¢	$37	0xff49cd…
07-17 01:09:37	Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0xd8cc6a…
07-16 08:52:16	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026	No	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0xaecdaf…
07-16 00:53:14	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0xfde3a5…
07-16 00:52:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0x9e4fdd…
07-13 00:39:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x88a5d9…
07-12 03:14:16	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xe37e78…
07-12 03:14:01	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x62eaf1…
07-12 03:14:01	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x5de702…
07-12 03:12:44	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x256e89…
07-12 03:12:22	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x462641…
07-12 01:17:25	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x0af2e0…
07-11 07:04:59	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8ec391…
07-11 07:04:52	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x2e1ad0…
07-11 07:04:50	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x067cea…
07-11 07:04:47	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xd52edf…
07-11 07:04:32	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x148d93…
07-11 07:04:20	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xa7928e…
07-11 07:04:19	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x86e0c3…
07-11 07:04:17	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xa05638…
07-11 07:04:14	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x30ae76…
07-11 07:03:49	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xdefe95…
07-11 07:03:47	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5eb73d…
07-11 01:51:47	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0x3f95df…
07-10 20:44:02	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0x88b98b…
07-10 09:23:19	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0xd3b095…
07-08 08:20:28	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0x8f11d5…
07-07 00:12:29	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0x855cea…
06-30 02:35:16	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$34	0x745d96…
06-29 18:57:10	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x44a202…
06-29 02:04:31	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0xba0c3a…
06-28 00:04:41	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 28?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x811301…
06-27 08:04:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	36	95¢	$34	0x567eea…
06-27 07:52:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	36	95¢	$34	0x4ae841…
06-27 07:51:31	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0xe99950…
06-25 01:13:38	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xfb63e8…
06-24 01:43:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0xab3bf9…
06-24 00:44:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0xbe36d7…
06-23 10:06:32	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0xe345cf…
06-22 01:48:10	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x587c98…
06-21 06:27:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x808f6e…
06-21 00:36:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x20d6d4…
06-20 03:46:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x0a67ce…
06-20 03:45:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x0aca63…
06-20 03:44:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xd7cd5b…
06-20 03:44:43	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xf6790a…
06-20 03:43:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x21f2c6…
06-20 03:36:50	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc440bd…
06-20 03:32:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xffcf53…
06-20 01:08:44	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xdf2e93…
06-19 01:33:05	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xa089e2…
06-14 21:42:01	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x6bd5bb…
06-13 00:38:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x95e0e0…
06-12 00:52:24	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x184f82…
06-12 00:44:36	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x4e4791…
06-11 01:31:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xe7298f…
06-11 00:28:00	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x855dda…
06-10 02:03:49	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	SELL	34	96¢	$33	0x2d2bdc…
06-10 00:59:03	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	34	96¢	$33	0xd30b05…