Trustworthy-Champagne — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$3.93K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.42K

Hit rate

78.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

282

833 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$14.6K

$259.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$311

Open exposure

$1.38K

6 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 11-12 14:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Politics

76% 28% +$9,481

Other

23% 13% -$27,796

Sports

1% 20% -$264

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 196 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	+22,740	$1,230	2¢	$546	-$684	11-12 14:16
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+3,433	$400	15¢	$498	+$98	11-12 14:18
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	+10,636	$544	2¢	$175	-$369	11-03 22:38
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+6,806	$161	2¢	$157	-$4	11-12 03:17
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Yes	+49	$2	11¢	$6	+$3	10-27 14:21
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	+0	$462	6¢	$0	-$462	08-01 18:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	57	$64.3K	85,368	85,368	+0	No	+$13,546	06-15 06:58
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	12	$26.8K	123,045	43,018	+80,028	No	-$9,688	05-17 15:46
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	10	$21.3K	17,469	17,469	+0	No	+$10,953	04-21 19:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	12	$10.5K	188,596	101,260	+87,336	No	-$4,884	05-27 12:25
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	8	$10.2K	30,856	13,594	+17,262	No	-$635	05-25 17:52
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	123	$8.4K	34,322	34,322	+0	No	-$1,570	05-20 08:57
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	23	$8.3K	7,545	7,545	+0	Yes	+$2,294	06-19 13:02
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	6	$7.1K	5,568	5,568	+0	Yes	+$3,891	10-28 05:55
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	2	$6.3K	5,405	5,405	+0	No	+$2,324	04-21 20:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	24	$5.0K	52,333	0	+52,333	No	-$5,049	06-04 19:22
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	17	$5.0K	73,678	46,277	+27,401	No	-$83	05-29 14:59
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	18	$4.6K	146,553	2,476	+144,077	Yes	-$3,523	05-15 18:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$4.4K	11,791	11,791	+0	No	+$984	05-22 18:39
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?	5	$3.4K	4,965	4,965	+0	Yes	-$1,425	05-15 18:12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	12	$3.4K	20,190	20,190	+0	No	+$691	05-24 14:27
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	3	$3.1K	22,294	0	+22,294	No	-$3,100	06-18 06:44
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$3.0K	7,293	0	+7,293	Yes	-$3,000	06-14 22:08
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	6	$2.9K	20,699	0	+20,699	No	-$2,900	07-20 19:07
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	3	$2.8K	20,527	20,527	+0	No	+$159	06-11 15:08
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	4	$2.4K	26,388	26,388	+0	No	-$1,625	05-18 11:46
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$2.2K	2,941	2,941	+0	Yes	+$1,235	07-19 12:38
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	5	$2.0K	20,475	20,475	+0	Yes	-$380	05-23 00:32
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	2	$2.0K	12,006	0	+12,006	No	+$10,006	05-25 21:42
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$2.0K	39,161	0	+39,161	No	-$2,000	05-19 10:49
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	5	$1.8K	9,128	9,128	+0	No	+$14	05-25 21:44
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	4	$1.8K	2,512	2,512	+0	Yes	+$1,006	10-27 20:16
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$1.8K	20,000	20,000	+0	No	-$200	05-21 10:40
iran closes its airspace by june 15	3	$1.8K	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	+$1,249	06-07 19:11
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	2	$1.7K	1,684	1,684	+0	No	-$288	07-20 10:10
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$1.7K	9,766	0	+9,766	No	-$1,700	05-06 09:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-12 14:18:22	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,433	12¢	$400	0x17244d…
11-12 14:16:55	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	10,240	2¢	$230	0xe5abc6…
11-12 03:17:06	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	229	2¢	$3	0xbf5c41…
11-11 06:34:24	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x575860…
11-11 06:34:22	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0xa16b48…
11-08 13:29:27	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$3	0x4b141e…
11-08 03:05:09	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	2¢	$2	0xffc68a…
11-08 03:05:09	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	248	2¢	$4	0x42270a…
11-08 03:04:39	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	255	2¢	$5	0xdf5b19…
11-08 03:04:39	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	255	2¢	$5	0x33f7da…
11-08 03:04:37	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0xe45d83…
11-08 03:04:37	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	165	2¢	$3	0x9c2bd5…
11-08 03:04:37	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x93afd7…
11-08 03:04:37	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	219	2¢	$4	0x32032f…
11-08 03:04:37	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x2987ec…
11-08 03:04:37	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	2¢	$1	0x256a8b…
11-08 03:01:27	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x544731…
11-06 14:50:03	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x2c2b11…
11-06 09:17:40	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x96ec42…
11-06 09:17:39	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	2¢	$3	0x3d8826…
11-06 08:43:25	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x976cbe…
11-06 08:43:25	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	432	2¢	$9	0x60fac2…
11-05 13:01:07	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x05f102…
11-05 06:01:36	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	897	2¢	$18	0x421c22…
11-04 22:39:24	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,017	3¢	$61	0x566b1e…
