Arctic-Blackfish — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8.20K

Unrealized P&L

+$2.17K

Hit rate

87.0%

Resolved

556

Trades

8,035

lifetime

Volume

$1.38M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$172

Open exposure

$25.1K

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-25 16:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 104 days

Categories

Politics

52% 75% +$19,580

Other

44% 69% -$11,949

Sports

3% 33% +$375

Crypto

0% 67% +$196

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-13,017	-$11,250	82¢	$-10609	+$641	08-28 10:52
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	-10,183	-$7,230	86¢	$-8758	-$1,528	06-11 17:36
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+5,000	$1,895	55¢	$2.7K	+$853	08-04 19:22
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+1,000	$753	72¢	$715	-$38	09-27 12:35
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,021	$500	68¢	$689	+$189	09-13 12:06
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	-7,057	-$2,611	10¢	$-670	+$1,941	05-12 13:59
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	+500	$350	88¢	$438	+$88	08-09 15:44
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+600	$340	70¢	$417	+$77	08-15 23:57
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	-21	$38	86¢	$-18	-$56	09-01 13:00
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+2	$1	74¢	$1	+$0	08-12 01:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	166	$72.6K	69,139	63,501	+5,639	Yes	+$3,363	03-09 15:55
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	78	$70.9K	37,510	48,510	-11,000	No	+$2,902	04-01 04:55
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 3 345	27	$50.8K	50,866	0	+50,866	No	+$60	03-04 05:36
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	47	$49.9K	26,542	26,542	+0	No	+$417	03-05 00:10
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	67	$47.6K	26,670	30,370	-3,700	No	+$3,158	03-26 20:55
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$43.0K	387,667	387,667	+0	No	+$401	06-20 23:41
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	86	$38.9K	37,471	16,448	+21,023	Yes	+$6,664	09-19 20:11
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 4 546	23	$37.7K	37,748	0	+37,748	No	+$58	03-05 05:22
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	13	$37.6K	38,022	0	+38,022	No	+$383	03-05 17:25
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	18	$37.1K	42,471	42,471	-0	Yes	-$20,161	09-11 13:40
usisrael strike yemen by march 7	4	$30.2K	30,262	0	+30,262	No	+$30	03-10 06:04
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	36	$27.2K	9,258	22,275	-13,017	open	—	08-28 10:52
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	29	$26.1K	27,240	0	+27,240	No	+$90	02-24 11:16
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 8	231	$24.5K	24,975	10,337	+14,638	Yes	-$3,590	03-10 08:54
iranhezbollah strike on cyprus by march 7	7	$24.1K	24,161	0	+24,161	No	+$34	03-10 10:49
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	171	$24.0K	19,354	5,534	+13,820	No	+$819	04-04 05:10
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	52	$23.7K	19,979	11,087	+8,891	No	+$3,166	04-06 05:11
will another country strike iran by march 7 528	8	$22.7K	22,767	0	+22,767	No	+$62	03-08 05:00
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	33	$21.9K	32,924	40,136	-7,212	Yes	-$4,035	04-03 16:17
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	13	$20.0K	20,639	0	+20,639	No	+$678	06-02 13:19
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	7	$19.9K	10,118	10,118	+0	No	+$25	03-05 00:10
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$17.4K	18,900	0	+18,900	No	+$1,512	05-03 22:26
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	26	$15.6K	18,490	0	+18,490	No	+$2,898	04-08 15:01
highest temperature in seoul on march 3 2026 12corhigher	26	$14.4K	14,389	0	+14,389	No	+$17	03-03 13:06
highest temperature in seoul on march 3 2026 11c	6	$14.2K	14,227	0	+14,227	No	+$41	03-03 13:16
will uae strike iran by march 31	18	$13.1K	16,319	0	+16,319	No	+$3,249	04-01 08:12
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	57	$11.8K	26,969	26,126	+842	No	-$2,772	03-18 05:01
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	99	$11.6K	12,780	0	+12,780	No	+$1,179	03-27 09:36
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 11 311	277	$11.0K	14,712	0	+14,712	Yes	+$71	01-12 04:58
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	31	$11.0K	7,000	6,000	+1,000	open	—	09-27 12:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 16:33:30	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	3,313	92¢	$3,048	0x965f0f…
10-23 14:47:36	Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	No	SELL	1,983	72¢	$1,428	0x4cad9d…
10-20 03:35:59	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,426	74¢	$2,532	0x3fef6b…
10-18 18:54:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,500	47¢	$705	0xb5f356…
10-15 21:02:54	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	64	71¢	$46	0xeb881e…
10-15 20:32:57	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	71¢	$36	0xe9cc9d…
10-15 20:32:56	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	71¢	$36	0x2a071e…
10-15 20:32:51	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	336	71¢	$238	0x50b9c7…
10-03 10:38:32	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0xaa015b…
10-03 10:03:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,278	62¢	$792	0x4cfff1…
10-02 20:18:23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	62¢	$1,240	0x0a8a63…
09-27 12:35:26	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	2,400	85¢	$2,040	0x3ecc20…
09-27 12:34:57	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	3,600	85¢	$3,060	0x3f8375…
09-19 20:21:32	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$3	0xa30735…
09-19 20:11:08	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	68	81¢	$55	0x8b193a…
09-19 20:10:54	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	59	81¢	$48	0x387522…
09-19 19:05:33	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,010	78¢	$788	0x4a16a8…
09-19 19:05:33	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	314	78¢	$245	0x3e8302…
09-19 19:05:24	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x2e341e…
09-19 19:05:11	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	167	78¢	$130	0xa2f541…
09-19 19:05:11	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x2aaf4a…
09-19 19:05:11	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	349	78¢	$273	0x1e1023…
09-19 19:05:08	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x1adeb3…
09-19 14:39:50	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	3,000	74¢	$2,220	0x3b2a35…
