Murky-Overview — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$572

Unrealized P&L

-$46

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$8.53K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$155

Open exposure

$522

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 06-10 09:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

84% 0% $-572

Other

16% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+880	$387	44¢	$392	+$4	05-29 09:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes		+2,000	$180	6¢	$130	$-50	06-10 09:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	4	$2.8K	3,497	3,497	+0	open	—	05-25 23:02
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$923	778	778	+0	open	—	02-28 19:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$762	0	769	-769	Yes	$-8	05-09 09:21
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	3	$626	370	884	-514	open	—	01-15 19:41
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$492	340	340	+0	open	—	04-05 13:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$398	453	1,215	-762	Yes	$-564	05-08 19:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	1	$387	880	0	+880	open	—	05-29 09:28
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	2	$305	1,053	1,053	+0	open	—	02-26 12:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	13	$280	5,500	0	+5,500	open	—	06-01 13:22
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	4	$267	435	435	+0	open	—	05-16 14:09
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	2	$200	1,264	0	+1,264	open	—	03-02 12:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	2	$200	2,344	0	+2,344	open	—	05-27 11:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$180	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	06-10 09:37
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by february 1	2	$144	100	100	+0	open	—	01-31 23:55
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	2	$108	417	417	+0	open	—	04-20 12:46
another 7pt0 or above earthquake by january 31 2026	3	$100	58	58	+0	open	—	01-31 23:55
Over $500k committed to the Fluent public sale?	1	$100	404	0	+404	open	—	04-08 14:03
will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of march 113 384 528 915 639 242 637	1	$50	157	0	+157	open	—	03-02 11:33
Over $1M committed to the Fluent public sale?	1	$50	156	0	+156	open	—	04-08 14:05
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	1	$50	217	0	+217	open	—	03-02 15:19
israel and saudi arabia normalize relations by march 31	2	$50	581	0	+581	open	—	01-15 21:09
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by march 31 117 352	1	$11	33	0	+33	open	—	01-16 12:35
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	1	$5	294	0	+294	open	—	02-18 13:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 09:37:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,000	8¢	$80	0x064662…
06-08 11:13:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x983a6d…
06-01 13:22:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1,369	4¢	$55	0xa26bba…
06-01 13:18:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$40	0x4ab55b…
06-01 13:18:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x43aa16…
06-01 13:14:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xbaab62…
06-01 13:13:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0x196aeb…
06-01 10:19:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	2,000	5¢	$100	0xc99b1c…
05-29 09:28:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	880	44¢	$387	0x4b8e28…
05-28 11:57:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	866	8¢	$69	0xeb6d8d…
05-28 11:55:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x921ab8…
05-28 11:53:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xb1e26c…
05-28 11:35:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	82	8¢	$7	0x1a6f0d…
05-28 11:23:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xd45ff3…
05-28 11:11:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x380f76…
05-28 11:01:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	34	8¢	$3	0x35a15b…
05-27 11:32:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	1,662	6¢	$100	0x46ad95…
05-26 11:36:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	682	15¢	$100	0x1f10e1…
05-25 23:02:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	No	SELL	2,659	89¢	$2,359	0x9faa9c…
05-25 22:54:43	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	No	SELL	838	33¢	$277	0x826081…
05-25 12:09:57	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	No	BUY	2,659	4¢	$100	0x8f11dc…
05-23 22:12:09	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	No	BUY	838	12¢	$100	0xfea977…
05-16 14:09:00	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	315	46¢	$145	0xb05c11…
05-14 16:38:27	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x83f9d4…
05-14 16:38:11	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	100	19¢	$19	0xfc014d…
05-14 16:30:14	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	435	23¢	$100	0x40ebbc…
05-09 09:21:57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	769	99¢	$762	0x07b8fa…
05-08 19:19:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,215	25¢	$298	0xa6942d…
05-08 19:12:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	453	22¢	$100	0x2dd4f8…
04-20 12:46:56	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	417	14¢	$58	0xbf2bc1…
04-15 21:21:38	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	417	12¢	$50	0x0860c1…
04-08 14:05:11	Over $1M committed to the Fluent public sale?	No	BUY	156	32¢	$50	0x16c2fe…
04-08 14:03:29	Over $500k committed to the Fluent public sale?	No	BUY	404	25¢	$100	0x05e93c…
04-05 13:12:09	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	SELL	340	92¢	$312	0x889d46…
03-23 20:26:13	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	340	53¢	$180	0xf35281…
03-02 15:19:25	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	BUY	217	23¢	$50	0x6a47fb…
03-02 12:40:21	us iran nuclear deal by march 31	Yes	BUY	676	15¢	$100	0x691fdc…
03-02 11:33:07	will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of march 113 384 528 915 639 242 637	No	BUY	157	32¢	$50	0x8d82c5…
03-02 10:18:37	us iran nuclear deal by march 31	Yes	BUY	588	17¢	$100	0x987d61…
02-28 19:32:19	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	778	93¢	$723	0xf10f21…
02-26 12:10:00	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,053	15¢	$158	0xaa1bae…
02-18 19:41:06	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,053	14¢	$147	0x8016f8…
02-18 13:05:26	us strikes iran by february 18 2026	Yes	BUY	294	2¢	$5	0x36eab7…
01-31 23:55:40	another 7pt0 or above earthquake by january 31 2026	No	SELL	58	98¢	$57	0x4df020…
01-31 23:55:18	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by february 1	Yes	SELL	100	87¢	$87	0x3eee11…
01-25 13:22:30	another 7pt0 or above earthquake by january 31 2026	No	BUY	28	76¢	$21	0xf01482…
01-25 13:22:06	another 7pt0 or above earthquake by january 31 2026	No	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0xff2e68…
01-25 13:17:28	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by february 1	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xfdb58f…
01-16 12:35:50	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by march 31 117 352	Yes	BUY	33	34¢	$11	0x643e76…
01-15 21:09:22	israel and saudi arabia normalize relations by march 31	Yes	BUY	278	9¢	$25	0x1b3810…
01-15 21:09:22	israel and saudi arabia normalize relations by march 31	Yes	BUY	304	8¢	$25	0x038ef3…
01-15 19:43:16	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	778	26¢	$200	0xbafbec…
01-15 19:41:10	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	370	51¢	$189	0x723766…
01-05 13:50:29	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	370	54¢	$200	0xc7dda6…
01-05 13:46:39	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	SELL	514	46¢	$237	0x852c93…