Insidious-Savior — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.62K

Unrealized P&L

-$11

Hit rate

17.3%

Resolved

1,816

Trades

4,906

lifetime

Volume

$86.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$64

8 positions

First seen

2026-03-08

last 10-29 14:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 140 days

Categories

Politics

48% 11% -$1,138

Other

38% 8% -$1,171

Crypto

7% 49% -$221

Tech

5% 9% -$87

Sports

2% 15% -$4

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 59 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	+50	$42	81¢	$40	-$2	10-29 10:00
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+20	$12	60¢	$12	-$1	10-29 14:02
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	+50	$12	18¢	$9	-$3	10-26 16:04
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	+50	$8	4¢	$2	-$6	10-28 16:33
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+0	$0	92¢	$0	+$0	06-29 18:56
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	+0	$0	96¢	$0	+$0	06-17 20:51
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	+0	$0	30¢	$0	$0	08-01 11:33
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+0	$0	2¢	$0	$0	06-30 22:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	48	$8.5K	4,573	4,573	+0	Yes	-$241	06-11 19:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	9	$2.8K	2,044	2,044	+0	Yes	$0	06-07 12:52
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	137	$2.5K	1,659	1,244	+415	Yes	-$352	04-06 03:46
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$2.4K	1,846	1,846	+0	Yes	+$0	06-08 04:41
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	7	$2.4K	1,600	1,600	+0	No	+$0	06-10 02:33
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	2	$2.4K	1,463	1,463	+0	No	-$15	06-08 10:35
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	11	$2.4K	1,466	1,666	-200	No	-$22	03-21 20:24
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	4	$798	520	520	+0	No	-$2	06-01 17:47
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	4	$797	572	572	+0	Yes	-$3	06-03 20:19
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	64	$772	471	520	-49	Yes	+$13	04-06 02:24
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	45	$758	542	287	+255	Yes	-$229	04-01 10:52
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	17	$704	367	348	+19	No	$0	03-30 03:28
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	4	$591	397	397	+0	Yes	-$3	03-18 10:12
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	4	$499	322	322	+0	Down	-$1	05-29 17:00
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	7	$464	602	602	+0	No	-$3	06-07 02:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$412	751	751	+0	No	+$0	05-31 15:00
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$411	478	478	+0	Yes	+$10	03-21 01:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	2	$406	282	282	+0	Yes	+$0	06-04 00:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?	2	$398	222	222	+0	No	-$2	06-03 05:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$397	270	270	+0	Yes	-$3	06-01 17:31
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$396	287	287	+0	Yes	+$0	03-20 13:51
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	2	$395	253	253	+0	Yes	-$4	06-03 08:20
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	9	$383	250	250	+0	No	+$0	07-22 12:35
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?	4	$374	422	422	-0	Down	+$20	06-03 10:32
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	13	$370	234	234	+0	open	—	07-05 08:30
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	15	$328	250	250	+0	open	—	10-29 08:06
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	10	$265	204	204	+0	open	—	08-18 09:07
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	7	$258	150	150	+0	open	—	07-07 20:12
spx up or down on march 23 2026	2	$221	174	174	+0	Up	-$2	03-21 13:51
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	4	$212	200	200	+0	open	—	10-27 16:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 15:43:35	Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x41e90c…
10-29 15:18:28	Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x572a75…
10-29 15:18:25	Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x78429c…
10-29 14:31:52	Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the #2 song for 2026?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xcae4fe…
10-29 14:31:23	Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x585617…
10-29 14:31:22	Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xa3a4c6…
10-29 14:17:41	Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xc55970…
10-29 14:02:14	Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x2dbf3e…
10-29 13:39:52	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x9e4252…
10-29 13:39:50	Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 14 and December 20, 2026?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x606b31…
10-29 13:39:47	Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 14 and December 20, 2026?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x3d9845…
10-29 13:07:47	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	18	9¢	$2	0xdd18d4…
10-29 13:07:38	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0xdd3098…
10-29 12:55:19	Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?	Yes	SELL	17	7¢	$1	0x8b3a4a…
10-29 12:54:31	Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	7¢	$1	0x5df407…
10-29 12:54:17	Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xe024fd…
10-29 11:25:52	Will Colman Domingo be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	21	20¢	$4	0x7f7fcc…
10-29 10:51:20	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x0fdb14…
10-29 10:36:31	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xe70ccd…
10-29 10:28:34	Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0xfa7a7e…
10-29 10:27:05	Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x6992e0…
10-29 10:00:26	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x5fcf32…
10-29 08:54:07	Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0xf0e5fb…
10-29 08:53:59	Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x2810e0…
10-29 08:44:37	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x501301…
10-29 08:29:58	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xa957a0…
10-29 08:06:28	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$9	0x298782…
10-29 07:50:50	Will Colman Domingo be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0x16bcf0…
10-29 07:32:19	Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	18	88¢	$16	0x31b7a3…
10-29 07:32:17	Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	18	88¢	$16	0x2ddd21…
