Near-Experimentation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.8%

Resolved

413

Trades

1,140

lifetime

Volume

$37.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-20

last 07-21 05:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 81 days

Categories

Other

43% 90% -$266

Crypto

33% 93% +$184

Politics

16% 95% +$82

Sports

7% 87% -$3

Tech

1% 100% +$7

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-21).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5?	8	$376	212	212	+0	Yes	-$1	05-04 20:07
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	15	$375	202	202	+0	No	+$3	04-28 03:44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	8	$345	181	181	+0	No	+$4	04-27 14:09
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-05-06?	7	$319	168	168	+0	No	+$10	05-06 06:10
Ethereum Up or Down on May 4?	8	$297	150	150	+0	Up	+$3	05-04 16:32
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	6	$293	150	150	+0	No	+$3	03-25 15:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	6	$285	150	150	+0	No	+$3	04-28 21:00
bitcoin above 68k on march 14	7	$285	146	146	+0	Yes	+$2	03-14 16:29
bitcoin above 76k on april 24	5	$275	150	149	+1	Yes	+$2	04-24 04:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	8	$239	125	125	+0	No	+$2	04-28 14:30
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4?	6	$237	120	120	+0	Up	+$3	05-04 16:32
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 6?	12	$235	121	121	-0	Yes	+$1	05-04 22:41
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	5	$230	117	117	+0	No	+$2	04-28 14:30
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?	7	$224	117	117	+0	No	+$3	04-28 16:22
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 260 279	5	$224	115	114	+0	No	+$3	04-24 03:29
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	5	$221	117	117	+0	Yes	+$3	04-27 16:10
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	6	$220	115	115	+0	No	+$3	04-30 09:37
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	8	$216	113	113	+0	No	+$3	04-29 16:34
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	6	$213	111	111	+0	No	+$3	04-27 03:09
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	5	$210	95	120	-25	No	+$1	03-13 22:45
Iran leadership change by April 30?	6	$201	103	103	+0	No	+$1	04-30 00:09
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	1	$200	339	0	+339	No	-$200	06-13 21:33
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	5	$197	100	100	+0	No	+$2	04-15 23:29
bitcoin above 74k on march 14	4	$197	100	100	+0	No	+$2	03-14 16:27
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	4	$196	100	100	+0	No	+$2	03-27 05:46
lol fox1 tsw 2026 03 18	4	$196	100	100	+0	BNK FEARX	+$1	03-18 18:07
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	3	$194	100	100	+0	No	+$2	04-23 04:34
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 400 419	4	$194	100	100	+0	No	+$3	03-13 14:51
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	5	$193	100	100	+0	No	+$2	04-27 06:34
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	3	$192	100	100	+0	No	+$3	04-15 20:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 05:41:54	Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	41	91¢	$37	0x229178…
07-19 22:26:12	Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x075a91…
07-19 22:23:48	Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xca06c2…
07-19 20:51:07	Will Eminem perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x53b994…
06-24 16:06:55	Will Anuel AA perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x0ca07c…
06-21 03:27:55	Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0xe1aeb2…
06-18 16:17:52	Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x3ac9c4…
06-18 14:47:40	Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 U.S. Open?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x8e3dbf…
06-18 13:29:46	Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xffe1b6…
06-18 07:01:59	Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x4ed248…
06-18 04:50:16	Will George Walsh be the Democratic nominee for MD-01?	No	SELL	42	100¢	$41	0xcfabca…
06-18 02:03:04	Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x2b0d1e…
06-13 21:33:36	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	339	59¢	$200	0xc8cde3…
06-13 06:42:40	lol gen kt 2026 06 13 game handicap away 2pt5	KT Rolster	BUY	47	96¢	$45	0x910dff…
06-04 10:44:25	Will Anuel AA perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x6db6b2…
06-04 08:16:34	Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	36	93¢	$33	0x92b943…
06-01 19:59:49	Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark?	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0xebd962…
06-01 08:12:50	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	No	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0x9d038b…
06-01 08:07:39	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xfd57c4…
06-01 08:07:04	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0xa42ca7…
06-01 08:06:24	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x9900d5…
06-01 08:05:50	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0xdeb921…
06-01 08:05:43	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	No	SELL	13	88¢	$12	0x9fb8f4…
06-01 08:05:42	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	No	SELL	2	88¢	$1	0xfcde68…
05-30 21:23:03	Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?	No	SELL	30	91¢	$28	0xe5a119…
05-29 10:11:26	Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?	No	SELL	42	96¢	$40	0xf7649e…
05-25 23:02:44	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	SELL	34	88¢	$30	0x471db3…
05-21 06:38:51	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	17	96¢	$16	0x80781f…
05-20 05:54:21	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	41	95¢	$39	0x0c2ac9…
05-20 05:53:49	Will Latonya Reeves be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05?	No	SELL	41	90¢	$37	0x64815e…
05-19 02:41:45	Will Hasbro (HAS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	41	96¢	$39	0x098a0a…
05-17 02:03:35	Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Yes	SELL	41	95¢	$39	0x8c53ef…
05-17 02:02:41	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb93f78…
05-16 10:30:29	Will Amy Phan West advance from the CA-45 primary election?	No	SELL	42	98¢	$41	0x54a27b…
05-14 02:15:00	Will Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	41	91¢	$37	0x80856c…
05-13 22:25:26	Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?	No	SELL	8	94¢	$8	0xfff18d…
05-13 17:22:01	Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$34	0xc53660…
05-13 05:31:34	Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Yes	SELL	43	92¢	$40	0x52e6a6…
