Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$326

Unrealized P&L

-$46

Hit rate

80.2%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

1,115 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$14.9K

$256.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

$230

Open exposure

$473

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 09-10 13:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 142 days

Categories

Other

59% 89% +$3,741

Politics

34% 83% -$1,389

Tech

7% 94% +$395

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$32

Crypto

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No		-261	-$235	98¢	$-255	-$20	06-04 02:21
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?	No		-225	-$192	97¢	$-218	-$26	06-04 02:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	6	$2.7K	1,463	1,463	+0	No	+$114	05-28 08:05
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	5	$2.7K	1,435	1,435	+0	No	+$26	05-29 02:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	2	$1.9K	1,043	1,043	+0	No	+$112	05-10 21:05
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	3	$1.9K	962	962	+0	Yes	+$53	05-09 16:05
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	4	$1.8K	1,084	1,084	+0	Yes	-$129	06-04 02:23
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	4	$1.7K	939	939	+0	No	+$138	05-22 07:35
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	2	$1.6K	846	846	+0	No	+$41	06-11 08:05
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	3	$1.6K	1,173	560	+613	No	+$97	07-06 12:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$1.5K	837	836	+0	No	+$87	05-05 04:05
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$1.5K	843	843	+0	No	+$134	05-19 18:05
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	3	$1.5K	843	843	+0	No	+$130	05-20 05:35
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	3	$1.5K	786	786	+0	No	+$47	05-30 03:35
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?	5	$1.5K	812	812	+0	No	+$76	05-28 09:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	2	$1.5K	801	801	+0	No	+$77	05-29 20:05
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	2	$1.5K	770	770	+0	Yes	+$30	06-08 10:35
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	2	$1.5K	800	800	+0	No	-$11	06-04 02:21
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	3	$1.5K	818	818	+0	No	+$114	05-11 16:35
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	8	$1.4K	749	749	+0	Yes	+$34	04-28 10:35
spx opens up or down on march 31 2026	2	$1.4K	774	774	+0	Up	-$8	03-31 10:25
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$1.4K	706	706	+0	No	+$21	05-29 11:05
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	4	$1.4K	757	757	+0	No	-$76	09-02 18:37
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 22 183	4	$1.4K	707	707	+0	No	+$34	06-12 09:35
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	5	$1.3K	732	732	+0	No	+$89	05-13 03:35
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	2	$1.3K	685	685	+0	Yes	+$39	04-21 22:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	2	$1.3K	730	730	+0	No	+$135	05-29 21:35
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$1.3K	681	681	+0	Yes	+$38	04-27 21:35
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	2	$1.2K	657	657	+0	No	+$41	04-28 07:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026?	7	$1.2K	951	466	+484	No	+$174	05-08 13:35
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	3	$1.2K	645	645	+0	No	+$47	04-08 05:30
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$1.2K	613	613	+0	Yes	+$33	04-03 05:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-10 13:33:18	Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	404	100¢	$403	0x4ae012…
09-10 13:33:16	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	404	100¢	$403	0xce429d…
09-02 18:37:27	Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	449	78¢	$350	0x09808b…
08-25 22:35:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	377	96¢	$363	0x5fa363…
08-25 21:35:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0xd5dfb2…
08-23 16:05:57	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	295	98¢	$288	0xaaff91…
08-23 09:35:06	Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 31?	No	SELL	207	97¢	$199	0xd27807…
08-23 04:06:03	Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?	Yes	BUY	385	94¢	$364	0x975d21…
08-23 00:05:58	us x iran ceasefire continues through august 31	Yes	BUY	403	91¢	$367	0x40d198…
08-22 20:06:06	next mythos class model released by august 31 2026	No	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0xb93424…
08-22 08:06:18	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	94¢	$66	0x50b3b3…
08-22 00:06:25	Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	404	92¢	$371	0x92b70a…
08-22 00:06:25	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	94	96¢	$91	0x13a032…
08-22 00:06:24	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	404	92¢	$371	0x460884…
08-21 20:06:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	394	94¢	$371	0x6d6e3c…
08-21 20:06:00	Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	393	94¢	$368	0x38f6e7…
08-21 20:06:00	Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	195	88¢	$171	0x174fa8…
08-21 16:05:51	Will Hollie Noveletsky be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?	No	BUY	422	87¢	$367	0x445b3b…
08-21 13:05:06	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 31	No	SELL	125	97¢	$121	0x900c0c…
08-21 12:05:52	Will Eduardo Camavinga stay at Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	116	97¢	$112	0xbf66af…
08-21 12:05:52	Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?	Yes	BUY	380	97¢	$369	0x6d6510…
08-21 12:05:51	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	BUY	400	93¢	$372	0xaebe6b…
08-21 12:05:51	Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?	No	BUY	393	94¢	$372	0x85213d…
08-21 12:05:51	will russia capture bilytske by august 31 2026	No	BUY	393	94¢	$370	0x034227…
08-21 12:05:49	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	402	92¢	$370	0xc7b4a7…
08-21 12:05:49	Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?	Yes	BUY	395	93¢	$368	0xbb37ce…
08-21 12:05:49	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	No	BUY	403	92¢	$372	0x87e5ec…
08-21 12:05:48	us x iran ceasefire continues through august 25	Yes	BUY	387	95¢	$368	0xae3797…
08-21 12:05:48	will the serbian national assembly be dissolved by august 31 20260629164744651	No	BUY	195	84¢	$164	0x51c20a…