10-29 06:58:01	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xf2ed5b…
10-29 05:53:53	Government shutdown by December 12?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xf868c5…
10-29 05:28:14	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xaf4873…
10-29 04:53:13	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x49bba6…
10-29 03:54:07	Will Gemini Carbon debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x6c03ad…
10-29 03:44:59	Will Gemini Carbon debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x073b06…
10-29 03:33:47	Will Gemini Carbon debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x536740…
10-29 03:22:50	Will Gemini Carbon debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xebf54a…
10-29 02:50:14	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0x74e4b1…
10-29 02:50:11	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x72ee00…
10-29 01:48:23	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 BBC Sports Personality of the Year award?	No	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0x0e8c15…
10-29 01:48:22	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 BBC Sports Personality of the Year award?	No	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0xc84dfa…
10-29 01:05:44	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	No	SELL	50	59¢	$30	0x404c4b…
10-29 00:31:53	Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x98013a…
10-28 23:56:49	Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x456e34…
10-28 22:54:19	Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 51.0 or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xad0ef9…
10-28 22:40:25	Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 51.0 or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x05aee5…
10-28 21:57:55	Will United Torah Judaism be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x197bcd…
10-28 21:55:08	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?	No	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0xbcede7…
10-28 21:36:52	Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xaebb92…
10-28 20:40:22	Will United Torah Judaism be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x981795…
10-28 20:36:08	Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0xdcbffa…
10-28 20:11:31	Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	14	40¢	$6	0x352249…
10-28 20:11:29	Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	6	40¢	$2	0x92bc52…
10-28 19:45:08	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	22	87¢	$19	0xbdd409…
10-28 19:19:25	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	28	87¢	$25	0xfd7e8b…
10-28 18:44:35	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xb32ae4…
10-28 18:42:25	Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xb09c00…
10-28 18:41:23	Will Yisrael Beiteinu be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xe085d7…
10-28 18:15:16	Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x56b871…
10-28 17:06:23	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xc0842a…
10-28 16:49:34	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x1d5c5c…
10-28 16:33:40	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0xf2f92b…
10-28 16:29:31	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	SELL	16	66¢	$10	0xdf7206…
10-28 16:29:31	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0x6666ae…
10-28 16:29:04	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	No	SELL	2	13¢	$0	0x89fd11…
10-28 16:28:55	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	No	SELL	33	13¢	$4	0x4961bd…
10-28 16:28:40	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	No	SELL	15	13¢	$2	0xaa3870…
10-28 16:03:14	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0x0d44bd…
10-28 15:57:11	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0x6deab2…
10-28 15:38:13	Will "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x720c61…
10-28 15:05:52	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xcdca0b…
10-28 14:31:28	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0x4b317c…
10-28 14:31:25	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0xd86315…
10-28 14:00:02	Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Iowa?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x69bab5…
10-28 14:00:01	Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Iowa?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x1b23ea…
10-28 13:03:40	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xe5c3ae…
10-28 12:25:43	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	No	SELL	50	39¢	$20	0x90ff34…
10-28 11:02:56	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	SELL	50	64¢	$32	0x403e3f…
10-28 11:02:55	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x0fc28a…
10-28 10:19:29	Will "The Tuners" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xdb1d21…
10-28 09:44:11	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0xedac12…
10-28 09:44:10	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0xc2bd54…
10-28 08:58:16	Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	41	47¢	$19	0xeaebe2…
10-28 08:58:14	Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	41	47¢	$19	0x07b989…
10-28 08:23:25	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x74d790…
10-28 06:19:08	Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xff802a…
10-28 05:50:34	Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by November 15?	Yes	SELL	0	32¢	$0	0x998178…
10-28 05:50:32	Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by November 15?	Yes	BUY	0	33¢	$0	0x218150…
10-28 05:37:52	Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x17f4db…
10-28 04:58:56	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	50	76¢	$38	0xf8c3d9…
10-28 04:58:53	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x5dc829…
10-28 03:35:48	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	No	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x09cefa…
10-28 02:20:06	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xdc20fc…
10-28 02:03:50	Will Amy Hunt win the 2026 BBC Sports Personality of the Year award?	No	SELL	10	75¢	$8	0x49f5fd…
10-28 01:52:38	Will Amy Hunt win the 2026 BBC Sports Personality of the Year award?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x3ab8c6…
10-28 01:39:42	Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xe5b134…
10-27 23:28:42	Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0xea869f…
10-27 22:43:24	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	44	42¢	$18	0x093706…
10-27 21:47:15	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x3158f6…