09-19 14:39:03	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0xf26cfd…
09-19 14:36:12	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0x2594a5…
09-19 14:29:56	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	243	74¢	$180	0x9b112c…
09-19 14:27:20	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0x9529d9…
09-19 14:25:15	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	68	74¢	$50	0x5daf5d…
09-19 14:22:44	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	27	74¢	$20	0xa6e596…
09-19 14:19:39	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0xea6f0d…
09-19 14:19:18	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0x78ed7a…
09-19 14:18:14	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	4	74¢	$3	0x5767fd…
09-19 14:17:11	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	135	74¢	$100	0xe216c5…
09-19 14:16:21	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0x0991c8…
09-19 14:09:42	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	123	74¢	$91	0x0e3be3…
09-19 14:08:30	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0x19276e…
09-19 14:06:48	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	2,135	74¢	$1,580	0x471082…
09-19 14:05:35	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	135	74¢	$100	0x1fb7bf…
09-19 14:02:57	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,846	25¢	$453	0x802ee2…
09-19 10:11:07	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,248	75¢	$936	0xd333a1…
09-19 10:10:49	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,500	75¢	$1,125	0xb91779…
09-19 09:58:58	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	2,979	75¢	$2,234	0xe0d400…
09-19 09:57:59	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0x9b0463…
09-19 09:56:56	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	197	75¢	$148	0x8a7b0c…
09-19 09:52:55	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	62	75¢	$46	0x2045f9…
09-19 09:52:53	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	93	75¢	$70	0x238f35…
09-19 09:52:38	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	92	75¢	$69	0x2ee937…
09-19 09:52:34	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	569	75¢	$427	0xeda520…
09-16 07:28:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	686	1¢	$5	0x490cae…
09-16 07:28:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,522	1¢	$74	0x8f5118…
09-15 15:30:22	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	SELL	800	98¢	$782	0x446bf5…
09-15 00:09:48	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	835	87¢	$727	0x198538…
09-14 21:23:27	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	12	87¢	$10	0x128e35…
09-14 19:23:24	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x5d4a66…
09-14 17:58:13	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	12	87¢	$10	0x0612e3…
09-14 17:58:10	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2,137	87¢	$1,859	0x57b68d…
09-14 15:24:34	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1,749	98¢	$1,707	0x7e6f60…
09-14 14:13:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4,390	16¢	$702	0xa1b652…
09-14 13:14:21	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	SELL	251	98¢	$245	0x17a6d6…
09-14 00:24:31	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,819	97¢	$1,765	0x3ab64b…
09-14 00:06:09	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	1,000	88¢	$880	0x5a133d…
09-14 00:05:51	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	140	89¢	$125	0x27120a…
09-14 00:05:49	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	450	89¢	$400	0x901a5a…
09-14 00:05:49	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	400	89¢	$356	0x715438…
09-14 00:05:49	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x0277f2…
09-13 19:14:21	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	204	74¢	$151	0x8f0f4d…
09-13 18:41:21	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	117	93¢	$109	0x745d6f…
09-13 18:41:21	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x4d0459…
09-13 12:06:49	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,021	49¢	$500	0xd6c2c8…
09-13 03:11:04	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on September 14?	No	BUY	51	60¢	$30	0xd0c26b…
09-12 17:14:22	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0xe443de…
09-12 09:27:57	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	17	48¢	$8	0xf86278…
09-12 03:33:16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	14¢	$22	0xd717f7…
09-11 20:12:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	13¢	$16	0x630635…
09-11 20:12:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	189	13¢	$25	0xb6f128…
09-11 20:00:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	13¢	$3	0x8fcdc8…
09-11 20:00:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	13¢	$4	0x4e743c…
09-11 20:00:30	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	13¢	$4	0xb0f5f5…
09-11 19:31:07	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	187	63¢	$118	0xd945e1…
09-11 13:40:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	35,423	20¢	$7,085	0x0db828…
09-11 13:39:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5,000	20¢	$1,000	0x64e327…
09-11 13:39:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	123	20¢	$25	0x23a124…
09-11 13:37:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1,903	20¢	$381	0x544bad…
09-11 13:37:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x273767…
09-11 13:36:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	11	20¢	$2	0xab5e2f…
09-11 13:19:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,051	18¢	$189	0xe964a0…
09-11 13:19:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	736	18¢	$132	0xd74ce2…
09-11 13:19:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	506	18¢	$91	0x2dcad3…
09-11 13:19:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4,997	18¢	$899	0x6aa287…
09-11 13:19:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,210	18¢	$218	0xbde132…
09-11 13:09:51	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	SELL	98	24¢	$24	0x6a2daf…
09-11 10:26:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	4,000	86¢	$3,440	0x140c8d…
09-11 08:43:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	570	14¢	$80	0x2b0f6e…
09-11 07:52:39	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	SELL	2	28¢	$1	0x122eb9…
09-11 07:32:04	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	SELL	2	28¢	$0	0x988f01…
09-11 07:31:57	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	SELL	11	28¢	$3	0x22af39…
09-11 07:31:54	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	SELL	7	28¢	$2	0x2735e9…
09-11 07:31:40	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x06b1b9…
09-11 07:31:37	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x2d1ef7…