05-12 21:23:16	Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x8624ea…
05-12 03:21:12	Will Rodez AF achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?	No	SELL	31	88¢	$27	0x032de7…
05-12 03:21:04	Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Yes	SELL	42	94¢	$39	0xf681db…
05-10 20:25:41	Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	41	99¢	$41	0x1cf271…
05-10 06:30:51	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	No	SELL	42	83¢	$35	0xe9b8a8…
05-10 06:30:12	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Truist Championship?	No	SELL	41	96¢	$39	0x005acf…
05-09 14:19:20	Will BW Industrial Holdings not IPO before June 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	90¢	$39	0x8112c2…
05-09 14:18:03	Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	30	88¢	$27	0x9e8b0f…
05-09 14:17:26	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	SELL	30	89¢	$27	0x549063…
05-08 16:09:41	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Truist Championship?	No	BUY	41	94¢	$38	0x71d870…
05-08 16:09:16	Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x4b2879…
05-08 14:37:10	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x742e0c…
05-08 14:33:38	Will Latonya Reeves be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05?	No	BUY	41	88¢	$36	0x821b8d…
05-08 14:33:38	Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?	No	BUY	41	84¢	$34	0x659ffa…
05-08 05:16:39	Will Carolina Hurricanes advance to the Conference Finals of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	31	96¢	$30	0xb4caf7…
05-08 05:15:55	NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Hurricanes vs. Flyers	Canes	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0x94614d…
05-08 05:15:17	Will Encore Medical’s market cap be between $45M and $50M at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	42	91¢	$38	0x86226d…
05-07 21:29:40	Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x037885…
05-07 21:29:40	Will Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	41	90¢	$37	0x0316b3…
05-07 21:29:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9?	Yes	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xc2070e…
05-07 21:26:20	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	Yes	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0xb34009…
05-07 21:26:10	Will George Walsh be the Democratic nominee for MD-01?	No	BUY	42	94¢	$39	0x882dd5…
05-07 18:14:43	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	SELL	41	96¢	$39	0xb2c73b…
05-06 19:00:15	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	41	94¢	$38	0x7c4e71…
05-06 19:00:01	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?	Yes	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0xbab4ec…
05-06 18:04:10	Will Eminem perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0xae9fda…
05-06 18:03:40	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x100677…
05-06 17:48:16	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?	Yes	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x89af2f…
05-06 17:43:42	Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark?	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x67084f…
05-06 17:42:44	Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Yes	BUY	41	94¢	$39	0xefa359…
05-06 17:42:42	Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	41	96¢	$40	0xbf97e4…
05-06 17:42:42	Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?	No	BUY	43	87¢	$37	0x71e291…
05-06 17:42:40	Will Anuel AA perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0xb03b3b…
05-06 17:38:34	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0xaa8144…
05-06 17:38:32	Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x313cfc…
05-06 12:42:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8?	Yes	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x233f31…
05-06 09:39:50	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x6c05ec…
05-06 07:00:16	Will Nara Club vs. FC Ōsaka end in a draw?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0x61b84d…
05-06 06:58:34	Will Nara Club vs. FC Ōsaka end in a draw?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x181303…
05-06 06:57:28	Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-05-06?	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0xca3bc2…
05-06 06:57:10	Will Tochigi City FC win on 2026-05-06?	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x1f0590…
05-06 06:56:42	Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-05-06?	No	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0x1d90ff…
05-06 06:56:32	Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-05-06?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x5f4d47…
05-06 06:56:28	Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-05-06?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x77cec0…
05-06 06:56:26	Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-05-06?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa01316…
05-06 06:49:32	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers	Thunder	SELL	30	95¢	$29	0x11a2d4…
05-06 06:31:10	Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-05-06?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x093cb8…
05-06 06:12:34	Will Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	41	72¢	$29	0xc18913…
05-06 06:11:34	Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	41	27¢	$11	0x99c30c…
05-06 06:11:34	Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-05-06?	No	BUY	41	91¢	$37	0x4ce802…
05-06 06:10:24	Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-05-06?	No	SELL	82	98¢	$80	0xec8341…
05-06 06:10:04	Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-05-06?	No	BUY	43	92¢	$40	0xd0fc81…
05-06 06:10:04	Will Tochigi City FC win on 2026-05-06?	No	BUY	41	94¢	$38	0x1a8a26…
05-06 06:10:00	Will RED Canids win CBLOL 2026 Split 1?	No	BUY	41	93¢	$38	0xa8d3a5…
05-06 06:09:58	Will FC Ryūkyū win on 2026-05-06?	No	SELL	83	98¢	$82	0x864a8a…
05-06 06:09:40	Will Nara Club win on 2026-05-06?	No	SELL	41	98¢	$40	0xfd4fdc…
05-06 05:47:04	Will Nara Club vs. FC Ōsaka end in a draw?	No	BUY	41	96¢	$39	0xa2a374…
05-06 05:47:02	Will Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori end in a draw?	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x9ac233…
05-06 05:46:46	Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-05-06?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0x7acdc5…
05-06 05:45:42	Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-05-06?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0x5d8bf1…
05-06 05:37:02	Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-05-06?	No	BUY	44	88¢	$39	0xed8eed…
05-06 05:36:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9?	Yes	SELL	30	98¢	$30	0xa7cc89…