Trustworthy-Champagne — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$4.49K

Unrealized P&L

-$514

Hit rate

95.6%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

221

775 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$13.0K

$257.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

$333

Open exposure

$954

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 11-02 08:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Politics

76% 28% +$9,676

Other

23% 6% -$27,718

Sports

1% 20% -$264

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 196 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	+12,500	$1,000	8¢	$937	-$62	11-02 08:41
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+425	$7	4¢	$17	+$10	11-01 17:42
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	+0	$462	12¢	$0	-$462	08-01 18:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	57	$64.3K	85,368	85,368	+0	No	+$13,546	06-15 06:58
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	12	$26.8K	123,045	43,018	+80,028	No	-$9,688	05-17 15:46
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	10	$21.3K	17,469	17,469	+0	No	+$10,953	04-21 19:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	12	$10.5K	188,596	101,260	+87,336	No	-$4,884	05-27 12:25
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	8	$10.2K	30,856	13,594	+17,262	No	-$635	05-25 17:52
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	123	$8.4K	34,322	34,322	+0	No	-$1,570	05-20 08:57
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	23	$8.3K	7,545	7,545	+0	Yes	+$2,294	06-19 13:02
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	6	$7.1K	5,568	5,568	+0	Yes	+$3,891	10-28 05:55
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	2	$6.3K	5,405	5,405	+0	No	+$2,324	04-21 20:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	24	$5.0K	52,333	0	+52,333	No	-$5,049	06-04 19:22
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	17	$5.0K	73,678	46,277	+27,401	No	-$83	05-29 14:59
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	18	$4.6K	146,553	2,476	+144,077	Yes	-$3,523	05-15 18:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$4.4K	11,791	11,791	+0	No	+$984	05-22 18:39
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?	5	$3.4K	4,965	4,965	+0	Yes	-$1,425	05-15 18:12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	12	$3.4K	20,190	20,190	+0	No	+$691	05-24 14:27
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	3	$3.1K	22,294	0	+22,294	No	-$3,100	06-18 06:44
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$3.0K	7,293	0	+7,293	Yes	-$3,000	06-14 22:08
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	6	$2.9K	20,699	0	+20,699	No	-$2,900	07-20 19:07
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	3	$2.8K	20,527	20,527	+0	No	+$159	06-11 15:08
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	4	$2.4K	26,388	26,388	+0	No	-$1,625	05-18 11:46
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$2.2K	2,941	2,941	+0	Yes	+$1,235	07-19 12:38
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	5	$2.0K	20,475	20,475	+0	Yes	-$380	05-23 00:32
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	2	$2.0K	12,006	0	+12,006	No	+$10,006	05-25 21:42
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$2.0K	39,161	0	+39,161	No	-$2,000	05-19 10:49
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	5	$1.8K	9,128	9,128	+0	No	+$14	05-25 21:44
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	4	$1.8K	2,512	2,512	+0	Yes	+$1,006	10-27 20:16
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$1.8K	20,000	20,000	+0	No	-$200	05-21 10:40
iran closes its airspace by june 15	3	$1.8K	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	+$1,249	06-07 19:11
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	2	$1.7K	1,684	1,684	+0	No	-$288	07-20 10:10
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$1.7K	9,766	0	+9,766	No	-$1,700	05-06 09:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 08:41:42	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	4,911	8¢	$393	0xdca41f…
11-02 07:53:16	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	150	8¢	$12	0x7f3749…
11-02 04:08:37	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xf206ba…
11-02 03:58:31	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	815	8¢	$65	0x1f8a95…
11-02 03:17:04	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	8¢	$80	0xdf9864…
11-02 00:29:33	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x6c920c…
11-01 21:47:27	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0x9ed160…
11-01 21:41:37	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x04d1ea…
11-01 18:56:33	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	70	8¢	$6	0x0131ff…
11-01 17:42:49	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	425	2¢	$7	0x38fee3…
11-01 17:41:25	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	5,193	8¢	$415	0xe24947…
11-01 17:32:16	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	439	21¢	$92	0x0c3b9f…
11-01 17:32:00	Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x6b4f8a…
11-01 17:31:39	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	500	22¢	$110	0x560fa8…
10-29 14:54:19	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	59	92¢	$55	0x0eacae…
10-29 09:20:14	Will Yashar win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	784	5¢	$40	0x648b04…
10-28 06:01:11	Will The Joint List win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	403	90¢	$363	0xec889e…
10-28 05:57:47	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	4,277	5¢	$214	0x822756…
10-28 05:55:41	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5,568	99¢	$5,490	0x0f87e3…
10-27 20:16:21	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	2,512	56¢	$1,406	0xb8609e…
10-27 19:40:59	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	309	33¢	$102	0x042288…
10-27 19:40:45	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Yes	SELL	1,462	7¢	$102	0x484650…
10-27 18:54:11	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	616	32¢	$197	0x71cbf7…
10-27 18:53:59	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	637	16¢	$100	0xe20c82…
10-27 18:41:08	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Yes	SELL	1,462	20¢	$291	0xf0e9c5…
