Uncomfortable-Hubcap — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

1.4%

Resolved

206

Trades

520

lifetime

Volume

$519

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 08-07 03:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 120 days

Categories

Other

51% 3% -$1

Politics

26% 0% -$1

Crypto

11% 4% $0

Tech

8% 0% $0

Sports

4% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	9	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	$0	01-15 08:06
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	10	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	$0	04-27 02:50
will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	10	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	$0	03-28 06:08
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	6	$6	3	3	+0	No	$0	03-31 07:52
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	03-19 06:56
Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	02-04 09:01
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	6	$6	3	3	+0	No	$0	06-09 06:11
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	07-18 06:25
us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	6	$6	3	3	+0	No	$0	07-29 01:23
netanyahu out by july 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	07-07 04:28
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	06-12 04:41
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	07-04 02:57
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $4.00 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	04-07 03:45
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	05-09 06:36
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	04-21 02:39
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	3	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	04-06 03:18
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	04-08 03:26
Will the Chicago Mercantile Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	04-06 03:18
bitcoin above 80k on january 30	3	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	01-30 00:39
bitcoin above 60k on february 16	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	02-13 00:46
will nick begich iii advance from the ak al primary election	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	07-21 01:21
nothing ever happens microstrategy	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	02-20 06:21
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-02 04:54
will ph win the most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	03-16 03:41
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	02-10 09:06
spx opens up or down on february 18 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	02-18 09:10
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	05-25 06:09
is earth flat 20260608195956112	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-10 06:31
Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	$0	03-14 04:53
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	$0	05-11 03:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-07 03:08:31	Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xf078f7…
08-07 03:07:54	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf186c2…
08-07 02:55:37	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf9730c…
08-07 02:45:01	Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf868dc…
08-01 01:41:42	will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the uptspt by august 31 2026 20260728213423296	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xaba92c…
08-01 01:39:50	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xcf3766…
08-01 01:28:56	will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the uptspt by august 31 2026 20260728213423296	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf5adcb…
08-01 00:06:50	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1aa0df…
07-31 06:23:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1b19fd…
07-31 04:45:27	Will Communists of Russia win the next Lipetsk Oblast Parliament elections?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x18080a…
07-31 04:42:15	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7a49d0…
07-31 03:54:33	Will Communists of Russia win the next Lipetsk Oblast Parliament elections?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe03a12…
07-30 06:21:18	Will United Russia win the next Altai Krai Parliament elections?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xfd2d8e…
07-30 06:20:27	will russia enter oleksiievo druzhkivka by september 30 20260706175201730	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x08ee6a…
07-30 04:47:30	will russia enter oleksiievo druzhkivka by september 30 20260706175201730	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf0af12…
07-30 04:35:39	Will United Russia win the next Altai Krai Parliament elections?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x714ea6…
07-29 01:23:09	US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2124ad…
07-29 01:22:36	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x6a2cfe…
07-29 01:12:18	US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xbb7c1f…
07-29 00:55:17	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc97a50…
07-28 06:28:42	Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-10 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xcea9a7…
07-28 06:27:16	Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x681fec…
07-28 06:16:15	Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7b8bd0…
07-28 04:54:54	Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-10 House seat?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x5ba6af…
07-27 07:03:57	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe91e13…
07-27 07:03:19	bitcoin above 54k on july 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x38ac0c…
07-27 06:46:43	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7b9758…
07-27 06:42:51	bitcoin above 54k on july 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x87a6b4…
07-25 06:19:27	Will White House post 0-19 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x20df24…
07-25 06:17:12	Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe4bd54…
07-25 04:41:09	Will White House post 0-19 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x422516…
07-25 03:48:51	Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0e3878…
07-24 06:35:55	will a chinese company have one of the top 10 ai models by december 31	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3bab85…
07-24 06:35:18	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4f2717…
07-24 06:20:33	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x526d97…
07-24 06:16:15	will a chinese company have one of the top 10 ai models by december 31	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x31b525…
07-23 06:29:25	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x26c9d6…
07-23 06:28:49	Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x27b244…
07-23 06:07:34	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc5a7b9…
07-23 04:52:34	Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x52dae3…
07-22 06:29:19	Will Amish Shah be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x11aa72…
07-22 06:27:45	Will Bersatu win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x5f8cfa…
07-22 06:11:04	Will Bersatu win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdd41c5…
07-22 04:57:42	Will Amish Shah be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x62c550…
07-21 01:25:06	Andy Burnham out as UK PM by August 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd77f9f…
07-21 01:21:22	Will Nick Begich III advance from the AK-AL primary election?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf6f7ad…
07-21 00:57:19	Andy Burnham out as UK PM by August 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x62d8ba…
07-21 00:53:09	Will Nick Begich III advance from the AK-AL primary election?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7dadaf…
07-20 04:56:27	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 120m and 125m?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x5be255…
07-20 04:55:46	will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260630182145718 274	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x16caf0…
07-20 04:44:39	will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260630182145718 274	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbc0e1d…
07-20 04:39:00	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 120m and 125m?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9f7405…
07-18 06:25:01	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x20839a…
07-18 06:24:10	will aristotle self certify sports event contracts by december 31 2026 20260630144618249	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0abc74…
07-18 04:53:25	will aristotle self certify sports event contracts by december 31 2026 20260630144618249	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5ca4fe…
07-18 04:50:25	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xefb606…
07-17 06:36:01	us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa2337b…
07-17 06:35:10	Will the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x7460e5…
07-17 06:18:10	us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xfae476…
07-17 06:12:19	Will the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8cee65…
07-16 06:10:02	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb8041b…
07-16 06:09:17	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd18c51…
07-16 04:37:28	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xef9eae…
07-16 04:20:08	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x90dbbc…
07-15 03:23:13	Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xf9852d…
07-15 03:22:17	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb52bfa…
07-15 03:09:23	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3f1843…
07-15 03:05:19	Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3a568e…
07-14 00:48:04	Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x600e6c…
07-14 00:47:08	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3d0c59…
07-14 00:08:01	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc5e5ba…
07-14 00:02:23	Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc31ad9…
07-13 04:44:46	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xdcec56…
07-13 04:43:17	Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 44m?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x136822…
07-13 04:23:01	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xba365f…
07-13 04:17:34	Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 44m?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcce678…
07-11 00:29:08	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x96b036…
07-11 00:27:59	will north korea recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x6c9904…
07-11 00:04:20	will north korea recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd15b34…
07-10 23:57:35	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3273dd…
07-10 03:58:04	will nick begich iii advance from the ak al primary election	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x44b82a…
07-10 03:57:14	will iraq recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x989b8c…
07-10 03:34:53	will iraq recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x2af7ed…
07-10 03:30:34	will nick begich iii advance from the ak al primary election	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x661692…
07-09 00:26:52	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x754228…
07-09 00:25:46	will afghanistan recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xde3b27…
07-09 00:11:47	will afghanistan recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8cbee9…
07-09 00:08:43	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x54e826…
07-08 06:18:20	Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x9a487b…
07-08 06:17:20	Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x111f13…
07-08 04:47:20	Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x79ae73…
07-08 04:41:53	Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xafccf2…
07-07 04:29:37	Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x0adabe…
07-07 04:28:53	netanyahu out by july 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9a7145…
07-07 03:39:32	netanyahu out by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x495bc0…
07-07 03:34:16	Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3693a8…
07-06 03:40:11	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in july 2026 20260626153701906	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x05ff67…
07-06 03:39:19	us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x2c5efc…
07-06 03:26:05	us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xe47ffd…
07-06 03:20:53	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in july 2026 20260626153701906	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc9666d…