08-13 08:06:04	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	388	83¢	$322	0xf7e739…
08-13 08:06:03	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	392	82¢	$322	0x4bda7e…
08-13 04:05:58	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	No	BUY	331	82¢	$271	0x717e0e…
08-13 04:05:57	Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	323	93¢	$300	0xec5cab…
08-13 00:06:03	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0xe50c10…
08-12 04:05:52	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	396	93¢	$368	0xd00022…
08-12 04:05:51	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 31	No	BUY	332	84¢	$279	0xeef379…
08-12 04:05:51	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	No	BUY	267	84¢	$224	0x82232b…
08-12 00:06:39	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	No	BUY	397	83¢	$332	0x39610d…
08-12 00:06:37	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?	No	BUY	301	87¢	$262	0x98c05e…
08-11 16:05:49	will russia enter mykhailivka by august 31	No	BUY	239	92¢	$219	0x8f5238…
08-11 16:05:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	455	88¢	$400	0xde87dd…
08-11 00:06:12	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	412	91¢	$376	0x84e4d7…
08-11 00:06:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	404	94¢	$380	0x681c39…
08-11 00:06:12	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	396	95¢	$376	0x5c30e5…
08-10 08:05:42	will russia target kyiv by august 14 2026 20260809090411471	Yes	BUY	35	92¢	$32	0x76a3bb…
08-09 16:05:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	457	90¢	$411	0xb9ebd3…
08-09 14:35:07	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	SELL	127	97¢	$122	0x6033e7…
08-09 09:35:07	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	SELL	184	97¢	$178	0x31a136…
08-09 08:05:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	449	93¢	$417	0xaa9152…
08-09 08:05:06	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	SELL	19	97¢	$19	0x553ac0…
08-09 06:35:06	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x8ed741…
08-09 06:05:06	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	SELL	15	97¢	$14	0x224198…
08-09 04:05:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	49	95¢	$46	0x454dd8…
08-08 08:05:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	No	BUY	456	91¢	$415	0xd59ca3…
08-08 04:05:33	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	456	91¢	$415	0xf2593a…
08-07 20:05:39	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?	No	BUY	329	83¢	$273	0x5716e0…
08-07 16:05:52	Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	BUY	474	92¢	$436	0xc36a40…
08-07 04:05:34	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	436	92¢	$402	0x1b2bf3…
08-06 08:05:41	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	460	92¢	$423	0x5cb903…
08-05 20:05:38	Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	No	BUY	354	85¢	$301	0xcea688…
08-05 16:05:36	Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	170	84¢	$143	0x9fe7db…
08-05 16:05:36	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	77	93¢	$71	0x1d0963…
08-05 04:05:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	443	93¢	$412	0xc2c4ac…
08-05 00:05:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	432	93¢	$401	0x16fbcb…
08-04 16:06:26	Will 3 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?	Yes	BUY	70	96¢	$67	0x38f3fb…
08-04 04:05:38	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	447	95¢	$425	0x6914f9…
08-04 00:05:33	Will annual inflation be 3.5% in July?	No	BUY	393	83¢	$326	0x1edc5e…
08-03 16:05:44	Will PPI YoY be 5.2% in July?	No	BUY	424	90¢	$382	0x50590a…
08-02 16:05:39	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	Yes	BUY	294	91¢	$268	0x576ecc…
08-02 04:05:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	109	96¢	$105	0xc586ab…
08-01 12:05:30	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	495	93¢	$461	0x41fa16…
08-01 08:05:29	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	485	95¢	$461	0x672348…
08-01 08:05:29	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	489	95¢	$464	0x2f0e0f…
08-01 08:05:27	Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	94¢	$35	0x3c5a39…
08-01 04:05:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	327	84¢	$275	0xec9ecf…
08-01 04:05:39	Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?	Yes	BUY	483	94¢	$453	0xdc071c…
08-01 04:05:39	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	224	86¢	$193	0x84ccdf…
08-01 04:05:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	495	93¢	$461	0x66a479…
08-01 04:05:38	Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	BUY	378	85¢	$322	0x3197c4…
07-30 16:05:51	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	360	84¢	$303	0xbe5f19…
07-29 17:05:06	Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$11	0xb7044c…
07-28 21:35:05	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	36	96¢	$35	0x7e9d94…
07-28 21:05:07	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0xc2db15…
07-28 20:35:05	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	241	96¢	$232	0x00eb14…
07-28 19:05:05	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	52	96¢	$50	0xe179ae…
07-28 18:35:05	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xf83a65…
07-28 17:05:05	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x0a277e…
07-28 15:35:05	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x6e3931…
07-28 12:05:08	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	267	97¢	$258	0x020e31…
07-28 11:35:07	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	54	97¢	$52	0x0ab481…
07-28 11:05:07	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	48	97¢	$47	0x5abbf8…
07-28 08:05:09	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x408921…
07-28 07:35:06	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x5d38f2…
07-28 04:05:06	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x915b75…
07-26 04:06:01	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	BUY	674	92¢	$618	0x87e2ed…
07-26 04:06:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	Yes	BUY	59	92¢	$54	0xa77b39…
07-26 00:06:15	Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?	No	BUY	713	89¢	$634	0x78cc3a…
07-25 08:06:31	iran full airspace closure by july 27	No	BUY	425	90¢	$384	0x3c2cd6…
07-25 08:06:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	Yes	BUY	670	91¢	$610	0xd83bb8…
07-25 04:06:21	Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	639	93¢	$594	0x15ebce…