Afraid-Trout — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.03K

Unrealized P&L

-$127

Hit rate

62.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$10.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$181

Open exposure

$534

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-23

last 06-07 19:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Politics

70% 71% +$937

Sports

21% 0% -$2,200

Tech

4% 0% -$400

Crypto

3% 21% -$167

Other

2% 0% -$201

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-07).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes		+10,000	$269	4¢	$365	+$96	05-20 15:04
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes		+22,568	$392	1¢	$169	-$223	05-20 10:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$2.3K	1,462	1,462	+0	No	+$301	05-20 10:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$1.4K	1,051	1,051	+0	No	+$473	05-24 20:49
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$1.2K	133,333	0	+133,333	No	-$1,200	05-25 13:02
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$1.1K	617	617	+0	No	+$68	04-26 18:33
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$629	37,000	37,000	+0	open	—	05-20 12:10
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$600	100,000	0	+100,000	No	-$600	05-20 10:56
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	2	$481	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$63	05-16 22:46
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$400	100,000	0	+100,000	No	-$400	05-20 11:08
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	1	$400	2,465	0	+2,465	Yes	-$400	05-25 13:56
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	5	$392	22,568	0	+22,568	open	—	05-20 10:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$332	0	481	-481	Yes	+$332	05-20 10:17
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	10	$269	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	05-20 15:04
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	1	$200	1,322	0	+1,322	No	-$200	05-11 03:58
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	4	$190	3,000	3,000	+0	No	-$172	05-16 22:58
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?	1	$100	444	0	+444	No	-$100	04-23 20:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 19:35 UTC	3	$62	2,041	39	+2,002	Down	-$18	04-23 19:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 19:55 UTC	1	$50	5,000	0	+5,000	Down	-$50	04-23 20:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	2	$31	362	0	+362	Down	-$31	04-24 20:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 09:05 UTC	1	$30	115	0	+115	Down	-$30	04-24 09:05
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?	1	$29	503	0	+503	No	-$29	06-07 19:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 19:10 UTC	1	$24	45	0	+45	Up	+$22	04-23 19:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 19:50 UTC	1	$20	56	0	+56	Down	-$20	04-23 19:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 07:40 UTC	2	$13	24	23	+1	Down	-$7	04-24 07:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 18:55 UTC	1	$10	42	0	+42	Down	-$10	04-23 18:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 18:05 UTC	1	$10	167	0	+167	Up	-$10	04-23 18:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 18:00 UTC	1	$10	14	0	+14	Up	+$4	04-23 18:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 20:00 UTC	1	$10	86	0	+86	Up	-$10	04-23 20:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 20:20 UTC	1	$10	111	0	+111	Down	-$10	04-23 20:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	1	$5	13	0	+13	Down	+$8	04-24 20:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 19:45 UTC	1	$5	16	0	+16	Up	-$5	04-23 19:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 19:13:52	Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?	Yes	BUY	503	6¢	$29	0x5be2dc…
05-25 13:56:44	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2,465	16¢	$400	0x43a836…
05-25 13:02:20	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	55,556	1¢	$500	0xb1bd8c…
05-24 20:49:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	1,051	90¢	$946	0xb58621…
05-24 00:32:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1,051	45¢	$473	0xcd99fe…
05-20 15:04:26	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xc895bc…
05-20 13:30:36	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	145	3¢	$4	0xd9c8b4…
05-20 12:56:36	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	44	3¢	$1	0x5e87d5…
05-20 12:29:07	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x4a4df0…
05-20 12:10:38	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	37,000	1¢	$296	0x951279…
05-20 11:24:12	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	27,778	1¢	$250	0x0159dc…
05-20 11:12:47	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	210	3¢	$6	0x70ce32…
05-20 11:09:45	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50,000	1¢	$450	0x15f285…
05-20 11:08:34	Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100,000	0¢	$400	0x222049…
05-20 10:56:59	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	190	3¢	$5	0x46a046…
05-20 10:56:48	Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100,000	1¢	$600	0x404ba1…
05-20 10:55:31	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	56	3¢	$2	0x2f5f88…
05-20 10:45:07	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x0487e7…
05-20 10:42:22	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	551	2¢	$9	0x47d1a4…
05-20 10:40:09	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x4039b7…
05-20 10:36:29	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x0e002c…
05-20 10:31:19	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	9,329	3¢	$251	0x8bff4a…
05-20 10:17:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	481	69¢	$332	0xb41c7e…
05-20 10:17:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,462	89¢	$1,301	0x9c3ddd…
05-20 10:14:22	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	11,111	2¢	$200	0x71201f…
05-20 10:13:47	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	37,000	1¢	$333	0xd85060…
05-20 10:09:25	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	8,871	2¢	$151	0x1c7431…
05-20 10:08:18	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2,025	2¢	$32	0x9fb666…
05-16 22:58:25	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,000	0¢	$9	0x1d7c83…
05-16 22:46:46	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	27¢	$272	0x9235a3…
05-16 22:42:52	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,260	6¢	$138	0xc06aef…
05-16 22:42:50	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	540	6¢	$31	0xa97324…
05-16 22:42:50	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x85c4c4…
05-16 22:13:52	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	21¢	$209	0xfd489b…
05-11 03:58:56	Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	1,322	15¢	$200	0xf35fa9…
04-26 18:33:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	617	92¢	$568	0x134904…
04-24 20:20:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x07dde6…
04-24 20:18:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	300	2¢	$6	0xd248a0…
04-24 20:16:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0xd55aca…
04-24 15:44:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,462	68¢	$1,000	0x7c7a3e…
04-24 09:05:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 09:05 UTC	Up	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0xc979bb…
04-24 07:44:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 07:40 UTC	Up	SELL	23	14¢	$3	0xe9ac64…
04-24 07:43:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 07:40 UTC	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x1ae5c1…
04-23 20:38:30	Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?	Yes	BUY	444	23¢	$100	0x64e63c…
04-23 20:23:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 20:20 UTC	Up	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x9f26cc…
04-23 20:13:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	617	81¢	$500	0xb629e3…
04-23 20:03:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	86	12¢	$10	0xf2f7b8…
04-23 20:00:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 19:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5,000	1¢	$50	0x721c8a…
04-23 19:50:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 19:50 UTC	Up	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0xcd2146…
04-23 19:46:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x94e4af…
04-23 19:40:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 19:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2,000	1¢	$20	0x71a5cc…
04-23 19:37:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 19:35 UTC	Up	SELL	39	57¢	$22	0x0c4c38…
04-23 19:36:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 19:35 UTC	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x950dfc…
04-23 19:14:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 19:10 UTC	Up	BUY	45	52¢	$24	0x445e1d…
04-23 18:56:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 18:55 UTC	Up	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x27be62…
04-23 18:07:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 18:05 UTC	Down	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xd945a1…
04-23 18:02:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x1584c0…