11-04 19:26:06	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xc18e9f…
11-04 19:26:06	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x162aa8…
11-04 18:31:22	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	3¢	$2	0x23c429…
11-04 18:31:21	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x7d0ee1…
11-04 17:42:24	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0xfc6120…
11-04 17:42:24	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	3¢	$2	0xb579c1…
11-04 15:34:12	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xd4663b…
11-04 14:19:12	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xccb434…
11-04 14:14:33	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$9	0x9546f8…
11-04 14:14:33	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0x317419…
11-04 14:14:33	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x27aedd…
11-04 14:14:03	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	3¢	$1	0x9b0c66…
11-04 14:14:03	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x961834…
11-04 13:40:15	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xe5d0d8…
11-04 13:40:15	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	3¢	$0	0xcef9e9…
11-04 13:40:15	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0xa603cc…
11-04 13:40:15	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x412ea5…
11-04 10:10:12	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0xcc6487…
11-03 22:38:15	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3,200	4¢	$144	0xa27231…
11-03 22:29:49	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7,436	5¢	$400	0x4454da…
11-03 21:08:54	Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 2027?	Yes	BUY	601	5¢	$30	0x2b1e92…
11-03 04:43:51	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xa1a3f4…
11-03 04:36:33	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x4a2a8d…
11-03 03:31:40	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x90a9ae…
11-03 02:57:04	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0xd689ff…
11-03 02:48:12	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x41e68c…
11-03 02:41:52	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x0ccd2d…
11-03 02:40:21	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x7052de…
11-03 02:20:12	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x2a1b03…
11-03 02:15:13	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0xd0f9e2…
11-03 02:14:07	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x11c1a3…
11-02 16:07:58	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x3f1fc3…
11-02 15:56:13	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xd14faa…
11-02 08:41:42	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	4,911	8¢	$393	0xdca41f…
11-02 07:53:16	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	150	8¢	$12	0x7f3749…
11-02 04:08:37	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xf206ba…
11-02 03:58:31	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	815	8¢	$65	0x1f8a95…
11-02 03:17:04	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	8¢	$80	0xdf9864…
11-02 00:29:33	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x6c920c…
11-01 21:47:27	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0x9ed160…
11-01 21:41:37	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x04d1ea…
11-01 18:56:33	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	70	8¢	$6	0x0131ff…
11-01 17:42:49	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	425	2¢	$7	0x38fee3…
11-01 17:41:25	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	5,193	8¢	$415	0xe24947…
11-01 17:32:16	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	439	21¢	$92	0x0c3b9f…
11-01 17:32:00	Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x6b4f8a…
11-01 17:31:39	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	500	22¢	$110	0x560fa8…
10-29 14:54:19	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	59	92¢	$55	0x0eacae…
10-29 09:20:14	Will Yashar win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	784	5¢	$40	0x648b04…
10-28 06:01:11	Will The Joint List win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	403	90¢	$363	0xec889e…
10-28 05:57:47	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	4,277	5¢	$214	0x822756…
10-28 05:55:41	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5,568	99¢	$5,490	0x0f87e3…
10-27 20:16:21	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	2,512	56¢	$1,406	0xb8609e…
10-27 19:40:59	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	309	33¢	$102	0x042288…
10-27 19:40:45	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Yes	SELL	1,462	7¢	$102	0x484650…
10-27 18:54:11	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	616	32¢	$197	0x71cbf7…
10-27 18:53:59	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	637	16¢	$100	0xe20c82…
10-27 18:41:08	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Yes	SELL	1,462	20¢	$291	0xf0e9c5…
10-27 18:40:20	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	2,500	28¢	$700	0x8e7b80…
10-27 18:39:36	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,071	28¢	$300	0x465d25…
10-27 18:38:33	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0xcd14ff…
10-27 18:38:12	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,250	16¢	$200	0xf302f1…
10-27 18:37:36	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,071	28¢	$300	0xac5dcc…
10-27 18:36:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	939	21¢	$200	0xb5e7b7…
10-27 18:32:20	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	87	1¢	$1	0x7c7b6a…
10-27 18:24:57	Will Likud win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	507	4¢	$20	0x503cbb…
10-27 18:23:20	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	556	9¢	$50	0xf574a4…
10-27 18:19:26	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	740	2¢	$15	0xa2e593…
10-27 18:19:26	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	235	2¢	$5	0x9ac485…
10-27 18:19:26	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	58	2¢	$1	0x5335c4…
10-27 18:19:26	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	176	2¢	$4	0x30747e…
10-27 18:11:27	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x328efe…
10-27 18:10:27	Will Together win 13% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	87	34¢	$30	0x4832ae…
10-27 18:03:59	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xc00414…
10-27 18:03:59	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x9eb765…