10-27 18:40:20	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	2,500	28¢	$700	0x8e7b80…
10-27 18:39:36	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,071	28¢	$300	0x465d25…
10-27 18:38:33	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0xcd14ff…
10-27 18:38:12	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,250	16¢	$200	0xf302f1…
10-27 18:37:36	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,071	28¢	$300	0xac5dcc…
10-27 18:36:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	939	21¢	$200	0xb5e7b7…
10-27 18:32:20	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	87	1¢	$1	0x7c7b6a…
10-27 18:24:57	Will Likud win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	507	4¢	$20	0x503cbb…
10-27 18:23:20	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	556	9¢	$50	0xf574a4…
10-27 18:19:26	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	740	2¢	$15	0xa2e593…
10-27 18:19:26	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	235	2¢	$5	0x9ac485…
10-27 18:19:26	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	58	2¢	$1	0x5335c4…
10-27 18:19:26	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	176	2¢	$4	0x30747e…
10-27 18:11:27	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x328efe…
10-27 18:10:27	Will Together win 13% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	87	34¢	$30	0x4832ae…
10-27 18:03:59	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xc00414…
10-27 18:03:59	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x9eb765…
10-27 18:03:57	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	85	2¢	$2	0xfe556b…
10-27 18:03:57	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	35	2¢	$1	0xf92101…
10-27 18:03:57	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xb0c751…
10-27 18:03:57	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	35	2¢	$1	0xade7dc…
10-27 18:03:57	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	450	2¢	$11	0x9f30f9…
10-27 18:03:57	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$1	0x826fb6…
10-27 18:03:57	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	390	2¢	$10	0x323776…
10-27 18:03:50	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	201	2¢	$5	0x5acbc1…
10-27 18:03:50	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$8	0x551182…
10-27 18:03:50	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	180	2¢	$4	0x338f08…
10-27 18:03:05	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0xa4e2d9…
10-27 18:02:39	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,285	4¢	$50	0xff648e…
10-27 17:38:08	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0xd6a771…
10-27 17:38:08	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xd642e9…
10-27 17:38:06	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	32	2¢	$1	0xf812c3…
10-27 17:38:06	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x9d4da2…
10-27 17:38:06	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	84	2¢	$2	0x05bed1…
10-27 17:30:50	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x3ed36e…
10-27 17:28:00	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	31	2¢	$1	0x926602…
10-27 17:28:00	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x73ee58…
10-27 17:28:00	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x154aa8…
10-27 17:27:23	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x6b88a7…
10-27 17:12:06	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xc1205a…
10-27 17:12:06	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x270733…
10-27 17:10:15	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x79b087…
10-27 17:08:57	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xfb9535…
10-27 17:08:57	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	25	2¢	$0	0xe3df31…
10-27 17:08:57	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	54	1¢	$0	0x5f7a0e…
10-27 17:08:57	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x57c4b5…
10-27 17:08:57	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	25	2¢	$0	0x4eb97d…
10-27 17:07:30	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	550	1¢	$3	0x97e238…
10-27 17:07:30	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	224	1¢	$1	0x8e43b9…
10-27 17:06:36	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xfe50e8…
10-27 17:06:36	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0xfb210b…
10-27 17:06:36	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	90	2¢	$2	0xf9b515…
10-27 17:06:36	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0xf4e7cd…
10-27 17:06:36	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	73	2¢	$1	0xa9ac22…
10-27 17:06:36	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0x20e30b…
10-27 16:59:45	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xf169f6…
10-27 16:59:45	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xda04ac…
10-27 16:59:45	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x983d2c…
10-27 16:59:45	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x691460…
10-27 16:59:45	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0x3e9325…
10-27 16:59:45	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x23f17b…
10-27 16:59:45	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	27	2¢	$1	0x025bef…
10-27 16:56:47	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xec0a2a…
10-27 16:54:30	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x828699…
10-27 16:54:21	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	116	1¢	$1	0xc19599…
10-27 16:54:20	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xfd6eb4…
10-27 16:54:20	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	427	1¢	$3	0xb0e401…
10-27 16:54:20	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	260	1¢	$2	0x81585f…
10-27 16:54:20	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x4b0b58…
10-27 16:54:20	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	58	1¢	$0	0x1e757d…
10-27 16:50:47	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	55	1¢	$0	0xcb31aa…
10-27 16:50:47	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x8a4f01…
10-27 16:50:47	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x72a652…
10-27 16:50:47	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x504b21…
10-27 16:50:47	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0x466359…